The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Medea Fleecestealer]

More here:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

Short and to the point. Pity more bills can't be written that way.

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Labour have officially backed article 50, so it's a non issue in parliament. SNP, Liberals and some Labour will vote against but not enough.

Almost certainly correct, possibly a small handful of tories as well. What I therefore don't get is the hysteria about the court ruling.

[marton]

Seems that 59% of Germans want Merkel as chancellor again, Link.

Angela Merkel to run for 4th term as Chancellor, politician says, link

	Quote:
	Another stint would be significant because a large part of the German electorate is looking for stability in uncertain times after the Brexit vote in Britain, the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the rise of populist movements in several European countries.

[marton]

	Quote:
	Almost certainly correct, possibly a small handful of tories as well. What I therefore don't get is the hysteria about the court ruling.

Because the hysteria was driven by newspapers who labelled high court judges who supported the sovereignty of Parliament as enemies of the people.

Why no formal action was taken against such newspapers is a fine demonstration of how deep the UK has sunk.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Seems that 59% of Germans want Merkel as chancellor again, Link.

ahem, the article actually says 59 percent want her to run for chancellor. That's not the same as wanting her to win.

It may actually include people who think a CDU under her leadership is going to be easier to defeat than one that's under new leadership.

The same study says 35 percent say she shouldn't be on the ballot.

https://www.contra-magazin.com/2016/...rkel-muss-weg/

This is anything but a sign of confidence for Angela.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	ahem, the article actually says 59 percent want her to run for chancellor. That's not the same as wanting her to win. It may actually include people who think a CDU under her leadership is going to be easier to defeat than one that's under new leadership. The same study says 35 percent say she shouldn't be on the ballot. https://www.contra-magazin.com/2016/...rkel-muss-weg/ This is anything but a sign of confidence for Angela.

So a significant number of Germans want Merkel to stand for the pleasure of watching her defeated; a very, very cunning plan!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	Why no formal action was taken against such newspapers is a fine demonstration of how deep the UK has sunk.

And why did Empress disMay defend the freedom of the press over and above the independence of the High Court and Supreme Court? She had clear opportunity to explain that they are of equal importance, and to explain the situation, but nay.

In more recent news, we have BoJo being an arse - Quelle Surprise!

	Quote:
	Boris Johnson under fire over Brexit prosecco threat A Brexit discussion with an Italian minister degenerates into a squabble over who can sell more fish and chips or prosecco.

http://news.sky.com/story/boris-john...hreat-10659674

...Jaguar Land Rover (Tata) toying with pulling the spark plug on it's UK operation...

	Quote:
	Jaguar Land Rover admits hard Brexit could threaten its UK future Jaguar Land Rover's boss tells Sky News any new tax and tariff barriers with Europe would pose a huge challenge for the car maker.

http://news.sky.com/story/jaguar-lan...uture-10659823

...and Lady Hale might be the one to gets the Empress's knickers in a twist...

	Quote:
	Supreme court judge hints at legal hitch that could seriously delay Brexit Lady Hale raises possibility of PM having to replace 1972 act before triggering article 50, incurring wrath of anti-EU Tories

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ve-campaigners

It's all fun and games... Time to look at photos of cute cats and dogs before bedtime. According to several American news channels, it decreases post election / Brexit stress.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:
	Almost certainly correct, possibly a small handful of tories as well. What I therefore don't get is the hysteria about the court ruling.

The Tories have a majority of 10 (possibly 12 after the by-elections).

Labour have said they'll vote against A50 if the government don't reveal their negotiating strategy. This is an impossible demand. The Northern Irish Unionists who are normally counted as part of the Tories in votes have said they'll vote against. Most Tories were Remainers and some will vote against. The LibDems in the Lords have pledged to throw out the A50 bill. The SNP and LibDems in the Commons have said they'll use every procedural option to talk out the bill or to try to delay it indefinitely. So the court ruling has presented multiple opportunities to frustrate the referendum decision.

The govt's only hope is to draft a bill so simple that no amendments can realistically be introduced (and debated). If that fails, Mrs May's only realistic option is to go to the country to seek a new mandate.

[marton]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	The Tories have a majority of 10 (possibly 12 after the by-elections). Labour have said they'll vote against A50 if the government don't reveal their negotiating strategy. This is an impossible demand. The Northern Irish Unionists who are normally counted as part of the Tories in votes have said they'll vote against. Most Tories were Remainers and some will vote against. The LibDems in the Lords have pledged to throw out the A50 bill. The SNP and LibDems in the Commons have said they'll use every procedural option to talk out the bill or to try to delay it indefinitely. So the court ruling has presented multiple opportunities to frustrate the referendum decision. The govt's only hope is to draft a bill so simple that no amendments can realistically be introduced (and debated). If that fails, Mrs May's only realistic option is to go to the country to seek a new mandate.

" Mrs May's only realistic option is to go to the country to seek a new mandate" Doubt that as it is a high personal risk; her constituency Maidenhead voted Remain and against Heathrow extension!

Anyway I doubt many MPs will vote against A50; they have too cushy jobs!

[curley]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Honestly, I feel a system like that in the UK wouldn't be like herding cats, it would be like juggling with cats.

The first step to direct democracy is a populace that does not want to be herded.

	Quote:	marton
	So you believe these two hundred and fifty three politicians are just administrators because we have 10 national referendums per year?

Definitely not, I'd even claim most of them are truly interested in politics and in doing a good job - for the country. I got the impression there is a lot less ego involved here compared to other countries maybe because these people are not glamerous to us. (The Bundesräte ride on the train and are usually not even bothered by anyone). We vote them in (each and every one of them except the Bundesrat), we criticize their work (and normally ONLY their work and not their personal affairs!) and if we think they fail too often we simply vote them out again. I'd suspect, the ones who act like administrators only go first

	Quote:	marton
	Seems that 59% of Germans want Merkel as chancellor again, Link. Angela Merkel to run for 4th term as Chancellor, politician says, link

Not unusual that the German chancellors stick to their chairs like for ever, specially the CDU/CSU ones, Konrad Hermann Joseph Adenauer 1949 bis 1963, 1982 bis 1998.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	And why did Empress disMay defend the freedom of the press over and above the independence of the High Court and Supreme Court? She had clear opportunity to explain that they are of equal importance, and to explain the situation, but nay. In more recent news, we have BoJo being an arse - Quelle Surprise! http://news.sky.com/story/boris-john...hreat-10659674 ...Jaguar Land Rover (Tata) toying with pulling the spark plug on it's UK operation... http://news.sky.com/story/jaguar-lan...uture-10659823 ...and Lady Hale might be the one to gets the Empress's knickers in a twist... https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ve-campaigners It's all fun and games... Time to look at photos of cute cats and dogs before bedtime. According to several American news channels, it decreases post election / Brexit stress.

Another secret Nissan type deal for jaguar landrover! What is this costing us

[greenmount]

	Quote:	amogles
	I'm not so sure. The populist thing would be to stand up for FMOP as so many people in those countries benefit from being able to work in the UK. But on the macro level, the drain on skilled workers is slowing down the recovery of these countries. Being able to slow down that drain while pretending its somebody else's fault willl play nicely into the narrative of the governments of those countries. Ironically, it's actually the UK that stands to lose most if said people go home, and should be seeking a compromise or special deal.

I actually don't even doubt that they think exactly like that in their tiny, little heads. But as long as the salaries remain very low there all those skilled (and unskilled) workers will migrate to greener pastures. Back in the days if you were working in a factory you could've made a (sort of) decent living, now all those jobs are gone and the new foreign "investors" (who, more often than not have bought the old industrial infrastructure for 2 cents) are paying them literally peanuts, all with the blessing of said governments who are serving everyone's needs but their own people.
So I'd really like to see how will they stop the exodus, UK is NOT the only place (neither a favourite one for everyone). Hypocrites.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I actually don't even doubt that they think exactly like that in their tiny, little heads. But as long as the salaries remain very low there all those skilled (and unskilled) workers will migrate to greener pastures. Back in the days if you were working in a factory you could've made a (sort of) decent living, now all those jobs are gone and the new foreign "investors" (who, more often than not have bought the old industrial infrastructure for 2 cents) are paying them literally peanuts, all with the blessing of said governments who are serving everyone's needs but their own people. So I'd really like to see how will they stop the exodus, UK is NOT the only place (neither a favourite one for everyone). Hypocrites.

Just need all economies round the world to be at the same level. That would fix everything.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Just need all economies round the world to be at the same level. That would fix everything.

Not sure how this line reflects the debate on the subject of FMOP within EU, it's obviously a sour topic with or without UK. For everyone. My point was that UK could have been an option, but not the only one. Honestly, not everything revolves around UK...
Eastern European governments have a real tough time in keeping their skilled people at home, but on the same time they're not doing much to prevent this from happening.
But well, I don't really have enough time for that.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Not sure how this line reflects the debate on the subject of FMOP within EU, it's obviously a sour topic with or without UK. For everyone. My point was that UK could have been an option, but not the only one. Honestly, not everything revolves around UK... But well, I don't really have enough time for that.

No but everything revolves around the uk in this discussion!

[TobiasM]

Boris Johnson reveals vision of post-Brexit Britain.



#HIGNFY

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Labour have said they'll vote against A50 if the government don't reveal their negotiating strategy. This is an impossible demand

Why impossible? How can the MP's make a reasonable judgement on A50 if they don't know what they are voting for? At least they need to know if they're aiming for Single Market membership / WTO rules or something in between.

Given that the government will have to reveal this within a few minutes of negotiations starting it isn't going to weaken anyone's hands. Basically the negotiation goes:

UK - We want X
EU - OK, the price is Y

Only then can you start talking about modifying X and Y and reach (or not) a compromise. It certainly does not weaken your position to reveal "X" in advance, rather it is essential.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Mikers
	No but everything revolves around the uk in this discussion!

In this universe! lol

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:
	Why impossible? How can the MP's make a reasonable judgement on A50 if they don't know what they are voting for? At least they need to know if they're aiming for Single Market membership / WTO rules or something in between. Given that the government will have to reveal this within a few minutes of negotiations starting it isn't going to weaken anyone's hands. Basically the negotiation goes: UK - We want X EU - OK, the price is Y Only then can you start talking about modifying X and Y and reach (or not) a compromise. It certainly does not weaken your position to reveal "X" in advance, rather it is essential.

You seem to think that MPs are making a genuine request for information to help them make a "reasonable judgement" on A50. MPs, especially opposition MPs, already know exactly what their positions are, and how they will respond to anything the government says, regardless of what is 'revealed'. This is not a bona fide attempt to ensure that Brexit proceeds. It's a delaying tactic, and part of a plan to weaken the UK's negotiating position -- not to strengthen it.

If you think there is no advantage for the EU to have advance details of Britain's approach to the negotiations, then I can only politely say that there isn't much point in discussing this.

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	If you think there is no advantage for the EU to have advance details of Britain's approach to the negotiations, then I can only politely say that there isn't much point in discussing this.

Didn't say anything about the approach to the negotiations, rather the objective. Until you have an objective you don't have anything to negotiate on. Imagine negotiations day 1...:

EU - OK, what do you want out of your exit
UK - We're not telling you

It will be a pretty short conversation.

Of course, judging from the incredibly coordinated approach we see from the PM and the 3 BREXIT ministers it is quite probable they don't themselves have a clue what they want out of it.