The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The word access is used, when 'free access' is what meant, quite sad really that she does not understand the difference. With the fall in the £ I say roll on a hard BREXIT at that would be hugely advantageous to the UK. You could not make this shit up

Whole thing is bizarre!

From the ft today "Britain would continue to pay billions of pounds into the EU budget after Brexit to maintain cherished single-market access for the City of London under plans being discussed by Theresa May's cabinet".

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Shame that Ireland is being sucked into this financial black hole!

I think what this shows is that there are small firms on both sides of the border and probably on mainland UK who's export market is 100% CTA bases and stand to see 100% of their market wiped out by this decision. And of course for NI it is a double hit with it's dependence on EU subsidies. A hard exit will have a major impact and as usual it's the little people that will have to take the hit!

On the other hand Ireland has come a long way, when they joined the EU, UK exports represented 55% of their total exports, where as to day it is down to about 14% and it looks like Belgium will surpass the UK as it's primary export market in the coming months.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	So far these are unsubstianted claims. Source? Or is it just you pounding your chest? As for Scotland, according to Wiki per capita GDP is just a few k below UK GDP, like £28k vs 30k. However this is based on just a very quick check, looking forward to your hopefully more accurate numbers and links.

No, nothing official. Scotland trades more with the U.K. than the eu, it gets loads of money from the U.K. Government, oil has collapsed, it couldn't just join the euro, it would be a poor outpost going quickly bust. Polls show more people would reject independence now than when the first referendum took place (I found some economist article on that).

Nothing official though, could all be bollocks.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Whole thing is bizarre! From the ft today "Britain would continue to pay billions of pounds into the EU budget after Brexit to maintain cherished single-market access for the City of London under plans being discussed by Theresa May's cabinet".

It is definitely hard to understand the thinking... There are two requirements for single market access: acceptance of ECJ decisions and FMOP neither of which they want and yet there are costing out a plan to access the financial services market and that would most likely include submitting to the EBA and the ESMA on top of that!

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	Mikers
	No, nothing official. Scotland trades more with the U.K. than the eu, it gets loads of money from the U.K. Government, oil has collapsed, it couldn't just join the euro, it would be a poor outpost going quickly bust.

You don't go bust in the EU. You get a bailout and an austerity package (or two, or three, or as many as it takes...).
;-)

Should Hard Brexiters living abroad be forcibly repatriated and experience the effects - perhaps ? Of course without taking with them their Swiss wage or unemployment benefits...

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	Offshore secrets of Brexit backer Arron Banks revealed in Panama Papers Financier who spent £7.5m funding Nigel Farage’s Leave. EU campaign linked to tax haven companies in British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar Source You would think a smart guy like that could figure out a way to make Brexit a success? £7.5m Brexit funding!! Maybe he paid for the "NHS" bus.

My OH reckons the entire Brexit debarcle is based upon someone or something wanting to test Sterling. Somebody is making an absolute fortune with this, and looking at this Banks guy, maybe it's him.

As someone who wouldn't relieve myself on Farage if he was burning, you have to question the motives of anyone who would 'donate' £7.5million to him. It's not for sex, fame or power, so it must be for money.

[Blueangel]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...e-falling.html


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7057636.html

http://qz.com/635700/how-to-make-mon...ut-foreigners/

They're literally laughing all the way to the bank.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...e-falling.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7057636.html http://qz.com/635700/how-to-make-mon...ut-foreigners/ They're literally laughing all the way to the bank.

from the first article

	Quote:
	He has a £150,000 Palladian chicken coop at his Gloucestershire home

why is this in the header of an article?

	Quote:
	Should Hard Brexiters living abroad be forcibly repatriated and experience the effects - perhaps ? Of course without taking with them their Swiss wage or unemployment benefits...

We've already discussed that pre vote. The answer is of course yes but they don't see it that way and get quite upset that we suggest it.

Strangely they're not prepared to put their money where their mouth is.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	from the first article why is this in the header of an article?

Either to impress the DM's target market, to emphasis his ostentatiousness, or to send the rest of googling what the damned thing would look like. I hear 'Palladian' and think of Buckingham Palace, but I also know the difference between a Corinthian and Doric column (geek). Many people don't, and I join them in thinking what a prize p**** this guy must be.

	Quote:
	Should Hard Brexiters living abroad be forcibly repatriated and experience the effects - perhaps ? Of course without taking with them their Swiss wage or unemployment benefits...

I can't, thanks to EU FMOP rules. I married a non-EU person, you see, and they have to cut immigration somewhere.

But thanks for the suggestion.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	My OH reckons the entire Brexit debarcle is based upon someone or something wanting to test Sterling. Somebody is making an absolute fortune with this, and looking at this Banks guy, maybe it's him. As someone who wouldn't relieve myself on Farage if he was burning, you have to question the motives of anyone who would 'donate' £7.5million to him. It's not for sex, fame or power, so it must be for money.

George Osbourne promised a yes to BREXIT would cause stealing to fall 20% & falls in house prices I think the remain voters realised how attractive this was to many people, especially the parent's of adult children living at home.

Add some inflation & Britons debt would look more manageable, every cloud has a silver lining.

[marton]

From the ft and from the gone but not forgotten...
Nick Clegg warns of crippling rises in food and wine prices if we leave EU without trade deal.

Mr Clegg, now the Lib Dems’ EU spokesman, will publish a new report warning of crippling trade tariffs (under World Trade Organisation rules the same tariffs will have to be slapped onto products imported from Europe) which will slap 59% onto the price of beef, 40% on cheese, 38% on chocolate and 14% on wine if we do not get a trade deal in two years.

“The only way the Government will be able to avoid this outcome is if it maintains Britain’s membership of the Single Market,” Mr Clegg said.

Source (actually from the Mirror for people who do not want the ft paywall).

I do not really understand this? How will the UK be forced to apply import tariffs especially when we are not yet WTO members? Hopefully somebody here can explain, please?

	Quote:
	I do not really understand this? How will the UK be forced to apply import tariffs especially when we are not yet WTO members? Hopefully somebody here can explain, please?

Sounds like BS (or at least a screwed up quote) to me. AFAIK WTO specifies maximum tariffs and not manditory ones.

	Quote:
	Well done this man http://www.lbc.co.uk/…/repentant-lea...chokes…/

What a bed wetter. Imagine him in the blitz.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I have absolutely no shadow of a doubt that if the referendum was run again now, knowing what we do now, the result would be Remain, and by a reasonable margin.

It wouldn't. Leave would win again, and with a bigger margin. Despite the daily output of lip quivering opinion pieces in the Grauniad.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...jority-8283139

	Quote:	marton
	We need to take Brexit seriously - according to an Ipsos MORI study today; in Britain, immigration is the number one worry, and we have the highest reported level of worry about immigration of any country included in the study (42%).

Sovereignty was the main reason that people voted leave not immigration. See link above. Remainers always want to make this about immigration.

	Quote:	marton
	Irish leaders have warned of an economic “disaster” on both sides of the border without decisive action to confront the effects of Britain’s impending departure from the EU. Amid warnings of “incalculable consequences” for the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland as the Brexit process unfolds, Ireland’s prime minister Enda Kenny will convene an unprecedented cross-border summit of political leaders to consider what steps to take. Shame that Ireland is being sucked into this financial black hole!

But but, won't the EU ride in on a great white horse and save the day for Ireland?

	Quote:	marton
	From the ft and from the gone but not forgotten... Nick Clegg warns of crippling rises in food and wine prices if we leave EU without trade deal. Mr Clegg, now the Lib Dems’ EU spokesman, will publish a new report warning of crippling trade tariffs (under World Trade Organisation rules the same tariffs will have to be slapped onto products imported from Europe) which will slap 59% onto the price of beef, 40% on cheese, 38% on chocolate and 14% on wine if we do not get a trade deal in two years. “The only way the Government will be able to avoid this outcome is if it maintains Britain’s membership of the Single Market,” Mr Clegg said.

It's a good thing the UK doesn't produce cheese or chocolate. Funny that this is being led by Clegg and Miliband, who's biggest claim to fame is the complete destruction of their respective parties.

So, with all this resolute faith in democracy in the UK, I think we can confidently and unequivocally say that Brexit voters would have shut up and put up with a result had it not gone in their favour.

Am I right?

Whatever anyone says, or reads in their chosen piece of trash / high brow / mainstream / social media - immigration was one of the main topics which made the minds up of a whopping segment of voters.

Yes, there were other factors including these mysterious laws that the UK can now "take control" of but anyone who thinks immigration didn't play a major role is deluding themselves.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It wouldn't. Leave would win again, and with a bigger margin. Despite the daily output of lip quivering opinion pieces in the Grauniad. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...jority-8283139

First of all that was immediately after the vote.

And of course that poll isn't representative. For all that's known they could have performed half a dozen non-representative polls and picked the single one that makes the best story.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	I do not really understand this? How will the UK be forced to apply import tariffs especially when we are not yet WTO members? Hopefully somebody here can explain, please?

"And he [Clegg] said that under world Trade Organisation rules the same tariffs [the EU applies] will have to be slapped onto products imported from Europe"

Reciprocity.

One problem being that, apparently, UK WTO membership currently sales under the conditions governing the EU, which is why rules post-Brexit have to be negotiated anew. So theoretically UK could perhaps do as they please, but of course that would make WTO negotiations all the harder (and give reason for WTO fines). OTOH, playing nice unilaterally would take away all incentives for the other WTO members to reach an agreement soon in the first place.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What a bed wetter. Imagine him in the blitz. It wouldn't. Leave would win again, and with a bigger margin. Despite the daily output of lip quivering opinion pieces in the Grauniad. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...jority-8283139 Sovereignty was the main reason that people voted leave not immigration. See link above. Remainers always want to make this about immigration. But but, won't the EU ride in on a great white horse and save the day for Ireland? It's a good thing the UK doesn't produce cheese or chocolate. Funny that this is being led by Clegg and Miliband, who's biggest claim to fame is the complete destruction of their respective partyies.

"Sovereignty was the main reason that people voted leave not immigration. Remainers always want to make this about immigration."
May already announced she will limit EU immigrants, who is going to tell her she is solving the wrong problem?

May has announced she will manage Brexit without consulting Parliament; so this is Sovereignty? - I thought it meant "the sovereignty of Parliament"?

"It's a good thing the UK doesn't produce cheese or chocolate" Well informed as usual.