The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But the U.K. is not a member of the WTO and membership is not like taking out a subscription at the local gym. According to the WTO website it takes on average 5 years to complete the process and all existing members must agreed. Furthermore it seems difficult to impossible for a non member to enter in to a trade agreement with a member and presumably attempting to do so would not further ones membership application! It looks like we are looking at a period of possible up to seven years of uncertainty which is not good for business.

Thanks

Relevant confirmatory quote from the ft
"Can the UK just go ahead and trade under WTO terms as soon as it leaves the EU?

No. In practice, the UK would have to detach itself from the EU and regularise its position within the WTO before it could sign its own trade agreements, including with the EU.
As Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO’s director-general, said recently, there is no precedent for a WTO member extricating itself from an economic union while inside the organisation.
The process would not be easy and would likely take years before the UK’s WTO position was settled, not least because all other member states would have to agree."

Source

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	As for a second independence referendum that shouldn't be allowed to happen for at least 10-15 years. She can't keep trying to get the result she wants, just because the people of Scotland - who she claims to represent - didn't agree with her.

Since 55% of the votes were in favor of staying in the UK vs 62% were for Remain, it's fair if she wants to ask "which if the two has higher priority" as the landscape has shifted fundamentally, or will do so within the next five years. If the result were to stay in the EU rater than in the UK preparatory actions can't start too soon.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Some good little charts in The Economist... http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph.../daily-chart-6 http://www.economist.com/news/britai...brexit-bregret

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Since 55% of the votes were in favor of staying in the UK vs 62% were for Remain, it's fair if she wants to ask "which if the two has higher priority" as the landscape has shifted fundamentally, or will do so within the next five years. If the result were to stay in the EU rater than in the UK preparatory actions can't start too soon.

its a non existent story anyway. the scots wouldnt hold another referendum currently anyway, they would lose it by miles. Sturgeon knows this, its just a morale booster for the party conference.

These pesky experts are a right nuisance hey:

https://www.facebook.com/OpenBritain...6877825685873/

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	These pesky experts are a right nuisance hey: https://www.facebook.com/OpenBritain...6877825685873/

looks like Britains stuffed if you ask me. I wish she had done the government bit during the campaign instead of George Osborne!

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	its a non existent story anyway. the scots wouldnt hold another referendum currently anyway, they would lose it by miles. Sturgeon knows this, its just a morale booster for the party conference.

She's certainly aware that there won't be a new vote tomorrow. But unless she keeps pounding the table there won't be one next week either, and if there is indeed a 2nd one the sooner the better for Scotland.

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Honestly, does this woman live in cloud cuckoo land? http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-37671236 The UK as a whole voted to leave the EU, that means the single market, freedom of movement and everything else. Or is she so desperate to ignore the will of the people of the UK that she'll keep coming up with crazy ideas. Like it or not Scotland is part of the UK and she'll get no separate trade agreements with the EU. Only if Scotland leaves the UK and then there'll be a whole bunch of new problems for her to deal with. Good luck with that. As for a second independence referendum that shouldn't be allowed to happen for at least 10-15 years. She can't keep trying to get the result she wants, just because the people of Scotland - who she claims to represent - didn't agree with her.

I'm not sure if the EU is keen on having a Scotland without the rest of the UK as a member.
After all, the UK is/was a (smallish) net payer - the chances of Scotland becoming one of those are rather slim, AFAIK.
As such it would mean to have yet another sucker at the (EU-) teat.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	She's certainly aware that there won't be a new vote tomorrow. But unless she keeps pounding the table there won't be one next week either, and if there is indeed a 2nd one the sooner the better for Scotland.

she doesnt even want one. they would lose by miles more than before. Oil has tanked, without the huge amounts they get from the rest of the UK they would sink like a stone.

its just grandstanding.

the falling pound has nothing to do with BREXIT:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...d-freedom.html

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	the falling pound has nothing to do with BREXIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...d-freedom.html

I doubt the projected increase in the cost of of retail goods of 15 billion GBP next year would be happening without the Brexit driven dive of sterling.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/new...forecasts.html

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	the falling pound has nothing to do with BREXIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...d-freedom.html

"Everyone who understands the issue knows this."



Who to believe? A Daily Mail columnist or the Financial Times?

The pound’s longer, sharper Brexit shock
Pound’s fall is a reality check for Theresa May . . . and investors

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	the falling pound has nothing to do with BREXIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...d-freedom.html

Well believed that if you want... but the idea that the economy was crap and your votes have not made it any worse does not fly. Loosing preferential access to a wealthy market where 48% of your export are bound for, creating uncertainty an so on, of course it has an impact - it has multiplied the problems and speeded up the rate of decline if you follow the author's lead.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	she doesnt even want one. they would lose by miles more than before. Oil has tanked, without the huge amounts they get from the rest of the UK they would sink like a stone. its just grandstanding.

Only thing is the logical economic argument did not win the day in the last referendum did it? And given the way things are going Scotland can't expect large cash injections in the coming years.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	The UK as a whole voted to leave the EU, that means the single market, freedom of movement and everything else. Or is she so desperate to ignore the will of the people of the UK that she'll keep coming up with crazy ideas.

An independent Scotland with EFTA/EEA membership might tick all the boxes:
- access to the market
- no Euro
- no EU membership issues
- Since it is a small country Norway is unlikely to have concerns about EFTA membership.

	Quote:
	Like it or not Scotland is part of the UK and she'll get no separate trade agreements with the EU. Only if Scotland leaves the UK and then there'll be a whole bunch of new problems for her to deal with. Good luck with that.

But we already have precedence for extra territorial customs unions and in deed one of Brussels proposals to avoid an Irish veto is to do the same for NI. And if that were to happen it would be hard to deny it to Scotland!

	Quote:
	As for a second independence referendum that shouldn't be allowed to happen for at least 10-15 years. She can't keep trying to get the result she wants, just because the people of Scotland - who she claims to represent - didn't agree with her.

That is the thing about democracy people are entitled to change their minds.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	the falling pound has nothing to do with BREXIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...d-freedom.html

There's a lovely little feature of XE Currency Converter that I suggest you make yourself familiar with. When you get the exchange chart up for the last 1yr or 2yrs, then Go Ogle the dates when certain announcements were made with regards to Brexit, there's an 'amazing' drop in the value of Sterling. Just click on the chart and run your curser along the line. The time and date of that rate will show at the top of the screen.

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=USD&view=1Y

23 June 2016 00:00 UTC GBP/USD Close: 1.49036

25 June 2016 00:00 UTC GBP/USD Close: 1.36834

27 June 2016 00:00 UTC GBP/USD Close: 1.32241

16 October 2016 16:18 UTC GBP/USD Close: 1.21900

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Honestly, does this woman live in cloud cuckoo land? http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-37671236 The UK as a whole voted to leave the EU, that means the single market, freedom of movement and everything else. Or is she so desperate to ignore the will of the people of the UK that she'll keep coming up with crazy ideas. Like it or not Scotland is part of the UK and she'll get no separate trade agreements with the EU. Only if Scotland leaves the UK and then there'll be a whole bunch of new problems for her to deal with. Good luck with that. As for a second independence referendum that shouldn't be allowed to happen for at least 10-15 years. She can't keep trying to get the result she wants, just because the people of Scotland - who she claims to represent - didn't agree with her.

" desperate to ignore the will of the people of the UK " No, I assume she simply does not want to ignore the will of the people of Scotland "who she claims to represent"; remember Scotland voted to Remain.

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	she doesnt even want one. they would lose by miles more than before. Oil has tanked, without the huge amounts they get from the rest of the UK they would sink like a stone. its just grandstanding.

"without the huge amounts they get from the rest of the UK " Do you have any evidence these subsidies will continue? Cornwall, Wales, Meryside, South Yorkshire and the North East will also now have their hands out after the EU grants stop!

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	she doesnt even want one. they would lose by miles more than before.

So far these are unsubstianted claims. Source? Or is it just you pounding your chest?

As for Scotland, according to Wiki per capita GDP is just a few k below UK GDP, like £28k vs 30k. However this is based on just a very quick check, looking forward to your hopefully more accurate numbers and links.

[marton]

Irish leaders have warned of an economic “disaster” on both sides of the border without decisive action to confront the effects of Britain’s impending departure from the EU.

Amid warnings of “incalculable consequences” for the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland as the Brexit process unfolds, Ireland’s prime minister Enda Kenny will convene an unprecedented cross-border summit of political leaders to consider what steps to take.

Source

Shame that Ireland is being sucked into this financial black hole!

.................................................. .

Offshore secrets of Brexit backer Arron Banks revealed in Panama Papers
Financier who spent £7.5m funding Nigel Farage’s Leave.
EU campaign linked to tax haven companies in British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar

Source

You would think a smart guy like that could figure out a way to make Brexit a success?

£7.5m Brexit funding!! Maybe he paid for the "NHS" bus.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	These pesky experts are a right nuisance hey: https://www.facebook.com/OpenBritain...6877825685873/

The word access is used, when 'free access' is what meant, quite sad really that she does not understand the difference. With the fall in the £ I say roll on a hard BREXIT at that would be hugely advantageous to the UK. You could not make this shit up