The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It's the Council of Ministers, the Council of Europe is something else. And while these three institutions can agree treaties with third countries, there is one provision that seems to always be forgotten in UK articles - they can not agree anything that needs a treaty change. In practical terms it is almost impossible for the UK to get the kind of deal it wants on access to the single market and concessions on FMOP without a treaty change and that means it must have the approval of each state in accordance with it's national procedures. Which of course means referenda in France, Denmark and Ireland.

The big assumption that the EU may will be in existence in it's current form by the time the UK ends it's 2 year negotiation period.

I don't believe thats a foregone conclusion & any investments I make will take that into account. It's a slightly outside bet, just as the UK voting to leave was.....

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The big assumption that the EU may will be in existence in it's current form by the time the UK ends it's 2 year negotiation period.

It is not a big assumption at all, you just have to look at the evidence so far: we have regularly heard this kind of prediction coming out of the UK for the last 40 years and it has been wrong on every occasion!

- The CAP negotiations with the USA in the late 80s, early 90s
- The renegotiations of the CAP
- The launch of the EURO
- The bail out of the PIGS
- The application of the fiscal compact
- The negotiations with the Greeks
- The polls after the UK vote
- ....

The only thing we can say about UK predictions is that they have been consistent, consistently wrong!

[Blueangel]

Did anyone else see Amber Rudd commit a body language 101 faux pas on the Andrew Marr Show this morning?

When asked...

	Quote:
	And you are completely committed to the tens of thousands target of immigration

...she shook her head (instead of nodding) and answered...

	Quote:
	I am completely making sure that we reduce it, and yes, tens of thousands though it will take some time.

Hmmm....

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well if you actually took the time to read the treaty you'd find that he does!!!

	Quote:	Phos
	Could you please show where in the treaty that is?

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Do the research!

First common sense.

If as you claim Juncker has the authority to prevent countries from discussing trade with each other, then the EU is a dictatorship with an unelected leader. True or not, pretty much sums up why the majority of aware people in Europe would like to leave it.

And then you can change the story around later that it isn't the case.

You'll have to produce some evidence to your claim for it to be considered of any value.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	First common sense. If as you claim Juncker has the authority to prevent countries from discussing trade with each other, then the EU is a dictatorship with an unelected leader. True or not, pretty much sums up why the majority of aware people in Europe would like to leave it. And then you can change the story around later that it isn't the case. You'll have to produce some evidence to your claim for it to be considered of any value.

Because of the EU customs union and 'common commercial policy' EU member states decided in 1957 that all trade deals would be centrally negotiated (Article 133) and individual member states are consequently not allowed to make individual trade deals with non-EU countries; nothing to do with Juncker and agreed long before his time.

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	First common sense.

The treaty trumps your common sense and if you are not willing to the research then I for one am not going to take you seriously, except for my own amusement from time to time.

[marton]

Chancellor dismantles key Osborne pledge to cut corporation tax to 15% or less!
The new Chancellor has indicated that he will not slash corporation tax to 15pc in a bid to boost the economy, dismissing predecessor George Osborne’s plan as just a suggestion.
Seems 17% is still in the game plan!

Source

[Blueangel]

Bye bye Dave! Ta ta!!!

	Quote:
	Ex-Prime Minister David Cameron To Stand Down As MP Former Prime Minister David Cameron is standing down as an MP, triggering a by-election in his Witney seat. Mr Cameron said he had "thought about this long and hard over the summer", deciding it was "the right thing to do to stand down". He added: "In my view, in modern politics, with the circumstances of my resignation, it isn't really possible to be a proper backbench MP. "As a former Prime Minister, everything you do will become a big distraction, a big diversion from what the Government needs to do for our country."

http://news.sky.com/story/ex-prime-m...as-mp-10575485

[CathHarmony]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Bye bye Dave! Ta ta!!! http://news.sky.com/story/ex-prime-m...as-mp-10575485

My guess is he's only gone because he's got a job offer with much more money, nothing at all to do with being a distraction! so much for the public servant facade.

[Bozza]

Saying that he won't resign no matter what the outcome and then promptly resigning. Now this.

He'll go down in history as one of the worst UK prime ministers ever.

[marton]

The Government will keep key details about Brexit negotiations secret from Parliament, the Cabinet minister (David Davis) in charge of leaving the European Union has warned.

“Clearly there is a need for Parliament to be informed without giving away our negotiating position. I may not be able to tell you everything, even in private hearings,” he told the House of Lords EU select committee.

Source

It would be really nice to be able to believe the UK Govt. has some clever negotiating position up its sleeve but I fear it is just a bluff

[marton]

More from the Independent;

Two months ago it was easy. At least according to David Davis on 11 July.

“I would expect the new Prime Minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months,” he said then.

Now, David Davis speaking to the House of Lords’ European Union Select Committee today says "exiting the European Union will be the most complex negotiations ever”.

Source

[marton]

Switzerland's stock exchange is in talks with financial regulators in a number of European countries about opening a new gateway to the EU's single market once Britain leaves the bloc, it said on Monday.

The talks highlight how the City of London's role as the region's leading financial hub is likely to be eroded to some extent as companies seek alternative centres to guarantee access to the European Union come what may.

Like many foreign financial firms in London, the SIX Swiss Exchange uses the British capital as a base for business across the European Union, given that Switzerland is not a member of the 28-nation bloc.

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	“I would expect the new Prime Minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months,” he said then.

Probably before he discovered that WTO rules prevent members from negotiations until such time as they actually leave the EU....

[Kosti]

Article that says May will ask to maintain common market access, while limiting free movement.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...orefromreuters

Expected reactions from the EU, no common market access without free movement.

[marton]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Article that says May will ask to maintain common market access, while limiting free movement. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...orefromreuters Expected reactions from the EU, no common market access without free movement.

According to this link the Cabinet does not yet appear to have achieved a consensus view; no wonder they do not want to give away "our negotiating position(s)".

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	CathHarmony
	My guess is he's only gone because he's got a job offer with much more money, nothing at all to do with being a distraction! so much for the public servant facade.

I think he might move to the country and spend more time on his hobbies.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I think he might move to the country and spend more time on his hobbies.

Maybe he'll join Momentum and throw bricks through the office windows of female MP's who object to their leader's Kinder and Gentler Sort Of Politics.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Probably before he discovered that WTO rules prevent members from negotiations until such time as they actually leave the EU....

I'm slightly confused by this and searched 'WTO rules' in this forum.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	I've already pointed that out in the past, there is a very real danger the the UK would end up exiting as a third country with WTO trade rules only, if one member state keeps objecting to a deal over the two year period.

Brexit - did your vote change

For the sake of clarity please...and for my sanity...who would prevent their member states from negotiating with whom?

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	For the sake of clarity please...and for my sanity...who would prevent their member states from negotiating with whom?

Due to the EU treaty, EU member states cannot negotiate individually with the UK.

Due to the EU relationship with the WTO, all member countries of the WTO (basically the rest of the world), cannot negotiate with the UK until it exits the EU. Informally they could, but will not, atleast until the post Brexit EU-UK relationship is known with some certainty.