The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	bigblue2
	pretty scary that people don't know this!!!! and each state will have there own agenda and can veto, so who thinks the UK will get a good deal out of this??????

If people think the UK's economy should rest solely on the EU, then yea, it is screwed after Article 50. But that is not the point of Brexit. It can be more global than the EU allows.

An example here is Honda's plant in Swindon. They realise after Brexit, they can make cars for a global market. They expect their exports to grow multiple times over. So Honda just invested another £200 million into the Swindon plant.
https://www.carkeys.co.uk/news/honda...-swindon-plant

I'm sure this opportunity is not unique to Honda.

[Blueangel]

I did a quick basics shop in Tesco yesterday, of the usual stuff I'd get in Migros on a Saturday afternoon. Back in May, the same list came to £35, but this time it was to £48 / CHF 61 approx. My Migros shop for the same items is usually around CHF65. Hmmm...

And if you're wondering what my weekend essentials are... Milk, bread, eggs, onions, courgettes, peppers, croissants, lettuce, tomatoes, ham, cheese, Vodka & own brand diet red bull (medicine & medicine mixer) for me and two packets of chocolate digestives, lion bars & ice cream for him.

As we all know, it's not that any one item has drastically increased, though I did notice a massive increase in the price of light bulbs, but the collective increases really mount up.


Add to this, there's some 'wonderful' news today...

	Quote:
	Business confidence hits four-year low after Brexit vote The views of more than 1,500 businesses gathered by Lloyds Bank paints a picture of caution after the Brexit vote.

	Quote:
	Expectations that sales, orders and profits will rise over the next two quarters fell to 12%, down from January's 38%, and the number of firms expecting to take on more staff over the next six months has dropped for the fourth consecutive survey.The number of companies looking to increase their capital expenditure was down by 14% to zero.

http://news.sky.com/story/business-c...-vote-10584546

Whilst all this is a bit of fun and games for some EF members, the reality of the situation here isn't encouraging.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	I'm sure this opportunity is not unique to Honda.

Which other global players have all their European production capacity located in the UK?

[rainer_d]

I wasn't alone when I thought the Bratislava meeting to be a bit of a waste of time:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN11O0H7

[baboon]

	Quote:
	An example here is Honda's plant in Swindon. They realise after Brexit, they can make cars for a global market. They expect their exports to grow multiple times over. So Honda just invested another £200 million into the Swindon plant.

That investment was made well before the referendum and is now completed. The article dates from March 2016.


If you had sunk £200m into a UK plant you would also be talking it up right now, whatever you might really think about BREXIT


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1729b766-d...#axzz4KiReUsBi


So absolutely NOTHING to do with BREXIT after all.

	Quote:	baboon
	That investment was made well before the referendum and is now completed. The article dates from March 2016. If you had sunk £200m into a UK plant you would also be talking it up right now, whatever you might really think about BREXIT

They are not going to throw away that kind of money just to save face. If Brexit were truly scary for them, there is no reason they could not retract that. In fact, they re-iterated their position, and now believe 40% of their products would be going to the US, and further increases down the road.

I thought I read a few days ago. I must have posted a previous article. This one is from last week:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/179279...estment-boost/

The point is, there is real opportunity with Brexit outside the EU, and the UK's future is not isolated in the EU. If you make the mistake it is, then of course the economy will tank. But the sooner more companies go global, the better for the UK economy, and the more likely the EU will actually cut a proper deal.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	They are not going to throw away that kind of money just to save face. If Brexit were truly scary for them, there is no reason they could not retract that. In fact, they re-iterated their position, and now believe 40% of their products would be going to the US, and further increases down the road. I thought I read a few days ago. I must have posted a previous article. This one is from last week: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/179279...estment-boost/ The point is, there is real opportunity with Brexit outside the EU, and the UK's future is not isolated in the EU. If you make the mistake it is, then of course the economy will tank. But the sooner more companies go global, the better for the UK economy, and the more likely the EU will actually cut a proper deal.

"They are not going to throw away that kind of money just to save face." So far as I understand this money is already spent so no retraction would be possible; consequently they have to talk it up.
Claiming 40% of a plant's output will be exported to the US when they only exported small amounts before does strain the credulity! Their statement lacks any detail of why UK was the best choice to attack the US export market.

Anyway, possibly some good news.

"Hard Brexit' would have only modest impact on City, says Moody's"

Source

	Quote:	marton
	"They are not going to throw away that kind of money just to save face." So far as I understand this money is already spent so no retraction would be possible; consequently they have to talk it up. Claiming 40% of a plant's output will be exported to the US when they only exported small amounts before does strain the credulity! Their statement lacks any detail of why UK was the best choice to attack the US export market.

So one way of turning bad news into good news, if you see certain corporations wrong about their direction, or are doomed because of Brexit, short the stock! If you're right, you'd score good news.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	So one way of turning bad news into good news, if you see certain corporations wrong about their direction, or are doomed because of Brexit, short the stock! If you're right, you'd score good news.

Short stock that is denominated in a currency that is declining in value; great idea

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I did a quick basics shop in Tesco yesterday, of the usual stuff I'd get in Migros on a Saturday afternoon. Back in May, the same list came to £35, but this time it was to £48 / CHF 61 approx. My Migros shop for the same items is usually around CHF65. Hmmm... And if you're wondering what my weekend essentials are... Milk, bread, eggs, onions, courgettes, peppers, croissants, lettuce, tomatoes, ham, cheese, Vodka & own brand diet red bull (medicine & medicine mixer) for me and two packets of chocolate digestives, lion bars & ice cream for him. As we all know, it's not that any one item has drastically increased, though I did notice a massive increase in the price of light bulbs, but the collective increases really mount up. Add to this, there's some 'wonderful' news today... http://news.sky.com/story/business-c...-vote-10584546 Whilst all this is a bit of fun and games for some EF members, the reality of the situation here isn't encouraging.

That's 33% inflation in 3 months. I had no idea it had gone up that much in Britain. I've searched the Internet but no alas, not even a side article that food had gone up a Third in 3 months because of brexit. You would have thought so mind as it's quite a big figure.

[marton]

A few words from the Polish ambassador here!

[me.anon]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I did a quick basics shop in Tesco yesterday, of the usual stuff I'd get in Migros on a Saturday afternoon. Back in May, the same list came to £35, but this time it was to £48 / CHF 61 approx. My Migros shop for the same items is usually around CHF65. Hmmm... And if you're wondering what my weekend essentials are... Milk, bread, eggs, onions, courgettes, peppers, croissants, lettuce, tomatoes, ham, cheese, Vodka & own brand diet red bull (medicine & medicine mixer) for me and two packets of chocolate digestives, lion bars & ice cream for him. . . .

How much, incidentally, does the Vodka cost in your Migros shop ?

[marton]

Interesting Bloomberg article here;

About 13,500 financial firms do business into and out of the U.K. under European Union passporting rules, underlining the significance of Britain’s access to the single market for companies on both sides of the Brexit divide.

Andrew Bailey, chief executive officer of the Financial Conduct Authority, said 5,476 firms authorized in the U.K. use so-called passports in EU law to sell services via branches or cross-border without a branch in other countries of the bloc.

A total of 8,008 firms authorized in other EU states do business in the U.K. under these rules, Bailey wrote in a letter to Andrew Tyrie, chairman of Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

	Quote:	marton
	Interesting Bloomberg article here; About 13,500 financial firms do business into and out of the U.K. under European Union passporting rules, underlining the significance of Britain’s access to the single market for companies on both sides of the Brexit divide.

Passporting rules wouldn't really stop the banking business in the UK, it just adds another layer of administration. It doesn't look like it will be the determining factor on where firms conduct their business.

[marton]

Some thoughtful articles in the ft here (might be behind a paywall).

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I did a quick basics shop in Tesco yesterday, of the usual stuff I'd get in Migros on a Saturday afternoon. Back in May, the same list came to £35, but this time it was to £48 / CHF 61 approx. My Migros shop for the same items is usually around CHF65. Hmmm... And if you're wondering what my weekend essentials are... Milk, bread, eggs, onions, courgettes, peppers, croissants, lettuce, tomatoes, ham, cheese, Vodka & own brand diet red bull (medicine & medicine mixer) for me and two packets of chocolate digestives, lion bars & ice cream for him. As we all know, it's not that any one item has drastically increased, though I did notice a massive increase in the price of light bulbs, but the collective increases really mount up. Add to this, there's some 'wonderful' news today... http://news.sky.com/story/business-c...-vote-10584546 Whilst all this is a bit of fun and games for some EF members, the reality of the situation here isn't encouraging.

comparing Zurich to London, apart from housing costs, transport, booze & fags, most things are still cheaper in London,

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living...atchComparison

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	Passporting rules wouldn't really stop the banking business in the UK, it just adds another layer of administration. It doesn't look like it will be the determining factor on where firms conduct their business.

Yet again you demonstrate a lack of knowledge on the topic.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Yet again you demonstrate a lack of knowledge on the topic.

Or lack of yours.
Banks can cope with loss of EU passports after Brexit, says Moody's

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Passporting rules wouldn't really stop the banking business in the UK, it just adds another layer of administration. It doesn't look like it will be the determining factor on where firms conduct their business.

	Quote:	Phos
	Or lack of yours. Banks can cope with loss of EU passports after Brexit, says Moody's

Adding another layer of administration increases costs and so makes them less competitive?

[Mikers]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7319261.html

Really good study, shows what happened. It wasn't about Europe, it was about sneering middle and upper classes looking down in the poor and after years of neglect, the poor finally got a voice.

Doesn't mean it's the right decision (leave or stay) but it's a great finding.