The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Who says they will go for WTO tariff model, possibly a global free trade model...... In any case WTO tariffs are far lower on food then EU tariffs which can hit 50%

You do not understand the WTO tariff structure? The EU tariffs are the tariffs agreed by the EU with all the members of the WTO.

The UK has a couple of possibilities
1. To request the WTO to treat the UK as an ex-EU member and allow the UK to use the existing EU tariffs already agreed with the WTO.
2. to start a new negotiation for different tariffs with the 164 WTO members. The WTO already said they will not start this before the UK has formally agreed to leave the EU.
Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO director-general, said he had no idea how long it would take the UK to negotiate trade deals afresh in the aftermath of a leave vote.

“It is very difficult to predict. Russia’s accession to the WTO took 20 years. Other negotiations happened faster. It will be a very high risk bet to hope that negotiations would be quickly completed and that negotiations would be uneventful,” he said.

One of the leading figures on the leave side, Prof Patrick Minford, has said Britain could avoid protracted negotiations by adopting a free trade approach.
Azevêdo said this would be an all-or-nothing approach: “If you are a duty-free country, you can’t be selectively duty-free. If you want to go duty-free, you have to go duty-free across the board.
There can be no tariffs on anything, so no protection for local production like agriculture, steel, autos &&&.”

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	You do not understand the WTO tariff structure? The EU tariffs are the tariffs agreed by the EU with all the members of the WTO. The UK has a couple of possibilities 1. To request the WTO to treat the UK as an ex-EU member and allow the UK to use the existing EU tariffs already agreed with the WTO. 2. to start a new negotiation for different tariffs with the 164 WTO members. The WTO already said they will not start this before the UK has formally agreed to leave the EU. Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO director-general, said he had no idea how long it would take the UK to negotiate trade deals afresh in the aftermath of a leave vote. “It is very difficult to predict. Russia’s accession to the WTO took 20 years. Other negotiations happened faster. It will be a very high risk bet to hope that negotiations would be quickly completed and that negotiations would be uneventful,” he said. One of the leading figures on the leave side, Prof Patrick Minford, has said Britain could avoid protracted negotiations by adopting a free trade approach. Azevêdo said this would be an all-or-nothing approach: “If you are a duty-free country, you can’t be selectively duty-free. If you want to go duty-free, you have to go duty-free across the board. There can be no tariffs on anything, so no protection for local production like agriculture, steel, autos &&&.”

I would go with 100% duty free, like Hong Kong.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I would go with 100% duty free, like Hong Kong.

Fine, then the UK will have to cut salaries to HK levels to avoid UK production being wiped out

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Fine, then the UK will have to cut salaries to HK levels to avoid UK production being wiped out

As there is no income tax in HK, average salaries not that different after deductions.
I was offered twice my UK salary to work in HK in 1994, however got a better offer from a Swiss company. As I like skiing it was an easy choice.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Who says they will go for WTO tariff model, possibly a global free trade model...... In any case WTO tariffs are far lower on food then EU tariffs which can hit 50%

Well it would appear that the UK government does since it has begun to prepare it's membership application for the WTO:

Very quietly, Liam Fox admits the Brexit lie

	Quote:
	In order to minimise disruption to global trade as we leave the EU, over the coming period the government will prepare the necessary draft schedules which replicate as far as possible our current obligations.

As for a global free trade model, how would that work: The UK lifts all tariffs and accepts that to do business with the WTO members is must accept maximum tariffs in return.... It accepts current WTO rules and begins a negotiation process with the WTO which could take decades.... The UK decides to ignore the WTO and trade with the 12 member nations... what?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well it would appear that the UK government does since it has begun to prepare it's membership application for the WTO: Very quietly, Liam Fox admits the Brexit lie As for a global free trade model, how would that work: The UK lifts all tariffs and accepts that to do business with the WTO members is must accept maximum tariffs in return.... It accepts current WTO rules and begins a negotiation process with the WTO which could take decades.... The UK decides to ignore the WTO and trade with the 12 member nations... what?

Brittian will still be in the EEA unless the give the required 12 months notice........

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Castro
	Its the sign of a healthy democracy to have a civil service that is not afraid to give politicians the unvarnished truth; In this case that it could take upto a decade to untangle ourselves from the EU... It took Greenland 7 years to leave the EEC and they only had to worry about Fish!

A hundred years later and there is still clean up legislation going through the UK and Irish parliaments on a nod every so often... and Ireland's share of the join national debt was only finalised about 20 yeas ago when the last war widow died....

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	As there is no income tax in HK, average salaries not that different after deductions. I was offered twice my UK salary to work in HK in 1994, however got a better offer from a Swiss company. As I like skiing it was an easy choice.

Ah, those were the days!

Salaries tax is a type of income tax that is levied in Hong Kong, chargeable on income from any office, employment and pension for a year of assessment arising in or derived from the territory.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Brittian will still be in the EEA unless the give the required 12 months notice........

Go read what article 50 actually says, then read the membership rules for EFTA and finally figure out the UK can be a party to the treaty of the EEA without being a member of either EFTA or the EU. In particular note the that 50(3) states that the treaties cease to apply, not this treat or a treat - all treaties.

	Quote:
	3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

In other words stop listening to the lies being peddled but Liam Fox and his friends. And the 12 notice period stuff is being taken out of context, no surprise there, it relates primarily to EFTA members who wish to exit the EEA not EU members.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Go read what article 50 actually says, then read the membership rules for EFTA and finally figure out the UK can be a party to the treaty of the EEA without being a member of either EFTA or the EU. In particular note the that 50(3) states that the treaties cease to apply, not this treat or a treat - all treaties. In other words stop listening to the lies being peddled but Liam Fox and his friends. And the 12 notice period stuff is being taken out of context, no surprise there, it relates primarily to EFTA members who wish to exit the EEA not EU members.

So why does the EEA require 12 months notice to leave then?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	This is business, we buy more from the EU than we sell so hold the trump card.

This is politics. It's far more than just business.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	So why does the EEA require 12 months notice to leave then?

Well if you took the time to read the material you'd know that... On the other had if you want to take Liam Fox etc at their word without fact checking that is your choice!

And the EEA requires no notice from the U.K. again refer to article 50(3) as to why.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I would give it 5 years, so within 3 years of the UK leaving. Thats being quite generous as the Banks will likely implode before that. I see there is a delay in implementing BASEL III, this should have happened on 1st January 2017.

At least this time you were open about the fact that you're giving only your opinion. And you're entitled to your opinion, but not to state your opinion implying it is fact - such as your claim that Sir Ivan Rogers was sacked, which given latest reports (where the BBC says his resignation was in fact a surprise to Downing Street), has seemingly turned out to be false.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	This is business, we buy more from the EU than we sell so hold the trump card. We are looking to get the best possible deal. No deal at all is far better than a bad deal so we don't need any 'teflon' negotiators. The EU will likely be toast before very long if you look objectively at its problems.

Except - as has been pointed out multiple times before - UK exports to the EU represent 47% of UK exports. EU exports to the UK represent 13% of EU exports.

So who is most vulnerable?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	As there is no income tax in HK, average salaries not that different after deductions. I was offered twice my UK salary to work in HK in 1994, however got a better offer from a Swiss company. As I like skiing it was an easy choice.

Rubbish. Tax is lower maybe but still up to 17%. Plus you have to fund a fair few things yourself that are covered by taxation elsewhere.

Median salary is around CHF 19,000 pa.

In any event irrelevant. UK salaries would have to drop to Chinese levels to be competitive in a fully free trade environment.

Edit - sorry Marton - already hit the reply button before I saw you had answered the tax point

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well it would appear that the UK government does since it has begun to prepare it's membership application for the WTO: Very quietly, Liam Fox admits the Brexit lie

People should take note that Liam mentions obligations only, he doesn't mention benefits at all. Why am I reminded of Switzerland's "autonomer Nachvollzug", just without the certainty of UK reaping the benefits?

If the UK is lucky the other WTO members will simply nod their heads but that's unlikely to happen due to small (cough) issues such as Gibraltar (Spain, read EU), the Falklands, and probably a plethora of other issues I'm not aware of.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	People should take note that Liam mentions obligations only, he doesn't mention benefits at all. Why am I reminded of Switzerland's "autonomer Nachvollzug", just without the certainty of UK reaping the benefits? If the UK is lucky the other WTO members will simply nod their heads but that's unlikely to happen due to small (cough) issues such as Gibraltar (Spain, read EU), the Falklands, and probably a plethora of other issues I'm not aware of.

Right so what are the benefits exactly of jumping through hoops only to end up back in the same position at best???

Assuming that they do get full WTO membership their obligations and benefits will be the same as they are today but without access to the single market. Any other trade agreements they make will be subject to the exact same restrictions as they are now and to the same approval process.

And it now seems that any agreement will require automatic admittance to the EU for Northern Ireland in the event of the reunification clause in the Good Friday Agreement.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	Except - as has been pointed out multiple times before - UK exports to the EU represent 47% of UK exports. EU exports to the UK represent 13% of EU exports.

Some people do not let facts interfere with their opinions

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Right so what are the benefits exactly of jumping through hoops only to end up back in the same position at best??? Assuming that they do get full WTO membership their obligations and benefits will be the same as they are today but without access to the single market. Any other trade agreements they make will be subject to the exact same restrictions as they are now and to the same approval process. And it now seems that any agreement will require automatic admittance to the EU for Northern Ireland in the event of the reunification clause in the Good Friday Agreement.

Interesting link about N. Ireland.
I wonder if Scotland could claim their membership of "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland" that was created in 1801 would also qualify them to reunify with Ireland and join the EU!

The UK Govt. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs did an analysis in May of the increase in food import costs if the UK adopted EU/WTO tariffs on imports AND bought food from the cheapest worldwide sources.
That came up with an average cost increase of 9%.
Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Interesting link about N. Ireland. I wonder if Scotland could claim their membership of "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland" that was created in 1801 would also qualify them to reunify with Ireland and join the EU! The UK Govt. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs did an analysis in May of the increase in food import costs if the UK adopted EU/WTO tariffs on imports AND bought food from the cheapest worldwide sources. That came up with an average cost increase of 9%. Source

The problem with this analysis is that it ignores the impact on the U.K. agriculture industry and the additional cost to the taxpayers of any additional support that would need to be provided. Of course such support would fall faul of WTO rules which need to be addressed.