The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	He was due to leave next November so it would have been sensible to ask him to stay on for a year or so until UK has finally left the EU. Rumours have been swirling around for a while that May and the Brexit team have been ignoring his advice; describing it as negative and pessimistic.

Sounds like he was sacked, but chose to resign so it looks better on his CV.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Sounds like he was sacked, but chose to resign so it looks better on his CV.

Whatever, it will be hard to find a good replacement who has the right sort of EU contacts to have those useful informal "corridor" contacts.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Sounds like he was sacked, but chose to resign so it looks better on his CV.

What makes it sound like that?

Reading through a few articles on this, and few seem to suggest he was sacked (just the Daily Mail, even the Telegraph doesn't) only that he doesn't want to be involved in the negotiations and is leaving early to allow a successor to get in - in reality there's no evidence either way. We can say that it is unfortunate for the UK that someone with his experience won't be involved in negotiations next year (most if not all sources seem to agree on this), but beyond that, why he's left is entirely speculative.

On a lighter note, it appears that Farage has said that 'a lot more' diplomats should follow Rogers and resign'. I expect he was specifically hoping the British ambassador to Washington DC might do so and leave an opening...

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	What makes it sound like that? Reading through a few articles on this, and few seem to suggest he was sacked (just the Daily Mail, even the Telegraph doesn't) only that he doesn't want to be involved in the negotiations and is leaving early to allow a successor to get in - in reality there's no evidence either way. We can say that it is unfortunate for the UK that someone with his experience won't be involved in negotiations next year (most if not all sources seem to agree on this), but beyond that, why he's left is entirely speculative. On a lighter note, it appears that Farage has said that 'a lot more' diplomats should follow Rogers and resign'. I expect he was specifically hoping the British ambassador to Washington DC might do so and leave an opening...

If Mrs May is not taking his advise & think he is negative & pessimistic, clearly he is not wanted or needed.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	If Mrs May is not taking his advise & think he is negative & pessimistic, clearly he is not wanted or needed.

So you expect she sacks everyone who disagrees with her in private? Hardly bodes well for the future, in that case. Anyone other than the Daily Mail conclude this?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	So you expect she sacks everyone who disagrees with her in private? Hardly bodes well for the future, in that case. Anyone other than the Daily Mail conclude this?

You need people who want to get the best, his attitude is unacceptable & he had to go.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You need people who want to get the best, his attitude is unacceptable & he had to go.

Time for this cartoon again!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You need people who want to get the best, his attitude is unacceptable & he had to go.

The best boss (director) I ever had, strongly disagreed with a 'top of the tree' decision. He stayed on to make sure the process went as smoothly as possible for the sake of teams he'd been in charge of for approx. 27yrs, then resigned. He couldn't stomach sitting at the top table again afterwards.

When anyone has spent years building harmonious relationships with their colleagues, it's incredibly difficult to stomach a decree from 'new management at the top' to suddenly play hardball. You can't switch from a spoonful of sugar to a bucket full of arsenic and keep your integrity intact, and there's a little thing called self-respect that would make me consider my course of action. I've done the same in the past, but on a far smaller scale.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	On a lighter note, it appears that Farage has said that 'a lot more' diplomats should follow Rogers and resign'. I expect he was specifically hoping the British ambassador to Washington DC might do so and leave an opening...

I have a deal with my OH that, if I should ever happen across a certain lil Nige, I have free rein to give him a damned good slapping even if it means doing time, and OH will wait for me.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The best boss (director) I ever had, strongly disagreed with a 'top of the tree' decision. He stayed on to make sure the process went as smoothly as possible for the sake of teams he'd been in charge of for approx. 27yrs, then resigned. He couldn't stomach sitting at the top table again afterwards. When anyone has spent years building harmonious relationships with their colleagues, it's incredibly difficult to stomach a decree from 'new management at the top' to suddenly play hardball. You can't switch from a spoonful of sugar to a bucket full of arsenic and keep your integrity intact, and there's a little thing called self-respect that would make me consider my course of action. I've done the same in the past, but on a far smaller scale.

This is business, we buy more from the EU than we sell so hold the trump card. We are looking to get the best possible deal. No deal at all is far better than a bad deal so we don't need any 'teflon' negotiators. The EU will likely be toast before very long if you look objectively at its problems.

[SOBEIT]

Probably getting paid too much and achieving very little, hardly surprising.

[Castro]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You need people who want to get the best, his attitude is unacceptable & he had to go.

Its the sign of a healthy democracy to have a civil service that is not afraid to give politicians the unvarnished truth; In this case that it could take upto a decade to untangle ourselves from the EU... It took Greenland 7 years to leave the EEC and they only had to worry about Fish!

There really does seem to be this ideological fervour amongst Brexiteers and the pro Brexit media, paranoid about being cheated out of their precious victory. As a result they're attacking judges, experts, business leaders, civil servants and anyone else brazen enough to tell them what they don't want to hear.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	If Mrs May is not taking his advise & think he is negative & pessimistic, clearly he is not wanted or needed.

If she only wants yes people, then you end up accepting this kind of tosh:

Post-Brexit trade deals 'to create 400,000 jobs'

So where did the figure come from??? Well when you break it down it turns out it's the same figure projected from the new EU deals, assuming that the UK can manager to negotiate the same deals on the same basis.

	Quote:
	Change Britain said the UK's share of these jobs would be 2,503 - which it reached by dividing the 16,700 figure by 14.99%, the UK's proportion of non-EU exports in 2015. It then multiplied this by the estimated boost to exports to the EU as a whole of trade deals with the US (73,610 jobs), India (29,043), China (3,505), Korea (63,094), Japan (63,094), Canada (36,555), Mercosur (34,301) and Asean (84,376) to arrive at the 387,580 figure.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You need people who want to get the best, his attitude is unacceptable & he had to go.

So you sacked him then? All you're offering in defense of your claim is your own opinion, after all. He may have been sacked, but at present we have no evidence of it.

Or have you been projecting your personal opinion as fact here all along? Again.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So where did the figure come from???

Same place as the money for the NHS.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	This is business, we buy more from the EU than we sell so hold the trump card. We are looking to get the best possible deal. No deal at all is far better than a bad deal so we don't need any 'teflon' negotiators. The EU will likely be toast before very long if you look objectively at its problems.

But we will not do a deal with "the EU"?
We will have to do a deal with 27 countries and even more Parliaments; many of these export little to the UK other than sending their people to work in the UK under the FMOP rules.

Not much point in having a trump card when most of the players are following a different set of rules.

Anyway with such a weak £ then import prices will soon start to rise with consequent effect on volumes from the EU?

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The EU will likely be toast before very long if you look objectively at its problems.

Just saw this. I've last count how many times I've heard this prophesy, often repeated every few months by the same people, only to see it be forgotten.

Might take a week or 500 years but I suppose you'll be right some day. Until then, I prefer to think of you as the political equivalent of Harold Camping.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	But we will not do a deal with "the EU"? We will have to do a deal with 27 countries and even more Parliaments; many of these export little to the UK other than sending their people to work in the UK under the FMOP rules. Not much point in having a trump card when most of the players are following a different set of rules. Anyway with such a weak £ then import prices will soon start to rise with consequent effect on volumes from the EU?

We may do a deal with the EU, it's not that much of a deal. TBH, life will go on & the UK can get cheaper food from outside the EU & the EU will stockpile unsold food as they always have done in the past.
The prices in £ will stay pretty much the same, if you will recall prices did not fall over the previous 3 years due to the stronger £.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Just saw this. I've last count how many times I've heard this prophesy, often repeated every few months by the same people, only to see it be forgotten. Might take a week or 500 years but I suppose you'll be right some day. Until then, I prefer to think of you as the political equivalent of Harold Camping.

I would give it 5 years, so within 3 years of the UK leaving. Thats being quite generous as the Banks will likely implode before that. I see there is a delay in implementing BASEL III, this should have happened on 1st January 2017.

[marton]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	So you sacked him then? All you're offering in defense of your claim is your own opinion, after all. He may have been sacked, but at present we have no evidence of it. Or have you been projecting your personal opinion as fact here all along? Again. Same place as the money for the NHS.

For me the terribly sad part of this whole business is demonstrated by the contrasting comments from various sources about his resignation.

It is now brought into the open that there is a huge split in British society that is ever widening and more hostile!
I do not believe that "All the king's horses and all the king's men" will be able to put it together again, regardless if we finish up actually implementing Brexit or not

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	We may do a deal with the EU, it's not that much of a deal. TBH, life will go on & the UK can get cheaper food from outside the EU & the EU will stockpile unsold food as they always have done in the past. The prices in £ will stay pretty much the same, if you will recall prices did not fall over the previous 3 years due to the stronger £. I would give it 5 years, so within 3 years of the UK leaving. Thats being quite generous as the Banks will likely implode before that. I see there is a delay in implementing BASEL III, this should have happened on 1st January 2017.

"the UK can get cheaper food from outside the EU " not if the UK goes for the WTO trade model using the EU definitions which have high tariffs on imported food.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	"the UK can get cheaper food from outside the EU " not if the UK goes for the WTO trade model using the EU definitions which have high tariffs on imported food.

Who says they will go for WTO tariff model, possibly a global free trade model......
In any case WTO tariffs are far lower on food then EU tariffs which can hit 50%