The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[cyrus]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	There were quite a few from the left who supported EU as they saw it as a backdoor way to bring in some socialist policies (e.g. WTD). Now, there are quite a few vocal anti-EU voices on the left - who see that EU is not necessarily pro-worker (esp. what they did in Greece).

I have zero confidence that the UK will act in workers interests should they leave the EU

	Quote:
	Under EU customs Union, the UK has lost control of part of its control of trade and cannot sign free trade deals or favourable trade deals with other countries. The damage that this done in the last years cannot easily be calculated.

The damage is relative, not being able to buy a house is damaging, not being able to buy kiwis is not

	Quote:
	It's not a ban on say, non-EU beef, but tarifss that make it more expensive. you can look it up, but, say if you slap on a 20% tariff, then you favour some products over another.

But as far as small business trade goes, you can still sell it, I wonder if Brexit actually wants you to get cheaper food, or it's just the idea of cheaper food that won't actually happen. I'm conflicted on this issue, but past experience with any uk parties tell me you won^'t get what you thought.

	Quote:
	Other more subtle ones come from sneaky trade barrier put in e.g. reduction in aflotoxins allowed in brazil nuts. Of course, there was no scientific basis to reduce from the exising 20ppb to 4ppb (or whatever they reduced it to). But that handily stopped the ecologically friendly hand-harvested from rainforest nuts in bolivia from coming in for a while. The upshot is of course higher prices (and shortages in EU) of those nuts. I'll wager Eurocrat earned a fat brown envelope from some industry lobbiest who did well to shut out cheap competition.

And there definitely won't be a UK fatcat doing the same thing

	Quote:
	To be honest, I think not only will the UK benefit from being out of the EU, but so would all of Europe. The EU has become a giant anti-democratic parasite. The EU economy has been slowly tanking (IMO, in no small part due to EU instincts and practices).

It's not anti democratic, it's just that people want a bit of socialism, and some people in the UK still have a hard time understanding that not being a total free market libertarian is not equal to communism.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Having a trade agreement with China would be a good starting point, won't happen with the EU as China can do things cheaper due to lower wages.

So what exactly would such an agreement look like as opposed to what you have now? The current rules try to prevent dumping and in so doing protect unskilled jobs that would not compete on costs alone. Would you prefer to see a large influx of cheap products putting local unskilled or semi-skilled jobs at risk in exchange for the sale of some say high value items? Or perhaps instead UK manufacturers could be allowed to flaunt labor laws and push wages down so the could compete in the local Chinese market?

Just what kind of a deal do you expect to be able to make that will be so much better for the average UK citizen?

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Under EU customs Union, the UK has lost control of part of its control of trade and cannot sign free trade deals or favourable trade deals with other countries. The damage that this done in the last years cannot easily be calculated.

So the UK produces a negative balance of trade, while most of the EU countries have improved their position, the Euro zone as a whole produces a positive balance, Italy produces a positive balance, the PIGS reduce their deficits and Ireland reaches record highs in exporting.. And yet you think the EU is some how restricting the UK from doing the same? I would suggest it has far more to do with the U.K. ecomomy than anything else, after all the UK has fully control over it's currency as we keep hearing.

[cyrus]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So the UK produces a negative balance of trade, while most of the EU countries have improved their position, the Euro zone as a whole produces a positive balance, Italy produces a positive balance, the PIGS reduce their deficits and Ireland reaches record highs in exporting.. And yet you think the EU is some how restricting the UK from doing the same? I would suggest it has far more to do with the U.K. ecomomy than anything else, after all the UK has fully control over it's currency as we keep hearing.

My opinion too, it's all about a scapegoat for britains own problems.

Left or right, they still gonna have to deal with the worst problems, on top of renogitating trade deals.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You have to remember that we buy a lot of goods from Europe, I don't see that VW, BMW or Mercedes will not want to sell to the UK, our trade with Europe will be unaffected as Europe has too much to loose. Switzerland does OK out of the EU.....

Well of course they will be happy to sell to you! But you've got a trade deficit with the rest of the EU and it is widening, so clearly they are already not too excited about buying from you, of course if the pound was to fall as 20% or 30% after an exit that might change.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	So what your saying is that agreements are irrelevant, the UK can trade throughout the world & equally well with the EU if it leaves, so there is no reason whatsoever the be a member of the EU. I am pleased your getting my point.

I don't believe the UK will trade equally well with the EU for a number of years post Brexit.

	Quote:	cyrus
	I utterly fail to see how leaving the EU is going to benifit any single person on this forum. Excpet the i"?m moving to another country to get away from the foreigners" or "I'm moving away to pay less taxes" types. Everyone else, you gonna move back to the UK if it leaves?

There will be some people who have a vested financial interest in destabilising the UK and EU economies for their own profit. This whole debarcle wouldn't be happening if that were not the case.

Krups, Siemens, Halliburton, etc... There's always someone and certain industries who profit from uncertainty and change. When their market becomes a little stagnant, it doesn't take much to change things in their favour. In this life there is no need for conspiracy theories. Fact is always far stranger than fiction, especially when you take the time to pour over what is in the public domain.

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-...ial-interests/

Like Copeland Blue Ltd of Seebeck House, Milton Keynes, a company so small that they don't have a website and the shareholders' equity figure is GBP 42.9k, yet it can afford to donate GBP 3k per year to a body linked to Michael Gove. It's enough to set your Spidey senses tingling.... Did EU legislation thwart some morally bankrupt deal they thought they had in the bag? Who knows!!!


I came to Switzerland as a 'trailing partner'. I left my job of ten years to be with the man I love, and 5 days later my former employer announced the next round of redundancies which included my team. The reason was that they moved the large contract I'd worked on to be serviced from another location. Shocking how jobs can disappear overnight.

I have equity / property in the UK plus a final salary pension from a previous employer. If Brexit happens and the shit hits the fan a few years down the line, I'll probably move to Greece where I can afford a gorgeous home and live like a queen.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I don't believe the UK will trade equally well with the EU for a number of years post Brexit. There will be some people who have a vested financial interest in destabilising the UK and EU economies for their own profit. This whole debarcle wouldn't be happening if that were not the case. Krups, Siemens, Halliburton, etc... There's always someone and certain industries who profit from uncertainty and change. When their market becomes a little stagnant, it doesn't take much to change things in their favour. In this life there is no need for conspiracy theories. Fact is always far stranger than fiction, especially when you take the time to pour over what is in the public domain. https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-...ial-interests/ Like Copeland Blue Ltd of Seebeck House, Milton Keynes, a company so small that they don't have a website and the shareholders' equity figure is GBP 42.9k, yet it can afford to donate GBP 3k per year to a body linked to Michael Gove. It's enough to set your Spidey senses tingling.... Did EU legislation thwart some morally bankrupt deal they thought they had in the bag? Who knows!!! I came to Switzerland as a 'trailing partner'. I left my job of ten years to be with the man I love, and 5 days later my former employer announced the next round of redundancies which included my team. The reason was that they moved the large contract I'd worked on to be serviced from another location. Shocking how jobs can disappear overnight. I have equity / property in the UK plus a final salary pension from a previous employer. If Brexit happens and the shit hits the fan a few years down the line, I'll probably move to Greece where I can afford a gorgeous home and live like a queen.

"my former employer announced the next round of redundancies which included my team". Uncertain world; my last freelance job was with a major company. Very soon after I left they outsourced the whole department to Infosys in India.
I thought that was OK for me except future employers wanted references from my last employer and they were all gone!

[lewton]

I have to admit that the Leave side has a far easier job because it is very easy to say things like "unelected bureaucrats", "independent Britain" etc.

But somehow I have a feeling that the In side will win.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	lewton
	I have to admit that the Leave side has a far easier job because it is very easy to say things like "unelected bureaucrats", "independent Britain" etc. But somehow I have a feeling that the In side will win.

What is just as "easy to say" is that if we leave the EU, we will expose ourselves to terrorist attack, higher food prices, retirees being forced to give up property and expelled from EU nations, higher airfares, high unemployment, recession, being at the back of the queue in trade negotiations, stock market crash, collapse in house prices, and the rest of the old bo11ocks we have had to put up with from the Remain side.

It sums up the poor level of debate around this argument.

As for "unelected bureaucrats" (which hardly carries the same level of menace as total economic and terrorist armageddon), what is your point exactly? Are you actually happy with the level of democratic accountability in the EU? Do you think the EU doesn't have a huge army of unelected bureaucrats?

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	lewton
	But somehow I have a feeling that the In side will win.

Yes, fear of change or the uncertain is almost too strong. If we had to vote to join the EU, we probably would not have joined either.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Yes, fear of change or the uncertain is almost too strong. If we had to vote to join the EU, we probably would not have joined either.

Granted, it was after the event, but we did. I remember it clearly as all my family were self-employed and determined to be in the EU.

	Quote:
	United Kingdom The Conservative government of Edward Heath did not hold a referendum before the United Kingdom joined. Labour's manifesto for the 1974 general election included a pledge for a referendum, so after Labour won under Harold Wilson, the referendum was held on whether to remain in the Communities. The result was 67.2% in favour, with a turnout of 64.0%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refere...European_Union

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So the UK produces a negative balance of trade, while most of the EU countries have improved their position, the Euro zone as a whole produces a positive balance, Italy produces a positive balance, the PIGS reduce their deficits and Ireland reaches record highs in exporting.

“The EU is the only bloc since 2008 that has not shown growth, whereas every other part of the world has,” says Patrick Barbour, who has donated £500,000 to Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign, and who ran two publicly listed businesses. “[After Brexit] we could concentrate on expanding our trade worldwide.”

Why not leave rather than fighting a zero-sum game in a declining protectionist bloc?

[lewton]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	What is just as "easy to say" is that if we leave the EU, we will expose ourselves to terrorist attack, higher food prices, retirees being forced to give up property and expelled from EU nations, higher airfares, high unemployment, recession, being at the back of the queue in trade negotiations, stock market crash, collapse in house prices, and the rest of the old bo11ocks we have had to put up with from the Remain side. It sums up the poor level of debate around this argument. As for "unelected bureaucrats" (which hardly carries the same level of menace as total economic and terrorist armageddon), what is your point exactly? Are you actually happy with the level of democratic accountability in the EU? Do you think the EU doesn't have a huge army of unelected bureaucrats?

I actually hate the direction that the EU has taken and the completely undemocratic and unaccountable way it is functioning right now, and this is why I really want to see Brexit happening.
I don't care much about what will happen to the UK (I hope you don't judge me for this, after all I am sure you don't give a s**t about my country either), but as a pro-EU federalist who would like to have a central European government elected by the people, I hope that the shock of a Brexit will act as a wake-up call.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	“The EU is the only bloc since 2008 that has not shown growth, whereas every other part of the world has,” says Patrick Barbour, who has donated £500,000 to Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign, and who ran two publicly listed businesses. “[After Brexit] we could concentrate on expanding our trade worldwide.”

Barbour is a member of UKIP. he's been a Eurosceptic since Adam was a lad. I would love him to prove his many millions have been restricted by being in the EU. From where I'm sitting, he's made a very tidy living out of his beliefs and has lined his own pockets accordingly. I doubt he gives a flying **** for anyone other than himself.

	Quote:
	Barbour has been politically active on the Eurosceptic right of the Conservative Party since at least the early nineties when he helped to fund the Bruges Group.[11] In 2010 the Sunday Times reported that Barbour had made donations to UKIP through Global Britain.[12]

http://powerbase.info/index.php/Patrick_Barbour

	Quote:	lewton
	I don't care much about what will happen to the UK (I hope you don't judge me for this, after all I am sure you don't give a s**t about my country either), but as a pro-EU federalist who would like to have a central European government elected by the people, I hope that the shock of a Brexit will act as a wake-up call.

I care an awful lot about your country. We have a home and family there and I would take up arms to defend your country if the need ever arose.

But...I will never sacrifice my country to enable you to fulfill your agenda.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I care an awful lot about your country. We have a home and family there and I would take up arms to defend your country if the need ever arose. But...I will never sacrifice my country to enable you to fulfill your agenda.

I am not asking you to vote in the British referendum as per my agenda's interests.
You should vote what you think is the best for your country. Not for you personally, not for your family, but for your country.


This does not mean that I cannot have my preference with respect to the British referendum, which again is not about my own or my family's personal agenda, but about what is good for my country.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	lewton
	This does not mean that I cannot have my preference with respect to the British referendum, which again is not about my own or my family's personal agenda, but about what is good for my country.

I respect that, but as you know from our previous discussions, in my experience, you are an anomaly. I only know one small family in Greece who would agree with you, whereas I know literally hundreds of Greeks who would disagree with you.

In my experience, your point of view is exceptionally rare. Last Summer, I fully expected to hear your opinion everywhere I went, but was overwhelmed by the opposite being the case.

[AbFab]

The EU's not all bad after all:

	Quote:
	438 out of 687 MEPs in the European Parliament voted in favour of an amendment that would stop over €100 million in EU agricultural subsidies from being used to raise bulls for bullfights.

http://www.peta.org.uk/blog/victory-...-bullfighting/

[lewton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I respect that, but as you know from our previous discussions, in my experience, you are an anomaly. I only know one small family in Greece who would agree with you, whereas I know literally hundreds of Greeks who would disagree with you. In my experience, your point of view is exceptionally rare. Last Summer, I fully expected to hear your opinion everywhere I went, but was overwhelmed by the opposite being the case.

You mean my point of view is rare with respect to Brexit (from the EU) or with respect to Grexit (from the euro)?

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Granted, it was after the event, but we did. I remember it clearly as all my family were self-employed and determined to be in the EU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refere...European_Union

It was a vote to remain, not a vote to join. If we now just leave the EU and have a vote a while later whether to rejoin, a lot of the no votes due to uncertainty would disappear as they would instead crystallise to be strong yes or no votes.

[lewton]

To add to the insult, if shortly after a Brexit countries like Denmark, Sweden, Poland or the Czech Republic (we can call it Czechia now?) follow suit and exit the EU, I am convinced that one of tho things will happen:
1. the EU will die all together
2. the EU will get itself fixed
Both of these two things are better than what we have today.
So I am willing to risk it.
So dear Brits, please vote out.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	lewton
	To add to the insult, if shortly after a Brexit countries like Denmark, Sweden, Poland or the Czech Republic.....

Hey, don't forget the Dutch who are among the most eurosceptic of the lot.