The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	She will not get a referendum until Brexit has happened in 2019. Downing street will also most likely ask for a mandate for the referendum in the form of a Scottish Parliament election, this isn't due to happen until 2021. She want's a referendum in 2018-2019. It's not going to happen. It's just noise.

But she'll still get a referendum and one in a political landscape that has changed more in favour of it passing and so this will inevitably influence negotiations. So at best it would weaken the UK's position less than if she got it at a time of her choosing, but still weaken it nonetheless.

That's a bit more than just noise, I'm afraid.

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	Seems unlikely, her MO is seeking independence, so not sure why doing so would damage her in the eyes of the people that want it. There are plenty of disaffected labour voters who said NO last time who will surely be shifting towards YES, the polls are already confirming this, they are at parity for the first time.

Failing for a second time and causing such a scene doing it will be the end of her political career imo, she will alienate a lot of people and she is no charismatic demagogue like Farage is. Nothing positive in the long-term is to be gained by a Scottish independence and break-up of the UK at this stage. While many people were understandably unhappy about Brexit, the UK as a whole can be self-sufficient outside of Europe. Scotland as a single entity is, according to just about every analysis I have read, not capable of being economically self-sufficient, and the fact that Sturgeon would happily lead the country to ruin in her fanaticism should be a cause of concern for everyone.

[marton]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Failing for a second time and causing such a scene doing it will be the end of her political career imo, she will alienate a lot of people and she is no charismatic demagogue like Farage is. Nothing positive in the long-term is to be gained by a Scottish independence and break-up of the UK at this stage. While many people were understandably unhappy about Brexit, the UK as a whole can be self-sufficient outside of Europe. Scotland as a single entity is, according to just about every analysis I have read, not capable of being economically self-sufficient, and the fact that Sturgeon would happily lead the country to ruin in her fanaticism should be a cause of concern for everyone.

"the UK as a whole can be self-sufficient outside of Europe" Of course,
but successful? stronger economy than before? higher employment?
Who knows?

"Sturgeon would happily lead the country to ruin in her fanaticism" No different than Farage, Boris, &&&&

[catandmouse]

	Quote:	marton
	If Scotland leaves and N. Ireland joins Eire then they will have to change the name to "non-United Kingdom"

or the "Untied Kingdom"

	Quote:	Chuff
	Failing for a second time and causing such a scene doing it will be the end of her political career imo, she will alienate a lot of people and she is no charismatic demagogue like Farage is. Nothing positive in the long-term is to be gained by a Scottish independence and break-up of the UK at this stage. While many people were understandably unhappy about Brexit, the UK as a whole can be self-sufficient outside of Europe. Scotland as a single entity is, according to just about every analysis I have read, not capable of being economically self-sufficient, and the fact that Sturgeon would happily lead the country to ruin in her fanaticism should be a cause of concern for everyone.

Moving the goalposts of the question there a bit. The previous question (unless I misread) was suggesting that calling for the second referendum was ruining her reputation and standing.

Of course, if she ends up on the losing side, she'll be toast, as Salmond was previously.

[newtoswitz]

	Quote:
	Of course, if she ends up on the losing side, she'll be toast, as Salmond was previously.

Of course being on the winning side and having to negotiate joining the EU and find a big chunk of investment to replace the UK subsidy wouldn't be so easy either - look at the catchily named "Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union", that was a masterful golden kick in the nuts for David Davis.

I guess you'd have a "Scottish Minister for Rejoining the European Union" and a "Scottish Minister for Finding Something to Replace the Barnett Formula", or something...

	Quote:	newtoswitz
	Of course being on the winning side and having to negotiate joining the EU and find a big chunk of investment to replace the UK subsidy wouldn't be so easy either - look at the catchily named "Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union", that was a masterful golden kick in the nuts for David Davis. I guess you'd have a "Scottish Minister for Rejoining the European Union" and a "Scottish Minister for Finding Something to Replace the Barnett Formula", or something...

I suspect both those will be combined into the new role of "Minister for getting it right up the sassenachs".

[newtoswitz]

	Quote:
	I suspect both those will be combined into the new role of "Minister for getting it right up the sassenachs".

I don't think Nicola will ever give that one up

	Quote:	marton
	If Scotland leaves and N. Ireland joins Eire then they will have to change the name to "non-United Kingdom"

Aka literally Little Britain

So who is playing the most stupid game of politics - Sturgeon or May? May's condescending comment to Sturgeon about 'politics is not a game' has swung back to bite here on the derrière very hard today on Twitter and FB, and the media in general. Sinn Fein woman told her in Brussels ' stick your border where the sun don't shine, we ain't having it' O)

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	newtoswitz
	Of course being on the winning side and having to negotiate joining the EU and find a big chunk of investment to replace the UK subsidy wouldn't be so easy either - look at the catchily named "Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union", that was a masterful golden kick in the nuts for David Davis. I guess you'd have a "Scottish Minister for Rejoining the European Union" and a "Scottish Minister for Finding Something to Replace the Barnett Formula", or something...

They don't necessarily need to rejoin the EU to get the access they need. They could always simply apply for EEA membership. They would not need to take on the Euro and as most of the legal framework is already included in Scottish law the move would be easy.

If they were to vote for an exit, then the negotiations could go on in parallel to the BREXIT ones. It could get very interesting....

[marton]

	Quote:
	Theresa May expected to tour UK in effort to forge Brexit consensus

Source

I assume they put a lot of thought into selecting the most appropriate verb?

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	Moving the goalposts of the question there a bit. The previous question (unless I misread) was suggesting that calling for the second referendum was ruining her reputation and standing. Of course, if she ends up on the losing side, she'll be toast, as Salmond was previously.

I'm of course taking into account my firm belief that she will lose. Happy to eat my hat otherwise.

EDIT - Looks like she's not having a good time...

-------------------------

Scots apparently largely Eurosceptic... https://www.theguardian.com/politics...icola-sturgeon

Suppoert from Westminster lacking... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7630291.html

EU not offering much help... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...despite-charm/

-------------------------

So what she may be pushing for in the end is an independent Scotland that is not a member of the EU. Disastrous.

	Quote:	Chuff
	I'm of course taking into account my firm belief that she will lose. Happy to eat my hat otherwise. EDIT - Looks like she's not having a good time... ------------------------- Scots apparently largely Eurosceptic... https://www.theguardian.com/politics...icola-sturgeon Suppoert from Westminster lacking... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7630291.html EU not offering much help... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...despite-charm/ ------------------------- So what she may be pushing for in the end is an independent Scotland that is not a member of the EU. Disastrous.

I thought it was disastrous if we became a member of the EU (as mentioned elsewhere on here). This just shows the lack of joined up thinking and vitriol (not from you) aimed north. The only consistent thing is that rUK desperately don't want to lose us.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Yes, just seen that over on the Beeb website.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-39265997

Wouldn't that be funny if she got independence and then Scotland voted against any EU new deal she signed up for.

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Yes, just seen that over on the Beeb website. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-39265997 Wouldn't that be funny if she got independence and then Scotland voted against any EU new deal she signed up for.

It would be completely fine...that's what self-determination is about.

People would be voting for an (ongoing!) independent Scotland, not for EU membership, not for the SNP and not for Nicola Sturgeon.

What would we do with the newfound independence? That would be an ecumenical matter

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	I thought it was disastrous if we became a member of the EU (as mentioned elsewhere on here). This just shows the lack of joined up thinking and vitriol (not from you) aimed north. The only consistent thing is that rUK desperately don't want to lose us.

Scotland not joining the EU within a reasonable space of time if it gained independence means it would be cut off from all of the added benefits it brings to smaller countries, and I think Scotland would need those to avoid a real slump.

In my mind the UK is one living entity and I genuinely can't imagine it without Scotland, Wales or Ireland. Some of my favourite people in this world are Scots and I love the culture, the wry humour, and for-the-most-part-friendly rivalry that exists between all of us. I think that Scotland leaving the UK would not only be a disaster in economic terms and quality of life for the Scottish people, but it would also be like breaking up a family with historic ties so deep that things would never be the same again. The UK leaving the EU is one thing, there is no real love there and it was always more akin to a mutually beneficial (mostly, but not always) partnership that was engineered in recent times, but Scotland leaving the UK is another thing entirely and in my view affects the very fabric of our society.

[dawiz]

	Quote:	Chuff
	In my mind the UK is one living entity and I genuinely can't imagine it without Scotland, Wales or Ireland. Some of my favourite people in this world are Scots and I love the culture, the wry humour, and for-the-most-part-friendly rivalry that exists between all of us. I think that Scotland leaving the UK would not only be a disaster in economic terms and quality of life for the Scottish people, but it would also be like breaking up a family with historic ties so deep that things would never be the same again. The UK leaving the EU is one thing, there is no real love there and it was always more akin to a mutually beneficial (mostly, but not always) partnership that was engineered in recent times, but Scotland leaving the UK is another thing entirely and in my view affects the very fabric of our society.

In my mind, the EU is one living entity and I genuinely can't imagine it without the UK. Some of my favourite people in this world are from the UK and I love the culture, the wry humour and for-the-most-part-friendly rivalry that exists between all of of us. I think that the UK leaving the EU would not only be a disaster in economic terms and quality of life for the people in the UK, but it would also be like breaking up a family with historic ties so deep that things would never be the same again.


You do know, that the rest of the EU felt that way about the UK before Brexit as well, right? The UK didn't give a crap. And I don't see why Scotland should now. Personally, as an EU and Swiss citizen, I was (and still am) shocked by the UK leaving. But frankly, the amount of bigotry, stupidity, hatred and xenophobia I've seen in the UK (all the way up to your head of state) since the vote probably doesn't sit well with the Scots and the Irish. If the UK actually stopped behaving like a spoiled little brat, perhaps its neighbours and friends wouldn't want to turn their backs on it.

	Quote:	dawiz
	But frankly, the amount of bigotry, stupidity, hatred and xenophobia I've seen in the UK (all the way up to your head of state) since the vote probably doesn't sit well with the Scots and the Irish.

Snork.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Snork.

There's a shedload of old firm bigotry, one side British (English) leaning, one side Irish leaning, neither side Scottish leaning. That banner pretty much sums one side of it up nicely.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	dawiz
	You do know, that the rest of the EU felt that way about the UK before Brexit as well, right?

You are comparing an institution that has existed for less than 50 years, with a symbiotic partnership (however unfair at times) that has existed for centuries. It is imo nothing alike.

	Quote:	dawiz
	The UK didn't give a crap. And I don't see why Scotland should now. Personally, as an EU and Swiss citizen, I was (and still am) shocked by the UK leaving. But frankly, the amount of bigotry, stupidity, hatred and xenophobia I've seen in the UK (all the way up to your head of state) since the vote probably doesn't sit well with the Scots and the Irish. If the UK actually stopped behaving like a spoiled little brat, perhaps its neighbours and friends wouldn't want to turn their backs on it.

We'll have to agree to disagree on some of that. Out of interest, where are you from within the EU originally?