The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[xynth]

	Quote:	Artax
	Because as the second largest net contributor to the EU budget, most of the other countries would rather the UK stayed in. Also it sounds rather undemocratic; Only Scottish residents were able to vote in their referendum as it was determining the destiny of the place where they live. Which in your case, is a non-EU state.

Oh I support their right to vote on it and I support their right to exit the union. But then I would support measures from the union to impose the same rules on the UK as the rest of the world when it comes to access to the internal EU markets. I don't think the "special rules for special countries" that the UK and Switzerland get are going to fly long term. It is nice while it lasts, but it is going to disappear. Non-homogeneous tax and legal regimes are not in the interest of big power blocks and thus I'd fully expect that at one point there'll be an ultimatum.

	Quote:	Artax
	The USA and China are Japan's biggest trading partners. Does that mean they have to have a political union to get along? Chinese judges interfering in US legal cases? The US dictating Japan's asylum policies?

That's entirely different. They are trading partners, but let's not forget that all three are much bigger economies than individual EU countries. You can't compare any of the three countries you mention to the UK (or any EU member). What you could compare it to is say a single US state. Let's say California. I'd argue that over the whole, the individual states in the US have greatly benefited from the union. Sure, some of them are net contributors to the federal budget, and some are net beneficiaries. However, the massive internal free market is undeniably an incredible boon and is rivaled only by the likes of China. It does require fairly close integration though, otherwise it just won't work.

UK has a very strongly service based economy concentrated strongly in London. I can tell you that plans are already being considered to relocate in case things start to turn sour. How long do you think the London miracle would last if the money starts flowing out? The London housing market is in a bubble even bigger than what was before 2008.

This is not about worst case scenarios here. Any prospect of instability is bad and so even if the UK can in the end negotiate individual agreements with EU members states after a Brexit, the benefit of these has to be weighed very carefully against the cost of destabilizing all the current business relationships. Many of these relationships exist because of favorable legal climate AND very good access to the mainland EU economies. If that access is jeopardized, or even just possibly jeopardized, big businesses will start looking at greener pastures.

I've been working in the financial industry for a number of years now. I don't claim to know how the world works, and I don't claim to be an expert on geopolitics or economics. It is all far too complex for any person on earth today to understand. However, I like to think that I have some insight into the industry and the only thing I can say for sure is that I haven't got the faintest clue as to what sort of impact a potential Brexit would have. People in finance get skittish when they don't know what to expect. Uncertainty is the ultimate enemy. Known bad news is no longer bad, it is only the question of solutions. Uncertainty is what kills you.

So here we have a situation where nobody really knows what can happen, so nobody can properly judge whether the cost of Brexit is going to be outweighed by the long term benefits. We can't even judge whether there are really going to be any benefits! We do know that UK and every European country are tiny in the global politics and they could have a much bigger voice if they stick together.

Europe needs to stay together to prosper. The combined economic potential of Europe is immense, if only we weren't a bunch of block headed, prideful and irrational nutjobs

	Quote:	xynth
	Oh I support their right to vote on it and I support their right to exit the union. But then I would support measures from the union to impose the same rules on the UK as the rest of the world when it comes to access to the internal EU markets. I don't think the "special rules for special countries" that the UK and Switzerland get are going to fly long term. It is nice while it lasts, but it is going to disappear. Non-homogeneous tax and legal regimes are not in the interest of big power blocks and thus I'd fully expect that at one point there'll be an ultimatum.

I assumed the EU will vote on the UK package first to ratify it before giving it to the UK. But I know, you're probably use to the bureaucrats deciding things unilaterally by now.

Conversely, they really ought to give everyone the same deal. In other words, redefine what EU membership is altogether.

This whole thing can fall apart in this process, rendering a Brexit vote moot.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	I assumed the EU will vote on the UK package first to ratify it before giving it to the UK. But I know, you're probably use to the bureaucrats deciding things unilaterally by now. Conversely, they really ought to give everyone the same deal. In other words, redefine what EU membership is altogether. This whole thing can fall apart in this process, rendering a Brexit vote moot.

There was a time that Britain was the only country whose leaders would openly critcize the EU. Thanks to Merkel's currency and asylum policies, there are now quite a few other countries who would gladly see a weaker EU.

I used to think that Britain was a major anti-EU force. Now i see that the EU's greatest enemy is pretending to be its architect.

	Quote:
	Just a question- as it is very much in the news in the UK- how many expats here claim child benefit for children still in the UK. Who pays it? And what is the difference for child-benefit in CH and in the UK, amount-wise?

Happy to do some research- but in the meantime, does anyone here have the answers?

How much is child benefit in the UK?

How much in CH?

Who pays if parent lives and works in CH and kids back in UK? Apparently there was quite a hoohaa in the UK some time ago, as it was publicised that people who work in Switzerland but have kids in the UK, would have to be paid child benefit, by reciprocal arrangement, by the UK tax payer at a much higher rate than locals, as CH CB is much higher. People were up in arms about this, as expats are considered (fairly most of the time) to have much higher salaries. Can't find a link to this effect though.

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	Artax
	From 'Flexcit': EFTA membership for the UK would have its own advantages, allowing it to tap into extensive consultation arrangements with the EU,without having to develop entirely new structures. If desired, it would also give it access to thefree trade areas to which the Association is party. Furthermore, the resultwould be a significant trading group, putting it fourth in the world league after China ($3,642bn) and ahead of Japan ($1,678bn).What might be termed,"EFTA-plus UK" would be a significant global player.

I don't deny that, what I doubt is that when we've 'got divorced' (left the EU) the other party will be happy to still be 'friends with benefits' (stay in/rejoin EFTA).

[lewton]

So a UK outside the EU would probably opt for EFTA but not EEA membership?

[Troublawesome]

I would suspect they get the same deals Switzerland got, maybe better.

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	lewton
	So a UK outside the EU would probably opt for EFTA but not EEA membership?

The other members of EFTA would have agree, as Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are all a lot more economically stable (I have no idea about Liechtenstein) so I doubt they will. EEA is now the EU btw.

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	I would suspect they get the same deals Switzerland got, maybe better.

Why?

[Belgianmum]

	Quote:
	Happy to do some research- but in the meantime, does anyone here have the answers? How much is child benefit in the UK? How much in CH? Who pays if parent lives and works in CH and kids back in UK? Apparently there was quite a hoohaa in the UK some time ago, as it was publicised that people who work in Switzerland but have kids in the UK, would have to be paid child benefit, by reciprocal arrangement, by the UK tax payer at a much higher rate than locals, as CH CB is much higher. People were up in arms about this, as expats are considered (fairly most of the time) to have much higher salaries. Can't find a link to this effect though.

I have no idea how much the uk child allowance is these days.

In Switzerland it varies from canton to canton. The minimum is 200chf per child.
In Neuchâtel it is 220 chf per child under 16 and 300chf per child over 16 in full time education or doing an apprenticeship. ( up to the age of 25 maximum)

For a parent working in Switzerland with kids in the uk it also depends on the circumstances. If one parent is in the uk and claiming child benefit for the kids there then Switzerland will top up the amount to make the total equivalent to the Swiss rate ( Swiss child benefit is higher than uk one). If nobody is claiming child benefit for the child in the UK then the parent working in Switzerland will get the full Swiss amount paid by the Swiss.

Not sure how this is actually relevant to the discussion though. Switzerland isn't part of the EU.

[lost_inbroad]

I consider the EU a pipe-dream which was brought into place to emulate or even compete with the mighty US and some Asian nations. This being said, apart from using the same currency which in reality only simplified the B2B and tourist transactions and the fact that one doesn't have to show his/her passport, whenever he/she may travel across EU borders, the entire concept is an utter failure. Along with the Netherlands, I consider the UK the strongest member of the union and I can see definite advantages, if the UK were to leave the EU. The UK can do well without being a member of the EU and still enjoy the few benefits of being a European country (facilitated trading agreements, proximity to the continent, etc.).

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	lost_inbroad
	I consider the EU a pipe-dream which was brought into place to emulate or even compete with the mighty US and some Asian nations. This being said, apart from using the same currency which in reality only simplified the B2B and tourist transactions and the fact that one doesn't have to show his/her passport, whenever he/she may travel across EU borders, the entire concept is an utter failure. Along with the Netherlands, I consider the UK the strongest member of the union and I can see definite advantages, if the UK were to leave the EU. The UK can do well without being a member of the EU and still enjoy the few benefits of being a European country (facilitated trading agreements, proximity to the continent, etc.).

Seriously, why do people think this? If we walk off in a huff why on earth would we still get facilitated trading agreements etc? How many divorced people do you know that still share a costco card?

[FunnyBone]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	In Switzerland it varies from canton to canton. The minimum is 200chf per child. In Neuchâtel it is 220 chf per child under 16 and 300chf per child over 16 in full time education or doing an apprenticeship. ( up to the age of 25 maximum).

Parents who are on AHV/IV and are not working do not receive child benefits if their income is over a certain amount.

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	Seriously, why do people think this? If we walk off in a huff why on earth would we still get facilitated trading agreements etc? How many divorced people do you know that still share a costco card?

It would be ridiculous and absurd to get into a trade war with your neighbor, especially when you publicly proclaim yourself to be for free trade and openness. Should the EU do so if one of its members were to exit, it's all off at that point and it will not have any standing whatsoever.

[lost_inbroad]

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	Seriously, why do people think this? If we walk off in a huff why on earth would we still get facilitated trading agreements etc? How many divorced people do you know that still share a costco card?

Because the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

You'd be quite surprised how many divorced people are still sharing a Costco card.."facilitated benefits" are the keywords here.

[lewton]

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	The other members of EFTA would have agree, as Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are all a lot more economically stable (I have no idea about Liechtenstein) so I doubt they will. EEA is now the EU btw.

No it's not.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro...de_Association

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	The other members of EFTA would have agree, as Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are all a lot more economically stable (I have no idea about Liechtenstein) so I doubt they will. EEA is now the EU btw.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	lost_inbroad
	Because the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

The U.K. has not played a leading role in any of the EU crisis over the last 10 years or so, it has not made any significant contribution to the various bailouts and it's contribution to the annual budget is likely to be off set by the additional import tariffs it would have to pay after exiting.

Yes the EU members would prefer the UK would remain in the Union, but the various leaders have made it clear that they are not willing to do it at all costs. And the Greek crisis last summer changed the mind set about seeing a member go.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	It would be ridiculous and absurd to get into a trade war with your neighbor, especially when you publicly proclaim yourself to be for free trade and openness. Should the EU do so if one of its members were to exit, it's all off at that point and it will not have any standing whatsoever.

Yes, but it is not that straight forward! If the UK gives notice of it's intention to leave, it's got 18 months to negotiate any treaties it needs before it joins the queue of third countries seeking trade agreements. But the treaties must be negotiated with the EU as a whole and any member can veto such agreements. And given that the Eastern members will benefit very little from such arrangements it's a fair bet that one of them will use the veto.

My guess is that the UK would get some kind of agreement, but they would have to contribute billions each year to the structural fund each year.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Artax
	Please don't smear people who have been campaigning / are in favour of brexit with the same brush as populists. There are many people who have been working on the political and legal problems surrounding the UK's membership of the EU for decades, and it is not simply a right-wing or populist area of political activism.

Oh I know it's not! Question is, what's going to be presented to the voting public in the run up to the vote? Do you trust the media to present a fair, rational and balanced debate, or do you think it will be drowned out by the scum?