The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	For all your legal arguments, here's an interesting article: http://uk.businessinsider.com/britai...the-eu-2016-11 Have you mentioned it before?

This article basically states that we do not need to invoke Art. 50 instead we can just announce we are leaving.

However I do not see anywhere in this link a solution to the legal problem of "who is authorised to make the announcement". The question is can May do this or does it require a vote by Parliament to make it legal; this question has not changed?
Indeed the article states "Thus, as provided in Article 50(1), a Member State may withdraw without any other conditions “in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements”.
The whole legal argument is about "what exactly are the UK constitutional arrangements".
The fact the constitution is not written just makes the situation more complicated, not easier.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The UK already do boot people out, or at least threaten them with it. The cases below are just one person and a family Imagine that time, effort and expense to fight the cases of everyone who could be affected. http://www.scottishlegal.com/2015/07...30-years-ago/# http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7165736.html

Pretty extreme example. How many people who have been here for 30 years do we deport each year ?

[Urs Max]

One-sided action doesn't remove the obligations entered into by the UK during its membership. That's what the negotiations will be about - without them I reckon they simply remain in force as is, to be co-financed by the UK. Some of which will keep being effective for many decennials, e.g. EU employee pensions.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Can't see this happening either: 1. More EU citizens in the UK than Brits in the EU. 2. More Germans in the UK than Brits in Germany.

Just because the numbers are large, the process will be messy, time consuming, expensive, contentious, legally challenging, immensely disruptive and heart breaking for millions of people, doesn't mean it won't happen.

I was on the phone with one of my best mates earlier discussing this for the umpteenth time. She has dual Australian / Croatian nationality and passports for those two countries. She is married the (British) guy who looks after my house in the UK and has four children by him. Because she will inherit a substantial amount of property in both of the countries whose nationality she holds, she cannot surrender one of those passports in favour of a British one without taking a huge financial hit.

There are millions of people like her who only have UK residency and currently, they have no guarantees that they will be allowed to stay in the UK.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Pretty extreme example. How many people who have been here for 30 years do we deport each year ?

The extremity of the examples doesn't matter because it's factual.

As for the length of residency before deportation, I don't know. Do you?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Pretty extreme example. How many people who have been here for 30 years do we deport each year ?

40-50k got booted annually in recent years, 10-20% of them Europeans.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	40-50k got booted annually in recent years, 10-20% of them Europeans.

care to show me some text outlining that we boot out 50k people per year who have each been here for at least 30 years ?

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The extremity of the examples doesn't matter because it's factual. As for the length of residency before deportation, I don't know. Do you?

yes but nothing ever works for everyone. thats not just linked to brexit its linked to any large scale operation of anything. for any big topic in the world you can pick out extreme examples.

	Quote:	marton
	This article basically states that we do not need to invoke Art. 50 instead we can just announce we are leaving. However I do not see anywhere in this link a solution to the legal problem of "who is authorised to make the announcement". The question is can May do this or does it require a vote by Parliament to make it legal; this question has not changed? Indeed the article states "Thus, as provided in Article 50(1), a Member State may withdraw without any other conditions “in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements”. The whole legal argument is about "what exactly are the UK constitutional arrangements". The fact the constitution is not written just makes the situation more complicated, not easier.

Who does it is a bit academic, because it's going to be done. The majority of politicians are for approving it. There's nothing to discuss. So you just need a bill for Article 50.1 and you're done, three line whip and all that and bye bye.

This article was a few days ago and hasn't got any media, but it seems a simple exit for me.

On another note, have you seen Italy is looking down the barrel of a 40 billion bailout for it's banks, Austria votes this weekend, Juncker has said he doesn't want any more referendums. It's not exactly smelling of roses in Euro Land.

There are the MEI discussions today, so that's not gone away.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	40-50k got booted annually in recent years, 10-20% of them Europeans.

This link claims over 40K in 2015!

Or here is an official UK Govt. table but it is not so easy to understand - it seems to show over 50K in 2015; voluntary departures seem to be people who left before they were forced to leave, or something!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	for any big topic in the world you can pick out extreme examples.

They were just the first two Google results, but I was aware of the American woman's case at the time.

If you say those cases are extreme and take the other end of the scale as being large scale deportations won't happen, then it stands to reason that the truth will be something inbetween. None of us know at this point in time, and we probably won't know until March 2019. That's a long time for people to live with uncertainty. It's a long time for people to be penalised because of that uncertainty.

I don't pretend to know your personal situation, but just be aware when you come to have your permit renewed please. Check the renewal date on it. I'm not wishing that on you, I just think we'll see more of it.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	This link claims over 40K in 2015! Or here is an official UK Govt. table but it is not so easy to understand - it seems to show over 50K in 2015; voluntary departures seem to be people who left before they were forced to leave, or something!

and so we dont twist the argument as you are doing. the question was how many WHO HAVE BEEN HERE MORE THAN 30 YEARS get deported each year. is it 50k ?

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Who does it is a bit academic, because it's going to be done. The majority of politicians are for approving it. There's nothing to discuss. So you just need a bill for Article 50.1 and you're done, three line whip and all that and bye bye.

Yes, it will pass. But most certainly not without discussion. And rightly so.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I'm not wishing that on you.

I am. Maybe. Not personally but in general and principal.


Honestly and as has been stated before, I still find it very hard to understand that any UK citizen who voted in favour of Brexit can stay here with a clear conscience unless they have strong family connections to Switzerland.

	Quote:
	with a clear conscience .

why? when you believe it is best for all.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Honestly and as has been stated before, I still find it very hard to understand that any UK citizen who voted in favour of Brexit can stay here with a clear conscience unless they have strong family connections to Switzerland.

Totally agree. I've heard from friends that the the Leave vote was much larger with expats in Spain than anyone expected. I really don't understand why.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	care to show me some text outlining that we boot out 50k people per year who have each been here for at least 30 years ?

Blueangel, who you replied to, says people get kicked, I provided the numbers. That's all. Except that if the situation changes these numbers will be dwarfed.

	Quote:	marton
	This link claims over 40K in 2015! Or here is an official UK Govt. table but it is not so easy to understand - it seems to show over 50K in 2015; voluntary departures seem to be people who left before they were forced to leave, or something!

That's where I got the numbers from. Voluntarily leave means: They left after the process or forceful deporation has been initiated but not progressed yet to actual deportation.

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	why? when you believe it is best for all.

If you believed it was best for all you wouldn't have voted Brexit. You believe it's best for you but that others shouldn't benefit.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Totally agree. I've heard from friends that the the Leave vote was much larger with expats in Spain than anyone expected. I really don't understand why.

Given that most are pensioners and are going to suffer from health insurance issues that I really don't get.

	Quote:
	If you believed it was best for all you wouldn't have voted Brexit. You believe it's best for you but that others shouldn't benefit.

that is a typical irrational arrogant comment, that doesn't respect the ability of others to have the opinions they do.

your username says it all