The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

MEP Steven Woolfe quits UKIP

Following his stay in hospital. Looks like this spells the beginning of the end for UKIP. I guess it could be argued the referendum spelled the end for them. They've certainly served their purpose.

A canny politician would re-name them and re-brand them as a party to appeal to the working classes who have been forgotten by all the other parties. There's millions of former Labour voters just waiting to be hoovered up.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	A canny politician would re-name them and re-brand them as a party to appeal to the working classes who have been forgotten by all the other parties. There's millions of former Labour voters just waiting to be hoovered up.

Lenin?

... or the other lot that hoovered 1000s in the 30s ...

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	MEP Steven Woolfe quits UKIP Following his stay in hospital. Looks like this spells the beginning of the end for UKIP. I guess it could be argued the referendum spelled the end for them. They've certainly served their purpose. A canny politician would re-name them and re-brand them as a party to appeal to the working classes who have been forgotten by all the other parties. There's millions of former Labour voters just waiting to be hoovered up.

UKIP seems to have blown a great opportunity.

Many right wing parties implode due to faction fighting; may also explain this failure.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	MEP Steven Woolfe quits UKIP Following his stay in hospital. Looks like this spells the beginning of the end for UKIP. I guess it could be argued the referendum spelled the end for them. They've certainly served their purpose. A canny politician would re-name them and re-brand them as a party to appeal to the working classes who have been forgotten by all the other parties. There's millions of former Labour voters just waiting to be hoovered up.

They've reinvented and recycled themselves a few times since the early 1990s. Always ends up in chaos and infighting then they come out with a new name and a renewed set of bandwagon politics and they're up and running again.

They are a massively popular party in the UK. Despite the one seat they hold they got almost 4 million votes in the last election.

I don't think this is the end of them, they are the equivalent of the unflushable poo of the political parties.

[marton]

From today's ft "US business group warns Brexit threatens $590bn in investment
US Chamber of Commerce says Brexiter claims of relatively low EU exit costs are ‘nonsense’ "

Source Might be behind paywall)
Source (no paywall)

The Confederation of British Industry, the British Chambers of Commerce and the Institute of Directors – the three main organisations representing large British businesses – have told The Independent proposals to prevent low-skilled migrants entering the UK could cause problems for companies who rely on their labour and raise prices for consumers.

Source

The US will not start bilateral trade negotiations with the UK before it makes a decision on its relationship with the EU, according to the Government's trade representative.
John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, has previously said at a meeting with Boris Johnson that it would be physically impossible to negotiate a deal with the UK while it remains part of the EU.

Source

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	marton
	From today's ft "US business group warns Brexit threatens $590bn in investment US Chamber of Commerce says Brexiter claims of relatively low EU exit costs are ‘nonsense’ " Source Might be behind paywall) Source (no paywall) The Confederation of British Industry, the British Chambers of Commerce and the Institute of Directors – the three main organisations representing large British businesses – have told The Independent proposals to prevent low-skilled migrants entering the UK could cause problems for companies who rely on their labour and raise prices for consumers. Source The US will not start bilateral trade negotiations with the UK before it makes a decision on its relationship with the EU, according to the Government's trade representative. John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, has previously said at a meeting with Boris Johnson that it would be physically impossible to negotiate a deal with the UK while it remains part of the EU. Source

This from a country that's how many trillions in debt?

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	This from a country that's how many trillions in debt?

And what has that to do with the price of fish? (thanks to EFer who reminded me of this phrase )

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	marton
	And what has that to do with the price of fish? (thanks to EFer who reminded me of this phrase )

Well, would you trust their financial advice given the size of the debt? Not me.

Anyway, it's all speculation. Until we actually do the deed, no one can say for sure whether it will cost, what it will cost, etc.

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Well, would you trust their financial advice given the size of the debt? Not me. Anyway, it's all speculation. Until we actually do the deed, no one can say for sure whether it will cost, what it will cost, etc.

I thought it was the Govt. who ran up the debt and not businesses?

[Cata1yst]

	Quote:	marton
	I thought it was the Govt. who ran up the debt and not businesses?

Depends how you class Qualitative Easing given to banks.

[marton]

	Quote:	Cata1yst
	Depends how you class Qualitative Easing given to banks.

The Federal Reserve Banks are Government instruments.

[blum22]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Well, would you trust their financial advice given the size of the debt? Not me. Anyway, it's all speculation. Until we actually do the deed, no one can say for sure whether it will cost, what it will cost, etc.

I think the size of the country could matter a bit in this debt size comparison. From these tables (gathered from various sources, maybe not the most reliable) the UK isn't doing much better, especially if you look at normalized numbers!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...by_public_debt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._external_debt

[marton]

UK inflation at 1%!
Rising prices for clothes, hotel rooms and petrol have led to the highest rate of inflation in nearly two years, official figures show.
Inflation rose to 1.0% in September, up from 0.6% in August.

September's inflation figure has traditionally been crucial because it decided what rate benefits would increase by in the following year.
However, with the government having frozen many benefits and tax credits until 2020, many families will no longer see them keep up with rising prices.

Rising prices will "undoubtedly be tough on those with low incomes," said Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Economists have predicted the cost of household items will rise further, particularly when the fall in the pound makes food and clothing from abroad more expensive.

Source

[lewton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...e-falling.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7057636.html http://qz.com/635700/how-to-make-mon...ut-foreigners/ They're literally laughing all the way to the bank.

Are you against people investing their money any way they want?
Before the referendum I advised all my friends in the UK to change a part of their money to EUR and wait until after the referendum. Most of them laughed me off. Guess who was laughing when their summer holidays were 10-20% more expensive.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	UKIP seems to have blown a great opportunity. Many right wing parties implode due to faction fighting; may also explain this failure.

Most right wing parties eventually implode due to faction fighting because they achieve just about 0 percent of their objectives. It is actually workable for a party to be about fundamental opposition, and achieve nothings as long as that is party of their philospphy. Where it goes wrong is when you get people who raise hopes and say that huge successes and upswings in popularity are just around the corner if only everybody makes a bigger effort. There is only so often you can raise people's hopes and expect them to put in an extra effort if you don't at some point actually deliver the success you were promising. After a while people start asking, why are all these predictions never coming true You get factions blaming one another for that and finally taking down the party in the process.

UKIP seems to be the opposte of that. They achieved their most important goal and are now going into meltdown because they were a single issue party and that issue is delivered. Voters turned to UKIP for campaigning and stirring things up. But now that the decison is taken, they trust the Tories more when it comes to actually implementing the Brexit in a cool heading and sensible way. If May & Co are struggling right now, you can bet that UKIP would be in even more dire straits.

If for any reasn the Brexit doesn't happen, you can expect UKIP to come back in full swing. But otherwise I don't see what role there is for them to play.

That's not to say individuals from UKIP won't continue to be active in some form or other, or even that there isn't a need for a right wing party to the right of the Tories. But I doubt that UKIP can seamlessly slip into that role.

[marton]

Sometimes European Court decisions can be good for consumers!

"Germany's system of setting fixed prices for prescription-only medication is in breach of EU law, the bloc's top court ruled Wednesday, arguing that it restricts the free movement of goods.

A German self-help organization had teamed up with a Dutch mail-order pharmacy to provide Parkinsons patients with discounts on their medication.

This was challenged by Germany's Centre for Protection against Unfair Competition, in a case that was ultimately referred to the European Court of Justice."

Source (strange source! I just saw this news item in German TV)

Looks like the German authorities shot themselves in the foot by challenging this self help.

Currently in my experience German medicine prices are at least half Swiss prices; so am now looking forward to even better prices.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	marton
	Sometimes European Court decisions can be good for consumers! "Germany's system of setting fixed prices for prescription-only medication is in breach of EU law, the bloc's top court ruled Wednesday, arguing that it restricts the free movement of goods. A German self-help organization had teamed up with a Dutch mail-order pharmacy to provide Parkinsons patients with discounts on their medication. This was challenged by Germany's Centre for Protection against Unfair Competition, in a case that was ultimately referred to the European Court of Justice." Source (strange source! I just saw this news item in German TV) Looks like the German authorities shot themselves in the foot by challenging this self help. Currently in my experience German medicine prices are at least half Swiss prices; so am now looking forward to even better prices.

Would this also affect the UK's set fee for prescriptions?

[marton]

I doubt the UK's revered leaders could organise a piss-up in a brewery?

Anyway sterling is up after today's news; "Parliament has the right to reject the final Brexit deal, No.10 has indicated for the first time – raising the possibility that Britain’s EU exit could yet be halted.

Downing Street agreed it is “very likely” that MPs and peers will be given a vote once the withdrawal negotiations are finished, after the issue arose in the High Court."

Source

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	UK inflation at 1%! Rising prices for clothes, hotel rooms and petrol have led to the highest rate of inflation in nearly two years, official figures show. Inflation rose to 1.0% in September, up from 0.6% in August.

I don't think that's the falling pound, that won't manifest itself in inflation figures before next year. The rising oil price earlier this year looks like a much more probably cause.