The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has set out a tough line on Brexit talks Even after Brexit, the UK would be bound by tax rules that would restrict it from granting incentives to keep investors in the country and would also face EU budget bills for more than a decade. The finance minister also insisted that Britain must stick to international rules on investment incentives, as with Nissan Motor.

This can be seen as implying that the first part is based on EU rules. Which of course would be a bogus claim unless EU treaties explicitly say that they're valid even if a member leaves; of course such would make zero sense.

The EU is also positioning themselves for the negotiations, same as UK.

	Quote:	marton
	EU competition regulators have already asked Britain to explain what sort of commitments were made.

Don't ask me, it's someone else (Mikers?) who says there were no concessions and commitments made to Nissan et al.

	Quote:	marton
	Agreements reached by the G20 industrialised countries to limit tax avoidance — an initiative, led by Germany and the UK, would reduce Britain’s ability to grant tax breaks to companies, even after leaving the EU.

A tax break is not the same as, say, providing energy at huge rebates, even though the effect to the bottom line may well be the same.

	Quote:	marton
	Restrictions of EU immigration would end financial services companies’ free access to EU markets under so-called passporting rules and Euro-clearing must stay in the EU.

Yes, and one of the major reasons I think May's talk of a hard Brexit is just talk. But that's a different matter than talking about her strategy.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	This can be seen as implying that the first part is based on EU rules. Which of course would be a bogus claim unless EU treaties explicitly say that they're valid even if a member leaves; of course such would make zero sense.

Actually I believe he's talking about WTO rules here which also regulate subsidies and allow other countries to take counter-actions.

[marton]

	Quote:	baboon
	Actually I believe he's talking about WTO rules here which also regulate subsidies and allow other countries to take counter-actions.

Indeed WTO, and providing energy at huge rebates is also against the WTO rules - there have been a number of WTO cases about subsidies for renewable energy.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Brexit blamed for £100 billion budget black hole, Weak growth and big fall in sterling after EU vote mean government economic targets likely to be scrapped. Britain faces a £100 billion black hole in its finances because of Brexit, Chancellor Philip Hammond will reportedly tell MPs in next week’s Autumn Statement. Mr Hammond’s predecessor as chancellor, George Osborne, had promised the UK would be in surplus by 2019-20 and made this a core part of his economic policy. But this is now almost certain to be missed. The pessimistic forecasts appear to be a vindication of Treasury warnings, made before the EU referendum, about the likely economic impact of Brexit on the UK economy. Chancellor George Osborne warned in June that Brexit would lead to £30 billion of further spending cuts and tax rises – a claim that was heavily criticised at the time by the Leave campaign and many Conservative MPs. Source Public sector debt will jump, Mr Hammond will be forced to admit, by £100bn this year, raising it from 83 per cent of national income to almost 90 per cent from higher borrowing. By far the largest reason for the Brexit hole in the public finances will be lower growth. With bad income tax revenues so far this financial year, it was “very unlikely” to hit the 2016-17 Budget forecast.

Strange as retail sales growth is at a 14 year high.....
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/po...094200475.html

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Strange as retail sales growth is at a 14 year high..... https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/po...094200475.html

Given the movement in the GBP I find it completely expected that people buy stuff now before the prices go up. Will be interesting what that looks like in say March when the FX driven price increases do start filtering through in areas other than food.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Those darn Hungarians, Hungary announced today they will cut corporate tax next year to 9% and companies will have the benefit of access to the single market. This is 3.5% lower than Ireland.

The strange thing is that while the German government is still hissing with rage and seeking a nasty way of punishing Hungary, German corporations are telling their government where to stick it and both Mercdes and Audi are massively ramping up their production bases in Hungary and hiring like crazy (hey, even I have been approached by a headhunter).

Sort of disproves the notion that countries that won't dance to Merkel's tune are screwed.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	The strange thing is that while the German government is still hissing with rage and seeking a nasty way of punishing Hungary, German corporations are telling their government where to stick it and both Mercdes and Audi are massively ramping up their production bases in Hungary and hiring like crazy (hey, even I have been approached by a headhunter). Sort of disproves the notion that countries that won't dance to Merkel's tune are screwed.

Meanwhile VW/Audi announced today they are laying off up to 30,000 people, 20,000 in Germany

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	marton
	Meanwhile VW/Audi announced today they are laying off up to 30,000 people, 20,000 in Germany

I have just been watching a TV programme on German ARD about Chinese industry.

The Chinese VW car factory at Shanghai sources most of the manufacturing material in China, so it is a good bet that VW Germany will start importing products from VW China now.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Strange as retail sales growth is at a 14 year high..... https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/po...094200475.html

Hammond will make his Autumn statement next week; hopefully everything will become.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Strange as retail sales growth is at a 14 year high..... https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/po...094200475.html

Have a Toblerone

Looks like we've jumped to the front of the queue:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2...tain-next-yea/

[curley]

	Quote:	marton
	Meanwhile VW/Audi announced today they are laying off up to 30,000 people, 20,000 in Germany

And the other 10K, where are they working?

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Have a Toblerone

What's with the gaps, is this how it looks now?! Representing glacial melting?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	The Chinese VW car factory at Shanghai sources most of the manufacturing material in China, so it is a good bet that VW Germany will start importing products from VW China now.

They probably already do.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	curley
	What's with the gaps, is this how it looks now?! Representing glacial melting?

Yes, no. Instead of increasing the price to make up for increased costs Mondelez reduced the amount of chocolate by removing a few triangles. I'm surprised you haven't heard.

[marton]

Lawyers for the Scottish and Welsh governments have been allowed to take part in the supreme court case over Theresa May’s decision to bar MPs from voting on Brexit.

In an unprecedented hearing, all 11 supreme court judges will convene in early December to rule on whether the Commons must be allowed to vote on triggering the article 50 process, against the UK government’s wishes.

The supreme court confirmed on Friday that the chief law officers for the Scottish and Welsh governments would be allowed to intervene, broadening the case into a legal battle over the role and status of three parliaments in the process.

Source

[marton]

Theresa May will put billions of pounds of investment in infrastructure, science and research next week at the heart of an “unashamedly pro-business” agenda, as she seeks to repair strained relations with corporate Britain.

In her first important business speech, Mrs May will herald an Autumn Statement that will postpone a fiscal surplus until the early-2020s, while allowing targeted short-term investment to “get the country and business moving”.

Source (might be behind a paywall)

So the NHS will have to find more savings to fund this

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Have a Toblerone

I went into Poundland last week, normal Tobleronr being sold at a discount price, obvioulely sourced abroad.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I went into Poundland last week, normal Tobleronr being sold at a discount price, obvioulely sourced abroad.

Or it's more likely existing stock. The new Toblerone hadn't been out that long when you were there last week. The story only broke around the 7/8 Nov.

[Britething]

Government urged not to appeal (for all the wrong reasons):

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38034411

"a massive vote for Leave". Really? When?

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Britething
	Government urged not to appeal (for all the wrong reasons): http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38034411 "a massive vote for Leave". Really? When?

23rd June - in case you missed it.

Leave the European Union 17,410,742 51.89%