The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Holy cow! This would put the cat amongst the pigeons if it happened....

At this stage who knows! She is not a judge of the court, but an Advocate general's opinion is not something that should be easily discounted.

Normally judgments in other jurisdictions do not hold much sway with the judges, that is unless you don't have one of your own, as in this case... That's where the Irish Supreme Court comes in, back in 1987 it ruled that in treaty matters the constitution took precedence.

Now if you look back at decisions in the UK and the former dominions in particular, it very rare from them to rule in dramatically ways when dealing with similar subject matter. So my expectation is that it will stop at the UK Supreme Court. But only time will tell.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	At this stage who knows! She is not a judge of the court, but an Advocate general's opinion is not something that should be easily discounted. Normally judgments in other jurisdictions do not hold much sway with the judges, that is unless you don't have one of your own, as in this case... That's where the Irish Supreme Court comes in, back in 1987 it ruled that in treaty matters the constitution took precedence. Now if you look back at decisions in the UK and the former dominions in particular, it very rare from them to rule in dramatically ways when dealing with similar subject matter. So my expectation is that it will stop at the UK Supreme Court. But only time will tell.

Probably 100% correct.
However it would be amusing if May obtained a decision to invoke Art. 50 without Parliamentary approval and then the EU refused to accept the invocation; unlikely I know!

[marton]

	Quote:
	Angela Merkel rebuffed a request by Theresa May for assurances that Britons living in the European Union and EU citizens living in the U.K. would keep their rights to residence, work and healthcare after Brexit. The German chancellor’s polite but firm “Nein” when the two leaders met in Berlin on November 18 dashed the British prime minister’s hopes of a quick, informal deal to reassure expatriates on both sides of the Channel that they will not lose out when Britain leaves the EU,

Source

Would be nice to read some facts instead of rumours spread by both sides?

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	Source Would be nice to read some facts instead of rumours spread by both sides?

I would be amazed if it resulted in people being kicked out from either side. I know the scare stories of people having to sell their home of 50 years in france are bandied around and people who have plainly got no interest in economics and only to have a hissy fit like the French bloke Tusk say things like that but in reality we are not going to kick out people settled here and the continent arent going to boot out people settled there.

	Quote:	Mikers
	... the French bloke Tusk ....

He's Polish...

I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....

[marton]

	Quote:
	He's Polish... I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....

Maybe he was thinking about Junker? Who anyway comes from Luxembourg

	Quote:
	He's Polish... I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....

The interesting thing about Donald Tusk - a respected polish historian,btw - he got on very well with Cameron in the past, sympathetic to some of the reforms he/ Britain was trying to bring about. I always saw him as quite supportive of the UK.

Is panic setting in with the EU leaders, I wonder? It's difficult to know what is going on.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	He's Polish... I mention as this might have a bearing on his opinion in the matter....

Ok polish then. Might not have a bearing on his opinion on the matter.

Anyway same outcome, people won't be kicked out.

	Quote:	Mikers
	Ok polish then. Might not have a bearing on his opinion on the matter. Anyway same outcome, people won't be kicked out.

..as long as they have a job anyway. Could well imagine them loosing their entitlement to unemployment benefit though. Could also see Switzerland cancelling B permits for the same reason. Plus the C only being available after 10 years.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	..as long as they have a job anyway. Could well imagine them loosing their entitlement to unemployment benefit though. Could also see Switzerland cancelling B permits for the same reason. Plus the C only being available after 10 years.

I think your unemployment benefits right will be longer yes agree. Switzerland stuff I don't think, I think uk and ch will agree their own protocol. What benefit would Switzerland have by cancelling b permits ?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Anyway same outcome, people won't be kicked out.

I know quite a few who said Brexit won't happen.

Granted it's not likely but until after it's actually happened you don't know. The fact that about 1mln of the 3.5mln are Polish may actually help as long as Tusk keeps his job.

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think your unemployment benefits right will be longer yes agree. Switzerland stuff I don't think, I think uk and ch will agree their own protocol. What benefit would Switzerland have by cancelling b permits ?

...to be clear I mean on unemployment. If you're on a B and loose your job you'll be out.

I very much doubt there will be any special UK - Switzerland agreement however. No more than there is any special Switzerland - USA agreement.

[marton]

	Quote:
	...to be clear I mean on unemployment. If you're on a B and loose your job you'll be out. I very much doubt there will be any special UK - Switzerland agreement however. No more than there is any special Switzerland - USA agreement.

When it is Swiss permit renewal time then I assume UK people will in future be treated the same as other non-EU people so no more automatic permit renewal.
Plus permits will be renewed according to the non-EU time schedule so no more 5 year permits for UK people.
That of course is different from being "kicked out" and will also be subject to any Brexit agreements which are as yet unknown.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	...to be clear I mean on unemployment. If you're on a B and loose your job you'll be out. I very much doubt there will be any special UK - Switzerland agreement however. No more than there is any special Switzerland - USA agreement.

At permit renewal you'd be out. I think there will be a ch-gb agreement because britains status is changing, which will trigger a discussion.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	... but in reality we are not going to kick out people settled here and the continent arent going to boot out people settled there.

The UK already do boot people out, or at least threaten them with it. The cases below are just one person and a family Imagine that time, effort and expense to fight the cases of everyone who could be affected.

	Quote:
	Home Office makes U-turn on deporting Scot who emigrated from US 30 years ago Officials at the Home Office have accepted that a woman who has a Scottish mother; has lived in Scotland for nearly 30 years and who is married to a Scot is British. Crystal MacIver, 44, was threatened with deportation because of an administrative bungle made 28 years ago. However, Ms MacIver has now been confirmed a British citizen.

http://www.scottishlegal.com/2015/07...30-years-ago/#

	Quote:
	An Australian family is facing imminent deportation was still hopeful last night of remaining in the UK despite apparently missing a deadline to meet visa requirements Kathryn and Gregg Brain, who live in the Scottish Highlands, had until midnight to secure a job for Mrs Brain that meets Home Office visa requirements, after being granted an extension on their leave to remain. But there was no announcement as the deadline passed.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7165736.html

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	At permit renewal you'd be out. I think there will be a ch-gb agreement because britains status is changing, which will trigger a discussion.

So far as I understand under EU and EFTA rules Switzerland is not allowed to make such agreements with other countries?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think there will be a ch-gb agreement because britains status is changing...

Has changed!

My OH's B permit is for 5yrs (Greek passport) but my B permit, issued in September, is for 2yrs (British passport).

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	When it is Swiss permit renewal time then I assume UK people will in future be treated the same as other non-EU people so no more automatic permit renewal. Plus permits will be renewed according to the non-EU time schedule so no more 5 year permits for UK people. That of course is different from being "kicked out" and will also be subject to any Brexit agreements which are as yet unknown.

Thinking about it I was assuming that the Brexit agreements will also apply to Switzerland but now I am not sure if the bilaterals would cover this situation.

Anyway I am not sure how relevant the Brexit agreements (other than any trade agreement) would be for Switzerland. If there are relevant topics then maybe some changes to the bilaterals will be needed?

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Apparently May aims for a hard Brexit, i.e. no EEA, according to info leaked by the telegraph.

"Leaked by the telegraph", it was pictured by every photographer on Downing Street. This is more likely than not a stunt to provoke a reaction. Trolling if you will. A writing pad with all those notes on various topics in plain view of the photographers? I don't think so.

	Quote:	marton
	Source Would be nice to read some facts instead of rumours spread by both sides?

Can't see this happening either:

1. More EU citizens in the UK than Brits in the EU.
2. More Germans in the UK than Brits in Germany.

For all your legal arguments, here's an interesting article:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/britai...the-eu-2016-11

Have you mentioned it before?