The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Phil_MCR]

Another take on the referendum: Out or Ever Closer Union. No status Quo.

https://medium.com/@octskyward/out-o...cdc#.7s2eocgl2

What do you think? I guess it does make sense to ask the question, given a United States of Europe, or Brexit, which would you go for?

Whether you think the referendum is a choice between these two choices is another matter. I think he is right and the illusion of the UK 'influencing from within' is a pipe-dream, but maybe some really do believe we can shift the rest of the EU members from their goal of ever closer union.

[Sbrinz]

If one has a democratic parliament the rules and laws are made and everyone has to keep to them. Under an EU leadership the rules and laws are made and everyone has to keep to them. Is there any difference?

Did anyone see the BBC programme last night? Paxman went to Brussels and asked some hard questions, and it seems much of the news coming out of Brussels was untrue (Bent bananas etc). Paxman was not sympathetic at all, and did show there are of course big differences between London & Brussels.
http://www.radiotimes.com/tv-program...eally-rules-us

The main difference is that after 5 years the democratic parliament is dissolved and the newly elected need to start again. Meanwhile after 5 years the EU keeps the professional leadership and they continue to develop the common EU policies. Personally I prefer continuous development rather than changing every 5 years.

I see the main problem is in the design of European management. The EU must find common ground for all countries with quite different cultures and climates, whereas tiny Britain doesn't have any problems with water supplies or growing olives, the southern countries do. Apparently Britain gets directives on olive growing, but these are just filed away ....

[Cornetto]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Another take on the referendum: Out or Ever Closer Union. No status Quo. https://medium.com/@octskyward/out-o...cdc#.7s2eocgl2 What do you think? I guess it does make sense to ask the question, given a United States of Europe, or Brexit, which would you go for? Whether you think the referendum is a choice between these two choices is another matter. I think he is right and the illusion of the UK 'influencing from within' is a pipe-dream, but maybe some really do believe we can shift the rest of the EU members from their goal of ever closer union.

I completely agree. It might all be well and good now with our opt-outs, but I don't think even the staunchest remainers want the level of integration that is on the cards in the long term. A superstate would presumably have a single currency, and I can think of no reason why Britain should ever want to adopt the Euro. At some point after a 'remain' vote our position as a less integrated member would become untenable and we would have to leave, probably on less favourable terms since the EU would likely remind us that we had voted to stay in already.

Having said that, I do wonder whether when push comes to shove the citizens of continental Europe would actually be happy the creation of a superstate and the inevitable cultural homogenisation that would result.

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	. Personally I prefer continuous development rather than changing every 5 years. .

I prefer a democratically elected government......not 26 un-elected commissionaires.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Stoker177
	I prefer a democratically elected government......not 26 un-elected commissionaires.

You might want to start with a written constitution that prevents the government from committing the UK to the EU in the first place, without consulting the people

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You might want to start with a written constitution that prevents the government from committing the UK to the EU in the first place, without consulting the people

United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Stoker177
	I prefer a democratically elected government......not 26 un-elected commissionaires.

Gee, what's this then?

http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutio...t/index_en.htm

http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/your-meps.html

Seems it's the European Commission that should be done away with.

Of course how many of us can even name our Euro MPs? Not that I can name my UK one either, but you know what I'm getting at. About the only reason the 2014 UK Euro election got any news coverage was because Farage was on a roll.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975

But that was not the EU, was it? The people have not been consulted on anything that has happened since.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But that was not the EU, was it? The people have not been consulted on anything that has happened since.

Just a name change; move on, nothing interesting here

[curley]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Gee, what's this then? http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutio...t/index_en.htm http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/your-meps.html Seems it's the European Commission that should be done away with. Of course how many of us can even name our Euro MPs? Not that I can name my UK one either, but you know what I'm getting at. About the only reason the 2014 UK Euro election got any news coverage was because Farage was on a roll.

They all showed up for the picture, usually these conference rooms are empty. But hey! They give you phone-numbers: <<For example, if you live in Cambridge, all seven Eastern region MEPs represent you and you can contact any or all of them. If you are not sure, please phone us on 020 7227 4300. >>

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Gee, what's this then? http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutio...t/index_en.htm http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/your-meps.html Seems it's the European Commission that should be done away with. Of course how many of us can even name our Euro MPs? Not that I can name my UK one either, but you know what I'm getting at. About the only reason the 2014 UK Euro election got any news coverage was because Farage was on a roll.

Nope, that is a completely different body....MEP's are indeed elected, but they don't make legislation or rules...they are dreamt up by the aforementioned 26 unelected commisionaires.

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Of course how many of us can even name our Euro MPs? Not that I can name my UK one either, but you know what I'm getting at. About the only reason the 2014 UK Euro election got any news coverage was because Farage was on a roll.

Yes I can indeed name mine, but then I take an interest in who supposedly governs us......I'm afraid it's typical of the public to take no interest; stay un-informed and then complain about their lot.......equally it's the politicians that have lacked inspiration and proper engagement with the public. After spending 20 years in British politics I don't miss it and it's in a parlous state....I have sought sanctuary in Switzerland! :-)

[Sbrinz]

Serious Swiss newspaper, writes "The divorce will be dirty" (Google translation)

http://www.derbund.ch/ausland/europa...story/29721363

This gives at least a taste: "Deserters are not welcomed with open arms," ​​European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday Friday in a newspaper interview to the address of the British. If the majority in the referendum on 23 June to decide on the withdrawal from the EU, will the United Kingdom to third countries with no claim to special treatment.

Finally, at the request of the government in London, the EU leaders have been dispensing advice to the British. Interference from Brussels could be counterproductive. But one, such as Juncker, can not be so quick to shut up. And then there are also voices that urge us to make the British the consequences of proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union in time significantly.

The biggest problem is how the EU would proceed with a No from Britain, this is fresh European Union territory. There is no blueprint for a divorce. What is clear is that a separation would be dirty and complex. Since the Lisbon Treaty on European Union, there are indeed at least the outlet Article 50. The untested mechanism for the voluntary and unilateral withdrawal of a country, but is there only vaguely described.

In a first step, the British government would put on the withdrawal request formally informed its European partners. First opportunity would be the height of the leaders, the European Council President Donald Tusk has moved, out of consideration for the British referendum, by one week to 28 June. In a second part of the meeting, the leaders in Brussels would define the guidelines for the negotiation of an agreement to exit even without the British Premier.

End for FTA

Britain would now not a normal member. Article 50 stipulates that Government and ministers may not attend any discussions and decision on the agreement to exit. The EU Commission would for London negotiator, said the British would come under great time pressure to a revision of the conditions. Article 50 specifies a narrow temporal corset of two years to regulate exit procedures and the new relationship with the EU.

In the two years would have to be clarified, for example, whether and under what conditions the UK continues to receive access to the internal market of the EU. In particular, the financial industry is likely to push for a swift resolution. In a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union Great Britain would also fly from some 50 free trade agreements that have been negotiated by Brussels for the whole EU. London takes a very short time to renegotiate or take massive disadvantages.

One challenge would be to regulate the legal status of the approximately two million EU citizens in the UK and as many British on the continent. In Spain alone, more than 200,000 live British retirees who could lose access to social and health system.

not expected gifts

may have to be amended standard also police cooperation or about the applicability of the European arrest warrant, the United Kingdom has been often used. As an EU member Britain has implemented EU legislation or applied directly. In the EU legal acts that are transposed into national law, it should be no problem. For the directly applicable regulations, the British government would have but quickly found replacement.

In addition, ask very practical questions. So it seems impossible that Britain could take over the rotating EU presidency as scheduled for a vote for the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union in July. Possibly also takes the British EU Financial Commissioner Jonathan Hill at least give its dossier, when negotiating future rules on access to the London financial center.

Another open issue is what happens to the British judges at the European Court, and how long are likely to remain the 73 British MEPs. Rather unlikely that they could a say in matters that do not affect their land. At least no acute concerns would be the almost 1200 making among the total 33,000 EU officials, who have a British passport. Their employment contracts would not be affected by an exit. Hopes of a career in top positions of the EU administration they would however buried.

be the problem for the British is likely that they have little leverage. And gifts they can not be expected. Therefore Commission and European partners have only been to be strict to deter counterfeiters and to prevent a general withdrawal movement. Is there within two years, no agreement, provides outlet products before 50 that the EU treaties for Great Britain no longer apply. But FTAs ​​or negotiate a contract of association usually takes many years. An extension to end of two years is possible only if all Member States agree. A Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union would be for the British to a journey into the unknown.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Stoker177
	Nope, that is a completely different body....MEP's are indeed elected, but they don't make legislation or rules...they are dreamt up by the aforementioned 26 unelected commisionaires.

Except that they, the commissioners are approved by the parliament, are accountable to the parliament and can be removed by the parliament. Furthermore the council of ministers have a right of veto and at least for the UK and Ireland they are also elected representatives.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Did anyone see the BBC programme last night? Paxman went to Brussels and asked some hard questions, and it seems much of the news coming out of Brussels was untrue (Bent bananas etc). Paxman was not sympathetic at all, and did show there are of course big differences between London & Brussels. http://www.radiotimes.com/tv-program...eally-rules-us The main difference is that after 5 years the democratic parliament is dissolved and the newly elected need to start again. Meanwhile after 5 years the EU keeps the professional leadership and they continue to develop the common EU policies. Personally I prefer continuous development rather than changing every 5 years.

Watched it twice.

Paxman played a good game, then ripped the Brexit campaigner a new one at the end.

The British 'unelected commissioner', one of the group that Brexit campaigners keeps papping on about incessantly, was chosen by Cameron.

	Quote:
	Lord Hill is David Cameron's choice as UK's next European commissioner PM hopes mainstream candidate will persuade Jean-Claude Juncker to give Britain one of main economic portfolios

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...n-commissioner

I love the way Brexit campaigners can't name their own MEP, probably didn't bother to vote at all, and only stir out of their seats to the ballot boxes for a General Election, than have the sheer audacity to whinge that there are people making laws who they didn't elect!!! These are the same people who, even if they did have a vote for these positions, most likely wouldn't bother. They'll be wanting to choose the cabinet positions next....

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	I see the main problem is in the design of European management. The EU must find common ground for all countries with quite different cultures and climates, whereas tiny Britain doesn't have any problems with water supplies or growing olives, the southern countries do. Apparently Britain gets directives on olive growing, but these are just filed away ....

Britain does have a problem with water supplies in some regions. Thousands of people in Lancashire were without water for a few weeks this year. There are also British farmers making an attempt at olive growing. Who would have thought 40yrs ago that British grown sparkling wine would be winning top International awards? Times change....

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I love the way Brexit campaigners can't name their own MEP, probably didn't bother to vote at all, and only stir out of their seats to the ballot boxes for a General Election...

Aren't you making the assumption that 'Remainers' are any better.....most people I know from both camps can't name their MEP's and most people generally in the UK can't be bothered to vote in any of the elections.......


The blame here is on all sides as I previously posted....the MEP's/ MP's for their inability to inspire people to vote and the people in particular who are so apathetic to not bother to try and make a change...


Whatever way people vote....if they vote then that's surely positive....the underlying tone of your comments about the 'leavers' is atypical of the general lack of respect for people of different opinions and views....you may not want to leave the EU as is fairly obvious from your post, but many people do....I may want to; I may not....not 100% sure yet....but nothing is worse than the negative fear mongering disparaging campaign and remarks made by both politicians and some people.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Article 50 specifies a narrow temporal corset of two years to regulate exit procedures and the new relationship with the EU.

Yes, this is true. On the one hand, there's no need to invoke A50 immediately after the referendum. e.g. if the UK government believes they need more prep time, they can prepare and invoke it at a later time. However, given that things take as much time as is available to do, then its probably no bad thing to invoke it immediately and focus minds.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Stoker177
	Whatever way people vote....if they vote then that's surely positive....the underlying tone of your comments about the 'leavers' is atypical of the general lack of respect for people of different opinions and views....you may not want to leave the EU as is fairly obvious from your post, but many people do....I may want to; I may not....not 100% sure yet....but nothing is worse than the negative fear mongering disparaging campaign and remarks made by both politicians and some people.

Voter apathy is common on all sides in the UK, so is habitual voting. Political awareness needs to begin much earlier than 18 for people to become engaged, it needs to be 'sold' at an earlier age in an incredibly balanced way. My political awareness began with the Munich Olympics assasinations, Watergate and the Cypriot War. I asked the questions and my parents did their best to answer them.

The vast majority of my friends are 30-45, and with a few exceptions, they only became politically aware around the time of the UN Security Council 2nd Resolution back in 2003. That was the turning point for so, so many people that I'm close to.

Far from lacking respect for leave voters, I hate that (in my belief) they're being massively misinformed. I hate that the remain campaign are being weak as piss in their response to appeals from voters for more information that would allow them to make an informed decision.

You are mistaking my sheer frustration with the entire campaign on both sides with being disparaging. Cameron is pussy footing around so as to not split his own party when he should be putting forward an accurate campaign backed with clear, checkable facts on all the issues the public are concerned about with relation to the EU.

To be absolutely clear, my concerns r.e. the EU are the the economy and security. Immigration will happen regardless. I come from an industry that's being heavily hit by concerns about security. These concerns have a knock on effect to the economy. To me personally, the vote to remain is a no brainer, but I will look at every arguement from the leave campaign to see if holds water.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	This gives at least a taste: "Deserters are not welcomed with open arms," ​​European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday Friday in a newspaper interview to the address of the British. If the majority in the referendum on 23 June to decide on the withdrawal from the EU, will the United Kingdom to third countries with no claim to special treatment.

If the UK were to vote to leave, I would say there is a very high probability of this. Juncker is correct in saying that there will be very little goodwill towards the UK in negotiations, particularly as the benefits of such a deal with not be uniformly enjoyed by the member states. I would expect that eastern states will be under pressure to veto any deal that does not in some way benefit their citizens who have in the past moved to the UK or who were expecting to move there. Such a veto would simply lead to the two year period expiring without an deal. Furthermore with all the pressing issues facing the EU, I would expect that what happens to a former member state will rank fourth or fifth down the list of priorities.

As for the negotiations, I'd imagine the UK negotiation team will be presented with three options:
- Accept WTO trading rules
- Join the EEA
- Full membership of the EU
Which do you want??? Which clearly means there is only one option....

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The vast majority of my friends are 30-45, and with a few exceptions, they only became politically aware around the time of the UN Security Council 2nd Resolution back in 2003. That was the turning point for so, so many people that I'm close to.

Of my experience growing up in Ireland I would say constitutional referenda is what pulls a lot of young people in as it appeals to their ideals and aspirations from the country rather than party politics. Certainly last years referendum on gay rights raise political awareness to a new hight among young people.