The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Reb77Br]

From Politico: Brexit voters less likely to change their underpants every day

"The polling organization YouGov carried out a survey into the U.K.’s clothes washing habits. It found that 84 percent of those surveyed changed their underpants every day.

That figure rose to 89 percent for those who voted Remain, and fell to 81 percent for Leave voters.

That’s a large enough gap to have swung the referendum result.

Of the four biggest political parties, UKIP voters were most likely not to change their underwear every day, with just 79 percent saying they made a daily change. For Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, the figure was 87 percent, and for Tories it was 85 percent.

One percent of all those surveyed did not know how often they changed their underpants."

[Blueangel]

Even John Major's weighing in on this now. Didn't expect that!

	Quote:
	John Major: case for second Brexit referendum is credible ‘Tyranny of majority’ should not dictate manner of exit from EU, says former PM in remarks likely to anger pro-Brexit Tories

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ond-referendum

[Reb77Br]

That's interesting. Perhaps Major and Blair are coordinating their efforts.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Even John Major's weighing in on this now. Didn't expect that! https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ond-referendum

yes its turning into a powerful old-guard of people. I think they have the best chance of altering course because they all know what they are doing unlike the current collection of infant chimpanzee's that pass off as a government and opposition. If I were Farage, if Major, Blair and other big old timers join us, I would be worried. People might not like Tony Blair or John Major, but they know what they are doing.

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	yes its turning into a powerful old-guard of people. I think they have the best chance of altering course because they all know what they are doing unlike the current collection of infant chimpanzee's that pass off as a government and opposition. If I were Farage, if Major, Blair and other big old timers join us, I would be worried. People might not like Tony Blair or John Major, but they know what they are doing.

I am not sure if they are really powerful; maybe just bored and dabbling.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Even John Major's weighing in on this now. Didn't expect that! https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ond-referendum

John Major would do well to remember he ran a government which the majority of the population didn't vote for. He can shove his "tyranny of the majority" up his arse.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	John Major would do well to remember he ran a government which the majority of the population didn't vote for. He can shove his "tyranny of the majority" up his arse.

You mean like the majority of the population who didn't vote for Brexit?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	John Major would do well to remember he ran a government which the majority of the population didn't vote for. He can shove his "tyranny of the majority" up his arse.

You mean like every UK government ever?

OK apart from a couple of coalitions.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Net savings of 200 million a week, whats not to like

Perhaps that according to the same set of forecasts it costs about 500 million a week

[Blueangel]

This would be an interesting option if it came to fruition...

	Quote:
	Britons could pay to keep EU benefits post-Brexit under new plans The European Parliament's lead Brexit negotiator backs plans to let UK citizens "opt in" individually to EU membership.

http://news.sky.com/story/britons-co...plans-10672332

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This would be an interesting option if it came to fruition... http://news.sky.com/story/britons-co...plans-10672332

To have substance it would require a treaty change....

Of course there is always room for something like the Certificate of Irish Heritage that the Irish government sell to mainly Americans! After all 17m * €150 pa is a nice little earner and it has potential to go global.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

And yet another legal challenge to end up in the courts.

"The government is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU, the BBC has learned.

Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.

They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide.

But the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38126899

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	And yet another legal challenge to end up in the courts. "The government is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU, the BBC has learned. Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market. They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide. But the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38126899

As I wrote in post 5281 "The whole thing is new and potentially a legal minefield. "

So far we have had legal challenges from Northern Ireland and UK which have been referred to the Supreme Court where Scotland and Wales plus two other groups have been given permission to join in.

Now this latest challenge is a question about EEA rules so potentially could be finally decided in a European court; the article did not mention this possibility!

	Quote:
	At the judicial level [EEA] disagreements may, depending on the parties to the dispute and the issue at stake, be brought before ECJ, the EFTA Court of Justice, national courts and ad hoc arbitration tribunals.

It is interesting to mention the referendum was specifically about leaving the EU; it did not mention leaving the EEA.

	Quote:
	the EU rules largely apply within EEA Member States. In particular, the four fundamental freedoms of the EU – free movement of capital, goods, services and persons – apply in full to all EEA Member States,

	Quote:
	The EEA Agreement provides that all EU legislation in the policy areas of the Single Market shall be incorporated into the EEA Agreement

	Quote:
	the EEA Agreement does not cover EU policies such as: common agriculture and fisheries policies; customs union; common trade policy; common foreign and security policy; justice and home affairs; taxation or economic and monetary union.

[marton]

Interesting article here (might be behind a paywall) in the FT today about which cards UK could play in the Brexit negotiation.

One new one is an attempt to split the EU negotiating power and solidarity of the 27 countries by offering Eastern European countries special terms for their citizens in UK or even offering them financial support; how well this would be accepted by the Brexiteers is a good question!

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide.

How exactly is that UK's decision?

	Quote:	marton
	As I wrote in post 5281 "The whole thing is new and potentially a legal minefield. "

Of course it is. That makes explicit order by UK Parliament all the more important.

	Quote:	marton
	It is interesting to mention the referendum was specifically about leaving the EU; it did not mention leaving the EEA.

§50.3:
"The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2 [.. unless extension is agreed upon ...]"

"Treaties" applies to the treaties of Nice, Amsterdam, Maastricht and the Single European Act (yes, not the Single European Market Act). If challenged (who could? certainly not just any EU individual?) the ECJ will have to decide what is included, in my mind there is no doubt on what they'll rule.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	How exactly is that UK's decision? Of course it is. That makes explicit order by UK Parliament all the more important. §50.3: "The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2 [.. unless extension is agreed upon ...]" "Treaties" applies to the treaties of Nice, Amsterdam, Maastricht and the Single European Act (yes, not the Single European Market Act). If challenged (who could? certainly not just any EU individual?) the ECJ will have to decide what is included, in my mind there is no doubt on what they'll rule.

BTW, membership of EEA is not automatic for an EU country. They have to apply and the membership agreement will only enter into force once formally ratified by EU Member States and the EEA/EFTA countries; Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
For example Croatia ran into problems and had a long negotiation with Norway before membership was agreed.

[Urs Max]

Apparently May aims for a hard Brexit, i.e. no EEA, according to info leaked by the telegraph.

[dodgyken]

Almost 7000 posts and the UK is still part of the EU.

[Blueangel]

Holy cow! This would put the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened....

	Quote:
	Advocate general Eleanor Sharpston QC said Luxembourg would not interfere with the Government's Supreme Court appeal against a ruling that the Brexit process cannot begin without a parliamentary vote. However, she said the ECJ was "fully aware of the sensitivity and delicacy and constitutional importance of the issue" - anticipating that the Supreme Court may refer it for a hearing in the European court's 28-member chamber of judges, which includes one British judge.

http://news.sky.com/story/european-c...le-50-10677193

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Holy cow! This would put the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened.... http://news.sky.com/story/european-c...le-50-10677193

She also said;

	Quote:
	"If you join the club and you wish to leave the club, you leave in accordance with the rules when you join the club … the rules of this club are the ones contained in Article 50, and the interpretation of those rules is a matter for this Court (the ECJ)."