The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	No. It's totally comprehensible to say "I love Europe but dislike the EU" -- as in fact I have said many times, and will continue to say. Everyone understands that the European Union in this context refers to the organisation and its collective administrative apparatus and mores -- and certainly not the member nations.

What are you referring to?

European Commission: ethics and conduct
EU accounts
EU mythbusters

	Quote:	marton
	And Farage is still freeloaded as an MEP raking in a huge salary and retirement fund. No wonder he is not campaigning for an early invocation of Article 50

It is interesting that he isn't clamouring for that.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Timberrrrrrr... Deutsche Bank share price about to go below €10. Whatever happens here, the EU will be screwed. Merkel bails them out, Italy and Greece will despise her. Merkel doesn't, the Euro goes tits up and there will be a fresh banking crisis.

How many other companies will be dragged down with Deutsche Bank; how many of us have our pension funds and/or savings in such? Nothing to be happy about.

CS, UBS and Swiss Life shares all opened lower this morning

	Quote:	marton
	How many other companies will be dragged down with Deutsche Bank; how many of us have our pension funds and/or savings in such? Nothing to be happy about. CS, UBS and Swiss Life shares all opened lower this morning

I'm not happy about it, but neither am I upset. The biggest mistake that was made in 2008 is that non of the European big banks were allowed to go bust.

Brexit may well end up being a sideshow if this thing goes down.

	Quote:
	To be fair, in your context you are using the word "leaving" for "yes vote". Nobody really knows what will happen once the leave vote turns into "Article 50 triggered" and then even less what will happen when the UK officially and finally uncouples itself from the EU. I've stated three stages to the process but I'm guessing it's even more complex than that. Each one will be closely monitored for the good or the bad by business leaders, the financial world and other EU members.

Sure, but many of these points were supposed to happen directly after the vote. None of them have materialised. Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan etc. etc. have all had to amend their growth forecasts for post Brexit. It was project fear and nothing more.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Sure, but many of these points were supposed to happen directly after the vote. None of them have materialised. Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan etc. etc. have all had to amend their growth forecasts for post Brexit. It was project fear and nothing more.

I recall that the doom was predicted for if the UK "leaves" the EU. I don't recall either campaign, for that matter, claiming that it would happen before the official departure.

My understanding was that "Project Fear" was looking at the long-term effects, not purely post referendum.

The result of the referendum caused a wobble and a period of instability in the markets for a few weeks, as any political event would likely do.

It would be a bit naive to say "well, it's all fine, we got past the Brexit and everything is all hunky dory" because we're not actually "post Brexit" yet, are we?

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Every time means testing has been tried in any other area. It's not a new invention you know.

I know it's as old as the hills. Ok then let's use a different method. Or something else. It doesn't matter what we use because we, the U.K., can create the mechanism, not be given wha the eu decides to use.

	Quote:
	I recall that the doom was predicted for if the UK "leaves" the EU. I don't recall either campaign, for that matter, claiming that it would happen before the official departure. My understanding was that "Project Fear" was looking at the long-term effects, not purely post referendum. The result of the referendum caused a wobble and a period of instability in the markets for a few weeks, as any political event would likely do. It would be a bit naive to say "well, it's all fine, we got past the Brexit and everything is all hunky dory" because we're not actually "post Brexit" yet, are we?

Nope, have a read of some of these. The IMF are particularly hilarious in how far from the mark they were. I don't actually understand why anyone would listen to these window lickers.

Brexit would prompt stock market and house price crash, says IMF
House price fall & stock market crash if “Brexit”, claim IMF
Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts
MORGAN STANLEY: Brexit would devastate the markets in just 6 months
Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England

[marton]

	Quote:
	I recall that the doom was predicted for if the UK "leaves" the EU. I don't recall either campaign, for that matter, claiming that it would happen before the official departure. My understanding was that "Project Fear" was looking at the long-term effects, not purely post referendum. The result of the referendum caused a wobble and a period of instability in the markets for a few weeks, as any political event would likely do. It would be a bit naive to say "well, it's all fine, we got past the Brexit and everything is all hunky dory" because we're not actually "post Brexit" yet, are we?

Not only that but Cameron said he would invoke Article 50 immediately after the referendum!

Every forecast was based on an immediate Brexit not the long, slow agonising death we are currently enduring!

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Nope, have a read of some of these. The IMF are particularly hilarious in how far from the mark they were. I don't actually understand why anyone would listen to these window lickers. Brexit would prompt stock market and house price crash, says IMF House price fall & stock market crash if “Brexit”, claim IMF Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts MORGAN STANLEY: Brexit would devastate the markets in just 6 months Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England

The whole campaign was a mess of lies.
I just read the first link; quote "The Tory MP Priti Patel said: “The EU-funded IMF....."
Another complete lie; the IMF does not receive one penny from the EU.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Nope, have a read of some of these. The IMF are particularly hilarious in how far from the mark they were. I don't actually understand why anyone would listen to these window lickers. Brexit would prompt stock market and house price crash, says IMF House price fall & stock market crash if “Brexit”, claim IMF Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts MORGAN STANLEY: Brexit would devastate the markets in just 6 months Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England

It kind of reaffirms my comment from a million pages ago that both campaigns were mis-sold with no clear delineation of referendum/subsequent paperwork/actual departure. Is anyone actually talking about how they think (obviously can't 100% predict) how the economy(ies) will go after the actual event, though?

Not that it really matters, now that the vote has been cast, but it would be interesting to know now that people can make a point of view to properly analyse rather having the added pressure of saying whatever bullshit* will win votes.

*Meaning bullshit from both sides.

	Quote:	marton
	slow agonising death we are currently enduring!

Slow agonising death, whilst in the real world:

UK GDP growth revised up to 0.7 per cent before EU referendum

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I know it's as old as the hills. Ok then let's use a different method. Or something else. It doesn't matter what we use because we, the U.K., can create the mechanism, not be given wha the eu decides to use.

"not be given what the eu decides to use." Not this old chestnut again; Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was created by the member nations. Sigh!

UK votes on Common Agricultural Policy reform

Quote "The UK Environment Secretary said:

Farmers in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales can be reassured that their governments have the complete freedom to deliver a CAP tailored to their needs and circumstances.

Source

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	well nissan have just kinda hinted they are looking at other options (part french owned) http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37515251 I expect toyota / bmw etc also have one eye on the door too.

Bit more of a demand than a hint...

http://news.sky.com/story/car-giant-...mpact-10599123

Banking redundancies won't be a true representation of post Brexit effects, because they're happening Worldwide regardless. It would be difficult to seperate cause and effect with that one.

It does amaze me the numbers of people who don't understand Mark Carney's quantitative easing from the BoE, how it's minimised the immediate impact and most importantly...it has to be paid back! It's like all the numpties who buy a new sofa for delivery before Christmas "with nothing to pay til April 2018", then balk when the repayments begin at whatever the interest rate is then.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Slow agonising death, whilst in the real world: UK GDP growth revised up to 0.7 per cent before EU referendum

Indeed, in Q2 2016 the exports of goods to the EU increased by £1.8 billion - you know, the EU we are leaving Source

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'm not happy about it, but neither am I upset. The biggest mistake that was made in 2008 is that non of the European big banks were allowed to go bust.

I disagree, I think the biggest mistake was to not hold those in power at the various companies personally responsible. Paying fines with other people's money won't change behaviour.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I disagree, I think the biggest mistake was to not hold those in power at the various companies personally responsible. Paying fines with other people's money won't change behaviour.

I'm not talking about fines, I'm talking about letting them go bust. Finito. Game over. I think it's absolutely wrong that big banks be propped up by public money. This "too big to fail" is utter nonsense, and state owned banks have hardly changed the way they operate, and the public purse is propping them up.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This "too big to fail" is utter nonsense

I'm not sure about that at all, interbank market virtually froze during the crises, and similar is to be expected if next time happens.

I do agree though that using taxpayer money (or any money other than stockholders and bondholders) is plain wrong, just as it was wrong to not wipe out UBS shareholders when the SNB had to step in. A real solution would be to split them to "small enough to be fail-able" size.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'm not talking about fines, I'm talking about letting them go bust. Finito. Game over. I think it's absolutely wrong that big banks be propped up by public money. This "too big to fail" is utter nonsense, and state owned banks have hardly changed the way they operate, and the public purse is propping them up.

You've noticed how all of the American Banks excluding Bear Stearns have cruised through this and almost none of the European ones?

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I'm not sure about that at all, interbank market virtually froze during the crises, and similar is to be expected if next time happens. I do agree though that using taxpayer money (or any money other than stockholders and bondholders) is plain wrong, just as it was wrong to not wipe out UBS shareholders when the SNB had to step in. A real solution would be to split them to "small enough to be fail-able" size.

Well anyone that invests their money banks is, well, a bit dim IMO. Agree that breaking up the banks should have been a minimum condition of the bailouts.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I disagree, I think the biggest mistake was to not hold those in power at the various companies personally responsible. Paying fines with other people's money won't change behaviour.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'm not talking about fines, I'm talking about letting them go bust. Finito. Game over. I think it's absolutely wrong that big banks be propped up by public money. This "too big to fail" is utter nonsense, and state owned banks have hardly changed the way they operate, and the public purse is propping them up.

I don't think this is necessarily a contradiction.

It's not the government's job to prop up private companies who gamble away their own and other people's money. Good riddance to them. Let them go broke.

But bank bosses who act irreponsibly and unethically and mislead customers and shareholders and seek to manipulate markets should by all means be held accountable privately, regardless of whether or not the company they led went broke.

True enough but in the case of the world's most powerful nation that gets put to one side. Then it's time to un-level the playing field within 'rules'.