The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

Labour with 3.7% of the vote lost their deposit. Things going well under Corbyn.

[Blueangel]

I wouldn't call it a resounding victory for the LibDems, but when the top three candidates were all standing on an anti-Heathrow expansion ticket (and rightly so) the deciding factor was their Brexit stance...or was it?

We all know that Richmond is an affluent area, so would they really put all their faith in an independent candidate over an establishment, party backed candidate?

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I wouldn't call it a resounding victory for the LibDems, but when the top three candidates were all standing on an anti-Heathrow expansion ticket (and rightly so) the deciding factor was their Brexit stance...or was it? We all know that Richmond is an affluent area, so would they really put all their faith in an independent candidate over an establishment, party backed candidate?

Exactly, this was all about Brexit. Frank voted to leave, Richmond voted to stay. This is what happens when you don't "represent" your constituents.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I wouldn't call it a resounding victory for the LibDems, but when the top three candidates were all standing on an anti-Heathrow expansion ticket (and rightly so) the deciding factor was their Brexit stance...or was it? We all know that Richmond is an affluent area, so would they really put all their faith in an independent candidate over an establishment, party backed candidate?

On the one side it overturned a 23,000 majority which in UK terms is not too shabby. On the other side Richmond has a history of electing LibDem MPs. Labour haven't had a look-in there for decades.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Exactly, this was all about Brexit. Frank voted to leave, Richmond voted to stay. This is what happens when you don't "represent" your constituents.

I'm just watching some of the coverage from when the result was announced last night, and I didn't know that, for the referendum, the Richmond constituency was split into Richmond - 69.3% Remain, and Kingston - 61.6% Remain.

I wonder if there are any constituencies that had a similar split, but where one side voted Remain and the other Leave?

Oh dear. Did you keep the receipt? Let's hope you can change it for something that you do like this time...

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/...-stay-12258741

[Blueangel]

I do find that hard to believe and wonder if they would have got the same result if they'd polled 100k. There's a stubborness at play here and being quite stubborn myself, I can recognise it a mile off.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I do find that hard to believe and wonder if they would have got the same result if they'd polled 100k. There's a stubborness at play here and being quite stubborn myself, I can recognise it a mile off.

yes I agree on this one. Its where im from and Im pretty amazed if a broad sample of the local population has had such a sudden change of heart.

That said, I am beginning to wonder what's going to happen now. There are legal challenges, political heavyweights and all sorts of players lining up and what with Boris Johnson and David Davies talking single market access perhaps we will end up staying in, which is a good thing economically, but a bad thing democratically speaking. One of the most fascinating days in the future will arrive if this manages to get turned around because I just can't imagine what will happen. will the people who voted out just shrug their shoulders and say "well, maybe next time" ? will there be tanks on the street ? its quite a wide window of possibilities.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I wouldn't call it a resounding victory for the LibDems, but when the top three candidates were all standing on an anti-Heathrow expansion ticket (and rightly so) the deciding factor was their Brexit stance...or was it? We all know that Richmond is an affluent area, so would they really put all their faith in an independent candidate over an establishment, party backed candidate?

The establishment Labour party backed candidate lost almost 9% of their votes!
I am sure Brexit was a factor but whether it was the deciding factor I suppose we will never know.
As I have posted before the chances of May holding Maidenhead seat in a future election must be declining; Maidenhead voted Remain and against Heathrow extension.

So Tory majority is now 13 and there are 72 Tory constituencies who voted Remain! May has a difficult path to walk

Maybe we can draw a lesson from the Witney by-election last October which seems to show another big LibDem trend and down trends for Labour and UKIP?

By-election 2016: Witney
Conservative Robert Courts 17,313 45.0 -15.2%
Liberal Democrat Liz Leffman 11,611 30.2 +23.4%

General election
Conservative David Cameron 35,201
Liberal Democrat Andy Graham 3,953

Source

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	yes I agree on this one. Its where im from and Im pretty amazed if a broad sample of the local population has had such a sudden change of heart. That said, I am beginning to wonder what's going to happen now. There are legal challenges, political heavyweights and all sorts of players lining up and what with Boris Johnson and David Davies talking single market access perhaps we will end up staying in, which is a good thing economically, but a bad thing democratically speaking. One of the most fascinating days in the future will arrive if this manages to get turned around because I just can't imagine what will happen. will the people who voted out just shrug their shoulders and say "well, maybe next time" ? will there be tanks on the street ? its quite a wide window of possibilities.

"a bad thing democratically speaking" The basic problem is that the Leave message was "Leave EU" but it was never defined what exactly that meant.

• Did it mean stop trading with Europe? I doubt it?
• Did it mean stop immigration? Probably many people thought that.
• Did it mean stop paying EU and spend the savings in UK? Most people thought that but how practical is it?
• Did it mean restoring British sovereignty? Probably but what that means is difficult to know; look at the reaction to Parliament voting on invoking Art. 50.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	"a bad thing democratically speaking" The basic problem is that the Leave message was "Leave EU" but it was never defined what exactly that meant. Did it mean stop trading with Europe? I doubt it? Did it mean stop immigration? Probably many people thought that. Did it mean stop paying EU and spend the savings in UK? Most people thought that but how practical is it? Did it mean restoring British sovereignty? Probably but what that means is difficult to know; look at the reaction to Parliament voting on invoking Art. 50.

Isn't this preciely what is mean when people speak of a systemic democracy deficit.

The vote could not have promised any of these things as the EU was not prepared to negotiate ahead of the Brexit vote, and is in fact not prepared to negotiate until after Article 50 has been invoked.

In an ideal world, there would have been negotiations ahead of the Brexit vote with one or several scenarios being put forward answering all these questions and with the EU's assurance that they would agree to that if such was the democratic will of the people. Or at least a clear set of alternatives so the voters would know what would be acceptable to the EU and what would not. But those alternatives would have had to be made in good faith and with good intentions rather than to stifly and prevent any dissent as the present situation is.

There could have thus been an orderly discussion during the Bexit campaign of the pros and cons of the different scenarios and a or series of votes taken. In reality we were just compating imagined and hypothetcal scenarios.

By slamming the door on any such pre- negotiations, the EU is effectively blocking any ordered and controlled path to a EU exit. So whereas they may claim that an exit is possible in principle, in practice there is no orderly and thought through process in place to permit an exit under known and understood conditions. Or indeed as the FMOP vote in Switzerland has shown, an orderly path to renegotiation.

The EU has thus made itself to an inflexible and undemocratic behemoth that does not offer its members any genuine alternative to further integration.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	If this gets blocked on some ridiculous out dated legal pretext then there will be seventeen and a half million very pissed off people. Just imagine the protests. If this is blocked either of the following will happen: 1) May calls a General Election over single policy of Brexit and strolls to a 100+ majority 2) Royal prerogative (equally outdated) is used to invoke Art. 50 anyhow Either way, the outcome remains the same. Brexit will happen.

Well let us take the example of a constituency that is 60% pro-Brexit.
In a future general election there are three pro-Brexit candidates (Tory, Labour, UKIP) sharing 60% of the votes and one Remain party (LibDem) looking at 40% .
So who has the best chance of winning the seat?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Last edited by Mikers; Today at 13:02. Reason: Better punctuation so I dont get in trouble with Blueangel

Awww bless. You're not lazy with your punctuation, and your posts are always comprehensible.

I don't believe we would see tanks on the streets, but I do believe there would be riots, demonstrations, etc. The North aren't inclined to "put up and shut up".

I think we can both agree that this is a disturbing, and hopefully isolated, incident in Berkshire...

	Quote:
	'White only zone' Racist posters plastered across British town spark police investigation

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/738...-Valley-Police

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Isn't this preciely what is mean when people speak of a systemic democracy deficit. The vote could not have promised any of these things as the EU was not prepared to negotiate ahead of the Brexit vote, and is in fact not prepared to negotiate until after Article 50 has been invoked. In an ideal world, there would have been negotiations ahead of the Brexit vote with one or several scenarios being put forward answering all thee questions and with the EU's assurance that they would agree to that. There could have thus been an orderly discussion of the pros and cons of the different scenarios and a or series of votes taken. By slamming the door on any such negotiations, the EU is effectively blocking any ordered and controlled path to a EU exit. So whereas they may claim that an exit is possible in principle, in practice there is no orderly and thought through process in place to permit an exit under known and understood conditions. Or indeed as the FMOP vote in Switzerland has shown, an orderly path to renegotiation. The EU has thus made itself to an inflexible and undemocratic behemoth that does not offer its members any genuine alternative to further integration.

"The vote could not have promised " An election promise or campaign promise is a promise made to the public by a candidate or political party that are trying to win an election.
Election promises may be instrumental in getting an official elected to office.
Election promises are often abandoned once in office or prove to be impossible to achieve for some reason.

The problem May has is whatever she proposes some people will say "that is not what we expected" because the Leave campaign did not have clear set of promises that she can use as her foundation.

"there would have been negotiations ahead of the Brexit vote" There were, you forget that Cameron had these negotiations in February and obtained a deal. The voters rejected that deal!

"Or indeed as the FMOP vote in Switzerland has shown, an orderly path to renegotiation." There is/was no renegotiation; there is no proposal to change any bilateral treaty.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	There is/was no renegotiation; there is no proposal to change any bilateral treaty.

My point exactly.

The EU is offering an all or nothing scenario, knowing full well that there isn't really an alternative to the "all". But when people say the EU is being undemocratic and using its clout to force its memers and associates into line, it somehow feels misunderstood.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	amogles
	The vote could not have promised any of these things as the EU was not prepared to negotiate ahead of the Brexit vote, and is in fact not prepared to negotiate until after Article 50 has been invoked.

I do have to ask, why do you feel the EU has any responsibility to offer to negotiate prior to the invocation of article 50? Or why should it offer the UK, or anyone else, access to the single market, without adhering to freedom of movement?

The UK is seeking to negotiate it's future position as a independent entity from the EU, where it will be a separate and sovereign rival. And an entity who has essentially given the EU the finger and if it makes a success of it would only serve to undermine the EU's interests.

Basically some people seem to be living in some form of fantasy World where the EU should be nice to the UK, despite them becoming potential rivals, despite the UK having cause serious trouble for the EU and despite the fact that were the UK to get an easy time of it, it would likely damage the EU. Reverse the roles and the UK would have done nothing different.

It's called Realpolitik. I'm not really sure why anyone is debating this any more. At this stage it's only being debated by the Anglophone media and only because certain British politicians have been coming out with this nonsense because they want to claim to their voters that the EU are being rotten sports when they inevitably tell them where they can stick their cake and eat it vision of diplomacy and not because they sold everyone a fantasy in the first place.

	Quote:	marton
	The establishment Labour party backed candidate lost almost 9% of their votes!

Actually they lost almost 80% of their votes!


The trouble with taking this as a pointer for any general election trends is that UK by-elections often produce exaggerated results. Personally I think the greater availability of polling information for a single constituency make it better possible for voters to think tactically and overcome the massively flawed UK electoral system. In a general election this is less easy to achieve plus people are maybe less ready to do so.


But we can always hope....

[amogles]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	I do have to ask, why do you feel the EU has any responsibility to offer to negotiate prior to the invocation of article 50? Or why should it offer the UK, or anyone else, access to the single market, without adhering to freedom of movement? The UK is seeking to negotiate it's future position as a independent entity from the EU, where it will be a separate and sovereign rival. And an entity who has essentially given the EU the finger and if it makes a success of it would only serve to undermine the EU's interests. Basically some people seem to be living in some form of fantasy World where the EU should be nice to the UK, despite them becoming potential rivals, despite the UK having cause serious trouble for the EU and despite the fact that were the UK to get an easy time of it, it would likely damage the EU. Reverse the roles and the UK would have done nothing different. It's called Realpolitik. I'm not really sure why anyone is debating this any more. At this stage it's only being debated by the Anglophone media and only because certain British politicians have been coming out with this nonsense because they want to claim to their voters that the EU are being rotten sports when they inevitably tell them where they can stick their cake and eat it vision of diplomacy and not because they sold everyone a fantasy in the first place.

Nothing wrong with playing Realpolitik and partying as if Bismark were still alive.

But then just don't act surprised if not listening to members gets interpreted as a democarcy deficit.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	amogles
	But then just don't act surprised if not listening to members gets interpreted as a democarcy deficit.

Which member is this? UK? If so, then the negotiation is not with a member but with a soon to be rival. Or would you be generous when working out a divorce settlement because your spouse is still technically your spouse?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I do find that hard to believe and wonder if they would have got the same result if they'd polled 100k. There's a stubborness at play here and being quite stubborn myself, I can recognise it a mile off.

A representative poll starts getting reliable in the high triple-digits almost regardless of total population size. I seem to remember that for the US 2-3k are enough.

The big problem is, of course, managing to ask a representative sample in the first place, something the article doesn't claim the poll to be. But then again maybe they simply got shied by the Brexit polls' accuracy.

@Mikers "I am beginning to wonder what's going to happen now"
A re-vote as suggested long ago, though I'd find an early election where Leave/Remain and following up on the vote would take center stage a better option. Provided of course there is indeed a change of heart by a significant share of the population. Or accepting that this was a non-binding vote to begin with.