The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Now "British" manufacturers have the choice of staying with the current situation or encouraging component suppliers to build factories in England; whether these factories would have a large enough market for their volumes to be profitable versus importing is a good question.

Well assuming they are only targeting the local market that is an option, I suppose. In practice I expect the argument will go along the lines of: we need to swallow the tariffs so we will have to cut the variable cost known as wages.

It is a fare bet that any company that gets the opportunity to cut the working man's wage in the cause of BREXIT will do so.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	baboon
	Given that UK median household income is about £23,500 this means about 20% is being spent online. As much of that is discretionary spending (holidays, theatres, even the train tickets to a fair degree given that season tickets are still often done in person, at least outside of the TFL area) I find that quite a lot.

I wonder has household debt gone up accordingly???

[Odile]

	Quote:	Chuff
	I would say the way it works is that if someone makes an illogical blanket statement then they have to back it up, not the other way around. Otherwise debates would be tiresome indeed if you had to go and get evidence of proving every bit of nonsense someone else said...

How can I give you a list that doesn't exist?

My question is- why promise has she and her party made during the Brexit campaign, which she/they have upheld?

Single market - no
Customs union - no
Limit EU immigration - no
No election until 2020 - no, etc, etc.

You give a a list of promises made that have been kept so far?

As for the Oldie - be my guest- but your dad is younger than me and I wonder how he would feel about his son being just so rude.

[Jim2007]

Brexit: EU scuppers Theresa May plan to end European Court's UK power

May better get a very big majority and appoint a few very capable whips! 'Cause there is some very unpalatable stuff coming down the line...

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Brexit: EU scuppers Theresa May plan to end European Court's UK power May better get a very big majority and appoint a few very capable whips! 'Cause there is some very unpalatable stuff coming down the line...

Then May says "no deal" and walks away. Simpelz.

[Slaphead]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Brexit: EU scuppers Theresa May plan to end European Court's UK power May better get a very big majority and appoint a few very capable whips! 'Cause there is some very unpalatable stuff coming down the line...

And what is particularly unpalatable about this:

	Quote:	Indie
	It could mean European nationals can turn to the court if they believe the British Government is breaching their rights in the future, but also that UK citizens elsewhere in Europe could do the same.

It's pretty much what I've always considered to be fair - If you're in, you're in.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Slaphead
	And what is particularly unpalatable about this: It's pretty much what I've always considered to be fair - If you're in, you're in.

I think the point being that May will try to get out of it

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Then May says "no deal" and walks away. Simpelz.

Yap, and travels by boat to negotiate trade deals with the other 12 non WTO members

[marton]

	Quote:	loz1983
	then may says "no deal" and limps away. Simpelz.

fify :d

[pdofr]

	Quote:	marton
	On average cars assembled in UK have around half their components imported so there will be tariffs on these "British" built cars.

I don't know what the current situation is, but in the 70s and 80s, Ford were the largest importer of vehicles to the UK.

Granadas were made in Germany and at least some of the Escorts were made in Portugal or Spain.

	Quote:	marton
	fify :d

You'd like that now, wouldn't you?

[Odile]

In cartoon form if that helps:

https://twitter.com/SKZCartoons/stat...00596304863233

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	But I was talking about the drop in retail sales in 2017? What is the relevance of quoting historical 2015 and 2016 numbers? The UK is described as a consumer driven economy and this why why it is so serious when people reduce their spending. BTW, the poor retail sales figures I quoted for 2017 did include online sales. Source

To be fair, you're comparing a single calendar month rather than a calendar quarter or full year. This can be highly misleading, especially for March-May.

Generally speaking the more workdays in any given month the higher total retail spending, the number of Sundays and public holidays (Easter and Passover in these months) have a significant effect.

No idea how the dates for UK school holidays are determined, but if they can shift significantly from year to year that has a significant effect as well: When people are on holidays abroad they rarely generate retail revenues at home.

	Quote:	baboon
	Given that UK median household income is about £23,500 this means about 20% is being spent online. As much of that is discretionary spending (holidays, theatres, even the train tickets to a fair degree given that season tickets are still often done in person, at least outside of the TFL area) I find that quite a lot.

Caution, average =/= median

Spending and payment patterns may differ significantly for different income classes.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	pdofr
	I don't know what the current situation is, but in the 70s and 80s, Ford were the largest importer of vehicles to the UK. Granadas were made in Germany and at least some of the Escorts were made in Portugal or Spain.

Back in '82, my dad imported Fords from their Genk assembly plant in Belgium, took them to a place in the Stevenage/Letchworth area that converted them to righ hand drive for about £1k, and still made a decent profit on their sales.

[Jim2007]

Trump puts EU ahead of Britain in trade queue

Sorry partially behind a pay wall but:

	Quote:
	Britain has been pushed behind the European Union in the queue to strike a free-trade deal with the United States, officials in Washington have said. President Trump has softened his opposition to negotiating with the bloc as a whole after attempts by his officials to open talks with individual European nations were rebuffed.

Seriously they tried to negotiate with individual EU members - Nutters!

A better reference: Trump bumps Britain down the queue 'after Merkel lobbies for EU trade deal first'

	Quote:
	Ms Merkel's lobbying reportedly led to a "realisation" in Washington that a deal with the EU would benefit the US far more than one with the UK post-Brexit.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Trump puts EU ahead of Britain in trade queue Sorry partially behind a pay wall but: Seriously they tried to negotiate with individual EU members - Nutters! A better reference: Trump bumps Britain down the queue 'after Merkel lobbies for EU trade deal first'

What, like TTIP? LOL.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What, like TTIP? LOL.

So no deal is better than a bad deal with the EU, but a bad deal is better than no deal with the US! At the rate their are going I would not be at all surprised if the UK ends up in a customs union with the US and accepting less than full WTO membership as a result...

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What, like TTIP? LOL.

Yes TTIP is creeping along, one step after another.

	Quote:
	Commission adopts updated EU-US agreement on mutual recognition of inspections of medicine manufacturers

Source

[Odile]

Indeed- NHS next - sold to the USA who are of course so well known for their expertise in running a great Health Service for their people

Taking back control? What else is there to sell I wonder:

National Grid sells majority stake in UK gas infrastructure to Chinese and Qatari state investors

The network supplies 11 million homes with energy through 82,000 miles of pipeline – its sale will reignite concerns over foreign ownership of critical infrastructure.

All our essential supplies are owned and run by foreign firms, be they European or from all over- and often not the best known for caring for the 'people'!

Electricity, nuclear plants, rail, airports, water, gas, ports ... Yes, a fabulous way to 'take back control' ... of what? Empty and dangerous rhetoric.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	Odile
	How can I give you a list that doesn't exist? My question is- why promise has she and her party made during the Brexit campaign, which she/they have upheld? Single market - no Customs union - no Limit EU immigration - no No election until 2020 - no, etc, etc. You give a a list of promises made that have been kept so far?

Couple of quick points:

-- There were no "promises" made on deliverables because everything is subject to negotiations which haven't even started yet, never mind concluded.

-- There were certainly no promises made by "her party" as it was a free vote. Most prominent Tories campaigned to Remain, but there was no party line at all.

-- "Customs union" wasn't even mentioned in any of the campaigning, that I can recall. Certainly nothing that hit the headlines.

-- The EU have made it very clear that they are not going to allow the UK to remain in the single market, so it's pointless stating that this is an aim. They aim to get the best deal, as in any negotiation. If they allow us to keep some of the single market advantages, that would be nice, but it seems unlikely from what they've said.

-- There will be a limit on EU immigration, for sure, but again this has to be negotiated. Most likely is a normal non-EU model where you recruit from outside the country when the position cannot be filled locally at the going rate.

-- 2020 election date was nothing to do with the Brexit campaign. Labour forced her hand when they recently stated that they would vote against any deal in 2019 (by insisting on conditions they know are unachievable). It would need only 5 or 6 Tories to vote with the opposition, and this is likely as there are already that number who remain publicly opposed to the UK leaving. It's an open invitation for the EU side to drive an even worse bargain for the UK, as this will increase the chances of it being rejected in the Commons. If (and it's still an if) May is returned with a much bigger majority, then the pressure is greatly reduced.

As for promises kept, obviously Article 50 at end of March is the big one. Everything else is still pending the negotiations.