The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	It isn't that important. The House has already voted to invoke A50. The Supreme Court has ruled that we need a parliamentary bill to formalise it. All the Tories will vote for it + nearly all Labour MPs, so the result's a foregone conclusion. Very few Commons debates are "important" in the sense of changing anyone's minds. All 650 MPs already know how they will vote, so why does it need more time?

It's not just about the Yes/No itself, it's also and just as importantly about the bill's contents plus potential amendments. The proposition doesn't even say the government *has to* invoke art.50, it leaves the decision to the PM. Plus, nothing's said about what's to follow, again leaving the decision to May.

[lewton]

	Quote:	dodgyken
	0.6% growth last quarter. It would have been 28% had Britain voted to remain.

Article 50 has not been triggered yet.
Let me remind you that Cameron was supposed to trigger it the day after the referendum. All the forecasts been made on that basis.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	EU's 38 national and regional parliaments to get post-Brexit trade deal veto It seems I missed this one over Christmas! The European Court of Justice’s Advocate General, issued a legal opinion ruling that an EU free trade deal with Singapore must be agreed by all member states. We will have to wait for the court to confirm this, which it most likely will. So it looks like the Parliament of Wallonia will have it's say once again!

Yeah what a nightmare. if you ever needed an advertisement for getting out of a club, this is it. It's like something out of the 15th century.. "If anyone of the right honorable gentlemen blackballs you, then your sentenced to death the next day!".

I am astonished they managed to do the Canada one in just 7 years with this setup.

[Urs Max]

Earnest&Young published a poll where they asked 254 senior executives from companies with foreign investments in Europ about the effect of Brexit on their business perspective and reaction thereto.

About one in seven expects to move part or all of their operations to a different country as a consequence of Brexit.

Here's how they expect business to develop over the coming three years (dark grey = improvement, red = worsening) (copyright tagesanzeiger.ch). The TA chart is the same as in the report p.14, with a different angle though. This is the worst outlook ever registered since the study was conducted the first time in 2004:

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Yeah what a nightmare. if you ever needed an advertisement for getting out of a club, this is it. It's like something out of the 15th century.. "If anyone of the right honorable gentlemen blackballs you, then your sentenced to death the next day!". I am astonished they managed to do the Canada one in just 7 years with this setup.

Some people were complaining that the EU was not democratic and we should leave but now you are complaining it is too democratic

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	marton
	Some people were complaining that the EU was not democratic and we should leave but now you are complaining it is too democratic

But it's easy to have 'too much democracy'. Take it to the extreme. Suppose every UK resident had to approve of a new law before it was passed? Yes, an absurd example but it makes the point. Whether the unanimous approval of 38 national/regional parliaments is too much democracy, or not enough, is another matter. It might be beautifully pure democracy but it creates a lot of risk and inefficiency, especially where politics is concerned.

[marton]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	But it's easy to have 'too much democracy'. Take it to the extreme. Suppose every UK resident had to approve of a new law before it was passed? Yes, an absurd example but it makes the point. Whether the unanimous approval of 38 national/regional parliaments is too much democracy, or not enough, is another matter. It might be beautifully pure democracy but it creates a lot of risk and inefficiency, especially where politics is concerned.

Leavers were claiming that the EU made all the decisions and the UK had no influence; now you agree the UK had a veto over all important decisions.

No pleasing some people

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	But it's easy to have 'too much democracy'.

Perhaps, but that's not the point: You can only have either, not both too much and too little.

MPs are now voting on the EU notification of withdrawal.

Results expected at 19:25 UK time.

[marton]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	MPs are now voting on the EU notification of withdrawal. Results expected at 19:25 UK time.

Safe sex

	Quote:	marton
	Safe sex

Don't be silly.. they're not catholic

Results of the notification of the EU withdrawal bill are in.

Ayes: 498 Noes: 114
Majority: 384

And so brexit begins..

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	marton
	Leavers were claiming that the EU made all the decisions and the UK had no influence; now you agree the UK had a veto over all important decisions. No pleasing some people

With respect, marton, that's not a response to anything I said.

[lewton]

Finally Brexit is upon us!
This is exciting.

Best outcome would be Scotland keeping the EU membership.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	lewton
	Finally Brexit is upon us! This is exciting. Best outcome would be Scotland keeping the EU membership.

I agree, that would be a good start. Have it swap location with Switzerland and everybody gets what they want. Except for the mountains perhaps but hey, nothing's perfect.

[marton]

I suppose we get the politicians we deserve?

	Quote:
	Ukip's Paul Nuttall under investigation after admitting to never having lived in his 'permanent residence' in Stoke. In an argument with Channel 4's Michael Crick, the Ukip candidate was forced to admit he hadn't even been to the house, which was previously revealed as being empty of furniture. This has lead to a police report being filed after claims the candidate has broken election rules, and calls for him to be disqualified.

Source

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	I suppose we get the politicians we deserve? Source

I think the term 'permanent residence' is irrelevant in this context, it would be main residence if it was where he lived most of the time. He is likely to be permanent resident of the UK.

[Rob]

The significance of Nuttall giving a false address on his nomination form:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...dress-offence/

Basically he has to put the address that he was living at at the time of nomination on the form. As in the article above making a false statement on a declaration form is seen as serious and can lead to jail time.

Nuttall wouldn't be the first kipper sent down for this kind of thing. Quite a few have ended up in prison for making false statements, usually forging electors signatures (you need 10 signatures from people living in the constituency to be able to stand)

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Earnest&Young published a poll where they asked 254 senior executives from companies with foreign investments in Europ about the effect of Brexit on their business perspective and reaction thereto. About one in seven expects to move part or all of their operations to a different country as a consequence of Brexit. Here's how they expect business to develop over the coming three years (dark grey = improvement, red = worsening) (copyright tagesanzeiger.ch). The TA chart is the same as in the report p.14, with a different angle though. This is the worst outlook ever registered since the study was conducted the first time in 2004:

Interesting graph.

It would be interesting to correlate that with how accurate those past predictions turned out to be.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	amogles
	Interesting graph. It would be interesting to correlate that with how accurate those past predictions turned out to be.

Plus of course yesterday the UK economic figures for growth were upgraded yet again.