The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Reb77Br]

Are the EU and Boris Johnson trying to force Theresa May's hand, or is she leaving it to them to disclose government policy?


Donald Tusk says Brexit talks 'likely' early 2017 after speaking to May ("A Downing Street source, however, said on Saturday that May did not specifically mention January or February at the meeting, and that Tusk’s comments were an interpretation of their conversation.")


UK aims to trigger Brexit process in early 2017, says Boris Johnson ("However, Downing Street pointedly declined to back up Johnson’s contention.")
Boris defies Theresa May as he backs 'hard Brexit' campaign

[marton]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Are the EU and Boris Johnson trying to force Theresa May's hand, or is she leaving it to them to disclose government policy? Donald Tusk says Brexit talks 'likely' early 2017 after speaking to May ("A Downing Street source, however, said on Saturday that May did not specifically mention January or February at the meeting, and that Tusk’s comments were an interpretation of their conversation.") UK aims to trigger Brexit process in early 2017, says Boris Johnson ("However, Downing Street pointedly declined to back up Johnson’s contention.") Boris defies Theresa May as he backs 'hard Brexit' campaign

Simply confirms what I have posted several times here that the Govt. does not have a consensus plan on the way forward.

Not surprising since the various Leaver factions also did not have a consensus view before the referendum and now seem to have lost interest in campaigning on "next steps",.

[Reb77Br]

I wonder if Theresa May is less pro-Remain than Remainers would like to believe. Has she appointed Brexiteers to Brexit positions because she's planning a hard Brexit, and is seeming to be cagey and/or to contradict Brexiteers' pronouncements in an attempt to keep Remainers in her cabinet/party on board, and by the time the negotiations conclude she'll be singing the same tune as the Brexiteers?


But maybe they're just disorganised (unless that's wishful thinking from a Remainer point of view!)

[amogles]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	I wonder if Theresa May is less pro-Remain than Remainers would like to believe. Has she appointed Brexiteers to Brexit positions because she's planning a hard Brexit, and is seeming to be cagey and/or to contradict Brexiteers' pronouncements in an attempt to keep Remainers in her cabinet/party on board, and by the time the negotiations conclude she'll be singing the same tune as the Brexiteers? But maybe they're just disorganised (unless that's wishful thinking from a Remainer point of view!)

Under normal conditions, if a remainer were given a mandate to push through the Brexit, I think a lot of people would be suspicious and suspect she might seek to sabotage the process from within. Any failure could be interpreted as either intentional or lack of will and be held against here for years to come. So she really needs to overperform in order to dispel such suspicion. Her behvaiour is thus entirely rational seeing the conditions.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	Simply confirms what I have posted several times here that the Govt. does not have a consensus plan on the way forward. Not surprising since the various Leaver factions also did not have a consensus view before the referendum and now seem to have lost interest in campaigning on "next steps",.

I think it's going really well. We're going to get a cracking deal next year. I think that's the mindset to have. Go in strong, you'll be fine, go in weak and mr junckner will have us for petit dejuner.

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think it's going really well. We're going to get a cracking deal next year. I think that's the mindset to have. Go in strong, you'll be fine, go in weak and mr junckner will have us for petit dejuner.

I'd never thought of the United Kingdom as half a bottle of brandy before...

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	I'd never thought of the United Kingdom as half a bottle of brandy before...

Ive always had it down as a couple of Stella myself, but I think I lack the refinement you have Breakfast.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	I wonder if Theresa May is less pro-Remain than Remainers would like to believe. Has she appointed Brexiteers to Brexit positions because she's planning a hard Brexit...

I imagine she assembled the Leavers and said...

"You wanted. You've got it. Now crack on with it and I'll get on with running the country, but...we're having one last Christmas together so not a word to the children."

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I imagine she assembled the Leavers and said... "You wanted. You've got it. Now crack on with it and I'll get on with running the country, but...we're having one last Christmas together so not a word to the children."

You broke it, you fix it.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	Germany and France brushed aside suggestions by the UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, that there was no link between the EU’s principle of free movement and access to its single market, saying they could send Johnson a copy of the Lisbon treaty and even travel to London to explain it to him in English.

Source

The Boris negotiation strategy - live in a parallel universe perhaps......

Going to be interesting watching the Brexit negotiations take place as the EU stumbles from one crisis to the next over the 18 months.

The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Going to be interesting watching the Brexit negotiations take place as the EU stumbles from one crisis to the next over the 18 months. The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro

With elections anyway next year I doubt Merkel has any risk of losing her Chancellorship due to Deutsche bank; by the time this mess unravels she will have been voted in or out. If in then she can claim the country is behind her, Corbyn like

[Rob]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I imagine she assembled the Leavers and said... "You wanted. You've got it. Now crack on with it and I'll get on with running the country, but...we're having one last Christmas together so not a word to the children."

Or "if you give them enough rope they'll hang themselves"

Quite a good post here about the challenges that Brexit entails.

http://jackofkent.com/2016/09/the-ma...-summary-post/

Personally with the German and French elections coming up I wouldn't put money on the UK getting any sort of deal that does not require the application of copious amounts of lube.

	Quote:	marton
	With elections anyway next year I doubt Merkel has any risk of losing her Chancellorship due to Deutsche bank; by the time this mess unravels she will have been voted in or out. If in then she can claim the country is behind her, Corbyn like

	Quote:	Rob
	Personally with the German and French elections coming up I wouldn't put money on the UK getting any sort of deal that does not require the application of copious amounts of lube.

In recent weeks I'm becoming more inclined to agree. For one reason or another, it's highly unlikely that Merkel will be around next year, and she is one of the only advocates for a soft Brexit. There's a good chance the zealous federalists within the EU will offer a joke package when it comes to negotiation which the UK will have to tear up before telling them to piss off.

I think there's a strong chance there will be no deal, which means the UK going it alone. It'll be hard in the short term, but still preferable to the stormy waters that lie ahead for the EU.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	In recent weeks I'm becoming more inclined to agree. For one reason or another, it's highly unlikely that Merkel will be around next year, and she is one of the only advocates for a soft Brexit. There's a good chance the zealous federalists within the EU will offer a joke package when it comes to negotiation which the UK will have to tear up before telling them to piss off.

I'm not so sure.

Without Merkel's backing, I doubt there would be a Juncker or a Schultz.

Also, Merkel is not going to vanish into a vacuum. There will be a struggle over who will succeed her and in this respect the lines are already being drawn. The Bavarian faction is going to seek to take control and is trying to present itself as a AfD light. They may have a lot of sympathy among rank and file CDU membership, but among the non-Bavarian voting population as a whole the CSU has never been and is not presently seen as being very viable.

Another contender is Schäuble. He lacks in charisma, but he sticks to his guns and is a firm defender of fiscal responsibility. He has a tendency to talk down at people and is not very diplomatic, but I think a lot of people like him all the same. He is already taking pot shots at people like Maas indicating there will be a shift to the right, but less extreme than what the CSU is proposing. But how will the SPD react to that? Will it end the coalition, or can the CSU strong-arm the SPD into changing its course?

But more important than any of these questions is the realization that whatever or whoever replaces Merkel will be the CDU's last chance. Voters are ready to give a party a second chance, but not a third. If Merkel's successor messes up, and the probability of that is high, that is the end of the CDU as we know it. And this has consequences not just for Germany but for Europe.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Source The Boris negotiation strategy - live in a parallel universe perhaps......

Apparently, BoJo does live in a parallel universe where he still meddles in who joins the EU in the same breath as bragging how good his Beko is at removing his skid marks!

	Quote:
	Boris Johnson: UK will help Turkey join the EU Foreign secretary also boasted of his ‘beautiful,’ ‘well-functioning Turkish washing machine.’

http://www.politico.eu/article/boris...y-join-the-eu/

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Apparently, BoJo does live in a parallel universe where he still meddles in who joins the EU in the same breath as bragging how good his Beko is at removing his skid marks! http://www.politico.eu/article/boris...y-join-the-eu/

Boris meets Erdogan in Ankara today; wonder if Erdogan will serve stuffed goat for lunch

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	I'm not so sure. Without Merkel's backing, I doubt there would be a Juncker or a Schultz. Also, Merkel is not going to vanish into a vacuum. There will be a struggle over who will succeed her and in this respect the lines are already being drawn. The Bavarian faction is going to seek to take control and is trying to present itself as a AfD light. They may have a lot of sympathy among rank and file CDU membership, but among the non-Bavarian voting population as a whole the CSU has never been and is not presently seen as being very viable. Another contender is Schäuble. He lacks in charisma, but he sticks to his guns and is a firm defender of fiscal responsibility. He has a tendency to talk down at people and is not very diplomatic, but I think a lot of people like him all the same. He is already taking pot shots at people like Maas indicating there will be a shift to the right, but less extreme than what the CSU is proposing. But how will the SPD react to that? Will it end the coalition, or can the CSU strong-arm the SPD into changing its course? But more important than any of these questions is the realization that whatever or whoever replaces Merkel will be the CDU's last chance. Voters are ready to give a party a second chance, but not a third. If Merkel's successor messes up, and the probability of that is high, that is the end of the CDU as we know it. And this has consequences not just for Germany but for Europe.

"Without Merkel's backing, I doubt there would be a Juncker or a Schultz." Schultz's term of office runs until January 2017, then there will be another election.
Schultz was the first president to be re-elected for a second term.
The CDU (Merkel's party) have already asked him not to stand for a third term

Juncker's term of office runs until October 2019 and I do not assume it will be possible to remove him before then

Barroso was elected for a second term so that is also a possibility for Juncker

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	marton
	"Without Merkel's backing, I doubt there would be a Juncker or a Schultz." Schultz's term of office runs until January 2017, then there will be another election. Schultz was the first president to be re-elected for a second term. The CDU (Merkel's party) have already asked him not to stand for a third term Juncker's term of office runs until October 2019 and I do not assume it will be possible to remove him before then Barroso was elected for a second term so that is also a possibility for Juncker

I'm surprised how a functioning alcoholic can manage the stress of that office. But for two terms?

[marton]

I did not realise our PM was pro-Brexit before the referendum; might cast some light into the darkness.

Source