The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Austria to ask EU for right to hire locals ahead of other EU workers

The EU in its present form is toast.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The EU in its present form is toast.

In its present form? That's quite a climb-down from collapse.

Now that you're back, fancy explaining how the CAP made farmers all terribly rich? Without repeating explanations that have already been debunked, of course. You ducked out of that discussion earlier.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	In its present form? That's quite a climb-down from collapse. Now that you're back, fancy explaining how the CAP made farmers all terribly rich? Without repeating explanations that have already been debunked, of course. You ducked out of that discussion earlier.

I don't think so, the result will be a collapse, it could be averted but they are too stupid for common sense to prevailing.

If you can't work it out & your probably too young to remember farmers in the 1960's I won't bother.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't think so, the result will be a collapse, it could be averted but they are too stupid for common sense to prevailing.

Another opinion backed up by nothing.

	Quote:
	If you can't work it out & your probably too young to remember farmers in the 1960's I won't bother.

And if I wasn't this would magically prove everything you claimed? Sorry, but you're still using conman's logic to argue your case. Shall we simply conclude you gave an opinion and when challenged realised you couldn't actually defend it?

[marton]

	Quote:
	From the Guardian today: A new £1,000-a-year immigration skills levy is expected to be introduced on all firms for each skilled migrant they recruit from outside Europe, under a new crackdown ordered by the home secretary, Theresa May. ............ https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ants-1000-levy

Not sure why the Govt. wants to target non-EU immigrants; I thought the idea was to control all immigrants?

Anyway

	Quote:
	DESPERATE' NHS 'offers EU doctors from Lithuania and Poland £90,000 to work in Britain'

Source

Hope NHS works quickly while there is still FMOP

Would be comi-tragic if these GPs were sent home again after Brexit?

[amogles]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't think so, the result will be a collapse, it could be averted but they are too stupid for common sense to prevailing. If you can't work it out & your probably too young to remember farmers in the 1960's I won't bother.

Collapse is maybe a question of semantics.

But the odds that the EU in 10 or even 5 years time will be a significantly different beast from what it is today are very high.

Some in remain camp seem to be selling the narrative that if the brexit doesn't happen, all things will stay more or less as they are.

In fact a yes or no to brexit is a choice between two different unknowns, not a choice between no change and change.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	amogles
	Collapse is maybe a question of semantics.

Speculation, not semantics. It's a tad difficult to use a word like collapse and interpret it as anything less than destruction or ending, and in this regard any prediction of the EU's ending is still speculation, and propaganda, at this stage.

	Quote:
	Some in remain camp seem to be selling the narrative that if the brexit doesn't happen, all things will stay more or less as they are.

One would have to be deluded to believe that. The vote for Brexit saw to that. That's not to say you're wrong, only that those in the remain camp that do believe that would have to be deluded to do so.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Speculation, not semantics. It's a tad difficult to use a word like collapse and interpret it as anything less than destruction or ending, and in this regard any prediction of the EU's ending is still speculation, and propaganda, at this stage.

The word collapse has acquired an inflationary meaning. We are told the pound collapsed after brexit. We were even told that the FPÖ losing the recent Austrian presidential election was a collapse of the far right in Europe. We are told that in the US, the Democratic party self destructed after Trump's victory.

Against this setting, what is a collapse of the EU? Maybe it has already happened?

	Quote:	Aeneas
	One would have to be deluded to believe that. The vote for Brexit saw to that. That's not to say you're wrong, only that those in the remain camp that do believe that would have to be deluded to do so.

There was a lot of delusion in the Brexit campaign. On both sides. People are frustrated not so much because they don't like the result but because they feel it came about for all the wrong reasons. Basically there was a major breakdown in the public's ability to hold an ordered and rational debate. On both sides.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	amogles
	The word collapse has acquired an inflationary meaning.

If so, should we not be using that definition?

Collapse = Deflation, surely!

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	The word collapse has acquired an inflationary meaning. We are told the pound collapsed after brexit. We were even told that the FPÖ losing the recent Austrian presidential election was a collapse of the far right in Europe. We are told that in the US, the Democratic party self destructed after Trump's victory. Against this setting, what is a collapse of the EU? Maybe it has already happened? There was a lot of delusion in the Brexit campaign. On both sides. People are frustrated not so much because they don't like the result but because they feel it came about for all the wrong reasons. Basically there was a major breakdown in the public's ability to hold an ordered and rational debate. On both sides.

I believe people are frustrated because it is taking so long and it is not transparent what Brexit will be!

[Aeneas]

	Quote:
	Collapse = Deflation, surely!

This is more likely to come to mind, methinks...

How does this work?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	This is more likely to come to mind, methinks... How does this work?

Definitely not inflation

[amogles]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	This is more likely to come to mind, methinks... How does this work?

- it's parts re-arranged to form a flatter hierarchy?
- re-arranged in a more stable configuration?
- re-arranged to reduce ability to contain hot air?

[Medea Fleecestealer]

So much for having to wait for a trade deal with the US.

"The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said.

In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out".

Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days' time."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38631832

Of course, as usual, he hasn't quite got his facts straight.

"Mr Trump added: "Countries want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity, but I do think if they hadn't been forced to take in all of the refugees than you wouldn't have a Brexit."

But then he never let's facts get in the way of a good news headline now, does he.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	So much for having to wait for a trade deal with the US. "The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said. In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out". Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days' time." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38631832 Of course, as usual, he hasn't quite got his facts straight. "Mr Trump added: "Countries want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity, but I do think if they hadn't been forced to take in all of the refugees than you wouldn't have a Brexit." But then he never let's facts get in the way of a good news headline now, does he.

Its a positive sign though, which is good for the UK. Along with the Brexit negotiator from the EU saying during the week there would need to be "some sort of arrangement" between the EU and the UK financial services industry, its a couple of positive signs. Of course there will always be people who want it to fail both in the EU and of course there are many thousands of then in England itself, but we are where we are so if we can make a good run of it who's to say it might not work out well for us.

I think the biggest bit of controversy this week is Phillip Hammond basically putting the threat on the table: if the EU deliberately set out to harm the UK as an example to to others economically, then the UK will alter its tax arrangements to become more attractive to work in (translated: a tax haven).

That is going to be an interesting fight.

The only reason Trump is happy about this, is that he can squeeze GB for a massively US-favourable trade deal now. A daft wee island of 60m desperate for some quick wins has no negotiating power against the US behemoth.

Europe is also an economy and 60m people lighter, so for Trump / US, Brexit is win-win.

	Quote:
	The only reason Trump is happy about this, is that he can squeeze GB for a massively US-favourable trade deal now. A daft wee island of 60m desperate for some quick wins has no negotiating power against the US behemoth. Europe is also an economy and 60m people lighter, so for Trump / US, Brexit is win-win.

I think there's more to it than that, remember Trump's also going to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Bilaterals are the way forward.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think the biggest bit of controversy this week is Phillip Hammond basically putting the threat on the table: if the EU deliberately set out to harm the UK as an example to to others economically, then the UK will alter its tax arrangements to become more attractive to work in (translated: a tax haven). That is going to be an interesting fight.

The UK is already a tax haven, social costs on work are low, so nothing new there. There is no reason not to have tax competition between countries. What is strange is tax completion is rife in the Euro zone, where interest rates are fixed centrally.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I think there's more to it than that, remember Trump's also going to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Bilaterals are the way forward.

That's as maybe, but as all the Trump supporters on here often regurgitate, he's a master of negotiation. I don't think Govey or Theresa are. I can't imagine this ending well for the UK, although they will of course hail it as a victory when it happens.