The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Urs Max
	And of course: "At present, the UK has a desperate shortage of officials who are trained in negotiating trade agreements". Even if Canada and NZ lend their own negotiators, would any country really want to rely on outsiders for such crucial undertakings? At least for key positions such as the negotiating delegation's leadership, I think you want them to be your own.

This isn't finding the cure for cancer, or sending a man to the moon. I think out of a country of 65 million people, they'll be able to find people capable of negotiating a few trade deals.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This isn't finding the cure for cancer, or sending a man to the moon. I think out of a country of 65 million people, they'll be able to find people capable of negotiating a few trade deals.

This has been openly discussed for months. We need a World class team of negotiators. Currently, we have the equivalent of Yeovil Town with a sloping pitch.

	Quote:
	Government faces worldwide hunt for trade negotiators, experts warn By Peter Spence, Economics Correspondent 3 July 2016 • 6:00am ...A Government that has spent more than four decades outsourcing powers to Brussels will now have to undo the process, choosing to eschew or replace each of the 12,295 EU regulations that directly affect the UK. The challenge threatens to overwhelm the civil service. Even the least challenging route for Brexit – the so-called “Norway option” – would entail the civil service taking back powers over defence, security, justice, agriculture and fisheries. These would be more than enough to chew on for years and each area could be politically toxic to deal with.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...rs-experts-wa/

Brexit visits Zurich:


http://www.siaf.ch/2016/10/17/the-rt...n-major-kg-ch/

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This has been openly discussed for months. We need a World class team of negotiators. Currently, we have the equivalent of Yeovil Town with a sloping pitch.

Now you're overdoing it a bit. Not getting the best possible outcome merely affects hundreds of billions in trade volume each year so who in their right minds would care.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This has been openly discussed for months. We need a World class team of negotiators. Currently, we have the equivalent of Yeovil Town with a sloping pitch. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...rs-experts-wa/

That is all very true but you are two steps too far down the road!

Before anybody can start negotiating for the UK they need to know what is the UK position; UK will be like a new country.

For example FTAs usually include product and quality standards; so for the UK FTA planned with Australia then will UK stay with the EU standards and commit to following them in future?
Or use Australian standards (if they exist?) which might require UK manufacturers to start new production lines?
Or use not yet written UK standards? Who would commit to unknown standards that require Australian manufacturers to start new production lines??

Or for services provision will the negotiators be allowed to commit to automatically providing visas to the essential people supplying services?

But the discussion here, the press and overall is about the economics, but these leaders are not going to be here for much longer to continue these discussions unless they address what is going on.

Look at what happened in Germany yesterday.

It really does defy belief at how some people think. Although they probably think vice versa as well.

On it goes!!!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Now you're overdoing it a bit. Not getting the best possible outcome merely affects hundreds of billions in trade volume each year so who in their right minds would care.

Don't you just wish....

My cousin is a union rep for the Civil Service. She's dealt with so,so many redundancy procedures since 2008. It's almost been a conveyor belt of redundancies for years, so the skilled people we sorely need now, just aren't there. How much is going to cost the government to poach these people from the private sector, or from abroad?

If the procedure was a 5yr plan instead of set at 2yrs, we'd stand a decent chance of getting this done and doing it right.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	marton
	That is all very true but you are two steps too far down the road! Before anybody can start negotiating for the UK they need to know what is the UK position; UK will be like a new country. For example FTAs usually include product and quality standards; so for the UK FTA planned with Australia then will UK stay with the EU standards and commit to following them in future? Or use Australian standards (if they exist?) which might require UK manufacturers to start new production lines? Or use not yet written UK standards? Who would commit to unknown standards that require Australian manufacturers to start new production lines?? Or for services provision will the negotiators be allowed to commit to automatically providing visas to the essential people supplying services?

which is a very good point, going forward I would assume no uk co. will be allowed to stamp the EU standard cert on any of there goods?

[Reb77Br]

This is what Scientists for EU (http://scientistsforeu.uk/about/who-we-are/) say on their Facebook page about the Japanese government's letter:

"You should read the Japanese government letter. As one SfEU follower wrote on Twitter: "Almost seems as though the Japanese govt understands what Brexit means better than the British."

The letter puts all the top negotiating cards in EU hands. Basically saying that if negotiations don't preserve almost everything, then Japanese companies in the UK from pharma, tech and manufacturing will relocate to the EU. It even invites the EU to help make this transfer easier. The Japanese government clearly supports freedom of movement - its companies in the UK rely on both skilled and unskilled labour from the EU. The letter says the UK should preserve EU regulations (awkward for those who would throw off "EU chains") and access to EU research programmes. It also wants the European Medicines Agency to stay in London. That's very unlikely to happen.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7224841.html"


SfEU Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/scientistsf...WSFEED&fref=nf

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	which is a very good point, going forward I would assume no uk co. will be allowed to stamp the EU standard cert on any of there goods?

Why would you say that? As long as the product has been subjected to, and passed the requirements of the norms, then they can use that stamp on their product/packaging.

If the EU comes up with some new regulation then the mfr will decide if it is cost effective to change production and submit the product for testing.

Think of all the imported electronics products which are stamped UL/CSA/EU/SEV etc.

Perhaps I've misunderstood what you mean by "EU standard cert"?

[CorsebouTheReturn]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	This is what Scientists for EU (website: http://scientistsforeu.uk/, who they are: http://scientistsforeu.uk/about/who-we-are/) say on their Facebook page about the Japanese government's letter:

Blablabla...
Sayonara then!

Almost hilarious, some Japaneses trying to influence UK decisions...
I did not realize UK had become such a puss...puppy !

And Japan, let me laugh, did not realize it was a model for immigration... Is it because its population is ageing big time that they allowing themselves to comment on that topic in a foreign country?

So far I only saw 1 who was not negative, it was Obama- A french praising an American, it's like a flash news! He said something like UK was still a friend and should not be punished for brexit.
True, he was against it before, at least he's not backstabbing now, unlike Europeans leaders.

[Urs Max]

Japan's letter is the first time a clear list of requirements has been published by a major player. I think it's well worth the read, find it here.

According to that PDF, Japan firms provide 440k jobs in the EU, half their capital investments in 2015 went to the UK. No longer getting the share it previously did would hurt the UK enough to be visible on a national level, not to mention the message that would send to the rest of the world.

The bullet points are as follows:

[Requests directed at the UK and the EU]
・ maintenance of the current tariff rates and customs clearance procedures;
・ introduction of provisions for cumulative rules of origin;
・ maintenance of the access to workers who are nationals of the UK or the EU;
・ maintenance of the freedom of establishment and the provision of financial services, including the “single passport” system;
・ maintenance of the freedom of cross-border investment and the provision of services as well as the free movement of capital, including that between associated companies;
・ maintenance of the current level of information protection and the free transfer of data;
・ unified protection of intellectual property rights;
・ maintenance of harmonisation of the regulations and standards between the UK and the EU (including the maintenance of established frameworks of mutual recognition and equivalence);
・ securing the UK’s function as a clearing centre for the euro and the location within the UK of EU agencies such as the European Medicines Agency (EMA);
and
・ maintenance of the UK’s access to the EU budget for research and development and participation in the Japan-EU joint research project.

[Additional requests directed at the UK]
・ liberalisation of trade in goods without the burdens of customs duties and procedures;
・ maintenance of access to workers with the necessary skills;
・ maintenance of basic policies regarding the entry of foreign capital;
・ implementation of measures to promote investment;
・ maintenance of the current levels of information protection and the free transfer of datain case the UK establishes its own legislation distinct from the EU’s;
・ ensuring the consistency of regulations and standards between the UK and the EU;
and
・ ensuring that the EU’s research and development budget applies to research institutions in the UK.

[Additional request directed at the EU]
・ provision of transitional arrangements for the single passporting system

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	Before anybody can start negotiating for the UK they need to know what is the UK position; UK will be like a new country.

How so? The UK doesn't start from scratch, it's not as if the UK was a lawless place at the moment or during those two years.

[CorsebouTheReturn]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Japan's letter is the first time a clear list of requirements has been published by a major player. I think it's well worth the read, find it here. おかげでキャプテンのアドバイスは、今あなた自身の問題の代わりに他の人に対処します

Nice reading...erm.

-So it's like leaving the EU but not changing anything, right?

-I thought UK was managed by EU, not by Japan. It's good to know who's leading

-Is it not a bit pedant, coming from Japan, to create that list instead of UK leaders?

I can't wait for UK's leaders to make a friendly list on how to deal with the Diaoyu(Senkaku?) islands, back "home".

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	CorsebouTheReturn
	Blablabla... Sayonara then! Almost hilarious, some Japaneses trying to influence UK decisions... I did not realize UK had become such a puss...puppy !

Opting out of the EU is one thing, but what we witnessed yesterday was the power of globalisation. Try opting out of that!

Over a decade ago, I had a debate with an American guy who insisted that my UK home would be filled with American made products. Being a total geek, I did an inventory of all the black and white goods in my home, and the one and only thing that was American made was my Microsoft XP disc. I was shocked how many items were made in Japan or Korea.

The guy came back with "I bet the car on your drive is made by GM." so I sent him a photo of my Mazda.


With so many non-EU countries having an HQ or major production plant in the UK as their 'in' into the EU economy, I feel this is where we'll be hit the hardest. Other Global powers have the choice to see our departure as a blessing or a handicap. Personally, what I don't want to see is the UK become China's puppy, like many countries in Africa have.


I was reminded of this quote from Napoleon about China the other day, after seeing that a friend has painted it onto his, soon to be born, daughter's nursery wall.

"Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will move mountains”

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	This is what Scientists for EU (http://scientistsforeu.uk/about/who-we-are/) say on their Facebook page about the Japanese government's letter: "You should read the Japanese government letter. As one SfEU follower wrote on Twitter: "Almost seems as though the Japanese govt understands what Brexit means better than the British." The letter puts all the top negotiating cards in EU hands. Basically saying that if negotiations don't preserve almost everything, then Japanese companies in the UK from pharma, tech and manufacturing will relocate to the EU. It even invites the EU to help make this transfer easier. The Japanese government clearly supports freedom of movement - its companies in the UK rely on both skilled and unskilled labour from the EU. The letter says the UK should preserve EU regulations (awkward for those who would throw off "EU chains") and access to EU research programmes. It also wants the European Medicines Agency to stay in London. That's very unlikely to happen. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7224841.html" SfEU Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/scientistsf...WSFEED&fref=nf

Funny thing is they said the same thing 24 years ago when Britain pulled out of the ERM........ And Japan has been in a recession for longer than that, so the Japanese experts don't have a clue how to manager their own economy.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Opting out of the EU is one thing, but what we witnessed yesterday was the power of globalisation. Try opting out of that! Over a decade ago, I had a debate with an American guy who insisted that my UK home would be filled with American made products. Being a total geek, I did an inventory of all the black and white goods in my home, and the one and only thing that was American made was my Microsoft XP disc. I was shocked how many items were made in Japan or Korea. The guy came back with "I bet the car on your drive is made by GM." so I sent him a photo of my Mazda. With so many non-EU countries having an HQ or major production plant in the UK as their 'in' into the EU economy, I feel this is where we'll be hit the hardest. Other Global powers have the choice to see our departure as a blessing or a handicap. Personally, what I don't want to see is the UK become China's puppy, like many countries in Africa have. I was reminded of this quote from Napoleon about China the other day, after seeing that a friend has painted it onto his, soon to be born, daughter's nursery wall. "Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will move mountains”

There is a very good reason the Japanese manufacture Cars & very little else in the UK / Europe. Cars have a 10% tariff, electronics varies from as little as 0%.......

Video cameras with inbuilt recorders had a 60% tariff up until about 10 years ago to protect Thompson / Philips. That particular tariff has cost me personally more than I ever saved by free movement of all other goods in 30 odd years as an adult.

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	There is a very good reason the Japanese manufacture Cars & very little else in the UK / Europe. Cars have a 10% tariff, electronics varies from as little as 0%.......

Maybe I misheard it, but I thought they said on BBC TV the other day that reverting to WTO rules would mean that a 10% tariff would be imposed on cars, thus wiping out Japanese car manufacturers' profit margins in the UK and making it more worthwhile for them to relocate to the EU.

Ian Duncan Smith was interviewed on Radio 4 yesterday lunchtime and said he was in favour of reverting to WTO rules. As far as I remember, he didn't mention the car industry.

	Quote:	marton
	That is all very true but you are two steps too far down the road! Before anybody can start negotiating for the UK they need to know what is the UK position; UK will be like a new country. For example FTAs usually include product and quality standards; so for the UK FTA planned with Australia then will UK stay with the EU standards and commit to following them in future? Or use Australian standards (if they exist?) which might require UK manufacturers to start new production lines? Or use not yet written UK standards? Who would commit to unknown standards that require Australian manufacturers to start new production lines?? Or for services provision will the negotiators be allowed to commit to automatically providing visas to the essential people supplying services?

If only there was a set of standards already in place that would set conformity of quality for goods and services in a transparent way

British Standards

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Maybe I misheard it, but I thought they said on BBC TV the other day that reverting to WTO rules would mean that a 10% tariff would be imposed on cars, thus wiping out Japanese car manufacturers' profit margins in the UK and making it more worthwhile for them to relocate to the EU. Ian Duncan Smith was interviewed on Radio 4 yesterday lunchtime and said he was in favour of reverting to WTO rules. As far as I remember, he didn't mention the car industry.

Perhaps you did not notice that the value of the £ fell more than 10% since the Brexit vote, so those Japanese British built cars sold in Europe will make an even bigger profit after a 10% tariff than the status quo 3 months ago.

If Brexit is cancelled & the £ rises 15% those companies will be worse off........ Journalists usually miss the point, that what counts to companies is net PROFIT, nothing else is of much interest.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	CorsebouTheReturn
	-So it's like leaving the EU but not changing anything, right?

Looks like it, just like what would be accomplished with Brexit and joining the EEA.

	Quote:	CorsebouTheReturn
	-I thought UK was managed by EU, not by Japan. It's good to know who's leading

This is about what their businesses need, nobody forces the UK to follow suit. Just know that the 1% of foreign-owned UK companies create 29% of domestic gross value added outside the financial sector according to your ONS. So don't complain if unemployment starts to rise if they leave.

	Quote:	CorsebouTheReturn
	-Is it not a bit pedant, coming from Japan, to create that list instead of UK leaders?

I suggest you ask your leaders that, including the proponents of the Remain and Leave campaigns.