The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	LuvSwissGermanAndItalian
	The Brexit and the election of President Trump are some of the best things that happened in 2016. The UK must follow the Swiss path. The EU is doomed anyway

Like the UK over 40% of Swiss exports go to the EU so if the EU is doomed then so are we

[marton]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	and as the high court have confirmed, that not her decision to make, the house needs to vote, deals need to be done etc etc I'm not for one second saying the nhs will get anything, just playing devils advocate, nigel will use every trick in the book and the people will eat it up (again)

The high court have not confirmed that May cannot set the budgets for UK departments.

	Quote:	LuvSwissGermanAndItalian
	The Brexit and the election of President Trump are some of the best things that happened in 2016. The UK must follow the Swiss path. The EU is doomed anyway

Ah you mean full membership of the single market with free movement of people.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	marton
	The high court have not confirmed that May cannot set the budgets for UK departments.

<sigh> the high court have confirmed she cannot single handedly pull the uk out of europe, it has to go to a vote in the house of commons, in order to make sure 100% she wins that vote she will need to do some deals with her MP's , if they choose to, they can make her life very difficult indeed

[amogles]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	<sigh> the high court have confirmed she cannot single handedly pull the uk out of europe, it has to go to a vote in the house of commons, in order to make sure 100% she wins that vote she will need to do some deals with her MP's , if they choose to, they can make her life very difficult indeed

There aren't too many deals she can make. To be able to promise them anything she would need to get assuracnces from the EU first, and as long as the EU says they won't negotiate ahead of article 50 being invoked, any deals she offers MPs are pretty much meaningless.

She's going to have to find a different way to approach this.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	amogles
	There aren't too many deals she can make. To be able to promise them anything she would need to get assuracnces from the EU first, and as long as the EU says they won't negotiate ahead of article 50 being invoked, any deals she offers MPs are pretty much meaningless. She's going to have to find a different way to approach this.

exactly, and all those MP's from the places that benefited most from EU funding are going to be demanding they still get there 'fair share' come exit time, right now she can't do anything, she certainly can't say dept X will get more or less money in even a months time, let alone 2 years time as the situation changes daily.

	Quote:
	Re my previous post re the 'power of the people' figures now switched over, from 51.89/48.11 to now 47.95/52.05 - of course there is a margin of error there. But this is not based on a 'poll' but a proper BE study ... even is you diss the figures - it certainly serves to illustrate just how VERY close the numbers were (and this even more in the USA elections where Clinton got more votes than Trump anyhow). Those figures have also been very fair in their estimation of expats now over 15 years abroad who would be unable to vote (as in France, Spain, Italy- they are mainly retirees). categories estimated were now dead voters now over 18 less regretters on both sides switching regretters on both sides expats who no longer can vote since then (as over 15 years abroad) and figures as of 6th of November: 16, 729, 768 leave 18,161,215 remain. As said, perhaps not 100% accurate- as no study can be- but certainly indicative of how silly the the concept of the 'will of the people' is in both Brexit and USA elections.

Are you related to Katty Kay?

"If I say something enough times then I will believe it". Or, in other words, denial.

How does this work?

[Cata1yst]

	Quote:	marton
	"It just makes people look like sore losers who are unable to accept and discuss others point of view." So you are against UK general elections every five years; once a political party is voted in it shows the will of the people and there should not another election? You compared with the US, you know they have presidential elections every four years so people can change their minds

Not really the rules are clear before both a general election and referendum. In this case...

Is the below image open to any other interpretation? The house of commons voted on the question wording and accepted a change from the electoral commission. It was passed in the houses of parliament on the 7th September 2015.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...ion-assessment



There is a 53 page document explaining the wording of the question and how this was investigated for bias, it's very conclusive.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...ent-report.pdf

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Cata1yst
	Not really the rules are clear before both a general election and referendum. In this case... Is the below image open to any other interpretation? The house of commons voted on the question wording and accepted a change from the electoral commission. It was passed in the houses of parliament on the 7th September 2015.

Pity is that the Government also decided to make in non binding, leaving so many options open that none of us truly know what the eventual outcome will be. This article from June 14th explains a lot, and will no doubt make the majority of us feel like we've all been stitched up.

	Quote:
	There is an incredible theory that a Brexit won't actually happen even if the public votes for it.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/green-...-brexit-2016-6

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Are you related to Katty Kay? "If I say something enough times then I will believe it". Or, in other words, denial.

Some would also call that Positive Mental Attitude. Depends if you're a 'glass half empty' or a 'glass half full' kind of person. I'm on my second pint (metaphorically speaking)

[marton]

	Quote:	Cata1yst
	Not really the rules are clear before both a general election and referendum. In this case... Is the below image open to any other interpretation? The house of commons voted on the question wording and accepted a change from the electoral commission. It was passed in the houses of parliament on the 7th September 2015. http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...ion-assessment There is a 53 page document explaining the wording of the question and how this was investigated for bias, it's very conclusive. http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...ent-report.pdf

Trot along to the House of Commons library and take a look at their briefing on the House of Commons vote here. This is the briefing the MPs are supposed to read before they vote so they know exactly what they are voting for.

Take a look at Section 5, page 25!

	Quote:
	This Bill requires a referendum to be held on the question of the UK’s continued membership of the European Union (EU) before the end of 2017. It does not contain any requirement for the UK Government to implement the results of the referendum, nor set a time limit by which a vote to leave the EU should be implemented. Instead, this is a type of referendum known as pre-legislative or consultative, which enables the electorate to voice an opinion which then influences the Government in its policy decisions

You were fooled mate!
It is the electoral version of "Caveat Emptor".
In plain English, always read the small print!

[Jim2007]

Source

	Quote:
	The UK trade in goods deficit increased by £1.6bn over the month to £12.7bn. Imports rose £1.3bn to £38.8bn, while exports fell by £200m to £26.1bn. Imports of ships, materials, vehicles and oil were all up in September, the Office for National Statistics said. The disappointing figures suggested the 16% fall in the value of the pound since the EU referendum in June failed to lift exports, despite making British goods cheaper abroad.

I must say I was not expecting that! It seems that despite the price drop the demand simply was not there. Is this an indicate of a down turn in the global economy???

[Blueangel]

Holy f***!!

This guy gets it. The age of party politics and representative democracy is coming to an end. People are finally starting to realise that we don't need politicians.

How does this work?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Source I must say I was not expecting that! It seems that despite the price drop the demand simply was not there. Is this an indicate of a down turn in the global economy???

I think it means that it takes time for Brexit effects to show, macro changes typically take 6-9 months (perhaps a bit less this time as the change is quite substantial). For instance the inflation increase we see now all over Europe is probably caused by the rising oil price since the turn of the year.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Pity is that the Government also decided to make in non binding, leaving so many options open that none of us truly know what the eventual outcome will be. This article from June 14th explains a lot, and will no doubt make the majority of us feel like we've all been stitched up. http://uk.businessinsider.com/green-...-brexit-2016-6

You just gotta love this point:
"Pro-EU MPs could even argue, ironically, that ignoring the public's will would be parliamentary sovereignty in practice — something that Leave campaigners argue has been conceded to Brussels."

Oh the irony

[jacek]

Does it mean that well thought out and masterminded plan called "no plan is the best plan" applies here too?

'There is no plan' for Brexit, leaked memo says
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37983948

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This guy gets it. The age of party politics and representative democracy is coming to an end. People are finally starting to realise that we don't need politicians.

That man was one of the saner members of one of the most rabble rousing Question Time audiences I've ever seen.

We do need politicians.
Whose going to turn the street lights on at night?
Whose going to allocate funds for education, health care, the military, etc...
Whose going to deal with World leaders when they begin sabre rattling?

The list is endless, and I doubt you have the time, wit, knowledge or guile to do all of those tasks and make it home for dinner.

As for his last point... Empress disMay is a case in point. Her constituents in Maidenhead heavily voted to Remain in the EU, and also heavily voted against the Heathrow expansion. May has gone against them on both counts.

If that's the example that the PM sets, then anything is possible.

	Quote:	jacek
	Does it mean that well thought out and masterminded plan called "no plan is the best plan" applies here too? 'There is no plan' for Brexit, leaked memo says http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37983948

I think they just need to figure out how they are going to cover the costs. Recent history shows that any major (or minor, for that matter) national administrative venture runs wildly over budget, zooms past its deadline and ends up getting shelved or scrapped.

Maybe the 30,000 new staff is a conservative estimate (easier to round down again rather than round up after the fact) but if that is the figure they are working on, the budget must be astronomical.

I can see it being farmed out to private companies who will do their best to draw it out and squeeze out more funds.

Never mind - 350 million a week for the NHS, right..?

[marton]

	Quote:	jacek
	Does it mean that well thought out and masterminded plan called "no plan is the best plan" applies here too? 'There is no plan' for Brexit, leaked memo says http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37983948

This is in most UK newspapers; Guardian, ft, Telegraph for alternate reports..

It has been obvious for some time that there is no single agreed Brexit plan.

	Quote:
	It identified a tendency by Theresa May to “draw in decisions and settle matters herself” as a strategy that cannot be sustained, and highlighted a split between the three Brexit ministers – Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and David Davis – and the chancellor, Philip Hammond, and his ally Greg Clark, the business secretary.

	Quote:
	The note found that departments are working on more than 500 projects related to leaving the EU and may need to hire an extra 30,000 civil servants to deal with the additional burden of work.

	Quote:
	The memo suggests it will take another six months before the government decides what it wants to achieve from Brexit or agrees on its priorities.

	Quote:
	The memo said big businesses could soon “point a gun at the government’s head” to secure what they need to maintain jobs and investment. The government’s recent concessions to Nissan over its future investment plans in Sunderland suggest that process is already under way.