The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983

That looks very much like the UK at the moment apart that I can't see TM

	Quote:	marton
	Actually you did account for this but you got it wrong, badly wrong - see below

Wrong once, but called Trump and Brexit. Two out of three ain't bad. At least I admit it, you still think Malmo is a multicultural paradigm.

[Castro]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Socially liberal" Dutch PM tells immigrants: ‘Act normal or go away’

The Moroccan Muslim mayor of Rotterdam went a step further, telling them to 'Eff off'

[marton]

	Quote:
	Very nice to see that largely pro EU parties in the Netherlands are on their way to nicely spank the PVV. I'm sure I remember the alt-right faction on here promising us Wilders lot would be the largest party and the Netherlands heading for the EU exit door

Very convincing result with a turn out of over 80%, go Holland!!

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Wrong once, but called Trump and Brexit. Two out of three ain't bad. At least I admit it, you still think Malmo is a multicultural paradigm.

My Swedish friend who has lived in Malmo for many years is always posting positive news in Facebook about Malmo as part of his personal anti alt-right campaign like this.

Of course you know better from sensational newspapers and blogs

Have you ever visited Malmo? I have!

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Switzerland imposes an extremely high tariff, yet is the most successful country in Europe, despite not being a member of the EU.

I thought the issue is access to the common market, not being a member of the EU or not?

	Quote:
	Edit - Loz at least, although on another thread:

There's three or four virulently anti-EU posters in this discussion. I only say virulently because it has resulted repeatedly in some pretty dubious claims as a result, based on straw-men (see example above) or questionable sources (see example below). Whether this is because of a need for confirmation bias or a deliberate attempt to deceive is another question.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Lol, yes I posted that, based on bookies odds and polling 4 weeks ago.

You know, you could have save us a lot of time giving any credence to your predictions if you just admitted in the first place that you were doing your geopolitical research at Ladbrokes. You will warn us if your source is the Bible, in future?

	Quote:	Aeneas
	There's three or four virulently anti-EU posters in this discussion. I only say virulently because it has resulted repeatedly in some pretty dubious claims as a result, based on straw-men (see example above) or questionable sources (see example below). Whether this is because of a need for confirmation bias or a deliberate attempt to deceive is another question. You know, you could have save us a lot of time giving any credence to your predictions if you just admitted in the first place that you were doing your geopolitical research at Ladbrokes. You will warn us if your source is the Bible, in future?

You can sneer at bookmakers all you want, but the truth of the matter is that they're a very good barometer of predicting the outcome of what will happen. Sometimes they get it wrong (a la Brexit), but most of the time they get it right.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Sometimes they get it wrong (a la Brexit), but most of the time they get it right.

I take it that they get it right most of the time is written in some holy book somewhere?

Am I enjoying today too much?

“A must-watch for #Brexit enthusiasts https://t.co/wg0vW1LAOj

From the horse's mouth- as it were- re tariffs on agriculture, etc, border with Eire and NI, financial sector, EHIC card and more- David Davis is squirming, as he has NOT got a clue- and none of them have, not one little bit of a clue- zilch, rien, de nada, nichts! *iss up ... brewery... not!

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	I take it that they get it right most of the time is written in some holy book somewhere?

No it's that they are successful businesses and their business is predicting outcomes.

It's remarkable, only in modern Europe can a FAR RIGHT party come second in a General Election and it be hailed as a victory for liberals.

People just aren't seeing the bigger picture. The PVV ran an explicitly anti-Islamisation campaign. These issues are normally marginal in elections, now it's the central political battle ground. The VVD only "won" by presenting themselves as PVV light. If the PVV weren't there then there would have been outrage at what Rutte said.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	I take it that they get it right most of the time is written in some holy book somewhere?

what

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's remarkable, only in modern Europe can a FAR RIGHT party come second in a General Election and it be hailed as a victory for liberals. People just aren't seeing the bigger picture. The PVV ran an explicitly anti-Islamisation campaign. These issues are normally marginal in elections, now it's the central political battle ground. The VVD only "won" by presenting themselves as PVV light. If the PVV weren't there then there would have been outrage at what Rutte said.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's remarkable, only in modern Europe can a FAR RIGHT party come second in a General Election and it be hailed as a victory for liberals. People just aren't seeing the bigger picture. The PVV ran an explicitly anti-Islamisation campaign. These issues are normally marginal in elections, now it's the central political battle ground. The VVD only "won" by presenting themselves as PVV light. If the PVV weren't there then there would have been outrage at what Rutte said.

Same as what happened in Austria. Everyone breathed a big sigh of relief after the second presidential election, and completely forgot the fact that a far-right candidate had come within a hair's breadth of the presidency.

Europe is full of ostriches at the moment, and it scares the juice out of me!

	Quote:
	“A must-watch for #Brexit enthusiasts https://t.co/wg0vW1LAOj From the horse's mouth- as it were- re tariffs on agriculture, etc, border with Eire and NI, financial sector, EHIC card and more- David Davis is squirming, as he has NOT got a clue- and none of them have, not one little bit of a clue- zilch, rien, de nada, nichts! *iss up ... brewery... not!

Indeed. David Cameron's government completely failed to prepare for the possibility that the people might actually vote for Brexit, and the result is a complete shambles.

The fault lies entirely with a complacent and incompetent political establishment (specifically, but not exclusively, the governing Tory party), not with the people who exercised their democratic right to vote for a proposition with which they were presented.

You don't offer your guests a choice of chips or rice, then complain that you didn't buy any potatoes when the guests choose chips.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Mikers
	No it's that they are successful businesses and their business is predicting outcomes.

Actually, their business is not actually predicting outcomes. It's maximizing profit which is not simply a function of the outcome, but is also based on how people wager. It's the mathematics of probability.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	what

Just noting you're pulling claims out of your arse left right and centre at this stage. You made a claim that turns out to be based on the accuracy of bookies. Now you're making another claim on how accurate said bookie based on... another dubious source to back up your previous dubious source? Seriously.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's remarkable, only in modern Europe can a FAR RIGHT party come second in a General Election and it be hailed as a victory for liberals.

Oddly, I agree with you. This debate has become too partisan, too emotional. The Dutch PM and his party can only be called liberal in the same way Obama is a Communist (i.e. he can't in case that wasn't clear), but, as has been pointed out, you and your Kameraden have been coming out with some eye-watering BS too.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Actually, their business is not actually predicting outcomes. It's maximizing profit which is not simply a function of the outcome, but is also based on how people wager. It's the mathematics of probability.

There business is predicting outcomes. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to make this simple enough for you to understand.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Mikers
	There business is predicting outcomes. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to make this simple enough for you to understand.

Sorry, but you don't actually know what you're talking about. Read up on risk and probability. Maybe also learning about the concept of hedging might help you out. Outcome is a factor, but there's a lot more to maximising return on a wager - and as a business, that is what they do, not simply predict outcomes.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	“A must-watch for #Brexit enthusiasts https://t.co/wg0vW1LAOj From the horse's mouth- as it were- re tariffs on agriculture, etc, border with Eire and NI, financial sector, EHIC card and more- David Davis is squirming, as he has NOT got a clue- and none of them have, not one little bit of a clue- zilch, rien, de nada, nichts! *iss up ... brewery... not!

No doubt you will have to pay for Swiss Health Insurance for the first time like everybody else. You always complain about the pesky UK state pension but forget to add the extra 500 a month your saving on health premiums.