The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Phos
	-Visigrad states are about to embark on a nationalist movement around this same issue of FMOP and immigration.

Strangely enough, in this declaration from after the refugee crisis started, they support it quite strongly
http://www.visegradgroup.eu/calendar...f-the-151221-1
"However, as the Visegrád Group countries consider the freedom of movement one of the fundamental values of the European Union, proposals regarding this area remain the most sensitive issue for us. In this respect, we will not support any solutions which would be discriminatory or limit free movement."

In this article from June, their leaders want to preserve it
https://www.ft.com/content/22070daa-...6-a4a71e8140b0

Its simply deluded to believe that a countries whose citizens are benefiting a lot from being able to migrate freely to richer Western Europe are strongly in support this right to be taken away.

Of course, if one has no clue what EU free movement is really about, its easy to miss that what they strongly oppose is mandatory refugee quotas, which has nothing to do with the EU freedom of movement.

The Leave lie, that equates freedom of movement with being forced to accept refugees, continues.

	Quote:	Kosti
	The Leave lie, that equates freedom of movement with being forced to accept refugees, continues.

Its not really from the Leave side we've been hearing this rhetoric from. We've been hearing it from Eurocrats and Comrade Merkel, even as recently as last week. They have pretty declared that they don't respect national borders. From the horse's mouth.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	The case they laid out and the statements they make clearly puts Juncker on the spot for his intransigence in ordering EVERYBODY not to talk to the UK. Which is truly what is keeping this process from moving forward, not May's government. I believe there was a BBC link to this group. Unfortunately, I don't recall what they were calling themselves.

"Juncker on the spot for his intransigence in ordering EVERYBODY not to talk to the UK" Not everybody, Juncker created a team to negotiate Brexit led by ex EU Commissioner Michel Barnier.

Quote "Michel Barnier on Brexit: We’ll strike a deal
Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator says he is ready to begin talks ‘tomorrow.’"

Source

Seems sensible to me that the EU negotiations are managed by one team.

Better than the confusing UK approach where Brexit is led by May and three other Ministers (maybe four today!! )who, according to UK newspapers, seem to be having "turf wars" and do not appear to have a common policy!

Source

Source

Interesting quote from the ft yesterday! "On a visit to London, Steven Ciobo, the Australian trade minister said it would be at least two-and-a-half years before formal Australia-UK talks could begin, as Britain would have to complete its exit from the EU first.
His message was that Australia can make no commitments until they know what the Brits have signed up to with Brussels.
Ditto many other states."

	Quote:	marton
	"Juncker on the spot for his intransigence in ordering EVERYBODY not to talk to the UK" Not everybody, Juncker created a team to negotiate Brexit led by ex EU Commissioner Michel Barnier.

That team is to negotiate after Article 50. Junker ordered all his officials not to discuss until then. He also ordered all member states to do that same. Therein lies the point of contention. Juncker has no legal authority to order member states not to talk to the UK. Its purely prejudice and could very well have no legal standing.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Strangely enough, in this declaration from after the refugee crisis started, they support it quite strongly http://www.visegradgroup.eu/calendar...f-the-151221-1 "However, as the Visegrád Group countries consider the freedom of movement one of the fundamental values of the European Union, proposals regarding this area remain the most sensitive issue for us. In this respect, we will not support any solutions which would be discriminatory or limit free movement." In this article from June, their leaders want to preserve it https://www.ft.com/content/22070daa-...6-a4a71e8140b0 Its simply deluded to believe that a countries whose citizens are benefiting a lot from being able to migrate freely to richer Western Europe are strongly in support this right to be taken away.

You've also got to look into why it is important to them.

The Visegard countries are coming out of a deep recession. Their domestic industry was ravaged by the fall of the iron curtain as they were unable to compete with the vastly more productive and efficient western competition. Those comapnies that did survive were often wrecked in incompetent privatization attempts. The result was weak currencies and high unemployment combined with a high level of education and training which made it both attractive and viable for large numbers of people to go to places like the UK to look for work.

However, the pendulum is slowly swinging back. The Visegard economies are recovering. In Hunagry unemplyment is down from something like 20% in 2010 to something like 6% today. House prices are going up like crazy too. Maybe FMOP still matters very much today, but give it another 5 years or so and the flow of FMOP may actually reverse and people will be going into those countries to fill job vacancies. Then they will be in a position to dictate the terms.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	That team is to negotiate after Article 50. Junker ordered all his officials not to discuss until then. He also ordered all member states to do that same. Therein lies the point of contention. Juncker has no legal authority to order member states not to talk to the UK. Its purely prejudice and could very well have no legal standing.

"That team is to negotiate after Article 50." So the delay is due to the UK not the EU!

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	You've also got to look into why it is important to them. The Visegard countries are coming out of a deep recession. Their domestic industry was ravaged by the fall of the iron curtain as they were unable to compete with the vastly more productive and efficient western competition. Those comapnies that did survive were often wrecked in incompetent privatization attempts. The result was weak currencies and high unemployment combined with a high level of education and training which made it both attractive and viable for large numbers of people to go to places like the UK to look for work. However, the pendulum is slowly swinging back. The Visegard economies are recovering. In Hunagry unemplyment is down from something like 20% in 2010 to something like 6% today. House prices are going up like crazy too. Maybe FMOP still matters very much today, but give it another 5 years or so and the flow of FMOP may actually reverse and people will be going into those countries to fill job vacancies. Then they will be in a position to dictate the terms.

"In Hunagry unemployment is down from something like 20% in 2010 to something like 6% today." Of course, they used freedom of movement to get jobs in other EU countries!
Number of Hungarians working abroad nearly quadruples since 2010!
Source (in 2013)

	Quote:	marton
	"That team is to negotiate after Article 50." So the delay is due to the UK not the EU!

I suppose if you drink their kool-aid.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	amogles
	You've also got to look into why it is important to them. The Visegard countries are coming out of a deep recession. Their domestic industry was ravaged by the fall of the iron curtain as they were unable to compete with the vastly more productive and efficient western competition. Those comapnies that did survive were often wrecked in incompetent privatization attempts. The result was weak currencies and high unemployment combined with a high level of education and training which made it both attractive and viable for large numbers of people to go to places like the UK to look for work. However, the pendulum is slowly swinging back. The Visegard economies are recovering. In Hunagry unemplyment is down from something like 20% in 2010 to something like 6% today. House prices are going up like crazy too. Maybe FMOP still matters very much today, but give it another 5 years or so and the flow of FMOP may actually reverse and people will be going into those countries to fill job vacancies. Then they will be in a position to dictate the terms.

In five / ten / fifteen years, anything is possible.
But right now, they are strongly for free movement to be preserved, and claims of a "nationalist movement" to get rid of it are nonsense.

So, to get rid of free movement, perhaps Brexit should have been voted upon when more Brits wanted to go to Hungary,
than Hungarians wanting to come to the UK.

But in that case methinks there would be a HExit vote happening, not a Brexit vote.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	"In Hunagry unemployment is down from something like 20% in 2010 to something like 6% today." Of course, they used freedom of movement to get jobs in other EU countries! Number of Hungarians working abroad nearly quadruples since 2010! Source (in 2013)

and that would explain rising house prices?

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	I suppose if you drink their kool-aid.

You think the EU is the one delaying invoking Article 50?

The European Parliament today appointed Guy Verhofstadt as their representative on Brexit. This Brexit negotiation will have to be held in somewhere large like a concert hall.

I agree that Juncker ordered his people not to negotiate with the UK but what is your source for claiming he also ordered member states not to?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Kosti
	So, to get rid of free movement, perhaps Brexit should have been voted upon when more Brits wanted to go to Hungary, than Hungarians wanting to come to the UK. But in that case methinks there would be a HExit vote happening, not a Brexit vote.

Yes, achieveing something in politics is definietly a question of recognizing the right time window to go for it rather than tilting at windmills because maybe 20 years ago your demands did make sense.

The days of Delors, Mitterand and Kohl are over. This is something the likes of Merkel and Juncker have misunderstood.

	Quote:	Kosti
	In five / ten / fifteen years, anything is possible. But right now, they are strongly for free movement to be preserved, and claims of a "nationalist movement" to get rid of it are nonsense. So, to get rid of free movement, perhaps Brexit should have been voted upon when more Brits wanted to go to Hungary, than Hungarians wanting to come to the UK. But in that case methinks there would be a HExit vote happening, not a Brexit vote.

The stated purpose of FMOP was the free movement of workers, not refugees. The diktats to impose distribution of refugees to Visigrad states, which don't want them, nor where refugees want to go, is the point of contention. The EU is misusing and reinterpreting FMOP on the fly.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	and that would explain rising house prices?

Ex pat Hungarians sending money home

According to Google the price rises are mostly due to the Govt. improving conditions for home loans. Plus a non-refundable subsidy, the family housing allowance (CSOK) became available from July 1, 2015. It can be used for buying new- and used homes, for apartment expansions, and for home construction.
They also lowered VAT on new property from 27% to 5% starting soon which probably explains why the prices have stopped rising

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Phos
	The stated purpose of FMOP was the free movement of workers, not refugees. The diktats to impose distribution of refugees to Visigrad states, which don't want them, nor where refugees want to go, is the point of contention. The EU is misusing and reinterpreting FMOP on the fly.

The EU is not imposing refugee quotas under free movement.

Saying that it is doing so under free movement, again and again, will not make it true.

Edit: Currently there is no basis for the EU to impose mandatory quotas, hence the Visegrad countries are able to successfully oppose the quotas.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Why would they need any public discussion? The people voted & thats where the public discussion ends.

If you go into a restaurant and order turf 'n' surf and a side of chips / fries, then the waitress comes back with sausage and mash with a prawn cocktail side, you're going to have issue with that and rightly so.

	Quote:	amogles
	you couldn't make it up.

I could easily have predicted that. What you couldn't make up was the last two weeks of June as a whole.

You like to emphasis 'bitter' and 'losers'. These words do not show in the Thesaurus under 'anxious', 'concerned', 'betrayed' or 'excluded'.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Cant be difficult to predict what people want..... I don't see how this is so complicated. Only the Swiss would vote to increase petrol prices & speeding fines.

It's complicated because political awareness and understanding in the UK is not as ingrained in the populous as it is here in Switzerland, and I believe, in the US also. Only a year ago, many British people would have said...

"I don't get involved in politics because I don't understand it."

"Why bother voting when they're all con men."

Some of the most politically vocal / critical people I know, do not vote and didn't vote in the referendum. They firmly believe it's all rigged and we're all brainwashed by religion, chem trails and the media.

Swiss people are raised with the belief that it is their right and responsibility to vote in several referendums per annum, and that the results are legally binding.

American's are raised with the very real importance of voting and, at least, taking an interest so that they can make an informed decision. They may be on their second PhD before they can fully understand the American electoral system, but I feel they have a better grasp of the responsibilities of citzenship that your average Brit.


One of the biggest problems with the EU referendum, and I am guilty of not realising this until a few weeks into the campaign, is that there were a number of different campaign groups on each side of the debate. So, it was completely possible to deplore Farage and everything he stood for, yet still be in support of the official Leave campaign, which Farage was not a member of, and which held a number of different stances to his campaign.

A friend described the situation we find ourselves as, imagine if the US voted Republican, Democrat or Independent 6mths ago. The winning party would then randomly chose whoever they wanted as President.


A second referendum once the details of the pre-Brexit agreement were known, would be the like...
Once you know which US party had won, the whole nation voted again on which candidate of the winning party should be elected as President. That would be the inclusive thing to do...

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Ex pat Hungarians sending money home According to Google the price rises are mostly due to the Govt. improving conditions for home loans. Plus a non-refundable subsidy, the family housing allowance (CSOK) became available from July 1, 2015. It can be used for buying new- and used homes, for apartment expansions, and for home construction. They also lowered VAT on new property from 27% to 5% starting soon which probably explains why the prices have stopped rising

That contributes, yes, but it's also the beginning of change. There is already a shortage of professionals in certain sectors including IT. The main reason people leave Hunagry has already shifted from not being able to find a job to being unhappy with the salary offered. Maybe raising salaries will hurt Hunagry's ability to compete but that's how economies balance. One step at a time.

Cuts to hosing taxes don't occur in a vaccum by the way. They will accelarate the already crazy building boom which is also creating jobs etc etc.

	Quote:	Kosti
	Saying that it is doing so under free movement, again and again, will not make it true.

That's the bit I had trouble with. While the media are not categorically linking refugees with the free movement of people, they are not really doing anything to set the record straight either.

It's almost as if they are keeping the myth alive just to be able to pump out more stories to sell copy.

It would only count under the "free movement of people" if the refugees were given citizenship of one other of the EU member states and they then "moved freely around the EU". Which is a bit far fetched.

[Kosti]

	Quote:
	That's the bit I had trouble with. While the media are not categorically linking refugees with the free movement of people, they are not really doing anything to set the record straight either. It's almost as if they are keeping the myth alive just to be able to pump out more stories to sell copy. It would only count under the "free movement of people" if the refugees were given citizenship of one other of the EU member states and they then "moved freely around the EU". Which is a bit far fetched.

The Leavers certainly did link refugees with EU freedom of movement,
and frankly, I dont think areas that swung the vote see much of difference between EU migrants and refugees. They are all foreigners.



No country is "giving" refugees citizenship, but am sure that innuendo / story is also doing nicely out there in the right wing media.

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	marton
	The European Parliament today appointed Guy Verhofstadt as their representative on Brexit.

His Facebook page announces the appointment with a photo of him apparently talking to the media standing next to a Smeg fridge in the colours of the Union Jack. Not sure what that's about! Cool Britannia? Britain out in the cold?
https://www.facebook.com/GuyVerhofstadt/