The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Due to the EU treaty, EU member states cannot negotiate individually with the UK.

I don't see why they can't negotiate. What they can't do is sign treaties.

So they can theoretically set up and negotiate everything and then invoke article 50 and then sign the treaty.

In fact it would be naive to assume that there isn't already plenty of behind the scenes bartering going on. And the reactions of the likes of Junker show how uncomfortable that is making them.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	amogles
	I don't see why they can't negotiate. What they can't do is sign treaties.

Since they cant sign treaties, then any individual negotiation is of little use.

	Quote:	amogles
	So they can theoretically set up and negotiate everything and then invoke article 50 and then sign the treaty. In fact it would be naive to assume that there isn't already plenty of behind the scenes bartering going on. And the reactions of the likes of Junker show how uncomfortable that is making them.

Sure, lots of positioning is happening and will happen. "Leaks" to the media, position papers supporting this view or that, its all part of the EU sausage.

In the end, it will come down to one relationship with the EU, so the UK can try all it wants to influence a single country here and there, but ultimately that country will have one voice in 27, with differing degrees of weightage, when it comes to the final set up. And so far, NO country has indicated support for the UKs main demand, common market access without free movement.

Juncker is simply making a show of stating his position on the negotiations. As head of the EU bureaucracy, overseeing 27 country negotiations are what he does for a living. I dont see why this should make him uncomfortable.

Because they can't walk and chew gum at the same time.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	I don't see why they can't negotiate. What they can't do is sign treaties. So they can theoretically set up and negotiate everything and then invoke article 50 and then sign the treaty. In fact it would be naive to assume that there isn't already plenty of behind the scenes bartering going on. And the reactions of the likes of Junker show how uncomfortable that is making them.

"I don't see why they can't negotiate."
As an example; Australia’s trade minister Steven Ciobo told Today: “My formal advice is that, and this is from the UK side …, the UK is unable to negotiate or sign an agreement prior to the formal exit from the EU.

“We can certainly have preliminary discussions and that’s part of what I’m doing here this week – preliminary discussions around what a post-Brexit Australia-UK trade deal might look like; Some discussions about what our ambitions and aspirations are, and there’s been good alignment in terms of those conversations.”

Ciobo said the trade deal could only happen “when the time is right”, adding that it might not be for another three years if, as has been suggested, article 50 of the EU treaty is not triggered until 2017.

"So they can theoretically set up and negotiate everything" The basic difficulty is being unable to negotiate certain things before Brexit is settled. For example, will UK stay in the single market and so have access to the existing EU trade agreements or not? This would make a big difference to the shape of any trade deal?

This thread seems to have gone full Grauniad for the last few pages. Every day another story on why Brexit is the end of the world. Here's some advice. Get over it. You're starting to sound like a desperate guy who can't get over the fact his girlfriend has dumped him. It's not going to change anything. In case you've forgotten, here is what the government wrote, in their own words:

"A once in a generation decision

The referendum on Thursday, 23 June is your chance to decide if we should remain in or leave the European Union.

This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide."



Theresa May is doing exactly the right thing in keeping her cards close to her chest. So many of you are all too blinkered in how you're viewing this. The next 12-24 months are going to be some of the most testing times the EU has ever encountered:- Greece will be coming into focus again, Italian banks are on a precipice, Spain could tear in two, the migrant crisis hasn't gone away, accusations flying between countries, general elections across the bloc's leading economies, and the likely lurch to the right that will be the result. And all this without Brexit.

If May had any sense she would wait to see at least how some of the these things play out before playing her hand. I think there's a good chance that we'll see soon enough that the EU will not abide.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	You're starting to sound like a desperate guy who can't get over the fact his girlfriend has dumped him.

Good analogy - but even in a dump-situation you want to make sure you get your record collection back, she doesn't cut up all of your shirts, empties the joint rainy-day account, and you lose all your mutual friends.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This thread seems to have gone full Grauniad for the last few pages. Every day another story on why Brexit is the end of the world. Here's some advice. Get over it. You're starting to sound like a desperate guy who can't get over the fact his girlfriend has dumped him. It's not going to change anything. In case you've forgotten, here is what the government wrote, in their own words: "A once in a generation decision The referendum on Thursday, 23 June is your chance to decide if we should remain in or leave the European Union. This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide." Theresa May is doing exactly the right thing in keeping her cards close to her chest. So many of you are all too blinkered in how you're viewing this. The next 12-24 months are going to be some of the most testing times the EU has ever encountered:- Greece will be coming into focus again, Italian banks are on a precipice, Spain could tear in two, the migrant crisis hasn't gone away, accusations flying between countries, general elections across the bloc's leading economies, and the likely lurch to the right that will be the result. And all this without Brexit. If May had any sense she would wait to see at least how some of the these things play out before playing her hand. I think there's a good chance that we'll see soon enough that the EU will not abide.

In Germany the big question will be, can Merkel survive, and if not, who will take her place. It looks as if Schäuble is trying to align the pins by intentionally antagonizing Merkel's most disliked allies such as Maas. Schäuble might have more realistic views on refugees and be able to win back some of the voters lost to the AfD, but I don't think he understands how to stop pi$$ing off potential European allies any better than Merkel does. He doesn't think big.

In Spain, I don't believe the country is about to break apart. They'll thrash out a solution somehow. I'm pretty confident on this.

Greece is a wildcard here. I don't know enough about Greek politics to wager a prediction on how things will develop there. But things might turn nasty.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This thread seems to have gone full Grauniad for the last few pages. Every day another story on why Brexit is the end of the world. Here's some advice. Get over it. You're starting to sound like a desperate guy who can't get over the fact his girlfriend has dumped him. It's not going to change anything. In case you've forgotten, here is what the government wrote, in their own words: "A once in a generation decision The referendum on Thursday, 23 June is your chance to decide if we should remain in or leave the European Union. This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide." Theresa May is doing exactly the right thing in keeping her cards close to her chest. So many of you are all too blinkered in how you're viewing this. The next 12-24 months are going to be some of the most testing times the EU has ever encountered:- Greece will be coming into focus again, Italian banks are on a precipice, Spain could tear in two, the migrant crisis hasn't gone away, accusations flying between countries, general elections across the bloc's leading economies, and the likely lurch to the right that will be the result. And all this without Brexit. If May had any sense she would wait to see at least how some of the these things play out before playing her hand. I think there's a good chance that we'll see soon enough that the EU will not abide.

"Every day another story on why Brexit is the end of the world." Not true. Every day we have a new story where people are simply trying to figure out what this brave new world will look like.
It is all well and good writing May should wait and see but the world does not stand still. There are decisions to be made, actions to be implemented.

If you were a CEO or CFO of a major company would you be happy to wait and see? Or would you be instructing your team to find ways to minimise Brexit risks and to maximise Brexit opportunities.

	Quote:	marton
	"Every day another story on why Brexit is the end of the world." Not true. Every day we have a new story where people are simply trying to figure out what this brave new world will look like. It is all well and good writing May should wait and see but the world does not stand still. There are decisions to be made, actions to be implemented. If you were a CEO or CFO of a major company would you be happy to wait and see? Or would you be instructing your team to find ways to minimise Brexit risks and to maximise Brexit opportunities.

Her team is finding ways to minimise risk and maximise opportunities. I'm talking about biding her time before showing her hand. There is little to lose with this strategy as until Art. 50 is invoked the status quo will continue.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Her team is finding ways to minimise risk and maximise opportunities. I'm talking about biding her time before showing her hand. There is little to lose with this strategy as until Art. 50 is invoked the status quo will continue.

Legally the current status will mostly persist but not economically. Companies are already announcing their adjustments, all of them are cutting jobs in the UK. That's all UK will get from multinationals until the new status is reasonably clear. And with the approach of "UK will get EEA access without FMOP" that will remain well into the two years after article 50 has been invoked.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Her team is finding ways to minimise risk and maximise opportunities. I'm talking about biding her time before showing her hand. There is little to lose with this strategy as until Art. 50 is invoked the status quo will continue.

Sadly it is not a status quo; it is a time of uncertainty and organisations will move to minimise uncertainty and remove any perceived risks.
May is in a very difficult situation and I do not envy her; possibly the toughest task for an English PM since Winston Churchill!

Example, "The Zurich-based SIX Swiss Exchange confirmed to swissinfo.ch that it had been in talks with Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and a number of other national authorities following the UK’s June referendum to leave the EU.

“We are approaching the regulators in order to guarantee equivalence for our business,” said Stephan Meier, head of SIX’s media relations, confirming an earlier report in the Financial Times.

Meier said it was hard to say how long the talks would take as there is a great deal of uncertainty.
“We don’t know how the situation will evolve and what kind of agreement the UK will reach with the EU. It’s too early to predict,” he said.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Sadly it is not a status quo; it is a time of uncertainty and organisations will move to minimise uncertainty and remove any perceived risks. May is in a very difficult situation and I do not envy her; possibly the toughest task for an English PM since Winston Churchill! Example, "The Zurich-based SIX Swiss Exchange confirmed to swissinfo.ch that it had been in talks with Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and a number of other national authorities following the UK’s June referendum to leave the EU. “We are approaching the regulators in order to guarantee equivalence for our business,” said Stephan Meier, head of SIX’s media relations, confirming an earlier report in the Financial Times. Meier said it was hard to say how long the talks would take as there is a great deal of uncertainty. “We don’t know how the situation will evolve and what kind of agreement the UK will reach with the EU. It’s too early to predict,” he said.

Obviously we are going to see some self-sorting between those who think change equals risk and those who believe change equals opportunity. Every change will produce some losers and some winners. Nobody is denying this. The question is, will the good outweigh the bad?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	If you were a CEO or CFO of a major company would you be happy to wait and see? Or would you be instructing your team to find ways to minimise Brexit risks and to maximise Brexit opportunities.

Any CEO who was not prepared for the result of the vote should be sacked.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Theresa May is doing exactly the right thing in keeping her cards close to her chest. So many of you are all too blinkered in how you're viewing this.

Except that there is a very strong impression that they have not get even a consciences on what they want, let alone a plan. And the result as we are daily witnessing is that companies are drawing their own conclusions and acting accordingly.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The next 12-24 months are going to be some of the most testing times the EU has ever encountered:- Greece will be coming into focus again, Italian banks are on a precipice, Spain could tear in two, the migrant crisis hasn't gone away, accusations flying between countries, general elections across the bloc's leading economies, and the likely lurch to the right that will be the result. And all this without Brexit.

If this does pan out then it will be to the detriment of a deal with the UK, because it will fall far done the priority list and makes it more likely a case EEA or WTC because there will be very little support for running referenda in such a situation and thus would rule out any kind of changes in FMOP for example.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	If May had any sense she would wait to see at least how some of the these things play out before playing her hand. I think there's a good chance that we'll see soon enough that the EU will not abide.

If she had any sense, she wouldn't be watering down her support by papping on about grammar schools, which is a contentious issue amongst her own party. It wasn't on the election manifesto and is one of the few issues that could cause a snap General Election, which is the last thing May wants or needs.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Her team is finding ways to minimise risk and maximise opportunities. I'm talking about biding her time before showing her hand. There is little to lose with this strategy as until Art. 50 is invoked the status quo will continue.

Ok...fair point...but if you're standing in a by election between now and then, and your electorate ask the question, it's not going to imbibe faith if the answer is "I don't know." For the sake of her own MPs, May needs to give a little more info. I bet whoever stands in Witney will be knocking on her door begging for answers they can give.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Any CEO who was not prepared for the result of the vote should be sacked.

I know of one who moved a major contract to Scotland last quarter of 2015 in preparation for this, because he was sure that, regardless of the result, Scotland would find a way to stay in the EU. So now, seeing as the SNP cannot get clarification from May, he's going to have to think again. Just one problem....the contract in question can only be operated within the UK in accordance with the rules of the client company. The same applies to the Government contracts that the company also hold.

The point I'm trying to make is that certain industries, by their very nature, have to maintain a presence in the UK, even when they're multi-nationals. They have to just suck it up and recoup any losses in other countries that they operate in.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Any CEO who was not prepared for the result of the vote should be sacked.

There are many reasons to sack CEOs but it rarely happens; mostly when it does they walk away with a small fortune

Anyway prepared means they have a plan: not that the plan is immediately activated.

As in the case of the Swiss exchange that I mentioned they obviously had a plan and have gone public about their slowly implementing their plan.

The basic issue for CEOs is that the result of the vote is not clear; obviously UK will leave the EU but what will this actually mean for businesses? Nobody knows the terms of this "divorce"

[Reb77Br]

Looks as if the House of Lords may throw a spanner in the works of the plan to invoke Article 50 without the consent of parliament.

House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution: The invoking of Article 50 (13 September 2016)

"27. In our representative democracy, it is constitutionally appropriate that Parliament should take the decision to act following the referendum. This means that Parliament should play a central role in the decision to trigger the Article 50 process, in the subsequent negotiation process, and in approving or otherwise the final terms under which the UK leaves the EU. …

43. We consider it constitutionally appropriate that the assent of both Houses be sought for the triggering of Article 50. ...

Conclusion:

54. The referendum result was clear. Parliament is now responsible for ensuring that the Government takes forward the complex process of negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union in a manner that achieves the best possible outcome for the UK as a whole. The focus must now be on how Parliament and the Government will work together to that end.

55. That co-operation should start now. Parliament and the Government should, at this early stage, take the opportunity to establish their respective roles and how they will work together during the negotiation process. The constitutional roles of each—the Executive and the Legislature—must be respected, beginning with parliamentary involvement and assent for the invoking of Article 50."

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Looks as if the House of Lords may throw a spanner in the works of the plan to invoke Article 50 without the consent of parliament.

Ah Yes, the make it up as you go along constitution in play once again

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Ah Yes, the make it up as you go along constitution in play once again

The whole thing is new and potentially a legal minefield.
We are all in the same boat.

Reminds me of the quote "may God bless her and all those who sail in her"