The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[MidfieldGeneral]

"debating" with Phos is like wrestling with a pig: the pig loves it and you just get dirty

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Phos
	I think Trump also wants to make the UK great again as well. I'll let you think about the rest on your own, and simply watch events unfold.

Oh, you're trolling. Should have seen that sooner.

[Phos]

Trump, as well as most americans, have an affinity for the UK. Of course most have no idea, and think most of them should look like the Beatles and James Bond.

As the UK splits from the EU, and there appears to be a re-ordering of alliance in the cards, the UK and the EU will likely make a concerted effort to stay together.

No, seriously, the US will likely have the UK's back. Trump already said he will help make Brexit great.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Phos
	No, seriously, the US will likely have the UK's back. Trump already said he will help make Brexit great.

He also said he'd build a wall across the US-Mexican boarder and make Mexico pay for it. Which do you reckon he'll do first?

[Phos]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	He also said he'd build a wall across the US-Mexican boarder and make Mexico pay for it. Which do you reckon he'll do first?

You're triggered already? :roll eyes: Relax, and watch events unfold.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Phos
	You're triggered already?

No, not bothering to argue with you. Just laughing at you.

[Phos]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	No, not bothering to argue with you. Just laughing at you.

Enjoy yourself, and we'll see who gets the last laugh. I'm seldom wrong about these things.

	Quote:	Phos
	I'm seldom wrong about these things.

To be fair, you cast a wide and unquantifiable net when it comes to your predictions.

Most people are "seldom wrong" if they use your kind of fake language.

"Trump will make Brexit great". Yes, he probably will. For himself and his own interests. He will hold as many cards as he can get his tiny hands around. That kind of "great"?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	The message here is that the US has the UK's back. You can thank Farage for this. The UK has a strong hand against the EU. They're slowly coming to the realisation that the EU has more to lose than the UK. The EU also admitted they need access to London. The EU wall is cracking. It's the EU that is beginning to feel the squeeze. Do you not smell blood? I wouldn't settle for hardline EU terms. Playing this for a little more time is in the UK's favor.

Absolutely.

And 2017 is going to be the year of change. Merkel still lives the illusion she could win another election, but she's pretty much alone there. The CDU could at best become the junior coalition party behind the SPD whose leaders right now are basically a bunch of opportunists. I'd say as far as Germany is concerned, the future is still very much open. But I believe that in the long run, the pragmatists always win in Germany, and that means they will accept and work with Trump rather than opposing him at every turn. But I said in the long run. It may cost some years of agony until that filters through and certain people agree to eat their humble pies. In France the establishment seems to think it would already be a success if they could prevent Marine being elected. Nobody is thinking beyond that right now. So the left are prepared to rally behind Fillon who might will either turn out to be a dangerous right wing lunatic, or a shrewd populist and pragmatist. But then of course he might also lose.

In comparison, the Uk doesn't look as screwed as all that.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	Trump, as well as most americans, have an affinity for the UK. Of course most have no idea, and think most of them should look like the Beatles and James Bond.

Sometimes I think its good that your average American doesn't know more about the UK. We'd probably lose a lot of sympathy if he did.



I can understand Americans gettting angry about Trump, but to get so worked about an election in another country and to spew so much diatribe and hate over it seems sadly inappropriate to me. Judging from the level of protest, Trump must be worse than Edogan and Mugabe combned.

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	So much for having to wait for a trade deal with the US. "The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said. In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out". Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days' time." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38631832 Of course, as usual, he hasn't quite got his facts straight. "Mr Trump added: "Countries want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity, but I do think if they hadn't been forced to take in all of the refugees than you wouldn't have a Brexit." But then he never let's facts get in the way of a good news headline now, does he.

Facts straight! LOL! From the Guardian report here;

	Quote:
	“If you go down Fifth Avenue every one has a Mercedes Benz in front of his house, isn’t that the case?” he said. “The fact is that ... there is no reciprocity. How many Chevrolets do you see in Germany? Not very many, maybe none at all

Chevrolet is owned by GM, GM also owns Opel which is head quartered in Germany and makes over a million vehicles per year.
Trump's depth of ignorance is incredible.
Anyway he will probably succeed to frighten BMW out of building a new factory for car production in Mexico.

[Phos]

	Quote:	amogles
	Absolutely. And 2017 is going to be the year of change. Merkel still lives the illusion she could win another election, but she's pretty much alone there. The CDU could at best become the junior coalition party behind the SPD whose leaders right now are basically a bunch of opportunists. I'd say as far as Germany is concerned, the future is still very much open. But I believe that in the long run, the pragmatists always win in Germany, and that means they will accept and work with Trump rather than opposing him at every turn. But I said in the long run. It may cost some years of agony until that filters through and certain people agree to eat their humble pies. In France the establishment seems to think it would already be a success if they could prevent Marine being elected. Nobody is thinking beyond that right now. So the left are prepared to rally behind Fillon who might will either turn out to be a dangerous right wing lunatic, or a shrewd populist and pragmatist. But then of course he might also lose. In comparison, the Uk doesn't look as screwed as all that.

Most battles are won by providing a path for the enemy to retreat in a way they can accept. Same in the political arena. In this case, the EU hardliners probably just need a concept they can accept to save face. At the moment, everything is being played according to EU nomenclature.

In the case of US Trade deals, Trump said we will be replacing "free trade" with "smart trade". This play on words is key. Who in their right political mind would reject a concept of being "smart"?

I think this conceptual pathway out is all the EU will need to "gracefully" back track, and allow the politicians to look like they are doing their jobs. Afterall, that is what most of them are simply after.

	Quote:	amogles
	I can understand Americans getting angry about Trump, but to get so worked about an election in another country and to spew so much diatribe and hate over it seems sadly inappropriate to me. Judging from the level of protest, Trump must be worse than Edogan and Mugabe combined.

There's not that much hate, though, is there?

An utter lack of respect, maybe. A ridiculous figure to poke fun at, definitely. Not really "hateful" in the true sense of the meaning, is it?

Erdogan and Mugabe are boring by comparison. Also dickheads but dickheads that don't plaster their own vitriol all over the internet like teenagers.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Most battles are won by providing a path for the enemy to retreat in a way they can accept. Same in the political arena. In this case, the EU hardliners probably just need a concept they can accept to save face. At the moment, everything is being played according to EU nomenclature. In the case of US Trade deals, Trump said we will be replacing "free trade" with "smart trade". This play on words is key. Who in their right political mind would reject a concept of being "smart"? I think this conceptual pathway out is all the EU will need to "gracefully" back track, and allow the politicians to look like they are doing their jobs. Afterall, that is what most of them are simply after.

Legally the UK cannot sign a trade deal with the US while still an EU member and while still a member of the single market.
I wonder how May will explain this to Trump and that he must wait at least two years; I believe Trump is the sort of person who will say "now or never"!

I doubt May will flout EU rules and immediately agree to a trade deal but you never know

[Phos]

	Quote:	marton
	Legally the UK cannot sign a trade deal with the US while still an EU member and while still a member of the single market. I wonder how May will explain this to Trump and that he must wait at least two years; I believe Trump is the sort of person who will say "now or never"! I doubt May will flout EU rules and immediately agree to a trade deal but you never know

Sure they can, to be activate upon clearance of any hurdles. But the message of support is the value in itself. This is about negotiations.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Sure they can, to be activate upon clearance of any hurdles. But the message of support is the value in itself. This is about negotiations.

Kinda difficult to negotiate a trade deal when nobody knows what deal will be agreed between UK and the EU.

	Quote:
	"Nobody with any sense from China, the U.S., Brazil or wherever is going to engage with the UK other than a friendly drink in the bar until the UK has a regime with the EU," retired British trade negotiator Roderick Abbott told Reuters. "That gives them the yardstick against which you negotiate," said Abbott, who during his more than 40-year career worked on trade for the British government, the European Commission and the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Source

	Quote:	Phos
	Sure they can, to be activate upon clearance of any hurdles. But the message of support is the value in itself. This is about negotiations.

I can't imagine Trump will be particularly sympathetic to the fact that the UK has no idea when this proposed deal could be ratified and activated.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	I doubt May will flout EU rules and immediately agree to a trade deal but you never know

It would also mean that they would have to break WTO rules and kick off a global embargo on them both.

	Quote:
	There's not that much hate, though, is there?

Really??

Opera singer Andrea Bocelli ‘backs out of Trump inauguration after receiving death threats’

	Quote:
	Erdogan and Mugabe are boring by comparison. Also dickheads but dickheads that don't plaster their own vitriol all over the internet like teenagers.

Mugabe is a dictator, and Erdogan is as close to being a dictator it makes no difference. Far, far worse than being merely being a dickhead. Trump, who still has not yet taken power, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath as these two.

Indeed, those two have clear policies which they stick to.