The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Odile]

So it looks like Gibraltar will be first to go. Then military bases in Germany and Cyprus I imagine. Falklands next?

	Quote:	Odile
	Falklands next?

Have you been drinking?

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	Odile
	So it looks like Gibraltar will be first to go. Then military bases in Germany and Cyprus I imagine. Falklands next?

The bases in Cyprus are on sovereign property.

The people of Gibraltar overwhelmingly reject Spanish sovereignty, even shared.

Bases in Germany are to do with NATO, not the EU (are there still bases in Germany?).

Not sure what the Falklands have to do with this.

You just want to see the United Kingdom humiliated, don't you?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	If they couild win just one referendum in just one country, they might be able to talk about some sort of legitimacy.

Well done, whatever you do don't let the facts interfere with your opinion!

Under the Irish constitution, the people reserve all EU treaty decisions to themselves, the government may negotiate, re negotiate, make proposals etc... but an Irish parliament can never ever approve a treaty change. And once the Irish people have voted and the returning officer certifies the result it is law unlike the UK.

And when there is a referendum in Ireland you see various heads of state, commissioners, MEPs etc rocking up in Ireland to support it. So it is very much a legitimate vote on the EU.

Furthermore, if the BREXIT agreements in anyway require a the treaty change, like for example the operation of single market, FMOP etc. then it will come down to the Irish people as to whether or not the agreement will go through!

EEC would never have morphed into the EU it is today, unless the Irish people approved every single change, it is that simple. We don't even need to address the various referenda and approval process held else where to knock your argument on the head.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	They all seem to be quite a way back though.

30th amendment to the Irish constitution held in the middle of the financial crisis in Ireland (2012) approved 60%/40% turnout 50%, approval of the Fiscal Compact.

There is nothing more current, because if there was the Irish people who have had to approve it.

[McTAVGE]

	Quote:	Odile
	Oh my, oh my FMF - how long are you going to carry that bone alongf- it must be exhausting. And, yes, LOL, the story did change- because circustances did and that for excellent reasons. There is no way I'll explain here why the friend who was going to make the cheque initially asked me not to because she found herself in a difficult situation- so I just phoned another friend in Rouen who owned be moeny since her last holiday with us- and she paid it immediately. I do apologies profusely for not sending a full report to you immediately (not) - but I felt the fact it was paid, and quite a bit more, was sufficient. Ridiculous of course to bring this up here on this thread. As said, if the people who relates what they have seen and heard themselves, are good friends you know you can trust- then for me, it ceases to be hearsay. A great friend of mine went to see his father in Boston recently and took him to the pub. He just had to leave as his father and his mates were spouting racist stuff all evening- and he Skyped me afterwards as he was so shaken by it. Another excellent friend, Swiss with British OH, were also in East Anglia 2 weeks ago, and she said it was just shocking. and so on, and so on. The cover page of the tabloids is not hearsay- have a look at the Sun, Express, Daily Mail - day in, day out- and see the open racism they portray.

My Anglo-Scottish side of the family is split bang in the middle of the generational gap and yes, some of the 60+ year-old relatives are coming up with stuff they would have never said (they might have been thinking it, though) back a couple of years ago.


There is a convergence of factors, Brexit is not the only one and I certainly would not accuse the majority of Brexiters to be bigots but, if the evidence remains anecdotal, people feel "freer" to vent openly their prejudices. That in my view is the saddest consequence of the current political climate.


Having said this, France is holding a similar discourse, but Britain used to be held as an example in Europe of tolerance, open-mindedness, and yes, political correctness whose detractors must now breathe a sigh of relief. The loss of "Cool Britannia" is in my view the greatest loss post-Brexit. My children, with their bilingual and bicultural heritage and with friends all over Europe, cannot understand either what is happening to some of our old neighbours and relatives.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	McTAVGE
	My Anglo-Scottish side of the family is split bang in the middle of the generational gap and yes, some of the 60+ year-old relatives are coming up with stuff they would have never said (they might have been thinking it, though) back a couple of years ago. There is a convergence of factors, Brexit is not the only one and I certainly would not accuse the majority of Brexiters to be bigots but, if the evidence remains anecdotal, people feel "freer" to vent openly their prejudices. That in my view is the saddest consequence of the current political climate. Having said this, France is holding a similar discourse, but Britain used to be held as an example in Europe of tolerance, open-mindedness, and yes, political correctness whose detractors must now breathe a sigh of relief. The loss of "Cool Britannia" is in my view the greatest loss post-Brexit. My children, with their bilingual and bicultural heritage and with friends all over Europe, cannot understand either what is happening to some of our old neighbours and relatives.

I suspect they are saying what they would have said 30 years ago. Robinson's gollywogs were only dropped from packaging in 2001, when politically correctness took over.
http://revealinghistories.org.uk/leg...golliwogs.html

[amogles]

	Quote:	McTAVGE
	There is a convergence of factors, Brexit is not the only one and I certainly would not accuse the majority of Brexiters to be bigots but, if the evidence remains anecdotal, people feel "freer" to vent openly their prejudices. That in my view is the saddest consequence of the current political climate.

As you say, there has been a convergence of factors. Lots of other things have also changed in the last year or two, ranging from terrorism to political developments outside of the Brexitsphere, to economic change, globalisation, changes in the workspace to even fake news. It's disingenous to reduce it all to one factor.

Both Trump and Brexit have shown what can happen when elites feel they don't need to keep normal dumb everyday deplorable people on board and fail to consult with them and explain things to them or god forbid, even admit that sometimes they are right.

Frustration can vent itself through different channels. But often its a symptom of a deeper underlying cause. I'm not convinced there genuinely is a massive rise in racist incidents, but if there is a slight rise, I don't think racism is the core issue but it's a symptom that people use to channel their anger because they feel something is being taken away from them. Adress those core points of dissatisfcation and I'm pretty sure the racism will also go away. But if people continue to wave their arms and say its all down to the stupidity of the undertrodden, they're just reinforcing the core of the problem.

We're not paying the bill for the mistakes of the last two or three years but the last 20 or 30 years. Systems have a certain lag factor and a certain ability to absorb tensions. But if you rely on that too much you become blind to the breaking point when it's here.

[amogles]

	Quote:	McTAVGE
	Having said this, France is holding a similar discourse, but Britain used to be held as an example in Europe of tolerance, open-mindedness, and yes, political correctness whose detractors must now breathe a sigh of relief.

I never had the impression that Britain was an example for Europe in terms of integration. Maybe Britain saw things that way, and the pundits were quick to jump on their soap boxes when say there were riots in Paris and to proclaim that would never happen here. But that was always a purely British perspective. Virtually every country thought and still thinks their type of integration is the best type.

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	amogles
	and therein lies the EU's credibility gap. If they could win just one referendum in just one country, they might be able to talk about some sort of legitimacy. And there may be a reason they don't want to test those waters. Think about it. Not even in Luxembourg. And until they take that test, the score stands at against-EU : 1, pro-EU: 0 Not exactly anything to be proud of.

But I think the score is nearer 3 - 0

Before the Treaty of Lisbon the Irish and Dutch voted down the EU's master plan, which is why they sneaked in the Treaty of Lisbon, agreed by all the EU ministers, but not by the peasants.

I haven't checked the sources, but isn't that correct?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty..._2008_(Ireland)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty...ion_for_Europe
The Treaty was signed on 29 October 2004 by representatives of the then 25 member states of the European Union. It was later ratified by 18 member states, which included referendums endorsing it in Spain and Luxembourg. However the rejection of the document by French and Dutch voters in May and June 2005 brought the ratification process to an end.
.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	amogles
	But I guess it's only the referendums they lose that get to be repeated.

marton missed one out - The United Kingdom European Communities referendum of 1975, 67.23% in favour, turnout 64.62%

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I suspect they are saying what they would have said 30 years ago. Robinson's gollywogs were only dropped from packaging in 2001, when politically correctness took over.

TV series' that you'll never see repeated on Dave - 'Love Thy Neighbour' & 'Mind Your Language'.

The Gibraltar move is going to cause a lot of tensions, particularly for some of Spain's huge expat contingent. Seeing as a significant number of them voted leave, things just got interesting.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The Gibraltar move is going to cause a lot of tensions, particularly for some of Spain's huge expat contingent. Seeing as a significant number of them voted leave, things just got interesting.

Methinks Spain's bark is worse than their bite.

They know full well how dependent their economy is on British holidaymakers and retirees. Spain is just emerging from one of the worst economic crises since the civil war. The growth is still in its early stages and very fragile and needs to be nurtured, not gambled away. They're not going to scupper all that just to make a point.

But grandstanding about it is a completely different issue. Especially if it deflects from government failings in other areas.

Just think about it. Imagine if Britain hands the keys of Gibraltar over to Spain tomorrow, what does that do to the legitimacy of Spain's claims on Ceuta and Melilla?

On the other hand, maybe all pro-remainers who are afraid of a life outside of the EU could be made citizens of Gibraltar first

[greenmount]

	Quote:	McTAVGE
	My Anglo-Scottish side of the family is split bang in the middle of the generational gap and yes, some of the 60+ year-old relatives are coming up with stuff they would have never said (they might have been thinking it, though) back a couple of years ago. There is a convergence of factors, Brexit is not the only one and I certainly would not accuse the majority of Brexiters to be bigots but, if the evidence remains anecdotal, people feel "freer" to vent openly their prejudices. That in my view is the saddest consequence of the current political climate. Having said this, France is holding a similar discourse, but Britain used to be held as an example in Europe of tolerance, open-mindedness, and yes, political correctness whose detractors must now breathe a sigh of relief. The loss of "Cool Britannia" is in my view the greatest loss post-Brexit. My children, with their bilingual and bicultural heritage and with friends all over Europe, cannot understand either what is happening to some of our old neighbours and relatives.

I don't think you have to worry for your children because their generation is totally different, exactly for the reasons you mentioned. At some point there will be a generational change and I doubt they'll relate to abstract notions such as nationality or ethnicity the way older generations do.
They're the cool ones.

As for the negotiations with EU - hope they'll be very pragmatic and fair, I think it doesn't help anyone to "humiliate" (whatever that means in this context) the other part.

[McTAVGE]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I don't think you have to worry for your children because their generation is totally different, exactly for the reasons you mentioned. At some point there will be a generational change and I doubt they'll relate to abstract notions such as nationality or ethnicity the way older generations do. They're the cool ones. As for the negotiations with EU - hope they'll be very pragmatic and fair, I think it doesn't help anyone to "humiliate" (whatever that means in this context) the other part.

Completely agree with you. I hope nobody, EU or U.K. plays it the playground bully way. There are too many people's lives and future at stake.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Before the Treaty of Lisbon the Irish and Dutch voted down the EU's master plan, which is why they sneaked in the Treaty of Lisbon, agreed by all the EU ministers, but not by the peasants.

Nope, 28th amendment to the Irish constitution - authorised the government to ratify the Lisbon Treaty.

	Quote:
	The amendment was approved by the Irish electorate by 67.1% to 32.9%, on a turnout of 59%

You will not find a single change that we have not voted on. As I said else where neither the parliament nor the government can approve a treaty change.

Perhaps that is one of the reason they are so positive about it, is because they have debated, argued and on it. And they see referenda in a very different light - it's about the long term future not about the current government.

[McTAVGE]

	Quote:	amogles
	I never had the impression that Britain was an example for Europe in terms of integration. Maybe Britain saw things that way, and the pundits were quick to jump on their soap boxes when say there were riots in Paris and to proclaim that would never happen here. But that was always a purely British perspective. Virtually every country thought and still thinks their type of integration is the best type.

The Poles, French, Spaniards, Hungarians, Czechs, Germans who lived in the U.K. in the 1990s probably would have begged to differ. I used to train teachers coming over from all over Europe and they all gasped in admiration at the way respect for other cultures and intercultural life were interwoven in many aspects of British everyday life, and most proactively in its educational system. I had muslim students friends with jewish students, every shade of skin colour living in harmony at school and in their neighbourhood, and nobody cared about their religion. I wonder if 9/11 did not change all that.

[marton]

	Quote:	McTAVGE
	The Poles, French, Spaniards, Hungarians, Czechs, Germans who lived in the U.K. in the 1990s probably would have begged to differ. I used to train teachers coming over from all over Europe and they all gasped in admiration at the way respect for other cultures and intercultural life were interwoven in many aspects of British everyday life, and most proactively in its educational system. I had muslim students friends with jewish students, every shade of skin colour living in harmony at school and in their neighbourhood, and nobody cared about their religion. I wonder if 9/11 did not change all that.

True
The Kenyan Asians also integrated very well despite the circumstances that forced them to emigrate.
I had some as employees and they were excellent.

9/11 did change some people's views; in the end even Osama Bin Laden said it was a grave mistake; it achieved the opposite from what was planned as a strategy!

Rather like Pearl Harbour; the tactic was successful but the strategic objective utterly failed

[greenmount]

	Quote:	lewton
	So thanks to Brexit you know whom to avoid talking to. Before Brexit they were oppressing their true feelings. I'd rather know the racists for racists than see a facade of political correctness.

Yes and no, depending on the circumstances. Racism leads to discrimination and you would rather want to avoid this, don't you? It's one thing to know how people really feel (as if we couldn't figure that out before Brexit anyway, I think Amogles is spot on ) and totally another one when they are free to put it in practice in daily life. It will be interesting to know what happens with all those immigrants who are already there for years and still want to live there, probably many of them will be forced to leave. Or probably not, who knows, there is a lot of hysteria at the moment, perhaps when things come down a bit -now that Brexit is a certitude for each part involved - things will look differently.
I think EU will have a difficult task to negotiate a lot of things, not only UK. This is the moment when I expect Juncker et co. to quit all that gibberish and start being pragmatic for once. Everybody has interests to protect.

	Quote:	amogles
	and therein lies the EU's credibility gap. If they couild win just one referendum in just one country, they might be able to talk about some sort of legitimacy. And there may be a reason they don't want to test those waters. .

I think it is more complicated than that. I think politicians know very well that they have to play the Eurosceptic card a bit in order to counterbalance the rise of far right wing. Unfortunately, they focus on finding similar strategies with the far right (or is it simply more appealing for the human nature?) rather than honest debates on the advantages and the disadvantages that might come with, that most states have as a consequence of EU membership. So yes, at the time being they might not want to test the waters because it would be deceiving. Say they get a yes to leave vote and then what? Too much at stake I think and they know it very well.

Plus, it is always easier to have someone (Brussels, the immigrants, Juncker, Merkel, you name it) to blame for their own shortcomings. Europeans are very comfortable today because there's always some Brussels bureaucrat or some underclass that is to blame for everything, everybody can be so self-satisfied now. Less work to do with themselves I guess.

[TobiasM]

Well thats a relief, I was starting to get worried.

[baboon]

	Quote:	amogles
	Methinks Spain's bark is worse than their bite. They know full well how dependent their economy is on British holidaymakers and retirees. Spain is just emerging from one of the worst economic crises since the civil war. The growth is still in its early stages and very fragile and needs to be nurtured, not gambled away. They're not going to scupper all that just to make a point.

Two things there....:

1. It's a decent boost, yes, but a long way from dependent on. Theres many more Germans going there, for example. And given the relative collapse in tourist numbers to Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey the whole northern side of the Med is basically full with or without the Brit tourists
2. The retirees only pay off as long as the UK picks up their health bills. If after Brexit this is no longer the case they become a liability.