The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	Back in the days before such checks were abolished, there was something called TIR. Lorries could clear customs at a local customs point rather than on the border. Seals would then prove the load hadn't been tampered with and customs officials waved such lorries through. It would be odd if 30 years later, we wouldn't be able to emulate what was once common practice.

Most likely the UK will need to adapt to whatever is the standard way that the EU deals with third country tariffs. Can't see places like Europort having one system for everyone else and a special system for the UK.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Most likely the UK will need to adapt to whatever is the standard way that the EU deals with third country tariffs. Can't see places like Europort having one system for everyone else and a special system for the UK.

You mean they are not capable of making a value judgment and make pragmatic choices? That sounds about how things go with the EU.

	Quote:	Phos
	You mean they are not capable of making a value judgment and make pragmatic choices? That sounds about how things go with the EU.

Not having a special system just for the sake of the UK IS the pragmatic choice.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	You mean they are not capable of making a value judgment and make pragmatic choices? That sounds about how things go with the EU.

They have a system that works for dealing with everyone else, if the U.K. can make it work for them, then that is their problem. Can't get more pragmatic than that.

So they end up with a system that doesn't fit anybody, then force everybody to conform to it. Hence, some have joked and compared it to a prison system.

That tact is not going to last very long.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	So they end up with a system that doesn't fit anybody, then force everybody to conform to it. Hence, some have joked and compared it to a prison system. That tact is not going to last very long.

tact, noun;
skill and sensitivity in dealing with others or with difficult issues.

[marton]

Copeland and Stoke by-elections today.
Should give a reading on people's feelings about Brexit progress but complicated by the fact there is a major storm "Doris" forecast that will discourage voters.

Stoke elections were always won by Labour so it would be a big setback if they fail.

Source

	Quote:	Phos
	So they end up with a system that doesn't fit anybody, then force everybody to conform to it. Hence, some have joked and compared it to a prison system. That tact is not going to last very long.

As usual completely ignoring the point. As far as trade is concerned, the system DOES work for everyone else. If you want to export to a country or trade bloc it is your responsibility to work with their systems and not the other way round. You can't do that your customers will look elsewhere.

The EU are not forcing the UK to leave the single market, that is the UK's choice. And if they leave they cannot expect to receive the benefits of the single market - one of which is the whole borderless, tarif-free import/export system.

If the UK want out of that then they have to accept they are in exactly the boat as Morocco for example.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Copeland and Stoke by-elections today. Should give a reading on people's feelings about Brexit progress but complicated by the fact there is a major storm "Doris" forecast that will discourage voters. Stoke elections were always won by Labour so it would be a big setback if they fail. Source

Ah yes. I have some facebook friends who are pretty involved there - on the labour side.

They are predicting that if Labour can beat UKIP, UKIP is finished forever.

I suppose that if you can't delude anybody else you can at least delude yourself.

	Quote:	marton
	Copeland and Stoke by-elections today. Should give a reading on people's feelings about Brexit progress but complicated by the fact there is a major storm "Doris" forecast that will discourage voters. Stoke elections were always won by Labour so it would be a big setback if they fail. Source

Stoke in particular is impossible to predict. Strongest Brexit area of the whole UK I believe coupled with a UKIP candidate who is a complete turd.

	Quote:
	As usual completely ignoring the point. As far as trade is concerned, the system DOES work for everyone else. If you want to export to a country or trade bloc it is your responsibility to work with their systems and not the other way round. You can't do that your customers will look elsewhere. The EU are not forcing the UK to leave the single market, that is the UK's choice. And if they leave they cannot expect to receive the benefits of the single market - one of which is the whole borderless, tarif-free import/export system. If the UK want out of that then they have to accept they are in exactly the boat as Morocco for example.

I think you're oblivious to the point. In reality, when there is value in making a special arrangement that outweighs the cost of making that arrangement, it is a beneficial proposition one takes for everybody's benefit. That is called pragmatism.

	Quote:	Phos
	I think you're oblivious to the point. In reality, when there is value in making a special arrangement that outweighs the cost of making that arrangement, it is a beneficial proposition one takes for everybody's benefit. That is called pragmatism.

I think you're oblivious to the point that in this case the benefit of the special arrangement would be to the UK and (due to the non-trade costs) not the EU.

	Quote:
	Stoke in particular is impossible to predict. Strongest Brexit area of the whole UK I believe coupled with a UKIP candidate who is a complete turd.

Actually thinking about it, most UKIP candidates everywhere are complete turds. But this one is even more than usual.

	Quote:
	I think you're oblivious to the point that in this case the benefit of the special arrangement would be to the UK and (due to the non-trade costs) not the EU.

I think you'r oblivious to the point that a trade arrangement is intended to be a benefit to both sides. But if the point is about punishing the UK for breaking out of prison, then it isn't about trade at all.

	Quote:	Phos
	I think you'r oblivious to the point that a trade arrangement is intended to be a benefit to both sides. But if the point is about punishing the UK for breaking out of prison, then it isn't about trade at all.

Nothing to do with punishing. If you don't pay the price for belonging to a club why should you share in the benefits of that club?

I don't expect to get in to the local golf club for a round of golf for free if I don't pay the annual membership.

	Quote:
	Nothing to do with punishing. If you don't pay the price for belonging to a club why should you share in the benefits of that club? I don't expect to get in to the local golf club for a round of golf for free if I don't pay the annual membership.

You have to call it what it is. It is EU protectionism and a political union, and not about free trade. Which is fine. But it needs to be dealt with for what it is.

I don't think the EU really wants to get into a trade war with the UK. The UK can set up a tax haven if they wanted and the EU would hurt.

The question for the EU is if the want to conduct business or politics. These are two different approaches, each with their own consequences.

The UK can run circles around the EU for the reason that the EU is a huge rudderless ship that isn't able to maneuver. Just how serious are they about conducting business?

	Quote:
	Actually thinking about it, most UKIP candidates everywhere are complete turds. But this one is even more than usual.

He's a scouser using pity for personal gain. Nothing new there.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Nothing to do with punishing. If you don't pay the price for belonging to a club why should you share in the benefits of that club? I don't expect to get in to the local golf club for a round of golf for free if I don't pay the annual membership.

its a good analogy and I guess it depends on who runs the Golf Club. In this case the Golf club has some members who run business's. one makes golf clubs and the other makes golf balls.

Because they are all in the club, they sell to each other at cost price and it means the clubs shops can then sell on the balls at a profit and vice versa. all good.

The Golf Club shop though is getting annoyed with other aspects of the club so resigns. Bad news.

however the livelihood of the businesses rely on their sales. So its now up to them to decide. They could carry on agreeing to sell each other the balls and clubs at cost price, then sell them on to customers for their profit and each come home a bit richer. Alternatively the people who run the golf club could arbitarily make the golf club seller pay a tax for selling to the golf ball shop and of course then the golf club seller would do the reverse. The result would be poorer businesses on both sides - both the balls and the clubs shop - but the people who run the gold club could give themselves a big pat on the back for ensuring only people in the club, see the benefits.

This oversimplifies things grossly of course but I liked the analogy.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Phos
	You have to call it what it is. It is EU protectionism and a political union, and not about free trade. Which is fine. But it needs to be dealt with for what it is. ?

Interesting, you blame the EU protectionism but wholeheartedly agree with the protectionist policies Trump was peddling during the campaign...( I have no idea whether he did anything concrete so far)
Double standards, much?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	You have to call it what it is. It is EU protectionism and a political union, and not about free trade. Which is fine. But it needs to be dealt with for what it is. I don't think the EU really wants to get into a trade war with the UK. The UK can set up a tax haven if they wanted and the EU would hurt. The question for the EU is if the want to conduct business or politics. These are two different approaches, each with their own consequences. The UK can run circles around the EU for the reason that the EU is a huge rudderless ship that isn't able to maneuver. Just how serious are they about conducting business?

Being a tax haven alone wouldn't keep the Uk afloat. Places like the Cayman Islands benefit from having low populations and little infrastructure. I doubt that even if all the banks in the world were to transfer their tax haven relevant activities to the UK that that would generate sufficient jobs and income to keep the entire Uk afloat (or indeed whether the present workforce could adapt to such jobs). The UK also needs a serious mix of other industries including manufacturing. May understands this and is trying to do deals across the board.