The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I said ALL doom and gloom mongers, not all Remainers.

OK, my neck has been duly wound back in...

	Quote:	Loz1983
	That's my point. Instead of just complaining about it, why don't some of the influential people that voted Remain accept the decision and now try and shape the future. Instead of just leaving it to the buffoons. They don't even have to be on the same side, but at least provide some opposition other than, "we shouldn't have voted to leave". Fight for soft brexit, fight for FMOP, fight for single market access, fight for what you want rather than just complaining about the result.

But the feeling now is that the "majority" voted for a hard Brexit (Brexit means Brexit) and the government doesn't want to rock the boat with all those voters who will remember a softening or watered down version when it comes to a General Election.

Campaigning for anything other than the sledgehammer departure is just shouted down with a selection of the same "leave" rhetoric used for the referendum.

Probably the next best thing is to let the hammer fall then try to salvage something after the fact.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	State Aid cases can carry financial penalty, and it isn't there for the hell of it. Its intention is to prevent EU countries from competing with each other, by limiting their range of actions. Not that I am a fan of government intervention in business, but just another example of how Brexit unties the UK's hands. Sovereignty, its called.

So you withdraw your statement that the State Aid Treaty prevents Italy and Merkel helping banks?

	Quote:
	But the feeling now is that the "majority" voted for a hard Brexit (Brexit means Brexit) and the government doesn't want to rock the boat with all those voters who will remember a softening or watered down version when it comes to a General Election. Campaigning for anything other than the sledgehammer departure is just shouted down with a selection of the same "leave" rhetoric used for the referendum. Probably the next best thing is to let the hammer fall then try to salvage something after the fact.

Perhaps, but politics is an art of compromise. It doesn't have to be simply a hard Brexit. I think FMOP was one of the things the EU got right, but I can understand why many don't like it. I'd also like to see the UK remain in the single market. If the EU are sensible with their negotiations, they'd let the UK can remain in the single market whilst allowing them to impose quotas on immigration. This would be a solution that would keep all sides happy, and it's something Remainers should be speaking up for.

The only issue in all this is that the EU isn't sensible.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	IMF in June: "Brexit will trigger a recession in the UK" IMF in October: "Britain will be fastest growing G7 economy this year" Funny thing about all the doom and gloom mongers like you is that you're just waiting and hoping for disaster. Instead of accepting the decision and trying to help shape the future for the UK after Brexit, the remoaners just sit on the side lines slinging mud.

Abusing me as a doom and gloom monger is simply avoiding the facts; try to quote some reasonable counter arguments.

"trying to help shape the future" I assume this is an attempt at humour; not even May's own Cabinet can influence her.
Mostly when they make any kind of public statement about Brexit she pops up and contradicts them.

You should learn the simple difference between quoting facts and "slinging mud".

I also post positive points like here; not my fault there are so few to post

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	IMF in June: "Brexit will trigger a recession in the UK" IMF in October: "Britain will be fastest growing G7 economy this year" Funny thing about all the doom and gloom mongers like you is that you're just waiting and hoping for disaster. Instead of accepting the decision and trying to help shape the future for the UK after Brexit, the remoaners just sit on the side lines slinging mud.

At that time Cameron was still saying Brexit would happen "swiftly". We've got a glimpse of what could have happened in such a case during the days after the vote, including real estate funds dropping 15% or more and forced to close for withdrawals.

Once it was clear that Brexit would happen in an at least somewhat orderly fashion markets returned to normal. And yet (IIRC) GDP growth prediction is still for a reduction from 2.6% to 1.1% in 2017.

Whether the still-falling GBP will have inflation rise, which may force the central bank to raise interest rates and thereby reduce GDP growth further, is yet to be seen. Macro effects usually take 2-3 calendar quarters to manifest themselves in the numbers.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Perhaps, but politics is an art of compromise. It doesn't have to be simply a hard Brexit. I think FMOP was one of the things the EU got right, but I can understand why many don't like it. I'd also like to see the UK remain in the single market. If the EU are sensible with their negotiations, they'd let the UK can remain in the single market whilst allowing them to impose quotas on immigration. This would be a solution that would keep all sides happy, and it's something Remainers should be speaking up for. The only issue in all this is that the EU isn't sensible.

The UK won't be allowed to cherry-pick. That's the only sensible way for the EU, otherwise every member state would want the same. Whether FMOP is a necessity may be open for debate but as things stand free EEA access without FMOP isn't possible. You probably know Merkel's POV, and Hollande said the same less than a day ago.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The UK won't be allowed to cherry-pick. That's the only sensible way for the EU, otherwise every member state would want the same. Whether FMOP is a necessity may be open for debate but as things stand free EEA access without FMOP isn't possible. You probably know Merkel's POV, and Hollande said the same less than a day ago.

But these are actually points that quite a few other member countries are also unhappy with. Rather than trying to defend them at all costs, if the EU was forward looking it might open an EU wide debate over some EU-wide fair and transparent quota system to replace the present no-limits FMOP. That way it wouldn't be perceived as the UK unilaterally engaging in cherry picking.

If they had done that some years ago, the whole Brexit debacle could have been avoided, but sometimes you need a shock to awake from your complacency. Maybe Brexit was that shock but Merkel and Hollande are still in denial.

	Quote:	marton
	Abusing me as a doom and gloom monger is simply avoiding the facts; try to quote some reasonable counter arguments. "trying to help shape the future" I assume this is an attempt at humour; not even May's own Cabinet can influence her. Mostly when they make any kind of public statement about Brexit she pops up and contradicts them. You should learn the simple difference between quoting facts and "slinging mud". I also post positive points like here; not my fault there are so few to post

Abusing. Lol.

	Quote:	amogles
	If they had done that some years ago, the whole Brexit debacle could have been avoided, but sometimes you need a shock to awake from your complacency. Maybe Brexit was that shock but Merkel and Hollande are still in denial.

A shock in the same way amputating at the shoulder for a chipped fingernail would be.

The biggest WTF-moment is that most people on either side of the fence are referring to it with words similar to "debacle". If only people had been more up-front at the get-go.

Facepalm-politics.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The UK won't be allowed to cherry-pick. That's the only sensible way for the EU, otherwise every member state would want the same. Whether FMOP is a necessity may be open for debate but as things stand free EEA access without FMOP isn't possible. You probably know Merkel's POV, and Hollande said the same less than a day ago.

The issue with FMOP is that it's basically been a free ticket for the East to empty and fill up the West. Imposing quotas is a sensible way of managing this, it's hardly cherry picking. But as long as the EU sees it as such then there will be no deal.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The UK won't be allowed to cherry-pick. That's the only sensible way for the EU, otherwise every member state would want the same. Whether FMOP is a necessity may be open for debate but as things stand free EEA access without FMOP isn't possible. You probably know Merkel's POV, and Hollande said the same less than a day ago.

And from the next President of the Council of Europe "UK will be treated 'like Greece' and get tough deal during Brexit talks.
Joseph Muscat expects UK to be left with 'fair' but 'inferior deal' after negotiations"

And for mud slinging;
May is like some latter day Don Quixote tilting at windmills with a broken lance; fantasy of getting a better deal from the EU when there is not one single voice of support in Europe.
She has the strength of Margaret Thatcher but not the same common sense and practicality.

She appointed four people responsible for Brexit with no clear leader and so they spend most of their time fighting turf wars.
After a quarter year she has not shown the quality of leadership to bring them together to speak with a common voice.
Every time she speaks in public sterling crashes deeper down into the cellar.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	But these are actually points that quite a few other member countries are also unhappy with. Rather than trying to defend them at all costs, if the EU was forward looking it might open an EU wide debate over some EU-wide fair and transparent quota system to replace the present no-limits FMOP. That way it wouldn't be perceived as the UK unilaterally engaging in cherry picking. If they had done that some years ago, the whole Brexit debacle could have been avoided, but sometimes you need a shock to awake from your complacency. Maybe Brexit was that shock but Merkel and Hollande are still in denial.

The EU view is that the Leave vote won because of all the lies that were spread by the Leave campaign; which happens to be an accurate view.
many sources for this but here is a good read.

The only shock for the EU was that so many people believed these lies.
Some here are still spreading the same ones

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The issue with FMOP is that it's basically been a free ticket for the East to empty and fill up the West. Imposing quotas is a sensible way of managing this, it's hardly cherry picking. But as long as the EU sees it as such then there will be no deal.

Do you have a source for this?
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey estimates for 2015 in the UK only half of the EU immigrants come out of the EU10.
Source

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	The EU view is that the Leave vote won because of all the lies that were spread by the Leave campaign; which happens to be an accurate view. many sources for this but here is a good read. The only shock for the EU was that so many people believed these lies. Some here are still spreading the same ones

So they're assuming the people they are negotiating with are a bunch of liars?

Not exacly the best starting position if you want to have a frank discussion.

	Quote:	marton
	And from the next President of the Council of Europe "UK will be treated 'like Greece' and get tough deal during Brexit talks. Joseph Muscat expects UK to be left with 'fair' but 'inferior deal' after negotiations"

But unlike Greece (who btw simply ignored their referendum), the UK will have no problem in sticking two fingers up and going their own way.

It's this sort of talk that is shows just how pig headed the EU is. Do they not see that no deal is also bad for them? They'll have a 10% budget hole to fill, all those companies that export to the UK to satisfy, all those EU citizens currently residing in UK whose futures need securing.

It doesn't matter though, in the end it's this level of inflexibility that will lead to the EU's downfall.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	And from the next President of the Council of Europe "UK will be treated 'like Greece' and get tough deal during Brexit talks. Joseph Muscat expects UK to be left with 'fair' but 'inferior deal' after negotiations"

It appears that Ms. May has already decided the outcome... Access to the single market requires acceptance of European court decisions on single market issues and FMOP. Refusal to accept these requirements means there is nothing to negotiate about. The idea of a country accessing the market and not being subject to it's legal requirements is not going to fly and nor are changes to FMOP without a treaty change.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	But unlike Greece (who btw simply ignored their referendum), the UK will have no problem in sticking two fingers up and going their own way.

With 48% of it's exports bound for the EU, many people will find it anything but easy!

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's this sort of talk that is shows just how pig headed the EU is.

Well the UK could be flexible, after all they are the ones that want access to the market. The idea that they can have all the benefits without paying their dues is most definitely cause for the EU to say no.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do they not see that no deal is also bad for them? They'll have a 10% budget hole to fill, all those companies that export to the UK to satisfy, all those EU citizens currently residing in UK whose futures need securing.

A basic mistake is of the UK is to assume while they stand up for their principles, everyone else can be bought.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The issue with FMOP is that it's basically been a free ticket for the East to empty and fill up the West. Imposing quotas is a sensible way of managing this, it's hardly cherry picking. But as long as the EU sees it as such then there will be no deal.

Of course it is bloody cherry picking. The establishment of the single market is based on the FMOP as one of it's principles. Seeking to avoid that is nothing but cherry picking.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Of course it is bloody cherry picking. The establishment of the single market is based on the FMOP as one of it's principles. Seeking to avoid that is nothing but cherry picking.

The single market was established long before FMOP. Quotas would be a compromise by allowing FMOP, but not unlimited FMOP. Cherry picking would be demanding access with no FMOP whatsoever.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	But unlike Greece (who btw simply ignored their referendum), the UK will have no problem in sticking two fingers up and going their own way. It's this sort of talk that is shows just how pig headed the EU is. Do they not see that no deal is also bad for them? They'll have a 10% budget hole to fill, all those companies that export to the UK to satisfy, all those EU citizens currently residing in UK whose futures need securing. It doesn't matter though, in the end it's this level of inflexibility that will lead to the EU's downfall.

These messages of "steadfastness" and "resolve" from the EU is mere posturing to distract from their actual incompetence and inability. The fact of the matter is they don't have control over their own situation. They couldn't negotiate a deal even if they wanted to. Just crabs in a bucket at this stage trying to prevent the UK from escaping.