The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:
	Actually not a difference of opinion. The Guardian simply contains more (translated) quotes which make it clear what she is talking about. Particularly the bit I quoted before which makes it very clear that she is firm on the basic principal of FMOP.

Merkel and Germany are rather selective when it comes to 'firmness of principle' on free movement.

When Enlargement was being discussed, there were plenty of German politicians (not sure if Merkel was around then) suggesting that free movement couldn't be sustained when membership rose to 28 countries. Some argued for having a 2-tier EU with free movement available for the established members, with it being granted on a gradual review basis to the new members i.e. if and when the old eastern European nations eventually caught up, in terms of GDP. The (sensible) point being that free movement works best with economies that are roughly similar. This was then softened to a request for a 10-year moratorium, and eventually they agreed on a 7 or 8 year suspension of free movement (while UK and Ireland allowed it immediately).

So all this talk of solid principles is humbug. They appear to be principles only when it suits them.

[Castro]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	For the simple reason that Germany is the only real exporter within the EU. Germany have complete control over the EU. They will want the UK to remain in the single market.

All member states are supposedly equal with regards to voting rights, it just takes one to throw a complete spanner in the works, just look at the weeks long impasse over the EU-Canada trade agreement. Germany is obviously important, but when it comes to the vote so are the remaining 28 other member states, many of whom are deeply resentful of Brexit and determined to make sure we know it.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Yourself and Boris need to sit down and read the Treaty of Rome and understand what it actually says, not what you think it says.

Ahhh yes, the Treaty of Rome. Article 3 Clause (g) regarding disequilibria in balance of payments. How's that working out?

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Yourself and Boris need to sit down and read the Treaty of Rome and understand what it actually says, not what you think it says. My prediction: Boris and the boys will waste the two years faffing about with this nonsense and the UK will end up exiting the EU as a third country with a bill of about €60b.

With respect, "predictions" seem to be simply speculation based on wishful thinking and highly selective reporting. The saddest part of the Brexit debate for me is what seems to be a desire by most (or certainly the most vocal) Remain voters to see the UK economy suffer for many years so that they at least have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so".

Most of us work in business. We know the pack-drill. When you're faced with uncertainty and some risk, you have a brief burst of grumbling, then you pull together and get on with the job, and to make sure you succeed. With Brexit, it looks like we are going to have endless attempts to obstruct the referendum verdict from becoming a positive reality. Leaks, legal challenges, talk of by-election strategies, parliamentary procedures to create delay, briefing against the government, campaigns and marches.... all designed to help ensure that Brexit is as difficult as possible and as unsuccessful as possible. Nothing illegal or (arguably) even undemocratic about all this, but it seems madness to me that people are actively relishing the prospect of failure. -- and indeed, helping to ensure that we get failure.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Ahhh yes, the Treaty of Rome. Article 3 Clause (g) regarding disequilibria in balance of payments. How's that working out?

With a couple of exceptions looks pretty good:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist..._GDP)_YB16.png
Of course the UK is one of the two and is screwed if they loose the financial passport.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Castro
	All member states are supposedly equal with regards to voting rights, it just takes one to throw a complete spanner in the works, just look at the weeks long impasse over the EU-Canada trade agreement. Germany is obviously important, but when it comes to the vote so are the remaining 28 other member states, many of whom are deeply resentful of Brexit and determined to make sure we know it.

Methinks Germany is the most resentful over Brexit. Many other countries are indifferent or even seeing Brexit as an oppoprtunity to get other stuff they are unhappy with renegotiated.

It's exactly this type of ambitions that Germany is trying to slam the door on (and not being particularly diplomatic about it).

It reminds me of the captain of the sinking Titanic being resolute and sending out a clear warning to all other icebergs to get out of the way.

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	With respect, "predictions" seem to be simply speculation based on wishful thinking and highly selective reporting. The saddest part of the Brexit debate for me is what seems to be a desire by most (or certainly the most vocal) Remain voters to see the UK economy suffer for many years so that they at least have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so".

You mistake a desire to see it suffer with a belief that it will suffer. Two very different things.


Of course if there was a way to make sure only Brexit voters suffered....

	Quote:	amogles
	Methinks Germany is the most resentful over Brexit. Many other countries are indifferent or even seeing Brexit as an oppoprtunity to get other stuff they are unhappy with renegotiated. It's exactly this type of ambitions that Germany is trying to slam the door on (and not being particularly diplomatic about it). It reminds me of the captain of the sinking Titanic being resolute and sending out a clear warning to all other icebergs to get out of the way.

I think the germans are highly disappointed over Brexit which is something else.


I also think the biggest stumbling block over exit negotiations will be the Eastern Europeans who are going to be rigid on FMOP.

	Quote:
	With a couple of exceptions looks pretty good: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist..._GDP)_YB16.png Of course the UK is one of the two and is screwed if they loose the financial passport.

I was looking more at Germany. Currently running a budget surplus of 8.5%, or in other terms, in disequilibrium. I wonder if they've read and understood what the Treaty of Rome actually says?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...t-surplus.html

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I was looking more at Germany. Currently running a budget surplus of 8.5%, or in other terms, in disequilibrium. I wonder if they've read and understood what the Treaty of Rome actually says? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...t-surplus.html

If the EU takes any punitive measures against Germany, I expect this will unleash a backlash within Germany that could play into the hands of Germany's Eurosceptics.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	I also think the biggest stumbling block over exit negotiations will be the Eastern Europeans who are going to be rigid on FMOP.

I'm not so sure.

The populist thing would be to stand up for FMOP as so many people in those countries benefit from being able to work in the UK.

But on the macro level, the drain on skilled workers is slowing down the recovery of these countries. Being able to slow down that drain while pretending its somebody else's fault willl play nicely into the narrative of the governments of those countries.

Ironically, it's actually the UK that stands to lose most if said people go home, and should be seeking a compromise or special deal.

[Britething]

	Quote:	amogles
	If the EU takes any punitive measures against Germany, I expect this will unleash a backlash within Germany that could play into the hands of Germany's Eurosceptics.

Yes, let's not go there. Bannon has already offered his services to Le Pen, so the next one to go will be France. Please not Germany as well ...

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	My prediction: in the end the UK will be offered access to the common market without FMOP.

My prediction is that we won't get that. Nobody else has and they'll be loathe to make and exception for the UK.

But, you'll see a lot of Chinese, Japanese and American foreign workers instead. India's already kicking up a stink over this attitude.

We'll just become the European colony of China (Oh the irony!) as they've already done with parts of East Africa. You can expect something along the lines of this if we're not careful...

	Quote:
	Construction has started on a new Chinese financed R84 billion city in Modderfontein, Gauteng, The Star reported on Thursday. Work on the first set of 300 residential units and some of the roads were reportedly already underway. Chinese firm Shanghai Zendai acquired 1,600 hectares of land in Modderfontein in 2013 to build the city.

http://businesstech.co.za/news/gener...ity-is-coming/

http://www.chinamall.co.za/malls-off...hina-mall-jhb/

Imagine an entire new city of Chinese shops and businesses halfway between Luton and Stansted It will make Milton Keynes look like.....err...Milton Keynes but without the roundabouts.

	Quote:	amogles
	I'm not so sure. The populist thing would be to stand up for FMOP as so many people in those countries benefit from being able to work in the UK. But on the macro level, the drain on skilled workers is slowing down the recovery of these countries. Being able to slow down that drain while pretending its somebody else's fault willl play nicely into the narrative of the governments of those countries. Ironically, it's actually the UK that stands to lose most if said people go home, and should be seeking a compromise or special deal.

Dismissing populism in the EU runs along with the deep rooted belief that austerity is/was the only way to go.. no matter how many times there were warnings against it. The EU cracks are widening now and the wake up call is here.

Funny that May is blind to the failings of austerity too. 'Tis no wonder Osbourne is mud slinging from the side lines, fired and then she continues to implement his austerity plans for the latter half of 2016. I really hoped May wouldn't be another Cameron - setting herself up to fail.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Britething
	Yes, let's not go there. Bannon has already offered his services to Le Pen, so the next one to go will be France. Please not Germany as well ...

And for anyone who hasn't got their pencil out and begun to join the dots yet, that's the globalisation of far right politics.

Just think of all the childhood films you saw about the baddie wanting global domination, except this is real, and you can write the names of all the major players on the back of an envelope.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	also looks like the supreme court decision could be irrelevant: https://www.ft.com/content/a6a91558-...3-bb8207902122 looks like things are progressing despite all the negative noise

Your link does not work; would you care to give us a clue what you are talking about?

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	I'm not so sure. The populist thing would be to stand up for FMOP as so many people in those countries benefit from being able to work in the UK. But on the macro level, the drain on skilled workers is slowing down the recovery of these countries. Being able to slow down that drain while pretending its somebody else's fault willl play nicely into the narrative of the governments of those countries. Ironically, it's actually the UK that stands to lose most if said people go home, and should be seeking a compromise or special deal.

It only needs one country to retain FMOP.

Indeed it is the UK that has most to lose, when responsible for the Home Office May delayed a Govt. report that confirmed this!

	Quote:	amogles
	If the EU takes any punitive measures against Germany, I expect this will unleash a backlash within Germany that could play into the hands of Germany's Eurosceptics.

Exactly, they won't. Germany can do what they like and it proves that no EU treaty is binding.

	Quote:	marton
	Your link does not work; would you care to give us a clue what you are talking about?

Sorry, it's behind a pay wall but worked for me from the facebook feed where i got the link.

This is the headline, but the article covers many topics of Brexit. It says the Government is planning a simple bill that they will force through parliament giving Theresa May the right to invoke Article 50. 3 line whip i guess, very simple with no chance of amendment. It raises doubt if it's possible, but it's still in the plans.

Labour have officially backed article 50, so it's a non issue in parliament. SNP, Liberals and some Labour will vote against but not enough.

It says MPs are sick of the BS and just want to get on with it.

The headline is:
Theresa May prepares draft bill to authorise Brexit

Government plans short Act of Parliament if it loses Supreme Court appeal

If you subscribe to the FT, it is easy to see on the site.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Sorry, it's behind a pay wall but worked for me from the facebook feed where i got the link. This is the headline, but the article covers many topics of Brexit. It says the Government is planning a simple bill that they will force through parliament giving Theresa May the right to invoke Article 50. 3 line whip i guess, very simple with no chance of amendment. It raises doubt if it's possible, but it's still in the plans. Labour have officially backed article 50, so it's a non issue in parliament. SNP, Liberals and some Labour will vote against but not enough. It says MPs are sick of the BS and just want to get on with it. The headline is: Theresa May prepares draft bill to authorise Brexit Government plans short Act of Parliament if it loses Supreme Court appeal If you subscribe to the FT, it is easy to see on the site.

Thanks but it does not make the Supreme Court decision irrelevant.

The whole point of the case was to assert the sovereignty of Parliament and this appears to be successful to stop May acting like a dictator.

A number of paranoid people claimed it was an attempt to block Brexit but it was always clear that MPs would not risk their cushy jobs by voting against invocation of Art. 50.

So far the only MP brave enough to act against their own constituents wishes is May whose Maidenhead voters voted for Remain and against Heathrow extension.