The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Going off slightly, I watched a tv report with Martin Lewis today where he talked about how interest rates on UK savings accounts have been decimated, and that the Nat West ISA rate has dropped to 0.01%. Santander 123 account is halving it's interest rates to 1.5% from November, and that will be the best rate around. Where are the good news stories coming from Brexit that we were promised?

You live in Switzerland. Have you checked the interest rates on the savings accounts here?

I get the sense you folks imagine Brexit as a total disconnection between the UK and Europe. At worse, it only means more paperwork and tariffs.

For example, CE is a set of public domain directives a manufacturer can choose to conform a product to, then sell the product in the EU. It is conformity per product. What does the UK have to do with it?

It's not quite a cold war and trade embargo between the UK and the EU. Aren't you folks a bit exaggerating about it all?

	Quote:	Phos
	I get the sense you folks imagine Brexit as a total disconnection between the UK and Europe. At worse, it only means more paperwork and tariffs. For example, CE is a set of public domain directives a manufacturer can choose to conform a product to, then sell the product in the EU. It is conformity per product. What does the UK have to do with it? It's not quite a cold war and trade embargo between the UK and the EU. Aren't you folks a bit exaggerating about it all?

But that's a bit of an over-simplistic view.

Maybe it's true of the direct impact of an exit but it doesn't take account of the knock on effects further down the line, which don't seem to be known by anyone right now. Some international industry leaders are willing to gather all their facilities and find another base while others see it as an opportunity. Whichever way you look though, big industry is keeping a close eye on it which is a good indication that it's a complex issue.

Personally, I really hope it all works out and the UK thrives as I've got family and friends there and I'd hate to see their quality of life take a nose-dive.

	Quote:
	But that's a bit of an over-simplistic view. Maybe it's true of the direct impact of an exit but it doesn't take account of the knock on effects further down the line, which don't seem to be known by anyone right now. Some international industry leaders are willing to gather all their facilities and find another base while others see it as an opportunity. Whichever way you look though, big industry is keeping a close eye on it which is a good indication that it's a complex issue. Personally, I really hope it all works out and the UK thrives as I've got family and friends there and I'd hate to see their quality of life take a nose-dive.

Well, one sure way its not going to work out is if people decide they are too lazy to work at it. At that point, its really more of an attitudinal problem. Which is conceivable, given that most of the Brexit overreaction is merely attitude.

At some point, people do get to choose whether they retain their attitudes, or get to work and prosper. I'm sure those who get to work will do just fine.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	I get the sense you folks imagine Brexit as a total disconnection between the UK and Europe. At worse, it only means more paperwork and tariffs. For example, CE is a set of public domain directives a manufacturer can choose to conform a product to, then sell the product in the EU. It is conformity per product. What does the UK have to do with it? It's not quite a cold war and trade embargo between the UK and the EU. Aren't you folks a bit exaggerating about it all?

This.

And then there is also the assumption that the rest of the EU is going to stay as it is or get even cosier. There are big changes ahead, some of which may have to do with Brexit but many of which are coming independently of the Brexit: Immigration, unemployment, geopolitical challenges, Russia, Turkey, US presidentials etc. The cosy years are quite definitely over. Companies who think, if we relocate to the RestOfEU we can switch off our risk radar and go back to autopliot are making a big mistake.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	You live in Switzerland. Have you checked the interest rates on the savings accounts here?

Absolutely! I remember sitting in a side office at the bank on my first full day here, whilst the clerk explained the different accounts open to us and their interest rates. My jaw was on the floor! And now the UK has parity with that... That's nothing to celebrate.

	Quote:
	Some international industry leaders are willing to gather all their facilities and find another base while others see it as an opportunity. Whichever way you look though, big industry is keeping a close eye on it which is a good indication that it's a complex issue. Personally, I really hope it all works out and the UK thrives as I've got family and friends there and I'd hate to see their quality of life take a nose-dive.

Exactly!

I know my own employer was investigating relocation of some UK based services before I left the UK in November. They already had bases in over 150 countries and had shifted certain key departments to India, so it would be an easy excercise for them.

	Quote:
	Some international industry leaders are willing to gather all their facilities and find another base while others see it as an opportunity. Whichever way you look though, big industry is keeping a close eye on it which is a good indication that it's a complex issue. Personally, I really hope it all works out and the UK thrives as I've got family and friends there and I'd hate to see their quality of life take a nose-dive.

Sure changes bring realignment of industries. That is just normal. The same thing can happen for a myriad of other economic issues apart from Brexit. What Brexit allows the UK to do is realign according to what is in its best interest. Take a look at France, Italy, Spain and Greece. These are countries that do not have the leeway to adjust because of their EU membership. These are also countries that have had decades of stagnation with problems they cannot fix because of their EU membership. I don't see how its better to be helplessly stagnant than to have some agility and sovereignty over one's national problems.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	Sure changes bring realignment of industries. That is just normal. The same thing can happen for a myriad of other economic issues apart from Brexit. What Brexit allows the UK to do is realign according to what is in its best interest. Take a look at France, Italy, Spain and Greece. These are countries that do not have the leeway to adjust because of their EU membership. These are also countries that have had decades of stagnation with problems they cannot fix because of their EU membership. I don't see how its better to be helplessly stagnant than to have some agility and sovereignty over one's national problems.

If it wasn't for the economic growth in the Visegràd states the overall EU growth would probably be negative.

And yet Merkel is making all sorts of threats towards them.

So she's sending the message that success is not even something worth striving for in today's EU.

	Quote:	Phos
	Well, one sure way its not going to work out is if people decide they are too lazy to work at it. At that point, its really more of an attitudinal problem. Which is conceivable, given that most of the Brexit overreaction is merely attitude.

Ah, the media is loving all the stories of "overreaction"

I think the general population is just getting on with it. Laziness is irrelevant because we would have had that whichever way the vote went, and laziness spans the political and cultural divide anyway.

	Quote:	amogles
	If it wasn't for the economic growth in the Visegràd states the overall EU growth would probably be negative. And thus Merkel is making all sorts of threats towards them. So she's sending the message that success is not even something worth striving for in today's EU.

That sounds about like the theme that comes from Merkel and the EU: "Keep Calm and Die Out!"

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	Because currently the UK has all its laws (like FMOP), Standards, etc. either from the EU or aligned with the EU. One of the leave campaign promises was "We free our businesses from damaging EU laws and regulations" So which laws and regulations will remain and which will no longer be in place, the UK negotiators will need to build from a firm legal foundation?

That means moving from the well defined current situation to another well defined situation. Not anything like a new country, which starts from scratch.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	I get the sense you folks imagine Brexit as a total disconnection between the UK and Europe. At worse, it only means more paperwork and tariffs. For example, CE is a set of public domain directives a manufacturer can choose to conform a product to, then sell the product in the EU. It is conformity per product. What does the UK have to do with it? It's not quite a cold war and trade embargo between the UK and the EU. Aren't you folks a bit exaggerating about it all?

Well if the UK businesses will follow all the EU regulations like the shape of bananas then that destroys one of the reasons given for leaving.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Mikers
	That good news for mortgage holders. Ar there more mortgage holders than savers ?

Guess so, as money from savings accounts does not generally get handed out as mortgages. That money comes from the currency banks.

So low interest rates help more people than they harm. At least on the immediate level. You can debate the broader and more far reaching consequences of course and maybe come to a different conclusion.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That means moving from the well defined current situation to another well defined situation. Not anything like a new country, which starts from scratch.

Let us hope the new situation will be well defined. Currently we just hear platitudes about national consensus; since it seems that UK Parliament will be not allowed to vote on Brexit then it would be nice to know the process to be used to build consensus.
I hope it will be more open and democratic than the usual decision making over port and cigars in exclusive gentlemens clubs

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Well if the UK businesses will follow all the EU regulations like the shape of bananas then that destroys one of the reasons given for leaving.

If the UK wants to build its economy on exporting bananas to the EU, that is indeed a concern. Somebody should warn Boris.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Sure changes bring realignment of industries. That is just normal. The same thing can happen for a myriad of other economic issues apart from Brexit. What Brexit allows the UK to do is realign according to what is in its best interest. Take a look at France, Italy, Spain and Greece. These are countries that do not have the leeway to adjust because of their EU membership. These are also countries that have had decades of stagnation with problems they cannot fix because of their EU membership. I don't see how its better to be helplessly stagnant than to have some agility and sovereignty over one's national problems.

But other EU countries are not stagnant so EU membership is not the problem
Look at Ireland as a glowing example!

[snapsterone]

	Quote:	marton
	Well if the UK businesses will follow all the EU regulations like the shape of bananas then that destroys one of the reasons given for leaving.

The shape of bananas, like the curve of the cucumbers was a story made up by Boris during his time as a Telegraph hack in Brussels.

[Reb77Br]

Another pro-Brexit MP peddling myths about the EU.


Sir Bill Cash, MP, Falsely Claims the EU Outlawed Imperial Measures in the UK

[yacek]

So I've heard from a good analyst of a large corp that EU has to screw UK as much as they; otherwise populations from EU southern states might rebel if UK does well.

	Quote:	yacek
	So I've heard from a good analyst of a large corp that EU has to screw UK as much as they; otherwise populations from EU southern states might rebel if UK does well.

That has been publicly stated. But in doing so, the EU will be hurting itself more than they will be hurting the UK. So it comes down to a test of rationality. And here you will see what the EU is made of. An unbiased perspective can better see just how credible and valid the EU is. As for notions of protectionism, it will be quite clear that protectionism is coming from the EU, and not the UK.