The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	Seeing as the UK produces almost nothing in terms of farm produce and imports everything, the food costs would rise substantially. The poor would be especially hit by that more than anyone else.

Erm what a load of rubbish, the UK has a reasonably large arable and livestock large faring industry.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Erm what a load of rubbish, the UK has a reasonably large arable and livestock large faring industry.

I should hope so, given the claims by McD's, et al that they all use 100% British stuff.

The EU can't get it right anyway. First they had Set Aside because too much food was being produced leading to the infamous food mountains, then they cancelled that to bring production up again due to food shortages. Now they're talking of a similar scheme called "Greening" which will probably push farmers into overproduction again.

I seriously doubt "the public" is demanding things like strawberries all year round, that's just supermarket hype. The public will adapt as it always has to what is available in which season - or pay through the nose if they want it out of season.

You can't have it both ways. You either have cheap food and drive your farmers out of business or you pay the proper price. At the moment we aren't which is why farmers rely on the EU subsidies so much.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Do you think lower tariffs on food import will make any difference to cost in the shop. I can't see shops reducing prices just because it's cheaper to buy.

Supermarkets have strong competition and low margins. So yes, I do expect them to lower prices.

Also there will likely be a shift from imported to domestically produced goods which would further support the farming sector and help trade balance.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	On TV they said the UK farmers today are really dependent on the EU farm subsidies. If Britain leaves, then the subsidy money will have to be found from somewhere, or the farms will go under faster than they are nowadays. Britain's farms are very efficient but the UK still needs to import about 40% of food, net. http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html If the UK leaves the EU, it will need the supermarkets to start paying a fair price for the farm produce, so the food prices will likely rise by the equivalent loss of the EU farm subsidies.

I didn't check current figures, but last time I did I think the UK was a net payer to EU. If UK leaves those moneys are free to be distributed directly to, among others, UK farmers instead being distributed via Brussels.

	Quote:	marton
	According to this report here UK farming would collapse after Brexit. Currently UK farmers receive around euro 3bn from the EU which is 60% of their income. It is not clearly stated anywhere if the UK Govt. would replace this subsidy. If tariffs on imports were dropped then this would increase the financial pressure on UK farmers.

This seems quite alarmist - but hey, it's a good headline for the article, innit.

As the article itself states
"They [the UK farmers] would lose most of this [the 3bln in subsidies] at a stroke unless the British government guaranteed compensating support of one kind or another, and so far it has clarified nothing. "

Of course there would be compensatory reactions by UK government.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I didn't check current figures, but last time I did I think the UK was a net payer to EU. If UK leaves those moneys are free to be distributed directly to, among others, UK farmers instead being distributed via Brussels. This seems quite alarmist - but hey, it's a good headline for the article, innit. As the article itself states "They [the UK farmers] would lose most of this [the 3bln in subsidies] at a stroke unless the British government guaranteed compensating support of one kind or another, and so far it has clarified nothing. " Of course there would be compensatory reactions by UK government.

Quite true Urs Max.

"The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.

In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.

Each year the UK gets an instant discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £5 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £18 billion in contributions."

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-m...ee-55-million/

That £8.5 billion would more than cover any loss to farmers on leaving the EU.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Quite true Urs Max. "The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back. In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion. Each year the UK gets an instant discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £5 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £18 billion in contributions." https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-m...ee-55-million/ That £8.5 billion would more than cover any loss to farmers on leaving the EU.

With luck the government will just cut costs by £18 Billion & leave it at that. Austerity is supposed to be the name of the game.

The Farmers became very rich from the EU, no reason for them to stay so rich.

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Quite true Urs Max. "The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back. In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion. Each year the UK gets an instant discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £5 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £18 billion in contributions." https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-m...ee-55-million/ That £8.5 billion would more than cover any loss to farmers on leaving the EU.

This is not quite correct. The EU makes payments directly to the private sector, such as research grants. In 2013, these were worth an estimated £1.4 billion, if this was the same in 2015 then the EU spending on UK would be increased to 5.9 Billion not 4.5.

[Troublawesome]

You all assume that it's just a matter of money in/money out as if the rest of the game will stay the same.

EU workers will leave for greener pastures as they love freedom of movement, talent will become even harder to find and companies who need to be based in EU will move out. Other countries will pounce like crazy to take market share out of the UK, once in a lifetime opportunity for them.

Throw in the mix another Scottish referendum after Brexit and the UK is going to be in a deep recession that it's not easily going to get out of.

Do not fool yourselves that there's just some balancing the books and economy will be booming again. If Brexit happens all bets are off as no one can predict what's next.

P.S In my opinion the UK will face a tsunami of hostility. To make an example out of it and avoid giving precedence to Switzerland, Spain Greece etc.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	If Brexit happens all bets are off as no one can predict what's next.

I think this is the only correct answer to the question of what will happen. Simply because nobody knows how follow-on arrangements and treaties will look like.

And yet you predict doom and gloom. Go figure

[Troublawesome]

Same can be said about deciding to jump off a cliff, you can't know for sure but it doesn't mean you need to do it. Anyway, I can't see Brexit happening by a long shot, like the Scottish referendum, people are all talk but at the booth reality kicks in.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Quite true Urs Max. "The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.

Sorry Medeea, but this is a bit shortsighted. It seems that most of us can't see the wood for the trees.
How much more does the UK gain from free movement of goods and capital within EU? There are a lot of other advantages that are worth considering because once the UK is out there will be a lot of things they will not benefit anymore.

There's no such a thing in international relations as reciprocity.

[lewton]

I think in the last few pages we have more or less the same arguments from both sides.

I have a new question: do you personalyl know any person that is planning to vote who has recently changed their minds (from yes to no or from no to yes)? If you do and you've discussed with them, what made them change their mind?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	Same can be said about deciding to jump off a cliff, you can't know for sure but it doesn't mean you need to do it. Anyway, I can't see Brexit happening by a long shot, like the Scottish referendum, people are all talk but at the booth reality kicks in.

When you jump off a cliff you know the 'rules' (aka physical laws) that determine the outcome. Thus you can predict the result with reasonable certainty, particularly as there are (hundreds of) thousands precedents.

In case of a Brexit you don't know what will happen as you neither know the 'rules' (aka international treaties aka international law) during the transistion nor those post-transition.

	Quote:	greenmount
	There's no such a thing in international relations as reciprocity.

I think that's wrong. If the people of Greenmountistan were granted free access to Ursmaxistan, the government of Ursmaxistan wouldn't grant these rights without reciprocal rights granted simultaneously.

	Quote:	greenmount
	How much more does the UK gain from free movement of goods and capital within EU? There are a lot of other advantages that are worth considering because once the UK is out there will be a lot of things they will not benefit anymore.

A good question, albeit one nobody knows a realistic and fair answer to.

But there are perhaps comparable undertakings:
Look up the benefits of TTIP, the secret(!) transatlantic treaty between USA and EU that's being negotiated these days and has so for multiple years. I think this gives at least an idea of the magnitude of the Brexit's effect. The most often quoted benefit is that, according to a CEPR study, the average 4-person household is expected to gain €525 in disposable income each year. This number originates from the proponents of the treaty, thus if anything it is too high rather than too low.

[Wallabies]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	With luck the government will just cut costs by £18 Billion & leave it at that. Austerity is supposed to be the name of the game. The Farmers became very rich from the EU, no reason for them to stay so rich.

At least until they get screwed by the big supermarket chains screwing them down on what they get paid. It is Tescos that will screw the farmers not Brexit

Only those farms that merge and form larger cooperatives and the like will survive without the massive subsidies of the EU forcing them out or increasing imports from cheaper locations such as the EU

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Sorry Medeea, but this is a bit shortsighted. It seems that most of us can't see the wood for the trees. How much more does the UK gain from free movement of goods and capital within EU? There are a lot of other advantages that are worth considering because once the UK is out there will be a lot of things they will not benefit anymore. There's no such a thing in international relations as reciprocity.

I understand that greenmount, but I was replying to Troublawesome and marton specific comments regarding Brexit and the effect it would have on UK farmers.

And you have to look at how Britain leaving will affect the EU economy too. Having just returned from the UK the number of foreign lorries delivering goods is growing all the time, it seemed there were almost as many foreign as UK registered vehicles on the roads. So if Britain votes to leave and the EU gets petulant and refuses to negotiate new trade agreements that's going to hurt EU countries because they'll have lost an outlet for their goods. Everyone's looking at Britain being out and saying how much it will hurt if we can't negotiate with the EU, but no one's talking about how badly the EU may be hit if it loses the UK market.

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	EU workers will leave for greener pastures...

What greener pastures? Spain? Portugal? Greece? Estonia? Lol.

[Sbrinz]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-36070761

A Treasury analysis on the cost of an EU exit will say UK national income could be 6% smaller - the equivalent of £4,300 a year per household - by 2030.

The most often quoted benefit is that, according to a CEPR study, the average 4-person household is expected to gain €525 in disposable income each year.

So will it be plus €525 or minus £4'300 per year? It is impossible to decide who is lying, isn't it?

[amogles]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Sorry Medeea, but this is a bit shortsighted. It seems that most of us can't see the wood for the trees. How much more does the UK gain from free movement of goods and capital within EU? There are a lot of other advantages that are worth considering because once the UK is out there will be a lot of things they will not benefit anymore. There's no such a thing in international relations as reciprocity.

Who says that a Brexit would terminate FMOP?

We can continue letting in people who we want or need. If the EU wants to stop them coming to Britain they would have to build a fence to stop them getting out.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Sbrienz
	So will it be plus €525 or minus £4'300 per year? It is impossible to decide who is lying, isn't it?

Shoud this be referring to my post, if you read closely you'll notice that the inverse of entering TTIP (which would be the quivalent of a Brexit) would actually come with a cost of €525, according to that study.

Is there such a thing as lying in a study? In my mind in most cases that's equivalent to calling somebody a liar who simply voices his reasonably founded opinion.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	amogles
	Who says that a Brexit would terminate FMOP?

Well, don't think everything will stay as it is. I think this would be only fair, one can't have the cake and eat it.
You put restrictions on freedom of the movement of persons, we put restrictions on freedom of the movement of goods and capitals. Fair.