The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:
	Brilliant spoof cartoon- made me so laugh when I saw it earlier. Now, let's imagine- who is going to burst in on knees and pull them back through that door? (hoping his arm is pulled as hard or harder than in the original!)

Junker, I reckon, considering what he has been quoted as saying last week.. with a freshly re-elected Tusk who is probably out in the kitchen putting the kettle on

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Why not? We decided we wanted out, let's get on with it. Besides EU leaders won't want her doing it the last week in March because they'll all be patting themselves on the back for managing 60 years of the EU. Last thing they want is May triggering the Article then.

It'll still be another two years after triggering the Article to come into effect. I am sure they are not in jovial back patting moods as they are aware that after 60 years of mostly success and unity in Europe a minority of people from England were sold lies and have managed to threaten the course of European stability. Its actually tragic.

[bainzy]

Britain should invite Eire to join us before they get caught in the EU implosion!

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	NI is a tax? Even Hammond said that! From Hammonds Budget speech; The difference in National Insurance Contributions is no longer justified by the difference in benefits entitlement. Such dramatically different treatment of two people earning essentially the same undermines the fairness of the tax system.

NI is not a tax, Hammond never said it was. I have no idea what tax system means, as it's meaningless when discussing NI, Just as AHV / UI / AI are insurance & not tax.

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	NI is not a tax, Hammond never said it was. I have no idea what tax system means, as it's meaningless when discussing NI, Just as AHV / UI / AI are insurance & not tax.

Sorry but by any reasonable measure it is a tax. AHV etc. receipts go to a dedicated fund and can be viewed as an insurance . National Insurance goes to the treasury same as any other tax.

Sure payment is linked to certain benefits but the amount paid has no connection to the cost of those benefits.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	Sure payment is linked to certain benefits but the amount paid has no connection to the cost of those benefits.

That is a very sad fact, the cost is covered by a tiny majority which is considered fair by the majority. 50% of families in the UK receive over 50% of their income as tax credits or benefits. Thank Tony Blair & the Labour Party for that, it would have never happened with Mrs Thatcher as PM.

You could say the same for Swiss health insurance, the premium is not based on risk........ not called a tax, a legal requirement so a tax.

[marton]

	Quote:
	Theresa May has been accused by a powerful parliamentary committee of putting the national interest at risk by failing to prepare for the “real prospect” that two years of Brexit negotiations could end with no deal. The criticism – and warnings of dire consequences – is levelled at May by the all-party foreign affairs select committee only days before she is expected to trigger article 50 – the formal process that will end the UK’s 44-year membership of the European Union. After a detailed inquiry into what would happen if Brexit negotiations failed, the Tory chairman of the committee, Crispin Blunt, a supporter of leaving the EU, said: “The possibility of ‘no deal’ is real enough to require the government to plan how to deal with it. “But there is no evidence to indicate that this is receiving the consideration it deserves or that serious contingency planning is under way. The government has repeatedly said that it will walk away from a ‘bad’ final deal. That makes preparing for ‘no deal’ all the more essential.

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bainzy
	Britain should invite Eire to join us before they get caught in the EU implosion!

A different economy, currency, foreign policy and the most pro EU stated in the Union, versus a common language and a partial shared history. l'd say that would be a pass!

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	FMOP is the current battle line with Brexit in public discussions. Elsewhere, FMOP is driving the upsurge of right wing populism; AfD, Le Pen, Geert Wilders, etc. Of course it goes deeper. Ultimately, it is about national sovereignty.

Just curious, Geert Wilders hair style strangely reminds me of Trump. Anybody else see this or is it just me? It is also claimed he colours or bleaches his blonde hair?

Marie le Pen also goes for the long blonde hair look!

[Aeneas]

I'm surprised no one has added this to the discussion:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-39255181

Support for Scottish independence is greater than the last referendum, but apparently not by much. One thing that has changed is the EU has become warmer to the idea of Scotland joining the EU separately and Spain has withdrawn it's threat to veto such an admission.

Either way, if it goes ahead, it is difficult to see this as anything other than a further weakening of British negotiating strength.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	I'm surprised no one has added this to the discussion: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-39255181 Support for Scottish independence is greater than the last referendum, but apparently not by much. One thing that has changed is the EU has become warmer to the idea of Scotland joining the EU separately and Spain has withdrawn it's threat to veto such an admission. Either way, if it goes ahead, it is difficult to see this as anything other than a further weakening of British negotiating strength.

It won't be allowed to go ahead (quite rightly) until after Brexit has taken place. This is merely noise from Sturgeon.

[Chuff]

Sturgeon is so desperate to have another go at independence her methods are becoming cringeworthy. This crusade will likely destroy her credibility and political career.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It won't be allowed to go ahead (quite rightly) until after Brexit has taken place. This is merely noise from Sturgeon.

Presuming she can achieve such a delay, that would at best weaken the UK's position less, but it would still remain weakened. Indeed, if the UK were to leave the EU without any deal and/or outside the common market, that would likely improve the chances of such a referendum passing if run after the deal deadline.

I'm wondering why Richdog and you are so dismissive about this move - how exactly is it "desperate" or "noise"?

[fatmanfilms]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39262081
Brexit bill: Parliament clears way for talks with EU

[marton]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Presuming she can achieve such a delay, that would at best weaken the UK's position less, but it would still remain weakened. Indeed, if the UK were to leave the EU without any deal and/or outside the common market, that would likely improve the chances of such a referendum passing if run after the deal deadline. I'm wondering why Richdog and you are so dismissive about this move - how exactly is it "desperate" or "noise"?

If Scotland leaves and N. Ireland joins Eire then they will have to change the name to "non-United Kingdom"

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Presuming she can achieve such a delay, that would at best weaken the UK's position less, but it would still remain weakened. Indeed, if the UK were to leave the EU without any deal and/or outside the common market, that would likely improve the chances of such a referendum passing if run after the deal deadline. I'm wondering why Richdog and you are so dismissive about this move - how exactly is it "desperate" or "noise"?

It's noise because she's asking for something that she know's she can't get.

	Quote:	Chuff
	Sturgeon is so desperate to have another go at independence her methods are becoming cringeworthy. This crusade will likely destroy her credibility and political career.

Seems unlikely, her MO is seeking independence, so not sure why doing so would damage her in the eyes of the people that want it.
There are plenty of disaffected labour voters who said NO last time who will surely be shifting towards YES, the polls are already confirming this, they are at parity for the first time.

[Sbrinz]

Scotland's second referendum, Indyref2, is being discussed, but not on the Brexit thread.

https://www.englishforum.ch/internat...-indyref2.html

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's noise because she's asking for something that she know's she can't get.

Permission for a referendum? Pretty much every commentator and export has conceded that it is very unlikely May will deny this.

Win a referendum? The gap has narrowed and the political landscape has changed, so it would be foolish to make such predictions, even if such predictions were even possible so far advance of any referendum.

That the referendum takes place before negotiations end? Perhaps, but I'm not sure why this suddenly makes it all noise. Can you explain?

So what is this something she can't get?

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Permission for a referendum? Pretty much every commentator and export has conceded that it is very unlikely May will deny this. Win a referendum? The gap has narrowed and the political landscape has changed, so it would be foolish to make such predictions, even if such predictions were even possible so far advance of any referendum. That the referendum takes place before negotiations end? Perhaps, but I'm not sure why this suddenly makes it all noise. Can you explain? So what is this something she can't get?

She will not get a referendum until Brexit has happened in 2019. Downing street will also most likely ask for a mandate for the referendum in the form of a Scottish Parliament election, this isn't due to happen until 2021. She want's a referendum in 2018-2019. It's not going to happen. It's just noise.