The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Hyper inflation would actually solve the debt problem, your claiming an inflation rate in excess of 100% per annum. I don't believe it.

And you're entitled to not believe it, but you could set yourself a little task to check my claim that would only take a couple of minutes per week.

Choose Tesco or Asda website, and set up a basic basket of regularly bought items. The biggest singular increases I've found in my basket are coffee and bread. The biggest 'non-basket' increase I've found is light bulbs of all things! That price increase alone sent me scuttling off to the pound shop and digging through every draw in the house for my stash of bulbs.

Edit: I've just done my basics Tesco shop online and the basket price is now £37.19 for the same 16 items I always buy on my way from the airport to my house, and that includes 10 own brand items. That's an increase of £1.30 from the £35.89 that I paid on 31 October.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	To be fair, that may well be a seasonal issue. You need to compare with 12 months ago.

Seasonal? LOL. Are people's memories so short? This was headline news only a month ago and it wasn't seasonal.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Seasonal? LOL. Are people's memories so short? This was headline news only a month ago and it wasn't seasonal.

It would be useful to keep in mind what post I replied to.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	In a longer-term perspective the FTSE-100 is roughly unchanged which translates to 15% loss in value due to the pound's drop. A picture says more than a thousand words so here you go. FTSE-100 in Google's 5-year chart:

Your claim that the £ has depreciated 15% over 5 years is total nonsense, 5 years ago it was at an almost identical level to the Euro to today.
Look back since 2008 to 4th December. (Euro chosen as this is the BREXIT thread & Europe uses the EURO)

2008 1.16
2009 1.10
2010 1.18
2011 1.19
2012 1.23
2013 1.19
2014 1.26
2015 1.38
2016 1.18

What amazes me is how close the the currencies have been except the strength in 2015. There is very little justification to raise prices based on exchange rate.

Oh & the downward spiral on your graph started Early 2015, when Britain was expected to stay in the EU, so nothing to do with the vote, it was actually due to the high value of the £ at the time.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Plus, if the UK is "taking control of our borders", we don't yet know what the entry requirements will be. If there's going to be a quota system, I do wonder if the UK will have the 90 day no permit system that Switzerland has. We don't want to go the way of Russia which is expensive and time consuming, but until an outline is given, business managers won't know.

The question for UK companies selling services to the EU is how easy will the EU business visa process be!

	Quote:
	Non-European citizens willing to travel on business in the Schengen Area are bound to apply for a short-term Schengen visa under “business” specification. Requirements (Sample of three from 15) Current bank statements A letter from ones employer meticulously describing the purpose of the travel as well as the itinerary of the days spend within the Schengen zone. The invitation letter from the partner company in the Schengen zone, faxed also to the corresponding consulate. This letter has to appear as an invitation to attend meetings or other relevant events matching trade, industry or work.

For Switzerland

	Quote:
	Notification procedure for short-term work in Switzerland The Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons (AFMP) between Switzerland and the EU is aimed at liberalising the cross-border provision of services (posted workers or self-employed service providers) for up to 90 effective working days per calendar year.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	The question for UK companies selling services to the EU is how easy will the EU business visa process be! For Switzerland

Then you get the Russian system where they have to produce the letter of invitation, confirmed hotel reservation, and in some cases, authorisation from the equivalent Russian Department of Trade & Industry. Then we need to know if the UK will impose options of single, double or multi entry Business visas. We also now have terror lists that flag up any airline passenger or visa applicant with the same name as a terror suspect. We had a client who couldn't get into the US for 2yrs because he had the same name and DOB as someone on the US terror list, and also a client who was repeatedly 'refered' in his visa application because of his grandparents' nationality.

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Oh & the downward spiral on your graph started Early 2015, when Britain was expected to stay in the EU, so nothing to do with the vote, it was actually due to the high value of the £ at the time.

So it's a fairly reasonable assumption that the recovery since is equally due to the low value of the pound?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	So it's a fairly reasonable assumption that the recovery since is equally due to the low value of the pound?

Exactly, due to a low £ profits will be higher which is good for business's. So pleased that someone has realised this very point.
A strong £ was bad for business, the low £ is a direct result of BREXIT. Every nation wants to devalue their currency, Britain has succeeded & will profit.

[Blueangel]

Britain has succeeded thanks to huge quantitative easing, all of which will have to be paid back.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Britain has succeeded thanks to huge quantitative easing, all of which will have to be paid back.

For 9 years, thats true, I don't think there is any possibility to pay it back unless we inflate it away. It would have been cheaper not to save the Banks.

[Blueangel]

Should have gone food shopping. Too engrossed in Lord Pannick's presentation.

[marton]

From tragedy to farce

	Quote:
	The British government has accepted the opposition Labour Party's call for it to set out its plan for leaving the European Union before formal talks begin, but has asked parliament to respect its Brexit timetable.

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Exactly, due to a low £ profits will be higher which is good for business's. So pleased that someone has realised this very point. A strong £ was bad for business, the low £ is a direct result of BREXIT. Every nation wants to devalue their currency, Britain has succeeded & will profit.

Except that if memory servers me correctly exports actually fell after the decline of sterling and with Mr. Trump about to start a trade war, I would not be at all sure how it will turn out for all of us.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The question for UK companies selling services to the EU is how easy will the EU business visa process be!

Except the UK professional qualifications will no longer be recognised....

There is a reason why UK solicitors, barristers and accountant are applying for Irish recognition before the exit happens.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Except the UK professional qualifications will no longer be recognised.... There is a reason why UK solicitors, barristers and accountant are applying for Irish recognition before the exit happens.

Since UK Solicitors & Barristers can only practice in England & Wales why would they bother? They can't even work in Scotland...... Rather like Zurich qualified lawyers can work in ZH & not in London.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Since UK Solicitors & Barristers can only practice in England & Wales why would they bother? They can't even work in Scotland...... Rather like Zurich qualified lawyers can work in ZH & not in London.

Because they do have certain rights of audience etc.. within the EU, signing of various reports etc.... that are required in the EU. The number of applicants from the UK to the Irish Law Society are up 3 fold apparently.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Since UK Solicitors & Barristers can only practice in England & Wales why would they bother? They can't even work in Scotland...... Rather like Zurich qualified lawyers can work in ZH & not in London.

If you are a lawyer who holds a qualification from outside of the Republic of Ireland and you would like to practise in the Republic of Ireland jurisdiction;
Unless the Society otherwise determines, solicitors whose first place of qualification is England and Wales, or Northern Ireland, are not obliged to pass any subject in the Qualified Lawyers Transfer Test (QLTT). However, you need to apply for a Certificate of Admission.

(The Qualified Lawyers Transfer Test (QLTT) is a conversion test which enables lawyers qualified in certain countries outside the Republic of Ireland, to qualify as solicitors in this jurisdiction.)

Source

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	If you are a lawyer who holds a qualification from outside of the Republic of Ireland and you would like to practise in the Republic of Ireland jurisdiction; Unless the Society otherwise determines, solicitors whose first place of qualification is England and Wales, or Northern Ireland, are not obliged to pass any subject in the Qualified Lawyers Transfer Test (QLTT). However, you need to apply for a Certificate of Admission. (The Qualified Lawyers Transfer Test (QLTT) is a conversion test which enables lawyers qualified in certain countries outside the Republic of Ireland, to qualify as solicitors in this jurisdiction.) Source

And for barristers

	Quote:
	QUALIFIED LAWYERS FROM OTHER EU MEMBER STATES A person who is entitled to seek to practise the profession of barrister in Ireland pursuant to Directive 2005/36 of the European Parliament and Council on the recognition of professional qualifications (OJ L 255 p. 22)(’the Directive’) and the regulations implementing same in Ireland (hereinafter called ‘the migrant’) may apply to be admitted to the Society and to the degree of Barrister–at–Law in accordance with this rule.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	FMF
	Your claim that the £ has depreciated 15% over 5 years is total nonsense

Once again, I'm taking the 2-year perspective you claim the market is looking forward. And there's more than just one currency pair.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Once again, I'm taking the 2-year perspective you claim the market is looking forward. And there's more than just one currency pair.

The graph you showed was a 5 year graph, where you made the claim I responded to.