The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[StirB]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Historical right to access". Lol, good luck with that.

Bald men fighting over a comb. There's sod all fish left!

[marton]

May just announced a general election on 8th June!!
So not much Brexit negotiating before then!

Edit - She will need a two thirds majority in Parliament to approve this

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	EU countries fighting to keep their fishing rights in UK waters; Source Does not seem to be so simple as was claimed?

Probably means the other rock will come into play. It seems that for the UN to adjudicate on Denmark's claim, Ireland must make a submission which it has not as it does not recognize the use of the rock for territorial claims on fishing rights etc.

However the Irish PM will have a bilateral with the Danish PM this week seeking support for the Irish position on BREXIT so that could change..

[marton]

In the Financial Times, reports that the European Commission is starting systematically to shut out British groups from multi-billion euro contracts

And urging [UK] companies to decamp to one of the 27 remaining EU members
From an internal memo seen by the Financial Times
EU officials have told staff to avoid "unnecessary additional complications" with Britain before 2019

Source (might be behind a paywall)

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	In the Financial Times, reports that the European Commission is starting systematically to shut out British groups from multi-billion euro contracts And urging [UK] companies to decamp to one of the 27 remaining EU members From an internal memo seen by the Financial Times EU officials have told staff to avoid "unnecessary additional complications" with Britain before 2019 Source (might be behind a paywall)

Well TM has made it clear she is going for the hard exit, so it would surprising if they were not prepared to deal with the situation. But seeing this definitely brings a sense of reality to proceedings.

[pdofr]

	Quote:	marton
	In the Financial Times, reports that the European Commission is starting systematically to shut out British groups from multi-billion euro contracts

Having worked on an EU overseas aid project myself, this is exactly what happens. EU suppliers are preferred.

	Quote:	marton
	And urging [UK] companies to decamp to one of the 27 remaining EU members From an internal memo seen by the Financial Times EU officials have told staff to avoid "unnecessary additional complications" with Britain before 2019

Simple risk control, which is not unexpected. Someone somewhere (no names, cough) didn't think the consequences of Brexit all the way through...

	Quote:	marton
	Source (might be behind a paywall)

Yes it is behind a paywall. Here's an accessible commentary on the FT article

"The memo also urges agencies to prepare for a disorderly Brexit by establishing how to sever the UK’s access to EU information, such as crime-fighting and asylum databases.

“In the absence of certainty about arrangements (if any) for a future relationship, commission services and decentralised agencies should start considering the practical aspects of disconnecting access from non-public databases hosted by EU bodies."

The commentary rounds off with this gem:

"What we find most amusing however, is that the commentariat at the FT, the original Bremainer bastion, is lashing out at Brussels in response, so if Europe wanted to burn every last bridge, it has certainly succeeded while assuring that the upcoming episodes of what is now set to be the messiest divorce in history will be dramatic, chaotic and delightfully entertaining."

Oops. Popcorn time (I don't like the stuff, chocolate instead?).

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	No surprise really A beauty contest between member states who want the European banking and medicine agencies, currently located in London, will begin within two weeks, with selection criteria to be unveiled by the president of the European council, Donald Tusk. The European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency employ about 1,000 people, many of them British, and provide a hub for businesses in the UK. It is understood that the EU’s chief negotiator hopes the agencies will know their new locations by June, Source

The European Union is expecting Britain to pay the full cost of relocating two major EU agencies from London back to the EU after Brexit, in the latest signal that Brussels intends to play hardball over the costs of UK withdrawal from Europe.

The plan, revealed in a leaked draft of the European Commission’s Brexit negotiating mandate, looks certain to raise the temperature of the debate over Britain’s so-called ‘Brexit bill’.

Source

So far the EU are displaying much better negotiation skills than the UK

Seems to be a reasonable idea that the UK pays for any new costs created solely by Brexit?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Source So far the EU are displaying much better negotiation skills than the UK Seems to be a reasonable idea that the UK pays for any new costs created solely by Brexit?

From the same article:

	Quote:
	Last week David Davis, the Brexit secretary, indicated that Britain did not accept that the agencies would necessarily have to be relocated inside the EU after Brexit

I can't make up my mind whether these guys are getting real bad advice, are ignoring good advice or just could not careless. How can you not get the fact that having two major EU institutions outside the jurisdiction of the ECJ would not be a problem???

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	From the same article: I can't make up my mind whether these guys are getting real bad advice, are ignoring good advice or just could not careless. How can you not get the fact that having two major EU institutions outside the jurisdiction of the ECJ would not be a problem???

"David Davis, the Brexit secretary, indicated that Britain did not accept that the agencies would necessarily have to be relocated inside the EU after Brexit"
But what Britain accepts is not relevant?
These are EU agencies and so the EU is the only one with the authority to decide their location?

I assume they simply prefer to ignore any advice they do not like? The ostrich approach!

For example,

	Quote:
	Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s ambassador to the EU has suddenly resigned, just weeks after his warning that striking a new trade deal could take a decade sparked a major row. Clear tensions with No.10 were laid bare when he warned it could take until the early mid-2020s for the EU to agree and ratify a comprehensive trade deal with Britain. The Daily Mail claimed the knives were out for Sir Ivan, with demands for him to be replaced with “a diplomat who is more energetically pro-Brexit”. Source

Politicians are all about projecting an image regardless of the underlying realities!

[marton]

It really is a farce; to say again, if you wrote a novel about this nobody would have believed it!

	Quote:
	Former and only Ukip MP Douglas Carswell to step down in Clacton. The former Ukip MP Douglas Carswell has said he will not seek re-election in Clacton, but will vote for the Conservative candidate. Carswell left Ukip last month to sit as an independent after a high-profile split with senior party figures including the former leader Nigel Farage. Ukip’s former main financial backer Arron Banks confirmed he would still stand for election in Clacton. Banks has also recently fallen out with Ukip and he left the party in March. Source

[Castro]

No more speculating, straight from the horse's mouth

EU would welcome UK back if voters overturn Brexit – Brussels chief

Exclusive: European parliament president Antonio Tajani says process could easily be reversed if election brings new UK government

The president of the European parliament has said Britain would be welcomed back with open arms if voters change their minds about Brexit on 8 June, challenging Theresa May’s claim that “there is no turning back” after article 50.

Speaking after a meeting with the prime minister in Downing Street, Antonio Tajani insisted that her triggering of the departure process last month could be reversed easily by the remaining EU members if there was a change of UK government after the general election, and that it would not even require a court case.

“If the UK, after the election, wants to withdraw [article 50], then the procedure is very clear,” he said in an interview. “If the UK wanted to stay, everybody would be in favour. I would be very happy.”

He also threatened to veto any Brexit deal if it does not guarantee in full the existing rights of EU citizens in Britain and said this protection would forever be subject to the jurisdiction of the European court of justice (ECJ).

Both are potential sticking points for May, who has promised to end free movement of EU citizens and rid Britain forever of interference by the ECJ, but the European parliament must ratify any Brexit deal agreed by negotiators before it can be completed.

Lawyers are divided on whether the UK can unilaterally change its mind about leaving and are bringing a test case to establish the legal reversibility of article 50, but the parliament president spelled out a process by which a simple political decision by other member states would be sufficient.

“If tomorrow, the new UK government decides to change its position, it is possible to do,” said Tajani. “The final decision is for the 27 member states, but everybody will be in favour if the UK [decides to reverse article 50].”

Though stressing that the decision was a matter for the UK electorate alone to consider, the president’s intervention pointedly contradicted those who argue that the upcoming general election is not a second chance to consider exiting the EU.

“Britain is leaving the European Union and there can be no turning back,” said May on Tuesday as she called for a snap election and promised to strengthen the government’s mandate for pursuing Brexit on any terms.

Tajani, an Italian who recently replaced the German veteran Martin Schulz as the international representative of the key EU institution, said he had a largely positive discussion with the prime minister during their first one-on-one meeting on Thursday.

Yet he warned that the European parliament would veto the entire deal if the UK does not agree to the preservation of all rights of the estimated 3 million EU citizens already settled in the UK and the 1.2 million Britons in Europe.

“We will vote against [it],” he said, adding that he wanted “a clear framework [on EU citizens] in the next months” agreed at a political level. Negotiators would then work on the technical details covering issues such as reciprocal pensions, health, and other issues, a process that is likely to be prolonged.

He also moved to allay fears among campaigners that if May wins the election she will try to block future rights of those settled in the UK, specifically the rights of French, Polish or other EU citizens to have family members join them.

This is a right EU citizens have been campaigning to protect as it accommodates future care of widowed parents.

Stressing that there should be no diminution of citizens’ rights after Brexit, he added: “For us it’s important to ensure that Brexit does not have negative effects on their life and rights they are enjoying.”

“We want the same rights as today. For us, the agreement is [to have the same rights] as today [and] yesterday, tomorrow,” he said. “For us, it is a priority and it is a red line,” he said.

He said he was optimistic the prime minister would respect all existing rights enjoyed by European citizens because she wanted the same in return for British citizens in the rest of Europe.

He also said the ECJ would regulate the agreement on EU citizens post Brexit, thereby blocking any bid by a future government to renege on the deal struck.

“Under the [Brexit] treaty everything under the treaty is under the court,” said Tajani in a further contradiction of British government policy.

The EU parliament president nonetheless welcomed May’s decision to call a snap election, saying it was unlikely to delay Brexit talks by more than a week and would provide long-term clarity.

“To have a new government before the beginning of the negotiation is good, not only for the UK but for us, because we will have the same negotiators, the same prime minister and we will know the real situation in the UK,” said the EU president.

“It is better for us to work with the same government and not with a potential election campaign [looming].”

Tajani also struck a more positive note than some MEPs about the prospects for moving on to trade talks with Britain before the end of the two-year window allocated for the exit negotiations.

“We hope before the end of 2017 to have a framework on the exit and immediately afterwards it is possible to start with the negotiations for the day after,” said Tajani, whose press conference in the former Conservative party headquarters building in Smith Square was briefly interrupted by a phone call from the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier.

“I will inform the [European] council of this meeting and that it was positive. It’s the beginning, there’s a long way but it’s important to start well.”

Source

[marton]

@ Castro

So far May has not proven to be a trustworthy leader, latest example is her calling a general election after promising not too.

I fear the EU will make mincemeat of us in any Brexit negotiations while we have no good cards to play and so far no sign of any innovative strategies.

Meanwhile the EU are laying down one reasonable sounding scenario after another.

[marton]

	Quote:
	The former Ukip leader Nigel Farage will not stand as a candidate in the general election. “If I compare the platform I have in Strasbourg [MEP] to being a backbench MP, there is frankly no comparison,” he wrote in the Telegraph.

So after claiming to have got UK out of EU he will continue to earn a fortune within the EU Parliament until UK finally leaves; which is starting to look like well into the '20s

[Chuff]

	Quote:	marton
	@ Castro So far May has not proven to be a trustworthy leader, latest example is her calling a general election after promising not too.

Name me a prime minister, ever, who did not break a promise.

The fact is whatever she thought back when she said that, now IS the best time to do so and it is a bold and clever strategic move.

The alternative leaders to choose from are too grim to even contemplate.

[Odile]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Name me a prime minister, ever, who did not break a promise.

ONE promise- or every single one of them, lock stock and many barrels?

She says it well:

https://www.facebook.com/TheIndepend...4710722111636/

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	So after claiming to have got UK out of EU he will continue to earn a fortune within the EU Parliament until UK finally leaves; which is starting to look like well into the '20s

Longer than that - he'll have a pension to fall back there after, paid by the British taxpayer

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Odile
	ONE promise- or every single one of them, lock stock and many barrels? She says it well: https://www.facebook.com/TheIndepend...4710722111636/

Sorry Oldie, but are you saying that Theresa May has broken every promise she has made since coming into office?

Unless you have been living under a rock throughout your long existence, ALL politicians break their promises when circumstances dictate or when they feel it necessary to achieve their goals. No politician is exempt from this, and sometimes it's even understandable given the fast-moving changes in the political landscape. The problem is that they feel they need to make such concrete promises in the first place, when if they were just honest about it or didn't use such definitive wording then it wouldn't sound or seem so bad.

There is nothing noble (even if it is now normal) about either a politician who makes a promise they cannot keep, or that sticks to a promise that will produce less than ideal results as circumstances change.

[marton]

U.K. Retail Sales Post Biggest Quarterly Drop Since Early 2010
In March 2017 alone, sales dropped 1.8 percent, far exceeding the 0.5 percent decline forecast by economists.

Households are being squeezed by rising food and fuel costs, the result of the pound’s 14 percent drop since the June vote to leave the European Union. The price of retail goods sold in March increased an annual 3.3 percent, the most since March 2012.

Source

Lucky for May the May sales figures will not arrive before the election; of course April figures will

Meanwhile the eurozone economic numbers are better than forecast with strong growth forecast.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Sorry Oldie, but are you saying that Theresa May has broken every promise she has made since coming into office?

I trust that was your spell checker and not a veiled insult.

[Odile]

	Quote:	Chuff
	There is nothing noble (even if it is now normal) about either a politician who makes a promise they cannot keep, or that sticks to a promise that will produce less than ideal results as circumstances change.

Ball is in your court- give me one promise made by the Leave campaign/Gvt during the Brexit campaign which they have honoured.

Like 'Your NHS is safe with us' ? Which today =

Theresa May suggests UK health services could be part of US trade deal. Because of course we all know what a brilliant health service the USA has, and what a fabulous model it would be for the UK, to replace the dreadful thing that the NHS is

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7548156.html

never mind the 350m a week promised too.