The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	On your figures, 1,000 CHFs would have been worth £680 a year ago, but a whopping £800 today -- an 18% increase!

But that only works if purchasing power remains the same, which it does not. For example, 40% of Irish agriculture exports go to the UK and they just went up as well. Add to that food stuffs coming in from Australia and NZ and you can expect it hitting shopping baskets later this year or early next year.

In this situation you only win big if you are importing from the UK or going on holidays there.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	So you support continuing to give such subsidies to Saudi Billionaires? Or you cannot imagine the consequences of stopping such subsidies?

Means tested. I can't explain it any more simply. If you don't understand we should move on.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	It's not just the obvious subsidy beneficiaries who are going to suffer if an alternative model of investment isn't found. I was talking to a mate last weekend, who manages the local youth centre. This place has a hell of a lot of investment from the local sports teams and industries, and has some very creative people running the fund raising side of things, but they're one of the few lucky ones. Many youth centres and child play centres are in receipt of EU funding. They're all working flat out to find alternatives, but find they're in competition with each other for that. I'd love to be wrong about Brexit. I'd love to be wrong about Corbyn. I'd love to be wrong about many things that concern me, but it's unlikely that I'll be wrong about all of them. There's no joy to be had in seeing close friends going through redundancy procedures, which is currently the case. There's no joy in seeing the interest rates on your ISAs plummeting to 0.7% when 2yrs ago, they were forecast at 8%. Just take a moment to check the best buy interest rates on offer for savings in the UK now... http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/sav...currentaccount When I arrived here less than a year ago, the exchange rate was GBP 1 = CHF 1.47. Now it's CHF 1.25 and we haven't even begun Brexit, so forgive me for not getting the bunting out.

Bad news the redundancies. And yet the major forecasters have reversed their predictions and admitted the uk has not suffered from Brexit so far. Of course I'm still sure it will be Brexit that they were let go, Brexit that their partner left them, Brexit that their tea was cold and Brexit that the hot water was a bit warm not hot in the bath, but I doubt that decision will ever change.

	Quote:	Mikers
	Means tested. I can't explain it any more simply. If you don't understand we should move on.

A lovely idea which adds massively to administrative complexity and will be a doddle to get round.

Might hurt a few in the middle but the rich will make sure they still get their piece of it.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	A lovely idea which adds massively to administrative complexity and will be a doddle to get round. Might hurt a few in the middle but the rich will make sure they still get their piece of it.

as it has not been invented yet how do you come to this conclusion ?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	as it has not been invented yet how do you come to this conclusion ?

Real life. If there were a simpler way it probably would have been implemented already.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Means tested. I can't explain it any more simply. If you don't understand we should move on.

based on what? many very wealthy people are paupers on paper, how do you think they become very wealthy in the first place?

everything is owned by off shore companies or family trust, nothing is in there own names etc etc also kinda helps with tax avoidance

Timberrrrrrr... Deutsche Bank share price about to go below €10.

Whatever happens here, the EU will be screwed. Merkel bails them out, Italy and Greece will despise her. Merkel doesn't, the Euro goes tits up and there will be a fresh banking crisis.

	Quote:	Mikers
	as it has not been invented yet how do you come to this conclusion ?

Every time means testing has been tried in any other area. It's not a new invention you know.

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think that faced with what they need to do, which is arrange an economic relationship with the world now (of which one part happens to be the eu) that the UK will make a good go of it.

The EU is the world's biggest economy and largest trading bloc and is right on the doorstep. The UK can't claim to be outward-looking when it's turning its back on the EU. Not to mention the anti-immigration rhetoric. No-one in their right mind can believe that a country that opposes immigrants from Europe is going to be more outward-looking to non-European immigrants.

[amogles]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	tbh. it says it all if you admire Nigel Farage, he freeloaded as an MEP raking in a huge salary and retirement fund at the same time being completely anti the EU behind its back,

Farage pretended to be pro EU?

Please tell me more

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Bad news the redundancies. And yet the major forecasters have reversed their predictions and admitted the uk has not suffered from Brexit so far.

Because it hasn't begun yet.

With this particular (German owned) company, the jobs in the north of England have gone to South Africa and the 7,000 redundancies they made at their key southern branches have gone to the EU.

As has been said many times before in this thread, every company will have had forecasts and strategies in place long before the referendum. Some are acting upon those strategies sooner rather than later. It's the way of the World, but because Brexit is a key issue in their decisions (which they have freely admitted to the unions involved in the redundancy negotiations) you appear to be in denial.

Let me put it to you this way... I used to drive past the major southern branch of this company every day for the 2yrs it was under construction. It was billed as the biggest branch of it's kind in the UK. I don't honestly now if the branch actually opened, but the 7,000 staff who were supposed to be transfered are no longer with the company.

	Quote:	amogles
	Farage pretended to be pro EU? Please tell me more

I think he was less "pro-EU" and more "pro-expenses". Who wouldn't be? Free money and he didn't even have to turn up - gotta get me some of that!

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Because it hasn't begun yet. With this particular (German owned) company, the jobs in the north of England have gone to South Africa and the 7,000 redundancies they made at their key southern branches have gone to the EU. As has been said many times before in this thread, every company will have had forecasts and strategies in place long before the referendum. Some are acting upon those strategies sooner rather than later. It's the way of the World, but because Brexit is a key issue in their decisions (which they have freely admitted to the unions involved in the redundancy negotiations) you appear to be in denial. Let me put it to you this way... I used to drive past the major southern branch of this company every day for the 2yrs it was under construction. It was billed as the biggest branch of it's kind in the UK. I don't honestly now if the branch actually opened, but the 7,000 staff who were supposed to be transfered are no longer with the company.

Sorry, to say that "Brexit hasn't happened yet" is such a lame excuse. And this wasn't what was said during the campaign. As a reminder:

• Leaving would cause immediate global turmoil
• There would be emergency tax rises
• Leaving would cause an instant rise in unemployment (it actually has gone down
• House prices would go down 18%
• There would be a instant collapse in the stock exchange
• That it would cost each and everyone £4300 per year
• There would be a recession in 2016 if Brexit happened

All this has turned out to be total bullshit.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Sorry, to say that "Brexit hasn't happened yet" is such a lame excuse. And this wasn't what was said during the campaign. As a reminder: Leaving would cause immediate global turmoil There would be emergency tax rises Leaving would cause an instant rise in unemployment (it actually has gone down House prices would go down 18% There would be a instant collapse in the stock exchange That it would cost each and everyone £4300 per year There would be a recession in 2016 if Brexit happened All this has turned out to be total bullshit.

not to mention the total end of Western civilization, earthquakes, locusts, death of firstborn and dragons devouring all virgins.

the first of those actually was predicted.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0YZ0Q9

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	With this particular (German owned) company, the jobs in the north of England have gone to South Africa and the 7,000 redundancies they made at their key southern branches have gone to the EU.

You might want to pass the information on to Scientists for EU: Scientists for EU: monitoring Brexit impact

Scientists for EU: who we are
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The Guardian: Six leading scientists give perspectives on UK science after Brexit

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Sorry, to say that "Brexit hasn't happened yet" is such a lame excuse. And this wasn't what was said during the campaign. As a reminder: Leaving would cause immediate global turmoil There would be emergency tax rises Leaving would cause an instant rise in unemployment (it actually has gone down House prices would go down 18% There would be a instant collapse in the stock exchange That it would cost each and everyone £4300 per year There would be a recession in 2016 if Brexit happened All this has turned out to be total bullshit.

To be fair, in your context you are using the word "leaving" for "yes vote".

Nobody really knows what will happen once the leave vote turns into "Article 50 triggered" and then even less what will happen when the UK officially and finally uncouples itself from the EU. I've stated three stages to the process but I'm guessing it's even more complex than that. Each one will be closely monitored for the good or the bad by business leaders, the financial world and other EU members.

[marton]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Oh for heaven's sake. That's a very silly argument. On that basis, there is no such thing as a single entity in the entire world, is there? The European Commission certainly isn't one as it comprises all those commissioners. And they are made up of different body parts and bit of clothing.... Maybe once we get down to a sub-molecular level we have a single entity? No. It's totally comprehensible to say "I love Europe but dislike the EU" -- as in fact I have said many times, and will continue to say. Everyone understands that the European Union in this context refers to the organisation and its collective administrative apparatus and mores -- and certainly not the member nations.

"in this context refers to the organisation and its collective administrative apparatus and mores -- and certainly not the member nations." Anybody who believes this context completely fails to understand what the EU is.
The member nations are the most important part of the EU; they have to approve all the important decisions and can veto major decisions.

You seem to have fallen for the propaganda that the EU is some sort of macro being.

"On that basis, there is no such thing as a single entity in the entire world, is there?" Not at all; there are many complex organisations that are single entities, for example, FIFA and FIA.
They are each led by a President who is overall responsible.

Now look at the EU
the EU Commission has a President (elected)
the EU Parliament has a President (elected)
the EU Council of Europe has a President (elected)
the European Court of Justice has a President (elected)

These organisations work together to run the EU; no single one has authority over the other three.

[bigblue2]

well nissan have just kinda hinted they are looking at other options (part french owned)

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37515251

I expect toyota / bmw etc also have one eye on the door too.

[marton]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	tbh. it says it all if you admire Nigel Farage, he freeloaded as an MEP raking in a huge salary and retirement fund at the same time being completely anti the EU behind its back, you call that balls, I call that untrustworthy and manipulative. Thatchers economics influenced by Greenspan and the writings of Ayan Rand, could be considered one of the primary causes of most of the post 80s financial crises and the bursting of bubbles not the EU. But go on believing the crap you spout. Thatcher destroyed a lot of communities without coming up with alternative solutions to employment and industry. All for cheaper imports and bigger profits. Her only real coup was the Falklands conflict and I think any PM from any party would have entered into conflict at the time. It's similar to how the blame for the invasion of Iraq is always placed on B-liar, but whatever government was in power at the time would have followed America into conflict. Thatcher saw to it that Britain was to be the 51st State and until very recently it was.

And Farage is still freeloaded as an MEP raking in a huge salary and retirement fund.

No wonder he is not campaigning for an early invocation of Article 50