The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Phil_MCR]

Gove sets out his vision of post-Brexit trade:

- Out of single market
- Separate trade deal with EU
- Creation of a free trade zone

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0e88d1a-0...#axzz46HfiX0se

Interesting that it mentions services being 80% of the UK economy meaning that goods-centric free trade zones are not so attractive to the UK given the dominance of services.

IMO, failing to open up service markets overseas is one of the key failings of UK trade/foreign policy.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...nent-says-gove

	Quote:
	Vote Leave contends that Britain’s trade deficit with its EU trading partners would mean they would be ready to offer tariff-free access to this free trade zone, without forcing Britain to remain a part of the single market; or to accept free movement, or make contributions to the EU budget. Speaking after Gove’s speech, his former special adviser Dominic Cummings said he had spoken to “umpteen ambassadors”, inside and outside the eurozone, who had suggested their countries would be willing to concede such a deal in the event of a vote to leave, despite the public rhetoric being very different during the campaign. Gove also ridiculed the scare tactics used by remain campaigners, warning that everything from cheap flights to European destinations to Premier League football would be jeopardised in the event of a vote to leave. “I sometimes think that the in campaign appears to be operating to a script written by George RR Martin and Stephen King – Brexit would mean a combination of A Feast for Crows and Misery,” he said, describing this approach as, “a great, grotesque, patronising and preposterous Peter Mandelsonian conceit”.

[zurich99]

I see Obama has given his opinion then,

US President Barack Obama has said Britain would go to the "back of the queue" for trade deals with the US if it votes to leave the European Union.
He said Britain was at its best when "helping to lead" a strong EU and membership made it a "bigger player" on the world stage.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36115138

Im not sure how I feel about that statement, Im an undecided, but hearing him threaten us with the back of the queue on a trade deal, really doesn't sit well with me.
How is the 'regular' person supposed to respond to that?, the people without trade knowledge, without an economics degree etc?? I dont think someone of his status can say something like that and then turn around and say, ' but hey its your choice....' of course people will consider what he says.

[Troublawesome]

He is just telling the truth, he only cares about strong allies so they can help his cause. UK will be weaker so insignificant, harsh but truthful statement.

Also shows how much of a 'friend' theya re but at least they are honest.

[AbFab]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	He is just telling the truth, he only cares about strong allies so they can help his cause. UK will be weaker so insignificant, harsh but truthful statement. Also shows how much of a 'friend' theya re but at least they are honest.

A statement from Obama that only serves to promote in the influence of the USA within the EU. Not the UK's future welfare.

How would the USA feel about being subject to dictates from Brussels??

[zurich99]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	He is just telling the truth, he only cares about strong allies so they can help his cause. UK will be weaker so insignificant, harsh but truthful statement. Also shows how much of a 'friend' theya re but at least they are honest.

this is what bothers me - we may well be better off staying, but 'our strongest Allie' seems to me like a fair-weather friend as it seems we will be kicked to curb if we are out, yeah great friend, cheers

Again, bullshit. The scramble for Iran going on at the moment, an economy the fraction of the size of the UK, shows that where there's money to be made, governments will be put under pressure to make deals.

And why does he think being a "bigger player" on the world stage should influence anyone's vote? As long as the Team World Police carries on with their current foreign policy, everyone else is merely a bit part.

[NomadAmericano]

	Quote:	zurich99
	this is what bothers me - we may well be better off staying, but 'our strongest Allie' seems to me like a fair-weather friend as it seems we will be kicked to curb if we are out, yeah great friend, cheers

Please don't confuse the sayings of a lame-duck US President, who is acknowledged as the most anti-British President in modern times, with Britain's many, true friends in the US.

Obama can say whatever he wants about queues but it means nothing. Whoever the next president is won't kick the UK to the back of the queue.

[NomadAmericano]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Again, bullshit. The scramble for Iran going on at the moment, an economy the fraction of the size of the UK, shows that where there's money to be made, governments will be put under pressure to make deals. And why does he think being a "bigger player" on the world stage should influence anyone's vote? As long as the Team World Police carries on with their current foreign policy, everyone else is merely a bit part.

Obama is essentially an isolationist, or at best, ambivalent to the US role in the world. See his lack of serious action on: Libya, China taking control of the the South China Sea, N. Korea continuing it's considerable nuke and ICBM progress, Obama's outsourcing of Syria policy to the Russians, the Russians buzzing US Navy ships at will, Iran developing nuke-capable ICBMs in violation of UN resolutions, Iran taking US Marines hostage, China hacking US governmental databases and military technology secrets, aggressive Russian and Chinese espionage in the US, etc.

He just doesn't care about these things. Hardly a World Policeman. Certainly not a Statesman.

[amogles]

	Quote:	NomadAmericano
	Please don't confuse the sayings of a lame-duck US President, who is acknowledged as the most anti-British President in modern times, with Britain's many, true friends in the US. Obama can say whatever he wants about queues but it means nothing. Whoever the next president is won't kick the UK to the back of the queue.

Where do Hillary, Ryan and Trump stand with regard to US - British relations?

[marton]

	Quote:	AbFab
	A statement from Obama that only serves to promote in the influence of the USA within the EU. Not the UK's future welfare. How would the USA feel about being subject to dictates from Brussels??

Can you give examples of the UK having been subject to dictates from Brussels??

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	amogles
	Where do Hillary, Ryan and Trump stand with regard to US - British relations?

They all want the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership to go through and they need the UK to be not only inside the EU but strong and in the middle of it.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Can you give examples of the UK having been subject to dictates from Brussels??

Precisely

[NomadAmericano]

	Quote:	amogles
	Where do Hillary, Ryan and Trump stand with regard to US - British relations?

Cruz, Ryan, or Hillary will be pro-British regardless of whether Remain or Leave carries the day on June 23rd.

Trump is harder to read (especially as he contradicts himself numerous times in a matter of minutes).

One the one hand, he's anti-trade, particularly regarding Mexico and China, and the British have crapped all over him the last few months. He is a hyper-sensitive and vindictive guy so who knows how that's affected his fragile psyche.

On the other hand, while what he thinks about trade with the UK or Canada is anyone's guess, to my knowledge he seems to view trade arrangements between equals more favorably than trade with less-developed countries, particularly Mexico and China (because of its dumping and currency manipulation).

Also, he is half-British, and obviously has great affinity for Scotland. It's hard to see him being anti-British.

But like I said, who the hell knows what is bouncing around in that head of his?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	They all want the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership to go through and they need the UK to be not only inside the EU but strong and in the middle of it.

The U.K. Has never been in the middle of the EU, and probably never will be. The U.K. Does not believe in lofty European ideals as maybe Germany does, but has always taken a pragmatic approach.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	amogles
	The U.K. Has never been in the middle of the EU, and probably never will be. The U.K. Does not believe in lofty European ideals as maybe Germany does, but has always taken a pragmatic approach.

I never said they were, I was expressing what I think is the dream of the Americans, of any party. Huge difference.
As to "pragmatic approach", it means pragmatically speaking having its cake and eat it too. That the US couldn't care less about, all that matters to the US is that EU does not develop a military force independent of nato and the transatlantic treaty because business is business. And for both of those things, the US dreams of a UK as strong as possible in the EU. The UK doesn't have to mean it, they just have to influence it the way the US wants.

[me.anon]

	Quote:	zurich99
	I see Obama has given his opinion then, US President Barack Obama has said Britain would go to the "back of the queue" for trade deals with the US if it votes to leave the European Union. He said Britain was at its best when "helping to lead" a strong EU and membership made it a "bigger player" on the world stage. . . . .

Indeed, because the US efforts to p*ss over the European project will be much more successful if it has its devout lackey, Great Britain, continuing to work tirelessly to sabotage it from within. As an outsider, it would be useless.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	zurich99
	I dont think someone of his status can say something like that and then turn around and say, ' but hey its your choice....' of course people will consider what he says.

Well why should they not consider it? Nobody should be surprised that the Americans will do what is in their own interests just like another country would! They're not going to ignore a market of about 400m reasonably wealthy individuals in favour of a smaller market.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	AbFab
	How would the USA feel about being subject to dictates from Brussels??

How can something be a dictate if your government has agreed to it??? At the end of the day there is nothing about the EU today that the British government or more precisely the Prime Minister has not in some way committed to over the past 40 years. Why was the government held accountable for this if the people did not agree?

[lewton]

	Quote:	NomadAmericano
	Please don't confuse the sayings of a lame-duck US President, who is acknowledged as the most anti-British President in modern times, with Britain's many, true friends in the US.

Which is why most people outside the UK and the US like him more than at least the previous 4 presidents.

That been said, as a big supported of a Brexit, I really hope that his tone and the fact that he even dared speak about the matter will turn some voters to vote for Brexit.

[AbFab]

	Quote:	marton
	Can you give examples of the UK having been subject to dictates from Brussels??

Commission Regulation (EC) 2257/94 Annex 1: requires that bananas be "free from malformation or abnormal curvature of the fingers"...