View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen? |
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union
|    | 49 | 23.11% |
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU
|    | 68 | 32.08% |
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK
|    | 22 | 10.38% |
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing
|    | 23 | 10.85% |
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us
|    | 17 | 8.02% |
I don't really care
|    | 33 | 15.57% |  | | | 
30.11.2016, 16:44
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: May 2008 Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,755
Groaned at 430 Times in 371 Posts
Thanked 17,888 Times in 9,538 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | | | | | | This article basically states that we do not need to invoke Art. 50 instead we can just announce we are leaving.
However I do not see anywhere in this link a solution to the legal problem of "who is authorised to make the announcement". The question is can May do this or does it require a vote by Parliament to make it legal; this question has not changed?
Indeed the article states "Thus, as provided in Article 50(1), a Member State may withdraw without any other conditions “ in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements”.
The whole legal argument is about "what exactly are the UK constitutional arrangements".
The fact the constitution is not written just makes the situation more complicated, not easier.
__________________
It is naive to assume my posts are my own work | 
30.11.2016, 16:56
| Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Vaud
Posts: 2,433
Groaned at 171 Times in 119 Posts
Thanked 4,820 Times in 1,863 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | | | | | | Pretty extreme example. How many people who have been here for 30 years do we deport each year ?
| 
30.11.2016, 16:58
| Forum Legend | | Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 8,168
Groaned at 387 Times in 295 Posts
Thanked 10,616 Times in 5,604 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in
One-sided action doesn't remove the obligations entered into by the UK during its membership. That's what the negotiations will be about - without them I reckon they simply remain in force as is, to be co-financed by the UK. Some of which will keep being effective for many decennials, e.g. EU employee pensions.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:05
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Küsnacht, Switzerland
Posts: 3,889
Groaned at 105 Times in 96 Posts
Thanked 10,610 Times in 4,679 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | Can't see this happening either:
1. More EU citizens in the UK than Brits in the EU.
2. More Germans in the UK than Brits in Germany. | | | | | Just because the numbers are large, the process will be messy, time consuming, expensive, contentious, legally challenging, immensely disruptive and heart breaking for millions of people, doesn't mean it won't happen.
I was on the phone with one of my best mates earlier discussing this for the umpteenth time. She has dual Australian / Croatian nationality and passports for those two countries. She is married the (British) guy who looks after my house in the UK and has four children by him. Because she will inherit a substantial amount of property in both of the countries whose nationality she holds, she cannot surrender one of those passports in favour of a British one without taking a huge financial hit.
There are millions of people like her who only have UK residency and currently, they have no guarantees that they will be allowed to stay in the UK.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:08
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Küsnacht, Switzerland
Posts: 3,889
Groaned at 105 Times in 96 Posts
Thanked 10,610 Times in 4,679 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | Pretty extreme example. How many people who have been here for 30 years do we deport each year ? | | | | | The extremity of the examples doesn't matter because it's factual.
As for the length of residency before deportation, I don't know. Do you?
| 
30.11.2016, 17:08
| Forum Legend | | Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 8,168
Groaned at 387 Times in 295 Posts
Thanked 10,616 Times in 5,604 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | Pretty extreme example. How many people who have been here for 30 years do we deport each year ? | | | | | 40-50k got booted annually in recent years, 10-20% of them Europeans.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:14
| Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Vaud
Posts: 2,433
Groaned at 171 Times in 119 Posts
Thanked 4,820 Times in 1,863 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | 40-50k got booted annually in recent years, 10-20% of them Europeans. | | | | | care to show me some text outlining that we boot out 50k people per year who have each been here for at least 30 years ?
| 
30.11.2016, 17:16
| Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Vaud
Posts: 2,433
Groaned at 171 Times in 119 Posts
Thanked 4,820 Times in 1,863 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | The extremity of the examples doesn't matter because it's factual.
As for the length of residency before deportation, I don't know. Do you? | | | | | yes but nothing ever works for everyone. thats not just linked to brexit its linked to any large scale operation of anything. for any big topic in the world you can pick out extreme examples.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:22
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | This article basically states that we do not need to invoke Art. 50 instead we can just announce we are leaving.
However I do not see anywhere in this link a solution to the legal problem of "who is authorised to make the announcement". The question is can May do this or does it require a vote by Parliament to make it legal; this question has not changed?
Indeed the article states "Thus, as provided in Article 50(1), a Member State may withdraw without any other conditions “in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements”.
The whole legal argument is about "what exactly are the UK constitutional arrangements".
The fact the constitution is not written just makes the situation more complicated, not easier. | | | | | Who does it is a bit academic, because it's going to be done. The majority of politicians are for approving it. There's nothing to discuss. So you just need a bill for Article 50.1 and you're done, three line whip and all that and bye bye.
This article was a few days ago and hasn't got any media, but it seems a simple exit for me.
On another note, have you seen Italy is looking down the barrel of a 40 billion bailout for it's banks, Austria votes this weekend, Juncker has said he doesn't want any more referendums. It's not exactly smelling of roses in Euro Land.
There are the MEI discussions today, so that's not gone away.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:25
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: May 2008 Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,755
Groaned at 430 Times in 371 Posts
Thanked 17,888 Times in 9,538 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | 40-50k got booted annually in recent years, 10-20% of them Europeans. | | | | | This link claims over 40K in 2015!
Or here is an official UK Govt. table but it is not so easy to understand - it seems to show over 50K in 2015; voluntary departures seem to be people who left before they were forced to leave, or something!
| 
30.11.2016, 17:27
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Küsnacht, Switzerland
Posts: 3,889
Groaned at 105 Times in 96 Posts
Thanked 10,610 Times in 4,679 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | for any big topic in the world you can pick out extreme examples. | | | | | They were just the first two Google results, but I was aware of the American woman's case at the time.
If you say those cases are extreme and take the other end of the scale as being large scale deportations won't happen, then it stands to reason that the truth will be something inbetween. None of us know at this point in time, and we probably won't know until March 2019. That's a long time for people to live with uncertainty. It's a long time for people to be penalised because of that uncertainty.
I don't pretend to know your personal situation, but just be aware when you come to have your permit renewed please. Check the renewal date on it. I'm not wishing that on you, I just think we'll see more of it.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:27
| Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Vaud
Posts: 2,433
Groaned at 171 Times in 119 Posts
Thanked 4,820 Times in 1,863 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | This link claims over 40K in 2015!
Or here is an official UK Govt. table but it is not so easy to understand - it seems to show over 50K in 2015; voluntary departures seem to be people who left before they were forced to leave, or something! | | | | | and so we dont twist the argument as you are doing. the question was how many WHO HAVE BEEN HERE MORE THAN 30 YEARS get deported each year. is it 50k ?
| 
30.11.2016, 17:32
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Rheintal
Posts: 4,219
Groaned at 160 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 7,347 Times in 3,360 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | Who does it is a bit academic, because it's going to be done. The majority of politicians are for approving it. There's nothing to discuss. So you just need a bill for Article 50.1 and you're done, three line whip and all that and bye bye. | | | | | Yes, it will pass. But most certainly not without discussion. And rightly so.
| 
30.11.2016, 17:44
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Rheintal
Posts: 4,219
Groaned at 160 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 7,347 Times in 3,360 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | I'm not wishing that on you. | | | | | I am. Maybe. Not personally but in general and principal.
Honestly and as has been stated before, I still find it very hard to understand that any UK citizen who voted in favour of Brexit can stay here with a clear conscience unless they have strong family connections to Switzerland.
| The following 2 users would like to thank baboon for this useful post: | | This user groans at baboon for this post: | | 
30.11.2016, 17:48
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | with a clear conscience . | | | | | why? when you believe it is best for all.
| 
30.11.2016, 18:09
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Küsnacht, Switzerland
Posts: 3,889
Groaned at 105 Times in 96 Posts
Thanked 10,610 Times in 4,679 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | Honestly and as has been stated before, I still find it very hard to understand that any UK citizen who voted in favour of Brexit can stay here with a clear conscience unless they have strong family connections to Switzerland. | | | | | Totally agree. I've heard from friends that the the Leave vote was much larger with expats in Spain than anyone expected. I really don't understand why.
| 
30.11.2016, 18:12
| Forum Legend | | Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 8,168
Groaned at 387 Times in 295 Posts
Thanked 10,616 Times in 5,604 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | care to show me some text outlining that we boot out 50k people per year who have each been here for at least 30 years ? | | | | | Blueangel, who you replied to, says people get kicked, I provided the numbers. That's all. Except that if the situation changes these numbers will be dwarfed. | Quote: | |  | | | This link claims over 40K in 2015!
Or here is an official UK Govt. table but it is not so easy to understand - it seems to show over 50K in 2015; voluntary departures seem to be people who left before they were forced to leave, or something! | | | | | That's where I got the numbers from. Voluntarily leave means: They left after the process or forceful deporation has been initiated but not progressed yet to actual deportation.
| The following 2 users would like to thank Urs Max for this useful post: | | 
30.11.2016, 18:29
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Rheintal
Posts: 4,219
Groaned at 160 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 7,347 Times in 3,360 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | why? when you believe it is best for all. | | | | | If you believed it was best for all you wouldn't have voted Brexit. You believe it's best for you but that others shouldn't benefit.
| 
30.11.2016, 18:30
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Rheintal
Posts: 4,219
Groaned at 160 Times in 139 Posts
Thanked 7,347 Times in 3,360 Posts
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | Totally agree. I've heard from friends that the the Leave vote was much larger with expats in Spain than anyone expected. I really don't understand why. | | | | | Given that most are pensioners and are going to suffer from health insurance issues that I really don't get.
| This user would like to thank baboon for this useful post: | | 
30.11.2016, 18:40
| | Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in | Quote: | |  | | | If you believed it was best for all you wouldn't have voted Brexit. You believe it's best for you but that others shouldn't benefit. | | | | | that is a typical irrational arrogant comment, that doesn't respect the ability of others to have the opinions they do.
your username says it all
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 11 (0 members and 11 guests) | | Thread Tools | | Display Modes | Linear Mode |
Posting Rules
| You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts HTML code is Off | | | All times are GMT +2. The time now is 12:18. | |