The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	I did not realise our PM was pro-Brexit before the referendum; might cast some light into the darkness. Source

Seriously? You're just catching up???

	Quote:	amogles
	I'm not so sure. Without Merkel's backing, I doubt there would be a Juncker or a Schultz. Also, Merkel is not going to vanish into a vacuum. There will be a struggle over who will succeed her and in this respect the lines are already being drawn. The Bavarian faction is going to seek to take control and is trying to present itself as a AfD light. They may have a lot of sympathy among rank and file CDU membership, but among the non-Bavarian voting population as a whole the CSU has never been and is not presently seen as being very viable. Another contender is Schäuble. He lacks in charisma, but he sticks to his guns and is a firm defender of fiscal responsibility. He has a tendency to talk down at people and is not very diplomatic, but I think a lot of people like him all the same. He is already taking pot shots at people like Maas indicating there will be a shift to the right, but less extreme than what the CSU is proposing. But how will the SPD react to that? Will it end the coalition, or can the CSU strong-arm the SPD into changing its course? But more important than any of these questions is the realization that whatever or whoever replaces Merkel will be the CDU's last chance. Voters are ready to give a party a second chance, but not a third. If Merkel's successor messes up, and the probability of that is high, that is the end of the CDU as we know it. And this has consequences not just for Germany but for Europe.

I think the CDU are done for, at least for the next election. Seehofer has been one of the few politicians that has made the right noises about the migrant crisis throughout. But like you say, I think the Bavarian factor is too big a hurdle. In my opinion Schäuble is far too bitter and miserable too make the top job. Also he wouldn't make a good negotiating partner for Brexit. The AfD and the uncertainty over next year's elections means that anything coming from France and Germany at the moment is virtually meaningless with regard to Brexit talks.

The only way the UK will get any kind of good deal with the EU is to show it can simply walk away without any deal at all. Go the WTO route and the EU will beg for negotiations. The EU doesn't really have balls.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Phos
	The only way the UK will get any kind of good deal with the EU is to show it can simply walk away without any deal at all. Go the WTO route and the EU will beg for negotiations. The EU doesn't really have balls.

The biggest single market in the World doesn't have balls? China's biggest trading partner doesn't have balls?

Imagine the cost of living in Switzerland if you were barred from every Coop, Migros, Denner, Aldi and Lidl.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The biggest single market in the World doesn't have balls? China's biggest trading partner doesn't have balls? Imagine the cost of living in Switzerland if you were barred from every Coop, Migros, Denner, Aldi and Lidl.

Exactly the kind of imagination that robs people of balls. Someone like Churchill or Thatcher would know what to do with this situation. Yet I'm not sure there is anyone left in the UK with balls, or Western Europe for that matter. I would be glad to be surprised if there is. The only ones I see with balls nowadays are in the East.

	Quote:	Phos
	The only way the UK will get any kind of good deal with the EU is to show it can simply walk away without any deal at all. Go the WTO route and the EU will beg for negotiations. The EU doesn't really have balls.

Well it would actually be no deal, but even the nutty federalists would want to avoid this too. Just imagine if the UK go off and make a success of it, it may give others ideas too.

With everything that's been said since the vote, I doubt they'll be able to settle on a deal.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	Exactly the kind of imagination that robs people of balls. Someone like Churchill or Thatcher would know what to do with this situation. Yet I'm not sure there is anyone left in the UK with balls, or Western Europe for that matter. I would be glad to be surprised if there is. The only ones I see with balls nowadays are in the East.

Agreed

There is still one man in Europe who has balls.

His name is Viktor Orban.

How does this work?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=is-wgVzc7qw

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Well it would actually be no deal, but even the nutty federalists would want to avoid this too. Just imagine if the UK go off and make a success of it, it may give others ideas too. With everything that's been said since the vote, I doubt they'll be able to settle on a deal.

I think that is the truth of the matter, that the EU is not really capable of a functioning. They can't even pass the Canadian deal. With all the rhetoric of a tough stance, they have a very weak hand, because what is really behind it is their incompetence and fragility to deal with reality.

That is closer to the truth of the situation. Its all smoke and mirrors. And if a more serious problem were to arise, its more of a liability to be engaged with it. The illegal immigration crisis already attest to it. In fact, its difficult to find anything meaningful they've actually solved.

The sooner they can come to terms with this, the more likely they will get real about their situation.

	Quote:	Phos
	The illegal immigration crisis already attest to it. In fact, its difficult to find anything meaningful they've actually solved.

Given that the words "illegal" and "crisis" seem to be reasonable descriptive words for it, is there any meaningful solution to be found?

What should the EU (or anyone for that matter) be doing exactly?

Clearly closing borders isn't working and the current housing of them in German and the shanty town in Calais, which is a tinder box on the brink of blowing up, is just losing votes and popularity to whoever happens to be in government.

Muchos talk about how things are going to hell in a handcart but not much in the way of workable suggestions from any of the critics.

	Quote:	Phos
	I think that is the truth of the matter, that the EU is not really capable of a functioning. They can't even pass the Canadian deal. With all the rhetoric of a tough stance, they have a very weak hand, because what is really behind it is their incompetence and fragility to deal with reality. That is closer to the truth of the situation. Its all smoke and mirrors. And if a more serious problem were to arise, its more of a liability to be engaged with it. The illegal immigration crisis already attest to it. In fact, its difficult to find anything meaningful they've actually solved. The sooner they can come to terms with this, the more likely they will get real about their situation.

Exactly, and that's just negotiating a trade deal. It's no coincidence that the EU (or EC as it was back then) simply stood by and watched as genocide was taking place on their doorstep during the Yugoslav Wars. It took NATO to step in and sort out that mess.

	Quote:
	Given that the words "illegal" and "crisis" seem to be reasonable descriptive words for it, is there any meaningful solution to be found? What should the EU (or anyone for that matter) be doing exactly? Clearly closing borders isn't working and the current housing of them in German and the shanty town in Calais, which is a tinder box on the brink of blowing up, is just losing votes and popularity to whoever happens to be in government. Muchos talk about how things are going to hell in a handcart but not much in the way of workable suggestions from any of the critics.

I believe there are other threads on that question. But you can take just about any crisis the EU has failed to deal with, and you'll find incompetence obfuscated by smoke and mirrors.

	Quote:	Phos
	I believe there are other threads on that question. But you can take just about any crisis the EU has failed to deal with, and you'll find incompetence obfuscated by smoke and mirrors.

You're talking about "crisis" on the same scale as the current million-plus per year flow of migrants across Europe?

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Given that the words "illegal" and "crisis" seem to be reasonable descriptive words for it, is there any meaningful solution to be found? What should the EU (or anyone for that matter) be doing exactly? Clearly closing borders isn't working and the current housing of them in German and the shanty town in Calais, which is a tinder box on the brink of blowing up, is just losing votes and popularity to whoever happens to be in government. Muchos talk about how things are going to hell in a handcart but not much in the way of workable suggestions from any of the critics.

When I was at university I had a professor who always said, before you start solving a problem, first formulate precisely what the problem is. If you can't do that, let the solution be. You're just wasting your energy.

Europe right now is still at the point of not knowing what problem they are actually trying to solve but bouncing solutions around nevertheless. Often in politics agreeing on the problem is the difficult bit. Once that is done the path ahead become obvious.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Exactly, and that's just negotiating a trade deal. It's no coincidence that the EU (or EC as it was back then) simply stood by and watched as genocide was taking place on their doorstep during the Yugoslav Wars. It took NATO to step in and sort out that mess.

I guess seeing it was a military problem, it was NATO's call to solve it.

One of the problems of the EU is hat they are trying to duplicate the efforts of other organisations, including NATO.

	Quote:	amogles
	Europe right now is still at the point of not knowing what problem they are actually trying to solve but bouncing solutions around nevertheless. Often in politics agreeing on the problem is the difficult bit. Once that is done the path ahead become obvious.

Exactly this.

Cumbersome and bureaucratic the EU might be, I think to expect a one size fits all, quick and easy solution is a bit naive, and to throw criticism around when there isn't one forthcoming is pointless and misdirected. Even if the EU didn't exist it would still need some committee comprising all the affected nations to come up with a solution which fits everyone and somehow respects the situation of the migrants.

It's always easy to "blame the bureaucrats" for everything but when it is a crisis as devastating, sensitive and vast as this it's never going to be a quick fix that suits all people involved.

	Quote:
	You're talking about "crisis" on the same scale as the current million-plus per year flow of migrants across Europe?

That crisis was manufactured by the quick fix solution proposed. So people risked their lives, some even died, to try to get to Germany.

These aren't single crises, as reality is a series of crises. So in the case of Merkel and the EU, they probably created nearly a dozen additional crises for themselves. Its the mark of incompetence.

	Quote:	amogles
	I guess seeing it was a military problem, it was NATO's call to solve it. One of the problems of the EU is hat they are trying to duplicate the efforts of other organisations, including NATO.

The EC had a lot to answer for:

http://www.wrmea.org/1993-april-may/...in-bosnia.html

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	That crisis was manufactured by the quick fix solution proposed. So people risked their lives, some even died, to try to get to Germany. These aren't single crises, as reality is a series of crises. So in the case of Merkel and the EU, they probably created nearly a dozen crises for themselves. Its the mark of incompetence.

On the Machiavellian scheme of things the idea is to create a criss and then come out looking strong for fixing it.

Politicians have been doing this since Ancient Greece.

Things start looking nasty when the crisis you created turns out to be bigger than you can control.

	Quote:	amogles
	On the Machiavellian scheme of things the idea is to create a criss and then come out looking strong for fixing it. Politicians have been doing this since Ancient Greece. Things start looking nasty when the crisis you created turns out to be bigger than you can control.

Ah, so we can look forward to more of the same post EU, then..?

Situation: normal.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Ah, so we can look forward to more of the same post EU, then..? Situation: normal.

Yes, this is the normal situation in politics. The main goal is to do things that keep you in power.

However, exceptional leaders are people who rise above that and actually do things that are right.