The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Top banks planning to move abroad over Brexit fears - banking boss The hands of Britain's biggest banks are "quivering over the relocate button" over Brexit fears, a banking boss warns.

http://news.sky.com/story/top-banks-...-boss-10629202

In the meantime in Switzerland (also relevant to frontaliers thread):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_fb

Guardian/Observer - banks are evil organisations, all bankers are wankers, banks are to blame for the worlds woes.

Guardian/Observer - The banks are leaving the U.K. due to brexit, boohoohoo.

The Guardian view on the bankers: blame from the bottom-up

Jeremy Corbyn is right to blame the banks, not Labour, for the financial crisis

Who's to blame for the crisis, bankers or benefit claimants?

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	http://news.sky.com/story/top-banks-...-boss-10629202

The worst bit is the last line in the Independent column on it where the Banker guy says that both Britain and Europe financial institutions will be worse off for it but that's something the EU politicians would be prepared the do to hurt the UK. Incredible really.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Let's just say that this chain of events did happen based upon a Supreme Court ruling at the end of the year, what do you reckon would be a realistic time scale? Could we see a March general election, or do you reckon that would be avoided because of the end of the tax year, etc...? Personally, I think another May election.

I tend to agree with you, but we will have to wait for the ruling.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	The worst bit is the last line in the Independent column on it where the Banker guy says that both Britain and Europe financial institutions will be worse off for it but that's something the EU politicians would be prepared the do to hurt the UK. Incredible really.

I noticed that line too, but what I find incredible is that the banker seems to think it will hurt the EU as much as it will the UK. If the UK loose passporting the we can expect that the banks will either client support operations within the EU to support their customers. Which produces a few positives for the EU perspective:
- Customers continue to receive the services they need
- New tax stream for the countries concerned
- New jobs depending I guess on how many UK staff would be willing to move and can get permits
- The transaction tax would be much easier to impose
- And the banks would be under closer supervision of the EU institutions

Presumable what would be left behind is the securitisation etc, the risk stuff in other words because the UK is a less regulated market place. Which is precisely the kind of stuff you'd prefer the UK citizens to be on the hook for if you are an EU taxpayer.

So I have the distinct impression that the people who have the most to loose is the bankers not the citizens of the UK or the EU if the deal does not go through.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	The worst bit is the last line in the Independent column on it where the Banker guy says that both Britain and Europe financial institutions will be worse off for it but that's something the EU politicians would be prepared the do to hurt the UK. Incredible really.

You didn't read correctly, Browne is talking about trade barriers in these paragraphs.

I don't see how EU will be hurt if the UK loses passporting, two years is plenty to move the respective offices to EU countries.

[marton]

Amusing title "The crew are cutting each other’s throats on Mrs May’s leaking ship"

Not sure how much of the article is accurate but it is true that they don't yet talk with one voice.

Source

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	You didn't read correctly, Browne is talking about trade barriers in these paragraphs. I don't see how EU will be hurt if the UK loses passporting, two years is plenty to move the respective offices to EU countries.

There is pain for the eu and UK. The eurocrats put principle above money. This is his point and mine also.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Brexit divorce talks will be in French? EU are kidding, right? Oh dear!

Ouch, too good to be true though! I'd love to see that happen, honestly. Some people need to learn a little modesty.

	Quote:	marton
	Amusing title "The crew are cutting each other’s throats on Mrs May’s leaking ship" Not sure how much of the article is accurate but it is true that they don't yet talk with one voice. Source

Meanwhile, in the real world:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/ar...ting-intention

The Guardian is really just a shitrag that dodges taxes, loses tens of millions a year whilst telling you you're a Nazi.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	There is pain for the eu and UK. The eurocrats put principle above money. This is his point and mine also.

I agree, there will be, perhaps lots. Which obviously confirms the notion that Brexit is an economical negative for the UK, thank you for making Remainer's case. Though I'm not convinced if there will be a significant amount of pain for the EU, almost three years for companies to adapt should be enough in most every case.

The UK knew before the vote that EEA access is seen as an inseperable unit with FMOP (and the other three freedoms) by the EU. Mind, I don't agree with that axiom but the fact remains. Complaining now that the EU upholds this priciple is devoid of logic, it does confirm however the assumption that the voters didn't know the consequences of what they voted for. Or that they ignore reality.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Though I'm not convinced if there will be a significant amount of pain for the EU

Just the small matter of a 10% budget hole to fill. More in real terms as the UK contributes far more than what they take out.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I agree, there will be, perhaps lots. Which obviously confirms the notion that Brexit is an economical negative for the UK, thank you for making Remainer's case. Though I'm not convinced if there will be a significant amount of pain for the EU, almost three years for companies to adapt should be enough in most every case. The UK knew before the vote that EEA access is seen as an inseperable unit with FMOP (and the other three freedoms) by the EU. Mind, I don't agree with that axiom but the fact remains. Complaining now that the EU upholds this priciple is devoid of logic, it does confirm however the assumption that the voters didn't know the consequences of what they voted for. Or that they ignore reality.

I don't know, no one does at this stage. Even if we'd voted the other way it's the same principle you can't predict the future, we might have been much better off in, or worse off. I do think in the end though that business will trump politics whatever principles of the eu that might mean get overrun.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Just the small matter of a 10% budget hole to fill. More in real terms as the UK contributes far more than what they take out.

You're ignoring what UK receives from the EU in return, net contributions are about half that.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	You're ignoring what UK receives from the EU in return, net contributions are about half that.

The UK is the second largest net contributor behind Germany. There are only 10 members that contribute to the EU more than what they take out. The EU is going to have to plug this hole somehow.

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I don't know, no one does at this stage. Even if we'd voted the other way it's the same principle you can't predict the future, we might have been much better off in, or worse off. I do think in the end though that business will trump politics whatever principles of the eu that might mean get overrun.

"business will trump politics " this statement would only be true if the EU was a hierarchical organisation with someone at the top taking the decisions.

Reality is that there will be 27 EU states doing the decision making and any deal can be blocked by some self-interest group like the unemployed Walloons who could care less about such things as German car exports and EU budgets.

	Quote:	marton
	"business will trump politics " this statement would only be true if the EU was a hierarchical organisation with someone at the top taking the decisions. Reality is that there will be 27 EU states doing the decision making and any deal can be blocked by some self-interest group like the unemployed Walloons who could care less about such things as German car exports and EU budgets.

You are wrong. Article 50. exit negotiations will be decided by qualified majority voting, there can be no single veto.

[marton]

I wonder how much this influenced the Walloons?

Quote "State aid: Commission orders Belgium to recover €211 million from several steel companies within the Duferco group

Brussels, 20 January 2016

The Commission has concluded that €211 million funding granted by the Walloon authorities in Belgium to several steel companies within the Duferco group between 2006 and 2011 distorted competition in breach of EU state aid rules."

Source

Caterpillar planning to close their site in the area with the loss of 2,000 jobs did not help

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	You are wrong. Article 50. exit negotiations will be decided by qualified majority voting, there can be no single veto.

True about exit negotiations but striking a new trade agreement would require a treaty change which in turn requires unanimity by the 27 states.