The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	Isn't a country's management of immigration vs. free access to the EU market the two sticking points for everybody?

Not just that.

There is the drive towards ever closer political integration inclusing stuff like the Euro army and other such projects.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The treaty prevents individual states from entering into or attempting to negotiate such deals, with one exception being the UK and Ireland who are entitled to negotiate changes and extensions to the CTA. Furthermore WTO rules prevents members from negotiating or entering independent trade deals with the UK while it remains an EU member.

But trade deals are only part of the picture.

The UK has 2 years after invoking article 50 to negotiate the "divorce"; it seems these negotiations (formally or informally) will not start until after article 50 is invoked.
From the EU side the key players in these negotiations are;

• Council of Europe (the member states)
• EU Commission
• EU Parliament

So far as I understand trade deals are not part of the divorce process but are part of the post divorce negotiations and so will be handled "later"!

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well if you actually took the time to read the treaty you'd find that he does!!!

Could you please show where in the treaty that is?

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Not just that. There is the drive towards ever closer political integration inclusing stuff like the Euro army and other such projects.

Well we cannot expect the USA to keep defending Europe for ever and it seems like Trump has no wish to defend Europe

[marton]

UK 'completely lost' post Brexit and will 'plead' for a deal, top Brussels officials believe

Source

If May and her team do not get their act together soon then rumours like this will strengthen.

Some people describe the Remainers as "bitter" but how shall we now describe the Leavers? Apathetic, indifferent, uninterested?

It seems that most of the Leave Campaign promises will not be fulfilled, Cameron said he would trigger Article 50 immediately but now looks like 2017 and from the Telegraph link above the politicians responsible to implement Brexit are nowhere near ready - UK officials concede privately that the Whitehall bureaucracy is still “miles and miles” from being ready to conduct detailed negotiations.

The Leavers really should pushing for more substantial progress!

The Leave campaign gave the following reasons to vote Leave, see below. Will all these happen and when?

A Vote to Leave takes back control

We stop handing over £350 million a week to Brussels
We take back control of our borders and can kick out violent criminals
We take back the power to kick out the people who make our laws
We decide what we spend our own money on
We free our businesses from damaging EU laws and regulations
We take back the power to make our own trade deals
We have better relations with our European friends
We regain our influence in the wider world and become a truly global nation

[kriss kross]

	Quote:	marton
	Some people describe the Remainers as "bitter" but how shall we now describe the Leavers?

Enlightened and patriotic

I am absolutley loving the whinging from the Bremainers!

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	Some people describe the Remainers as "bitter" but how shall we now describe the Leavers? Apathetic, indifferent, uninterested?

Does anyone really care anymore? Nah, Brexit is just another scandal - in a year will be completely forgotten by most, probably only the EFers will continue to reiterate ad nauseam how wonderful is for the UK..

	Quote:	kriss kross
	Enlightened and patriotic I am absolutley loving the whinging from the Bremainers!

May I ask you why? What's your beef with EU?

[fatmanfilms]

I have been inferring as much for a month, clearly I am not the only person who has twigged the UK does not need a trade deal with the EU. It's the EU who needs the deal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ine&yptr=yahoo

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I have been inferring as much for a month, clearly I am not the only person who has twigged the UK does not need a trade deal with the EU. It's the EU who needs the deal. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ine&yptr=yahoo

Everybody has their opinion!

Lloyd’s of London and other insurers will be forced to move part of their businesses to the European Union if they fail to access the single market following Britain’s decision in June to leave the bloc, Chairman John Nelson said on Monday.

Lloyd's of Frankfurt does not have quite the same ring does it?

Source

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I have been inferring as much for a month, clearly I am not the only person who has twigged the UK does not need a trade deal with the EU. It's the EU who needs the deal. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ine&yptr=yahoo

It is a fight of principle versus money.
The key issue is that the EU is not a single entity but 27 countries.

The countries that export goods and services to UK will likely be in favour of a trade deal plus UK immigration control; the countries that export their people to UK (and other EU countries) to work will likely not be in favour of UK immigration control.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Everybody has their opinion! Lloyd’s of London and other insurers will be forced to move part of their businesses to the European Union if they fail to access the single market following Britain’s decision in June to leave the bloc, Chairman John Nelson said on Monday. Lloyd's of Frankfurt does not have quite the same ring does it? Source

Since Lloyds does not transact any business directly it can be where ever it wants. All business goes via a broker..... Those brokers are world wide already.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I have been inferring as much for a month, clearly I am not the only person who has twigged the UK does not need a trade deal with the EU. It's the EU who needs the deal. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ine&yptr=yahoo

Of course the UK needs a deal if it is to avoid declining living standards over say the next 10 to 15 year or so!

Consider this:
- It takes at least 4 or 5 years to get a good trade deal and the U.K. needs to do a lot of deals
- Once a deal is done it can take anything up 10 years for companies to establish themselves and built a profitable business in that market.
- About 48% of UK exports are to the EU

To avoid an economic contraction over the next say 10 to 15 years while it turns away from the EU and towards other markets it needs a deal.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Since Lloyds does not transact any business directly it can be where ever it wants. All business goes via a broker..... Those brokers are world wide already.

Do you really think we're talking about the coffee house?... And if as you think it is really world wide why is so much business going through London?..

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Do you really think we're talking about the coffee house?... And if as you think it is really world wide why is so much business going through London?..

Lloyds will insure unusual & non standard risks, thats it's USP. The brokers who wish to insure a lion tamer or a Hollywood star place the risks through Lloyds as there is always a syndicate who will like the sweet smell of an inflated premium. Other insurance companies go to Lloyds to offload risk.

Lloyds of London is not an insurance company in the conventional sense , it's a market of t's members,

Oh & only 11% of Lloyds premium income comes from the EU, Lloyds have always been big in shipping.

EDIT Insurance companies don't make their money by quantity of business (brokers do), they make money on profitable business, so dropping business may make zero difference to the bottom line. Being competitive is very dangerous.......

[Blueangel]

This would be the icing on the Brexit cake...

	Quote:
	British citizens may have to apply for visas to travel to Europe after the UK leaves the EU, according to reports. A scheme apparently being debated by the European Commission suggests the 26-nation passport-free Schengen zone, which does not include the UK, could operate a visa programme similar to the US waiver. Currently UK passport holders can travel throughout member states without having to apply for short-term visas. But Britain's decision to leave the EU has left question marks over the criteria needed for UK nationals to visit the Schengen zone.

http://news.sky.com/story/britons-ma...urope-10571854


We can all rant and scream this will never happen because we didn't need visas before EU membership, but there's a tiny part of me that would be interested to see how this could pan out.

When I think of all the members of EDL and other right wing groups who are likely to have a criminal record, an EU ESTA style system could prevent them from ever going on holiday again. Interesting....

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This would be the icing on the Brexit cake... http://news.sky.com/story/britons-ma...urope-10571854 We can all rant and scream this will never happen because we didn't need visas before EU membership, but there's a tiny part of me that would be interested to see how this could pan out. When I think of all the members of EDL and other right wing groups who are likely to have a criminal record, an EU ESTA style system could prevent them from ever going on holiday again. Interesting....

Puts a whole new spin on Butlins "A little bit of this, and quite a lot of that"

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This would be the icing on the Brexit cake... http://news.sky.com/story/britons-ma...urope-10571854 We can all rant and scream this will never happen because we didn't need visas before EU membership, but there's a tiny part of me that would be interested to see how this could pan out. When I think of all the members of EDL and other right wing groups who are likely to have a criminal record, an EU ESTA style system could prevent them from ever going on holiday again. Interesting....

I'm sure the EU / UK damage limitation committee (for want of a better expression) will try to avoid anything which could unnecessarily provoke tit-for-tat type rulings wherever possible and the potential for getting shitty about borders and holiday makers will cause more harm than good. I'm sure they'll find a way around it to save everyone's face.

[marton]

	Quote:
	I'm sure the EU / UK damage limitation committee (for want of a better expression) will try to avoid anything which could unnecessarily provoke tit-for-tat type rulings wherever possible and the potential for getting shitty about borders and holiday makers will cause more harm than good. I'm sure they'll find a way around it to save everyone's face.

There is a very long list of countries (List B) whose nationals do not have to apply for a Schengen visa so it does not seem to be a big deal to add UK, source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	Could you please show where in the treaty that is?

Do the research!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	But trade deals are only part of the picture. The UK has 2 years after invoking article 50 to negotiate the "divorce"; it seems these negotiations (formally or informally) will not start until after article 50 is invoked. From the EU side the key players in these negotiations are; Council of Europe (the member states) EU Commission EU Parliament So far as I understand trade deals are not part of the divorce process but are part of the post divorce negotiations and so will be handled "later"!

It's the Council of Ministers, the Council of Europe is something else.

And while these three institutions can agree treaties with third countries, there is one provision that seems to always be forgotten in UK articles - they can not agree anything that needs a treaty change.

In practical terms it is almost impossible for the UK to get the kind of deal it wants on access to the single market and concessions on FMOP without a treaty change and that means it must have the approval of each state in accordance with it's national procedures. Which of course means referenda in France, Denmark and Ireland.