The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Chuff
	Scotland not joining the EU within a reasonable space of time if it gained independence means it would be cut off from all of the added benefits it brings to smaller countries, and I think Scotland would need those to avoid a real slump. In my mind the UK is one living entity and I genuinely can't imagine it without Scotland, Wales or Ireland. Some of my favourite people in this world are Scots and I love the culture, the wry humour, and for-the-most-part-friendly rivalry that exists between all of us. I think that Scotland leaving the UK would not only be a disaster in economic terms and quality of life for the Scottish people, but it would also be like breaking up a family with historic ties so deep that things would never be the same again. The UK leaving the EU is one thing, there is no real love there and it was always more akin to a mutually beneficial (mostly, but not always) partnership that was engineered in recent times, but Scotland leaving the UK is another thing entirely and in my view affects the very fabric of our society.

I fully agree that upon Indy, our best bet economically, safety wise etc would be to join the EU (presuming no Scandi-arc alliance on the table).

The stuff you mention afterwards won't change though, your Scottish pals will still be your Scottish pals, we'll still have a friendly rivalry at sports.
There isn't a binary flip switch that says if we leave we'll all immediately start hating all things British. After the initial turmoil, I honestly don't think too much will change society wise...we aren't severing ourselves from the mainland to go and dock off the Hamburg coast, we'll still be your northern neighbours, will still have people and goods moving between the countries, but we'll just have a bigger say on what's going on locally.

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	After the initial turmoil, I honestly don't think too much will change society wise... we'll still be your northern neighbours, will still have people and goods moving between the countries, but we'll just have a bigger say on what's going on locally.

Snipping out the unnecessary bits, I think that overall the relationship and dynamic between England and Scotland will surely change if it gains independence, and I personally don't believe for the better. Ultimately the union would be broken and ties would loosen, and I firmly believe we would both be poorer for it.

Anyway, speculation aside, I simply don't think it's going to happen.

	Quote:	Chuff
	Snipping out the unnecessary bits, I think that overall the relationship and dynamic between England and Scotland will surely change if it gains independence, and I personally don't believe for the better. Ultimately the union would be broken and ties would loosen, and I firmly believe we would both be poorer for it. Anyway, speculation aside, I simply don't think it's going to happen.

Come on mate, you know what they say...if you love someone, set them free

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	Come on mate, you know what they say...if you love someone, set them free

Hah but... but... I don't want toooo... *weeps uncontrollably while clutching at leg*

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Chuff
	You are comparing an institution that has existed for less than 50 years, with a symbiotic partnership (however unfair at times) that has existed for centuries. It is imo nothing alike.

Yes, the EU did not come about as a result of an accident of birth.

The problem with nationalism is that it is many countries are historical inventions, just as abstract as the EU if you want to look at it objectively. Fortunately nationalism tends not to encourage that style of analysis.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Yes, the EU did not come about as a result of an accident of birth. The problem with nationalism is that it is many countries are historical inventions, just as abstract as the EU if you want to look at it objectively. Fortunately nationalism tends not to encourage that style of analysis.

Do you not mean "Unfortunately" in that sentence?

For me the basic problem with nationalism is that it so frequently ends in war. There has not (so far at least) been a war between two EU member states in its 60 years, something that you couldn't say very often in the centuries before.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:
	Do you not mean "Unfortunately" in that sentence? For me the basic problem with nationalism is that it so frequently ends in war.

Nationalism, just like other strategies, be they the divine right of kings (which preceded nationalism and gave us the UK), religion, class revolution or good old fashioned bread and circuses are just a means to keep the mob controlled, placated and open to suggestion - nationalism is just one of several means by which people end at war, but not why we do.

	Quote:
	There has not (so far at least) been a war between two EU member states in its 60 years, something that you couldn't say very often in the centuries before.

With the close the Napoleonic wars in 1815 you could say much the same for almost the subsequent hundred years. German and Italian unification saw a few minor conflicts and there were a few civil wars, but the European nations were pretty much at peace with each other.

Almost a hundred years, of course - that peace ended in 1914 and we all know how.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	..Nationalism is just one of several means by which people end at war, but not why we do.

This.

There are those who will interpret nationalism as "superiority". Then those who will see nationalism as "caring for one's nation". I think when people debate, they need to make clear they are on the same page as per terminology. I do not, btw, know anyone who considers their nation to be superior to anybody else's. It seems definitely to be an unintelligent idea.

When 1914 and 1938 get mentioned, I always have a thought at the back of my head that links Merkel's open door policy with German dark history. A stigma to overcome.

Back to "make love, not war".

So David Davis, sweating, bloated, looking like he hasn't slept in weeks- admits today that the Government has made NO PLANS WHATSOEVER in case the UK is not able to get a deal from EU- and that it thinks tariffs of 10% for the care industry, and 40% for agriculture, etc- would be 'about right'.

You really couldn't make that stuff up

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	So David Davis, sweating, bloated, looking like he hasn't slept in weeks- admits today that the Government has made NO PLANS WHATSOEVER in case the UK is not able to get a deal from EU- and that it thinks tariffs of 10% for the care industry, and 40% for agriculture, etc- would be 'about right'. You really couldn't make that stuff up

What needs to be planned? We know what WTO tariffs are, EU is about politics & protectionism not free trade.

[marton]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Nationalism, just like other strategies, be they the divine right of kings (which preceded nationalism and gave us the UK), religion, class revolution or good old fashioned bread and circuses are just a means to keep the mob controlled, placated and open to suggestion - nationalism is just one of several means by which people end at war, but not why we do. With the close the Napoleonic wars in 1815 you could say much the same for almost the subsequent hundred years. German and Italian unification saw a few minor conflicts and there were a few civil wars, but the European nations were pretty much at peace with each other. Almost a hundred years, of course - that peace ended in 1914 and we all know how.

"The European nations were pretty much at peace with each other and there were a few civil war."
If you say so

There was some sort of civil war or revolution almost every year plus larger conflicts (details)

1823 French invasion of Spain
1861–62 Montenegrin–Ottoman War (1861–62)
1866 Austro-Prussian War
1870–1871 Franco-Prussian War
1876–78 Serbian–Ottoman War (1876–78)
1876–78 Montenegrin–Ottoman War (1876–78)
1885 Serbo-Bulgarian War
1897 Greco–Turkish War

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	What needs to be planned? We know what WTO tariffs are, EU is about politics & protectionism not free trade.

"We know what WTO tariffs are," Do we? Do you have a source for what WTO tariffs are agreed for UK trade?

Why the “WTO option” for Brexit will prove tricky!
Setting new, independent tariffs and quotas will be a tortuous process
Source

WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said that instead of the promised clean break, pulling out of the EU would plunge not just Britain but also Brussels into lengthy talks with the rest of the WTO as the two newly divorced economies would both need to rejig their relationships with the rest of the world.

"It is very likely that both the EU and the UK will have to negotiate with all WTO members," Azevedo said.
Source

So not only will farmers and meat producers not get the massive subsidies from the EU, on top they will have to pay 30 to 40% tariffs to export their meat.
That will be simple then

[marton]

	Quote:
	So not only will farmers and meat producers not get the massive subsidies from the EU, on top they will have to pay 30 to 40% tariffs to export their meat. That will be simple then

And the UK consumers will see the same tariffs impacting imported food prices

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	So not only will farmers and meat producers not get the massive subsidies from the EU, on top they will have to pay 30 to 40% tariffs to export their meat. That will be simple then

I don't believe in subsidies to or any other business, how is that a 'free' market.

Tarifs are paid by importers not exporters, being that your neighbours are customs officials I would have thought you might know this. Your well aware of the limit on importing meat to CH. Those import tariffs don't stop the Swiss buying foreign meat in CH.

[marton]

U-turn over Budget plan to increase National Insurance

Source

And this is the chaotic circus that we rely on to negotiate a good Brexit deal for us?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	What needs to be planned? We know what WTO tariffs are, EU is about politics & protectionism not free trade.

I can only assume this is not a serious comment. Do you really think that no-one needs to think about the impact of 10%-40% tariffs on the UK economy? Do you really think no-one needs to think about the impact of non-tariff barriers on EU trade? Do you really think no*one needs to think about the implications of a hard customs border to the EU and what that means for customs clearance procedures?

At the very least they would need to build a 50 mile parking lane on the M2 and M20.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't believe in subsidies to or any other business, how is that a 'free' market. Tarifs are paid by importers not exporters, being that your neighbours are customs officials I would have thought you might know this. Your well aware of the limit on importing meat to CH. Those import tariffs don't stop the Swiss buying foreign meat in CH.

"Those import tariffs don't stop the Swiss buying foreign meat in CH." This is because local Swiss meat has astronomic prices!

Quick google search;
Rump steak Coop 100g CHF 8.96
Rump Steak Tesco 100g £1.54 (say CHF 1.90)

Even with a 40% tariff British rump steak would still be less than a third of Swiss prices

[Aeneas]

So the Ottoman Empire was considered European? And the bit where I did qualify my statement with "German and Italian unification saw a few minor conflicts and there were a few civil wars"? Which leaves us with:

1823 French invasion of Spain (although this was part of a civil war)
1885 Serbo-Bulgarian War
1897 Greco–Turkish War

Which (even if you include the one's you omitted) comfortably fall into a "few minor conflicts". Indeed, the list of conflicts you give is about the same length as it has been since the founding of the treaty of Rome - so while the EU has helped the cause of European peace, I would not get too smug about it either and presume that this is why we've had such a long period of relative peace.

If you disagree with me, I suggest you google the European State System and perhaps the foreign policies of Bismark too or look at the various conflicts we've seen in the last sixty years.

	Quote:	marton
	"Those import tariffs don't stop the Swiss buying foreign meat in CH." This is because local Swiss meat has astronomic prices! Quick google search; Rump steak Coop 100g CHF 8.96 Rump Steak Tesco 100g £1.54 (say CHF 1.90) Even with a 40% tariff British rump steak would still be less than a third of Swiss prices

but not so much French or Spanish, or Polish ...

Totally different kettle of fish, meat and everything else. This is what is being proposed, the UK having to pay tariffs for the privilege of exporting to EU. Switzerland has to pay a fortune to export to EU, has to abide by all the EU regs to do so, has had to agree to free movement of people, whilst not having any say in Brussels. The whole point of a agreed, reciprocal single market is that it is not a free market. How anyone can compare this to buying a steak over the border, si so bizarre.