The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK is the second largest net contributor behind Germany. There are only 10 members that contribute to the EU more than what they take out. The EU is going to have to plug this hole somehow.

Sure. I have no doubt the remaining members aren't happy about it at all, one more reason for them to not make unnecessary concessions. If however by some mirace UK gets some kind of deal that gives free EEA access the hole will be filled by the UK itself, upon which Leavers are virtually guaranteed to complain about EU being stubborn and unreasonable.

[Reb77Br]

A very vocally pro-Brexit audience on the most recent Question Time from Hartlepool. The audience from Boston was mild by comparison. Towards the end (around 48:30) a Polish woman in the audience said she felt unwelcome as a result of the Brexit vote, and was shouted at and booed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5r8yQ8sz14

Newsnight recently did a report about a Syrian refugee family living in Newcastle who said they'd had a worse time in the UK than they had had in Syria, as their 14-year-old son had been falsely accused of sexual assault (tried and acquitted). Their theory was that the teenage girls who made the accusations had been motivated by a dislike of foreigners, but the BBC pointed out that this had not been confirmed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofqU-Tq0J5c

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	A very vocally pro-Brexit audience on the most recent Question Time from Hartlepool. The audience from Boston was mild by comparison. Towards the end (around 48:30) a Polish woman in the audience said she felt unwelcome as a result of the Brexit vote, and was shouted at and booed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5r8yQ8sz14 Newsnight recently did a report about a Syrian refugee family living in Newcastle who said they'd had a worse time in the UK than they had had in Syria, as their 14-year-old son had been falsely accused of sexual assault (tried and acquitted). Their theory was that the teenage girls who made the accusations had been motivated by a dislike of foreigners, but the BBC pointed out that this had not been confirmed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofqU-Tq0J5c

When you accuse over half the country of being bigots that's the response you're going to get.

The other story is neither here nor there.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Sure. I have no doubt the remaining members aren't happy about it at all, one more reason for them to not make unnecessary concessions. If however by some mirace UK gets some kind of deal that gives free EEA access the hole will be filled by the UK itself, upon which Leavers are virtually guaranteed to complain about EU being stubborn and unreasonable.

I think in the end common sense will prevail myself. Amidst all the bravado I think everyone wants the best deal for all so after all the hoo haa in the end some kind of deal involving the trade level everyone wants and a movement of people deal everyone will accept will arrive.

Might end in disaster though, with economic doom but mr junckner saying 'there! I told you not to leave!' In a victorious voice!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	You are wrong. Article 50. exit negotiations will be decided by qualified majority voting, there can be no single veto.

Well only after the parliament agrees to it and the exit agreement does not include treaty changes nor international agreements - trade agreements for instance.

[Odile]

Have you bothered to read what Article 50 actually says !?!

There are five elements to Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon:

Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

[marton]

IT companies always have the fastest reactions
"Microsoft raises UK software prices between 13% and 20% after Brexit weighs on pound .
US technology group follows Dell and Apple (ca. 10%) with post-Brexit vote increases."

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Odile
	Have you bothered to read what Article 50 actually says !?

Yep I sure did and there is nothing in there obliging the EU to include a traded deal nor a change to the treaty in any way.

	Quote:
	In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

It talks of an exit agreement and a need to consider the future relationship.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Yep I sure did and there is nothing in there obliging the EU to include a traded deal nor a change to the treaty in any way. It talks of an exit agreement and a need to consider the future relationship.

I assume whoever drafted article 50 was thinking about the total exit of an EU state and disentangling all their activities; not that there would be a desire to negotiate a new trade deal.

[lewton]

	Quote:	marton
	I assume whoever drafted article 50 was thinking about the total exit of an EU state and disentangling all their activities; not that there would be a desire to negotiate a new trade deal.

This is the beauty of it.
Nobody was trying to do it but the outcome will be much better than if somebody had been trying to achieve it.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	I assume whoever drafted article 50 was thinking about the total exit of an EU state and disentangling all their activities; not that there would be a desire to negotiate a new trade deal.

Shape and scope of a follow-on contract are by definition unknown, thus can't be considered.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	A very vocally pro-Brexit audience on the most recent Question Time from Hartlepool. The audience from Boston was mild by comparison. Towards the end (around 48:30) a Polish woman in the audience said she felt unwelcome as a result of the Brexit vote, and was shouted at and booed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5r8yQ8sz14

I watched that particular programme twice, mainly because of Varoufakis. The second viewing was with my OH and we didn't make it to the end because he was getting too angry at the audience views. The sheer ignorance and aggression of some of them was spectacular.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Shape and scope of a follow-on contract are by definition unknown, thus can't be considered.

True but the process to negotiate any follow-on contract could have been outlined, perhaps by reference to relevant EU Articles.
Or simply by saying they will be treated like any other EU country.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	True but the process to negotiate any follow-on contract could have been outlined, perhaps by reference to relevant EU Articles. Or simply by saying they will be treated like any other EU country.

Something similar to the Bilaterals, which say that the party that wants change can request so? We all know the results of that request.
What's the use of taking the effort to, say, agree on how to initiate the procedure to remain in the EEA when the leaving country may not even wish to? Especially when this is probably outlined in the respective treaty already?

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I watched that particular programme twice, mainly because of Varoufakis. The second viewing was with my OH and we didn't make it to the end because he was getting too angry at the audience views. The sheer ignorance and aggression of some of them was spectacular.

I thought Varoufakis talked a lot of sense. His comment about whether politicians who switched from enthusiastic Remain to enthusiastic Leave could be trusted seemed appropriate. There certainly seemed to be a lot of aggression from the audience and I thought the guy near the front who said he had done his "research" and who criticised his children's teachers definitely seemed to be flying the flag for dictatorship of the ignorant.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	I assume whoever drafted article 50...

I believe it was Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, wonder which way he voted

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	I thought Varoufakis talked a lot of sense.

You've picked up on the same audience member that my OH was getting his hair off at.

Varoufakis is proving to be a reasonable bellwether in all this. He has his own beliefs and is very clear about his personal agenda, but also exceptionally experienced and intelligent enough to not narrow his views down to purely his own belief system. I've been back over various interviews he gave over the last two years, and I wish he was a horse racing pundit. He's very good at predicting how individuals respond, not just the economics of a situation.

Two years ago, I hated him, then I began to really listen to what he was saying. Then I talked it over with my OH's niece who was a student of his in Athens. Now, I'm not hanging on his every word (because he is further to the left than I naturally am), but he talks a great degree of common sense.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Varoufakis is proving to be a reasonable bellwether in all this. He has his own beliefs and is very clear about his personal agenda, but also exceptionally experienced and intelligent enough to not narrow his views down to purely his own belief system. I've been back over various interviews he gave over the last two years, and I wish he was a horse racing pundit. He's very good at predicting how individuals respond, not just the economics of a situation.

Did you miss what happened in Greece in 2015? About 15 billion in lost GDP, totally incompetent negotiator, the guy is an utter twonk.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	I believe it was Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, wonder which way he voted

I assume he voted to remain but has now said if the Lords get to vote on Article 50 invokation then he will vote yes, source.

[marton]

GM warns of more cuts in Europe as Brexit bites.
The fall in sterling and softening vehicle demand will cost the company $300m in the final three months of the year.
Vauxhall’s UK plant at Ellesmere Port, which makes the Astra hatchback, is heavily reliant on EU sales, as around 80 per cent of the 120,000 cars produced at the site are exported to other member states.
GM already cut production at two mainland European plants that make models popular in Britain.

Source