The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	greenmount
	Interesting, you blame the EU protectionism but wholeheartedly agree with the protectionist politics Trump was peddling on during the campaign...( I have no idea whether he did anything concrete so far) Double standards, much?

Blame? Its simply calling it what it is. Multilateralism denies nations the ability to look after its interests. Bilateralism is all about mutually beneficial arrangements.

Bilateralism is like consensual sex between two consenting adults. Multilateralism is like working as a prostitute in a brothel.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Phos
	Blame? Its simply calling it what it is. Multilateralism denies nations the ability to look after its interests. Bilateralism is all about mutually beneficial arrangements.

Ehrm, ok...I'll try to make sense of your usual half-baked thoughts: EU is acting like a single part in the negotiations with the UK. It's their choice for the time being.

	Quote:	amogles
	Being a tax haven alone wouldn't keep the Uk afloat. Places like the Cayman Islands benefit from having low populations and little infrastructure. I doubt that even if all the banks in the world were to transfer their tax haven relevant activities to the UK that that would generate sufficient jobs and income to keep the entire Uk afloat (or indeed whether the present workforce could adapt to such jobs). The UK also needs a serious mix of other industries including manufacturing. May understands this and is trying to do deals across the board.

Okay, I don't think May is interested in doing this, only that if the EU and the UK were to find themselves down a contentious path, there are strategic measures the UK can take that could hurt the EU as well. So the question is whether to find a mutually beneficial solution, or a contentious one.

The rhetoric from the EU sounds as if they believe the EU is an ends to itself, and worth foregoing economic pragmatism in their drive to uphold it.

	Quote:	Phos
	You have to call it what it is. It is EU protectionism and a political union, and not about free trade. Which is fine. But it needs to be dealt with for what it is.

If you want to look at it that way, where is the slightest difference to any other arrangement for any country? Do you seriously expect the UK to have free trade arrangements with absolutely everywhere? Isn't going to happen and that's the same for every country barring a handful of special cases.

I note your hero, Trump, wants a 35% import duty on Mexico.

	Quote:	Phos
	The UK can set up a tax haven if they wanted and the EU would hurt.

The UK already is a tax haven. There's nothing further they can realistically do in that direction except loosing access to the single market will reduce the attraction of being a tax haven to being at the level of something like the Cayman Islands

	Quote:
	If you want to look at it that way, where is the slightest difference to any other arrangement for any country? Do you seriously expect the UK to have free trade arrangements with absolutely everywhere? Isn't going to happen and that's the same for every country barring a handful of special cases. I note your hero, Trump, wants a 35% import duty on Mexico. The UK already is a tax haven. There's nothing further they can realistically do in that direction except loosing access to the single market will reduce the attraction of being a tax haven to being at the level of something like the Cayman Islands

No, it looks like they are breaking off, and no special deals should be expected, as the EU is rigid and not really capable of moving. If and when they find opportunities for optimization, they can explore it after the fact.

Normally, two parties assess what they want from each other, and negotiate a deal trade. This is difficult for the EU, but it is much easier to do between two parties.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Phos
	Normally, two parties assess what they want from each other, and negotiate a deal trade. This is difficult for the EU, but it is much easier to do between two parties.

There are two parties already, shall I make a drawing for you?

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Blame? Its simply calling it what it is. Multilateralism denies nations the ability to look after its interests. Bilateralism is all about mutually beneficial arrangements. Bilateralism is like consensual sex between two consenting adults. Multilateralism is like working as a prostitute in a brothel.

You mean Multilateralism as in a confederation like Switzerland or, oh yes, the US.
Many US states are larger than EU countries!

So you are writing the individual US States are "like working as a prostitute in a brothel". I do not agree but if you say so

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	You mean Multilateralism as in a confederation like Switzerland or, oh yes, the US. Many US states are larger than EU countries! So you are writing the individual US States are "like working as a prostitute in a brothel". I do not agree but if you say so

I take it he knows an awful lot about this sort of affairs..

	Quote:	Phos
	No, it looks like they are breaking off, and no special deals should be expected, as the EU is rigid and not really capable of moving. If and when they find opportunities for optimization, they can explore it after the fact. Normally, two parties assess what they want from each other, and negotiate a deal trade. This is difficult for the EU, but it is much easier to do between two parties.

How can they break off something that hasn't even started and can't start until the UK triggers Article 50?

They have made it clear that the UK can't expect to benefit from freedom without accepting all the others and the financial obligation that comes with it. And quite rightly.

	Quote:	greenmount
	There are two parties already, shall I make a drawing for you?

Naw, there are 27 parties in the EU, which is why it and the countries within it are incapacitated.

It will crack up in due course of time. No need to agree to a bad deal with it, as it may as well be irrelevant in the long term.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Naw, there are 27 parties in the EU, which is why it and the countries within it are incapacitated. It will crack up in due course of time. No need to agree to a bad deal with it, as it may as well be irrelevant in the long term.

Yes but they are all there voluntarily and can leave when they want to e.g. Brexit.
So the EU is far more democratic than the US! If a US state tries to secede they are attacked by the other States, beaten in a war and forced to remain.

If the governor of California had any sense he would try to secede.
So avoiding Trump's anti liberal and LGBT policies, do a deal with the border country Mexico and all live happily ever after!

[marton]

Some good news

	Quote:
	A global trade agreement worth $1 trillion entered into force on Wednesday, despite President Trump's strong anti-trade rhetoric. The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) is aimed at cutting red tape and making the international flow of goods more seamless. It spans all 164 members of the World Trade Organization, including the U.S. It will slash paperwork and ease border delays and transit bottlenecks. The World Trade Organization said it will reduce by over a day and a half the time needed to import goods, and cut nearly two days from the time needed to export goods.

Source

[marton]

Slight fall in UK immigration in the quarter to last September

	Quote:
	Net migration to Britain fell by 49,000 to 273,000 in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, partly fuelled by 12,000 more Poles and other eastern Europeans leaving the UK, according to official figures.

Source

The number of EU nationals in Britain who had their applications processed for UK residence documents to secure their individual status post-Brexit doubled from 92,289 in 2015 to 201,287 in 2016.
More than 140,000 were successful.

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	Slight fall in UK immigration in the quarter to last September Source The number of EU nationals in Britain who had their applications processed for UK residence documents to secure their individual status post-Brexit doubled from 92,289 in 2015 to 201,287 in 2016. More than 140,000 were successful.

Update
I thought the fall in Sterling would make the UK much less attractive than this small change indicates.

Anyway another confusing statement

	Quote:
	The UK is not about to “suddenly shut the door” on low-skilled EU migrants, Brexit secretary David Davis has reiterated. Davis said in a press conference in Riga, Latvia, that Britain wanted control over immigration but that it would only restrict free movement of people when it was in the “national interest”.

Source

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Yes but they are all there voluntarily and can leave when they want to e.g. Brexit. So the EU is far more democratic than the US! If a US state tries to secede they are attacked by the other States, beaten in a war and forced to remain. If the governor of California had any sense he would try to secede. So avoiding Trump's anti liberal and LGBT policies, do a deal with the border country Mexico and all live happily ever after!

It helped of course that when that happened in the US, that the states that seceded were backwards technologically and militarily. And there was also the slavery thing that gave the Union a moral high ground.

History doesn't always repeat itself. But for example in terms of the high tarriffs that the South was being forced to pay, there are parallels.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	It helped of course that when that happened in the US, that the states that seceded were backwards technologically and militarily. And there was also the slavery thing that gave the Union a moral high ground. History doesn't always repeat itself. But for example in terms of the high tarriffs that the South was being forced to pay, there are parallels.

"for example in terms of the high tariffs that the South was being forced to pay, there are parallels" You see a war with Mexico? I doubt it!

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	marton
	If the governor of California had any sense he would try to secede.

No need to.

In a few years the big one will come, and California will fall into the sea!

Tom

[amogles]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	No need to. In a few years the big one will come, and California will fall into the sea! Tom

Just imagine Las Vegas with a coastline.

That just gives awesome a whole new meaning.

MEP trade committee believes it wil be easier for the EU to conclude a trade deal with India after the UK has left

Here

Seems the main stumbling blocks have been whisky tariffs and UK visa rules.

I thought there were those on here complaining that the EU didn't let people from former UK colonies in? Seems it's the UK that wants to keep them out.

Tories win Copeland and Stoke stays Labour, with a massive 36% turnout.

Enough for Corbyn to stay on and carry on ruining the party