The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	The only reason Trump is happy about this, is that he can squeeze GB for a massively US-favourable trade deal now. A daft wee island of 60m desperate for some quick wins has no negotiating power against the US behemoth.

You've hit the nail on the head.

The Trump cabinet is specifically made up of people that he believes are the best deal makers for America. The UK, by comparison, is well known to be ridiculously short of trained negotiators for Brexit, relies on them being taken from the Civil Service (who can't negotiate their way out of a paper bag), and up against Trump et al, the UK is screwed. Welcome to 4+yrs of being Trump's whiny little biatch.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I think there's more to it than that, remember Trump's also going to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Bilaterals are the way forward.

More to what exactly? Ther UK's going to be a nasty little piece jumping out of bed with Europe and into bed with Trump.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The UK is already a tax haven, social costs on work are low, so nothing new there.

What???

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I think there's more to it than that, remember Trump's also going to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Bilaterals are the way forward.

Of course you would! Make no mistake about it Turmp's priorities are: himself, his businesses, his family and possibly his country although that remains to be seen.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Its a positive sign though, which is good for the UK. Along with the Brexit negotiator from the EU saying during the week there would need to be "some sort of arrangement" between the EU and the UK financial services industry, its a couple of positive signs. Of course there will always be people who want it to fail both in the EU and of course there are many thousands of then in England itself, but we are where we are so if we can make a good run of it who's to say it might not work out well for us. I think the biggest bit of controversy this week is Phillip Hammond basically putting the threat on the table: if the EU deliberately set out to harm the UK as an example to to others economically, then the UK will alter its tax arrangements to become more attractive to work in (translated: a tax haven). That is going to be an interesting fight.

So as Ireland and Luxembourg already are today then.


Life is going to be "interesting" for all the JAMs that voted for Brexit if this happens. Taking away half or more of the corporate tax receipts will mean more-or-less dismanteling much of what is left of the social security system and NHS in the UK (something I believe Hammond already has hinted at).

	Quote:
	That's as maybe, but as all the Trump supporters on here often regurgitate, he's a master of negotiation. I don't think Govey or Theresa are. I can't imagine this ending well for the UK, although they will of course hail it as a victory when it happens.

Of course the US will come away with the lion's share. They have the largest economy in the world and more bargaining power, I wouldn't expect them to give the UK anything for free. But likewise the UK is also still a major player on the world stage so will have more success making deals with other countries.

[baboon]

	Quote:
	That's as maybe, but as all the Trump supporters on here often regurgitate, he's a master of negotiation.

Here I disagree. Trump is not a negotiator, he's a simple bully. And as President he's going to be even more a bully than ever. His negotiating is going to be more like "This is what I want. Take it or get nuked".

[Urs Max]

An interesting article speculating on what May may reveal tomorrow.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The Trump cabinet is specifically made up of people that he believes are the best deal makers for America. The UK, by comparison, is well known to be ridiculously short of trained negotiators for Brexit, relies on them being taken from the Civil Service (who can't negotiate their way out of a paper bag), and up against Trump et al, the UK is screwed. Welcome to 4+yrs of being Trump's whiny little biatch.

There just isnt any good outcome for the Remain camp is there ? The Obama "back of the queue" line has been played like a broken record here on EF over this debate as one of those defining "you've stuffed it now" pieces of evidence.

Now we have someone who wants a trade agreement but - nope, wrong again - this is full on Bad News and make no mistake. the UK will be slaughtered at the negotiating table, we'll be paying them hand over fist because of x,y, z. What happens if we get a decent deal ? what then ? will it be the wrong kind of paper its being written on so the UK is stuffed ? maybe the weather could be used as a good example of why we should have stayed in Europe.

I mean come on, there are good signs ahead, why do you have to take the Worst Possible Scenario every single time ?

	Quote:	baboon
	Here I disagree. Trump is not a negoriator, he's a simple bully. And as President he's going to be even more a bully than ever. His negotiating is going to be more like "This is what I want. Take it or get nuked".

He's gotten Lockheed Martin to drop the price of the Joint Strike Fighter before even taking office. Based on his performance so far, I'd say he's a pretty good negotiator.

The message here is that the US has the UK's back. You can thank Farage for this.

The UK has a strong hand against the EU. They're slowly coming to the realisation that the EU has more to lose than the UK. The EU also admitted they need access to London.

The EU wall is cracking. It's the EU that is beginning to feel the squeeze. Do you not smell blood? I wouldn't settle for hardline EU terms. Playing this for a little more time is in the UK's favor.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Phos
	The message here is that the US has the UK's back. You can thank Farage for this.

Heh. This is the same US who's president elect today said "Mrs Merkel was by far Europe's most important leader"? Yes, Mrs Merkel, not Mrs May.

	Quote:
	The UK has a strong hand against the EU. They're slowly coming to the realisation that the EU has more to lose than the UK.

Because you say so?

	Quote:
	The EU also admitted they need access to London.

Source?

	Quote:
	The EU wall is cracking. It's the EU that is beginning to feel the squeeze. Do you not smell blood? I wouldn't settle for hardline EU terms. Playing this for a little more time is in the UK's favor.

Can I have some of what you're smoking?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Heh. This is the same US who's president elect today said "Mrs Merkel was by far Europe's most important leader"? Yes, Mrs Merkel, not Mrs May.

Awful comparison. Merkel's been Kanzlerin for twelve years vs six months for May.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Wrong comparison. Merkel's been Kanzlerin for twelve years vs six months for May.

And the people voted for Merkel.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Wrong comparison. Merkel's been Kanzlerin for twelve years vs six months for May.

How does that make it a wrong comparison? Regardless of how long Merkel has been in power, Trump considers her a higher priority to May - Germany is of greater importance to him than the UK, which hardly supports Phos's 'message'.

As for his other ridiculous claims, those are just the same-old opinions stated as fact that are never argued, let alone supported with evidence, by his ilk.

He called out what Merkel did as a "Disaster". We have compatibility issues with the germans.

May sent a Christmas card to Trump along with a copy of the letter Churchil's letter to the US after Pearl Harbor. The bust of Churchill is also headed back to the White House. A meeting with May is one of Trump's first to do items, before Merkel.

There are many things that Trump will have a prerogative to do, without having to argue and debate with people. This is especially true in terms of trade.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Heh. This is the same US who's president elect today said "Mrs Merkel was by far Europe's most important leader"? Yes, Mrs Merkel, not Mrs May.

Merkel is Europe's most important leader.

	Quote:
	And the people voted for Merkel.

A greater proportion of voters voted for Trump than for Merkel.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Phos
	He called out what Merkel did as a "Disaster". We have compatibility issues with the germans.

And your point?

	Quote:
	May sent a Christmas card to Trump along with a copy of the letter Churchil's letter to the US after Pearl Harbor. The bust of Churchill is also headed back to the White House. A meeting with May is one of Trump's first to do items, before Merkel.

And any of this proves your point how? The UK and US have had a 'special relationship' in place ever since the UK chose to be the 'wise Greeks' after Suez. But that does not mean that the US has their back, indeed the relationship has been largely one way over the years and given geoglobal realities such as the relative importance of Germany over the UK, it is questionable this will change.

But let's say that the US could have the UK's back. What evidence, other a few tokens of affection, is there? Will the US really put themselves on the line to help out the UK negotiate a better trade deal? What makes you so certain, other than wishful thinking?

	Quote:
	There are many things that Trump will have a prerogative to do, without having to argue and debate with people.

Of course, but not without consequence.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Merkel is Europe's most important leader.

Yes, is there a point there or just noise?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	What???

Non Doms. I really can't believe you don't know about this. Google is your friend.. Do you really think foreign billionaires come to the UK for the wether?

I think Trump also wants to make the UK great again as well. I'll let you think about the rest on your own, and simply watch events unfold.

	Quote:	Phos
	I think Trump also wants to make the UK great again as well.

I'll stop you there.

Trump doesn't give two shiny shites about the UK, believing otherwise is wilful ignorance.

I could imagine he'd like to see Aberdeenshire doing well though, so more country club types could frequent his failing carbuncle up there.