The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Agreed in principle, but I take serious issue with this supposed tactic, when details are published in European media before even our own government have been advised.

It is not a tactic; it is a bluff and a clear demonstration that sadly our leaders are completely out of touch with the real world!

The UK will be negotiating with 27 EU countries, an EU Commission team and an EU Parliament team; not one of these have agreed to keep Brexit negotiations secret.

Should be titled "May's adventures in Wonderland";
Boris would be the Mad Hatter,
Merkel the Queen of Hearts,
David Davis is the Dormouse
Liam Fox the Mock Turtle,
May, of course, is Alice
Farage the Knave of Hearts
Juncker and Schulz are Tweedledee and Tweedledum.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	So, these are the states that will be pushing hard for a good UK deal after Article 50. Article 50, they can't do anything about.

These are states that potentially have a lot to lose so they will be seeking to save what they can save rather than seeking all out "told you so " vengeance.

In other words, they are most likely to seek compromises with the U.K.

As recent events have shown, they also don't mind sticking it up to Germany.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	These are states that potentially have a lot to lose so they will be seeking to save what they can save rather than seeking all out "told you so " vengeance. In other words, they are most likely to seek compromises with the U.K. As recent events have shown, they also don't mind sticking it up to Germany.

"In other words, they are most likely to seek compromises with the U.K."
No, they will be seeking full FMOP!
If they back off from this then they risk other EU and associated countries also seeking compromises; they have a longer term view than you

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	Um NO! These are exactly the States that will be pushing for a hard Brexit that keeps the FMOP intact and the opposite of a good UK deal!. Visegrád 4 are the those States that want and need to keep FMOP which is exactly opposite to the Brexit demands. Sigh...!

I wouldn't read it in that way, vetoing deals would make things worse for them. You need to look at what people want. Poland for example want people to be able to come to the UK to work. So if there is a deal with free movement, hurray they will be happy. If there is an offer with some kind of limitation, visa type deal, then what do they gain by trying to block that if the alternative is no relationship at all and therefore even worse trading relationships for their citizens. Poland and the other three want what's best for them, which is what everyone wants in the end.

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I wouldn't read it in that way, vetoing deals would make things worse for them. You need to look at what people want. Poland for example want people to be able to come to the UK to work. So if there is a deal with free movement, hurray they will be happy. If there is an offer with some kind of limitation, visa type deal, then what do they gain by trying to block that if the alternative is no relationship at all and therefore even worse trading relationships for their citizens. Poland and the other three want what's best for them, which is what everyone wants in the end.

No, if they make a compromise with UK then they set a poor precedent for deals with other countries

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	No, if they make a compromise with UK then they set a poor precedent for deals with other countries

If they don't compromise they potentially lose access to their most lucrative market in the world for them people wise. Money wins over moral posturing normally.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	If they don't compromise they potentially lose access to their most lucrative market in the world for them people wise. Money wins over moral posturing normally.

Well it obviously did not in the case of the U.K., so why would expect the others would do otherwise? No country has ever been refused entry to the EU for economic reasons, so why should they change now?

If the UK is unwilling to make some very big concessions on FMOP, Gibraltar and Norhern Ireland a deal is very unlikely I think.

Even an extension of the negotiation period can be vetoed by these 6.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well it obviously did not in the case of the U.K., so why would expect the others would do otherwise? No country has ever been refused entry to the EU for economic reasons, so why should they change now? If the UK is unwilling to make some very big concessions on FMOP, Gibraltar and Norhern Ireland a deal is very unlikely I think. Even an extension of the negotiation period can be vetoed by these 6.

Yes I think a deal with the single market is unlikely. So multiple deals will be made, the UK does not need to make concessions to Poland for example, we receive far more than we export to them people wise.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	If there is an offer with some kind of limitation, visa type deal, then what do they gain by trying to block that if the alternative is no relationship at all and therefore even worse trading relationships for their citizens. Poland and the other three want what's best for them, which is what everyone wants in the end.

Such a deal will not fly because it would be vetoed by Ireland as it would introduce an international border in Ireland, that is unless the UK agrees that NI remains nominal British and in a customs/FMOP union with the EU. Very unlikely I think and even if it did, no doubt Spain would expect the same for Gibraltar and of course Scotland would expect to get the same as NI....

Right now it is hard to see a proposal that would satisfy all the parties.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Yes I think a deal with the single market is unlikely. So multiple deals will be made, the UK does not need to make concessions to Poland for example, we receive far more than we export to them people wise.

You can't make individual deals with the member states. It's one deal or no deal.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The UK will be negotiating with 27 EU countries, an EU Commission team and an EU Parliament team; not one of these have agreed to keep Brexit negotiations secret.

Not alone that, but the Irish government will need to take sounds of the Irish people during the negotiations to see what is likely to be accepted in referendum. So expect to see Irish government ministers flying kites during the negotiations.... The changes of anything remaining secret for very long is not very high....

[Sbrinz]

A humerous suggestion on TV business today: the suggestion that London (Inside the M25) forms a state & breaks away from UK, but continues with the EU. The rest of the country can then try and make a living without the tax income from the capital. "They voted for it, they can suffer"

In the meantime who will work on the farms after Brexit? There have been several nasty attacks on Eastern Europeans, and they might not want to go to UK now.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You can't make individual deals with the member states. It's one deal or no deal.

So the eu will break up then.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	"In other words, they are most likely to seek compromises with the U.K." No, they will be seeking full FMOP! If they back off from this then they risk other EU and associated countries also seeking compromises; they have a longer term view than you

On the contrary.

People with a genuine interest seek a compromise.

People who don't care seek to make a pedagogic case out of it and seek to punish by demanding all or nothing knowing full well they risk getting nothing.

At the end of the day, these are business arrangements, not some jilted lovers embittered by unrequited love.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	In the meantime who will work on the farms after Brexit? There have been several nasty attacks on Eastern Europeans, and they might not want to go to UK now.

The remainers keep insisting we're all screwed.

If the genuinely believed that, they would believe all the unemployed London stockbrokers could pick vegetables on farms.

Or do they want us to believe that unemployment is going to shoot up but there won't be any unemployed?

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You can't make individual deals with the member states. It's one deal or no deal.

pretty scary that people don't know this!!!! and each state will have there own agenda and can veto, so who thinks the UK will get a good deal out of this??????

[rainer_d]

Thinking about this FMOP-thing.
I found it peculiar that while the Eastern European States want FMOP (so their people can move elsewhere), they didn't want any refugees (and esp. no Muslims), because they were "from a different culture and wouldn't fit in".

I do agree that EU vs. Syria (or elsewhere) is a different thing.
But if you think that through, you have to ask: what about Turkey?
What if Turkey was an EU-member state (something that a lot of people in Brussels and elsewhere have on their agenda)? Would Poland et.al. still insist on FMOP once millions of Turks started marching towards the EU and invariably end-up in Warsaw, Prague etc.pp.?

That is the real problem of the EU: all everybody can agree on is how to spend tax-payer money. There's no real common ground or shared political idea beyond that, besides a few trivialities.

[amogles]

	Quote:	rainer_d
	Thinking about this FMOP-thing. I found it peculiar that while the Eastern European States want FMOP (so their people can move elsewhere), they didn't want any refugees (and esp. no Muslims), because they were "from a different culture and wouldn't fit in".

This is exactly the problem.

The Visegrad states know full well that being in the EU is about giving some and taking some. Arrangements to their advantage are good. Arangements not to their advantage are to be resisted unless something else is being offered in return. This is basically what the Uk position has been for all these years too. Thus the Visegrad countries fundamentally understand why the UK wants the Brexit and are not going into denial over that but will rather seek to make the most of it. In a recent speech on the post Brexit situation Orbàn said that the real problem is not London but Brussels. I think when push comes to shove the UK will have it much easier negotiating with the Visegrad because they have the same thinking.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	pretty scary that people don't know this!!!! and each state will have there own agenda and can veto, so who thinks the UK will get a good deal out of this??????

I know someone!!!