The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

Angela Merkel attacks British 'illusion' of keeping benefits of EU

“Countries with a third country status – and that’s what Great Britain will be – cannot and will not have the same or even more rights as a member of the European Union. All 27 member states and the European institutions agree on this.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...benefits-of-eu

FAir enough, I'd say. Either you're in -or you are not.

As for the 'they need us more than we need them- proof will indeed be in the pudding. Personally i think they will be quiet happy to buy from each other and support each other and forget all about the UK and let it drift to the North Pole, without a paddle.

Au revoir, Auf Wiedersehen Pet ...

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	EU trade commissioner says bloc will do post-Brexit free trade deal with UK 'for sure'

But surely this is not new?

The EU always said they would negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with UK; the only question was when?

May wanted to start the FTA talks in parallel with Brexit but the EU always said no; only later after the Brexit terms are agreed.
Quote from this link "Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU Commissioner for Trade, has now said the bloc will reach a free trade agreement with the UK after its divorce from Brussels."

So nothing new? Or did I miss something?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	But surely this is not new?

Of course it is nothing new, but they have to sell papers....

Even if they do not do an agreement, so long as the EU does not veto the UK membership application, then they will get to trade on WTO most favoured nation terms in any case.

The big question is what such an agreement will cover. If the UK insists that it has maximum freedom to negotiate within the WTO, then it will be a very limited agreement based some how on most favoured nation rules.

Oh who cares, stop whingeing

https://www.facebook.com/TRTP2/videos/802944466531142/


Seems tides are turning- more and more people realise Brexit was not a good idea at all. Mutti has told Theresa that the EU is actually, surprise, not going to bend over backwards ot help the UK keep the advantages of being in the EU with actually being in it- and Theresa is calling foul play and 'oh this is so unfair they are ganging up on us'. And BoJo today said that if the USA, aka Trump, asks for military support against Asad, we would be unable to refuse and that it the decision would probably by-pass Parliament altogether.

Gina Miller is putting together the tactical voting plan, with the support of Branson - and the Tories are complaining like crazy about it being undemocratic ...
Schools are writing to parents asking for financial support to keep kids' education afloat, and the NHS is at breaking point- with a 90% fall in applications for key jobs from the EU or other countries, and EU and other foreign staff leaving in droves. And Prêt à Manger is trying to recruit OAPs to serve coffee.
Farcical in the extreme - you just couldn't make it up ...Oh I forgot, today Mrs May refused to say that Pensions would not be reduced - in a very clear question in the Commons- in a way that clearly indicated that this is indeed their intention.

And BoJo's sister has joined the Lib Dems to fight Brexit. Just another day ...

Seems that the good news is, soon my older daughter, and other favourite nieces all linked to financial services in the City will soon be much closer to visit. Ah well.

[SOBEIT]

Are they?

[marton]

It is claimed that one of the agenda items in Saturday's EU 27 meeting is to confirm that in the event of a vote to reunite Ireland then the united Ireland would be fully accepted in the EU!

Well we will know if this claim is true in just a couple of days!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	It is claimed that one of the agenda items in Saturday's EU 27 meeting is to confirm that in the event of a vote to reunite Ireland then the united Ireland would be fully accepted in the EU! Well we will know if this claim is true in just a couple of days!

My understanding from the Irish media over the past several months is that it is and is seen as a way to cement in the GFA since the EU backed the GFA from the outset. Not sure why it is only coming to light now in the U.K., after all was it not the same for Germany?

Would be good if Ireland can reunite. Then Ireland and the EU can toss a coin to see who takes on the massive Welfare costs

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Would be good if Ireland can reunite. Then Ireland and the EU can toss a coin to see who takes on the massive Welfare costs

The problem with republicans in NI is that they assume Ireland will happily carry the cost, while ignoring the fact that the Irish government can't get people to pay for water charges never mind a united Ireland.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	It is claimed that one of the agenda items in Saturday's EU 27 meeting is to confirm that in the event of a vote to reunite Ireland then the united Ireland would be fully accepted in the EU! Well we will know if this claim is true in just a couple of days!

So Spain takes Gibraltar, Ireland takes NI and what's left of the UK has to pay about 60 Billion to the EU.

It's a bit like the Versailles agreement of 1919
Ironically, leaving the EU would be exactly 100 years later

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Would be good if Ireland can reunite. Then Ireland and the EU can toss a coin to see who takes on the massive Welfare costs

I suppose they need to balance the extra welfare costs against the additional costs of having a hard border; I did a quick google but did not find such a calculation from a reputable source.

And yes it would follow the German example of unification.

	Quote:	marton
	And yes it would follow the German example of unification.

What, the example where Ireland sends billions north of the border whilst pretty much the entire country empties south?

Rather how the EU works actually.

[Blueangel]

Was at a family dinner in Athens last night when a South African member asked me if I was pro-Brexit I looked at the younger members of the family, who are British, Portuguese and Greek passport holders, and all resident in the UK, then said "Hell no!" The South African was stunned because she's read a lot of 'UK media', but the rest of us laughed.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Was at a family dinner in Athens last night when a South African member asked me if I was pro-Brexit I looked at the younger members of the family, who are British, Portuguese and Greek passport holders, and all resident in the UK, then said "Hell no!" The South African was stunned because she's read a lot of 'UK media', but the rest of us laughed.

Great story.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Even if they do not do an agreement, so long as the EU does not veto the UK membership application, then they will get to trade on WTO most favoured nation terms in any case.

According to WTO chief Azevedo the UK is and will remain member of the WTO. Just the coming terms of trade with many countries are unclear. He says that whether the UK can keep using the EU terms (inherit them, if you will) depends on the arrangement reached with the EU.

	Quote:
	Oh I forgot, today Mrs May refused to say that Pensions would not be reduced - in a very clear question in the Commons- in a way that clearly indicated that this is indeed their intention.

So inflation is rising (caused at least in part by the falling pound) to an extent that is clearly above what's considered intended and healthy, increased VAT (read: another boost to inflation), reduced pensions. Wage growth is falling, it's below inflation now. May's intent, or at least threat, is to make the UK a corporate tax haven which will of course force additional cuts. Cuts to school budgets that are too small already.

Mhh, guess I better stop with the fearmongering. After all Brexit is a huge plus, you just have to believe it.

PS:
Who said recently that the EU would of course welcome the UK back if it decided to cancel article 50? Mind the wording: Welcome back can well mean enter anew, i.e. with conditions to be renegotiated - which would probably mean "byebye preferential treatment for the UK".

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	According to WTO chief Azevedo the UK is and will remain member of the WTO. Just the coming terms of trade with many countries are unclear. He says that whether the UK can keep using the EU terms (inherit them, if you will) depends on the arrangement reached with the EU.

The UK can be considered to be a WTO member as is Turkey etc... but they don't have full privileges. That is why the UK is preparing their papers for a submission after they reach agreement on terms with the EU. And assuming that none of the 127 veto it. Then the basically end up back where they started, with the exception that they might be able to initiate some trade deals.

In the end of the day though it is not going to speed up the trade process... you are still going to have to grant the others most favour nation status and get sign off.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	PS: Who said recently that the EU would of course welcome the UK back if it decided to cancel article 50? Mind the wording: Welcome back can well mean enter anew, i.e. with conditions to be renegotiated - which would probably mean "byebye preferential treatment for the UK".

I think you are talking about Antonio Tajani, i think he's Italy's answer to Boris J - talks out of turn and seems to be a bit hazy on the treaty provisions....

At this stage there is no way to reliably reverse A50. If for instance the Commission, the Council and the parliament were to agree that the UK could withdraw their notice, it would still be open any individual citizen to take an action to the ECJ and I'd say it is almost certain someone somewhere in the EU would do so.

[lewton]

When is Gina Millaer launching the tactical voting website?
Sounds a very interesting concept.

[Sbrinz]

The view from Berne,

http://www.derbund.ch/ausland/europa...story/21872703

It was more than a show. Shortly before the start of the negotiations with the British, the other 27 member states closed the fronts. At the first formal summit without Theresa May, the heads of state and government of the rest of the EU adopted the guidelines for the talks about the imminent divorce in record time.

Thus, the EU takes its position before the Brexit negotiations. (Source: Reuters)
Chief negotiator Michel Barnier now has a strong mandate when negotiations are to start in June after the early British elections. EU summit stands for strife, tensions and drama. Rarely has Merkel and Co in Brussels been so harmoniously experienced. If not everything is wrong, the Brexit has welded the other 27 heads of state and government together.

The Brexit has welded the other 27 states together.
This is first of all a bad news for the British Prime Minister Theresa May. She should have been able to divide the European partners quickly. It is now clear that negotiations on the future relationship between Great Britain and the EU will only take place if the divorce procedures have been clarified to some extent.

No general declarations of intent
The Heads of State and Government insist that the rights and status of the 3.2 million EU citizens in the UK are secured. This is also true for the 1.2 million British people living in different EU countries. The rest of the EU does not want to be satisfied with general declarations of intent, but pounds on reliable guarantees on questions such as access to the health care system, the labor market or family reunion.

It is about the life prospects of workers, families, students, who have been unsettled since the British's Brexit vote. Before talking about the future, the heads of state and government also want the British to be financially committed to 44 years of club membership. The focus is on long-term commitments, which have been jointly entered into by all 28 Member States and from which the British can not simply withdraw. The speech is based on a financial statement in the amount of 60 billion euros.

The clock is ticking
May would have liked it differently. They planned parallel negotiations on the withdrawal and the future relationship. Finally, the clock ticks, and the time is not on the side of the British. The separation must be regulated by 29 March 2019 at the latest. Otherwise Britain will be a common third country without day-to-day access to the EU's single market. In parallel discussions about separation and future relations, the British expected better chances of dividing the European partners quickly. Because when it comes to the future relationship, there are also different interests among the 27 EU countries.

Theresa May would have liked it differently.
But this is probably one of the many miscalculations in the camp of the Brexit government in London. From a divided EU, Prime Minister Theresa May would not have much, as yesterday, the participants at the Special Summit reihum emphasized. It was not a matter of punishing the British, and the demonstration of unity was not directed against London. The EU's closeness is also in the interest of the government in London. After all, a deal on the future partnership between the UK and the rest of the EU would have to be approved by all Member States anyway. In a disputed EU, there would be no deal for the British.

Bad cards for the British
Without the meeting of the EU 27, it was clearer than ever how bad the cards of the British will be in this negotiating poker game. The London government appears ill-prepared, ill-based and underestimates the legal and practical challenges of divorce. What happens to court proceedings at the European Court of Justice, which are still pending on the day of the withdrawal? How to deal with products from the mainland, which are on the day of leaving the EU in British stores? And what happens to the fragile peace agreement in Northern Ireland, which the EU once negotiated?

There was much talk of the illusions of the British
The EU 27 wants to commit itself that there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. The Dublin government was assured in a supplementary statement that Northern Ireland could remain part of the EU in the event of reunification. There was much talk at the summit of the "illusions" of the British government. Also as an echo of a visit by Jean-Claude Juncker last Wednesday to Theresa May, of which the President of the Commission has returned. The British Government was in a state of denial.

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	And what happens to the fragile peace agreement in Northern Ireland, which the EU once negotiated?

Is history also being rewritten now?