The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The Swiss currency is too high, Swiss companies will have to cut prices to stay competitive. hardly a big surprise to the reel world. The watch industry has been amazingly lucky so far.

Meanwhile in the real world
Swiss exports exceed level before franc’s shock rise
In the third quarter of 2016, Swiss exports reached CHF 52.5 billion, 8.1% higher than they were for the same period in 2015
The same quarter of 2014 exports reached CHF 51.7 billion, 1.5% lower than the third quarter of 2016.

Source

And also in the real world the watch industry is not lucky "The industry showing the most negative shift was watchmaking (-8%)."

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Nissan commits to the UK. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37787890

Downing Street and Nissan have dismissed any suggestion of Government financial support to secure new investment in Sunderland.

Source

Confusing isn't it?

Meanwhile from Nissan's own press release "Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and CEO of Nissan; “The support and assurances of the U.K. government enabled us to decide that the next-generation Qashqai and X-Trail will be produced at Sunderland. I welcome British Prime Minister Theresa May’s commitment to the automotive industry in Britain

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	Downing Street and Nissan have dismissed any suggestion of Government financial support to secure new investment in Sunderland. Source Confusing isn't it? Meanwhile from Nissan's own press release "Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and CEO of Nissan; “The support and assurances of the U.K. government enabled us to decide that the next-generation Qashqai and X-Trail will be produced at Sunderland. I welcome British Prime Minister Theresa May’s commitment to the automotive industry in Britain

I think I get it. Nissan are staying the U.K., regardless of the upcoming change in relationship with the EU.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think I get it. Nissan are staying the U.K., regardless of the upcoming change in relationship with the EU.

It depends a lot on what the 'support' bit means. Take a look on the WTO site, members get very upset if support equals subsidies. And the UK will need to get it's deal approved if it wants to be in the club.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	So seems the UK economy performs just fine as a full part of the EU. Although I see the uncertainty over Brexit dropped the growth from 0.7% in the previous quarter. Now once the UK actually leaves the EU lets see what happens. Edit...quickly scanning the detail it all looks rather less rosy. Music, film and TV make up most of the increase while: "Manufacturing dropped by 1% in the third quarter, while production fell 0.4% and agriculture slipped by 0.7%"

Indeed, service was the only growing sector. However, since Brexit has been postponed we may have to wait until next year to actually see its effect.

The main issue I see is:
UK government appears to have commited itself to reimburse any negative effects to one big international company. That clearly means every(!) international company will demand the same, and Mrs May will oblige. No exceptions, they'll all deposit their demands immediately.

The direct conclusion is that Internationals won't stay unless guaranteed to be reimbursed for any adverse impacts. This is a direct and completely obvious contradition to the notion that Brexit is a good thing for the economy, at least on the short to intermediate term. And somebody other than the multi-nationals will have to pay - yes that's you John Silver and Jane Smith, the people most likely to have voted for Brexit.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The Swiss currency is too high, Swiss companies will have to cut prices to stay competitive. hardly a big surprise to the reel world. The watch industry has been amazingly lucky so far.

For Swatch 2013 was the best year so far in terms of half-year profits.

Swatch 1st half-year numbers 2013 vs 2016:
revenue -10%
EBIT -60% (Betriebsgewinn)
earnings -65%

Not sure how you define luck, FMF. But most people have a different definition.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Downing Street and Nissan have dismissed any suggestion of Government financial support to secure new investment in Sunderland. Source Confusing isn't it?

Read the fine print, that need not be a contradiction.

Support means direct action, by the government in this case, including some kind of payment under whatever title they may happen to choose.

The beeb article on Nissan however speaks of compensation, e.g. Nissan may be allowed to deduct additional tarrifs as some form of cost, which implies no action by government.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Read the fine print, that need not be a contradiction. Support means direct action, by the government in this case, including some kind of payment under whatever title they may happen to choose. The beeb article on Nissan however speaks of compensation, e.g. Nissan may be allowed to deduct additional tarrifs as some form of cost, which implies no action by government.

"Nissan may be allowed to deduct additional tariffs as some form of cost" The would only be "allowed" if the Govt. allowed that; so it would be a Govt. action.

Would probably be against WTO rules anyway! If you look at the WTO example of action against subsidies for motor manufacturers I posted earlier one of the complaints was "forgone government revenue"!

Lately the UK Govt. seems to be supporting publicising provocative statements like this example plus last week May told the Council of Europe that the UK was already negotiating trade agreements with other countries.

[marton]

If people do not like my posted opinions then I have no problem when people groan me.
I have never understood why I sometimes get groans when I post facts; some sort of extreme Ostrich syndrome

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	And also in the real world the watch industry is not lucky "The industry showing the most negative shift was watchmaking (-8%)."

The CHF has strengthened by more than 8%, sales in Euros are up, as I said the watchmaking industry has been very lucky, they make an expensive product that nobody needs anymore, yet people still buy.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	"Nissan may be allowed to deduct additional tariffs as some form of cost" The would only be "allowed" if the Govt. allowed that; so it would be a Govt. action. Would probably be against WTO rules anyway! If you look at the WTO example of action against subsidies for motor manufacturers I posted earlier one of the complaints was "forgone government revenue"! Lately the UK Govt. seems to be supporting publicising provocative statements like this example plus last week May told the Council of Europe that the UK was already negotiating trade agreements with other countries.

Creating the law would be a parliamentary/governmental action, but not the deducting/compensating itself. While this may look like cutting hairs, it's about political usage of words so the difference may well be significant (IMO it is, keeping in mind I'm not English native).

	Quote:	marton
	If people do not like my posted opinions then I have no problem when people groan me. I have never understood why I sometimes get groans when I post facts; some sort of extreme Ostrich syndrome

Sorry - if that was me it was an accident...meant to be thanks! Corrected! Blame thick fingers and the tablet.

[marton]

I always blame the second bottle of wine

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Creating the law would be a parliamentary/governmental action, but not the deducting/compensating itself. While this may look like cutting hairs, it's about political usage of words so the difference may well be significant (IMO it is, keeping in mind I'm not English native).

"The business secretary, Greg Clark, has insisted there was “no cheque book” involved in the assurance given to Nissan before the car giant agreed to keep investing in Britain.

Clark reportedly gave a “last-minute written promise” to Nissan to protect the company from the consequences of Brexit"

"David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, confused matters further on Thursday by declaring: “If we are leaving the EU, we are leaving the single market.”"

Source

Maybe they are secretly telling the companies that they will not really invoke Brexit

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	If people do not like my posted opinions then I have no problem when people groan me. I have never understood why I sometimes get groans when I post facts; some sort of extreme Ostrich syndrome

Happens to me a lot too.

I can say pretty controversial or trollish things and nobody bats an eyelid, but I can state an objective and pretty much undsiputed fact and get heaps of groans,

People are strange.

[amogles]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The CHF has strengthened by more than 8%, sales in Euros are up, as I said the watchmaking industry has been very lucky, they make an expensive product that nobody needs anymore, yet people still buy.

But for how much longer?

When today's youngsters reach the age that they can afford to throw cash at lavish status symbols, will they be buying watches?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It depends a lot on what the 'support' bit means. Take a look on the WTO site, members get very upset if support equals subsidies. And the UK will need to get it's deal approved if it wants to be in the club.

support can equal many things, including just helping identify an appropriate site and guiding them through the red tape. Governments do that all the time with big investors.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	support can equal many things, including just helping identify an appropriate site and guiding them through the red tape. Governments do that all the time with big investors.

That's what I said, it depends on what support means.....

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	That's what I said, it depends on what support means.....

For a big business like Nissan support can only mean some sort of financial contribution to the bottom line, everything else is just blah blah.

Whichever way this support is pitched whether as subsidy or tax forgiveness or special conditions it will only interest Nissan if it ensures post Brexit that the company profits are not negatively impacted.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Maybe they are secretly telling the companies that they will not really invoke Brexit

A chechbook means payment in cash. Everybody quoted uses the qualifier "financial", there's not one unconditional statement of "no compensation". Why does the official spokesman deny to comment on whether they were promised lower energy costs?

Guess we'll have to wait and see but I'd be surprised if, in case of tariffs imposed, the car makers don't get some kind of compensation. After all Goshn made his position quite clear:
"If I need to make an investment in the next few months and I can’t wait until the end of Brexit, then I have to make a deal with the UK government. If there are tax barriers being established on cars, you have to have a commitment for carmakers who export to Europe that there is some kind of compensation."