The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Is history also being rewritten now?

Do not overlook the European Union's peace investment, worth 724 million euros.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Is history also being rewritten now?

No, but I suppose the border will have to go back up. You don't want those pesky Europeans getting unchecked entry.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	No, but I suppose the border will have to go back up. You don't want those pesky Europeans getting unchecked entry.

I think so too. On the other hand at the rate passport applications are going, there will be very few people left in NI that don't have two passports! So checks on the Irish side will be a bit weird...

[marton]

	Quote:
	No, but I suppose the border will have to go back up. You don't want those pesky Europeans getting unchecked entry.

Without a hard border it will become a smugglers paradise with the new high tariffs to avoid.

Guess the realities of a Brexit shaped budget hole are starting to become apparent.

Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Guess the realities of a Brexit shaped budget hole are starting to become apparent. Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn

You have to sign up to view that link, says "Subscribe to read".

	Quote:	Chuff
	You have to sign up to view that link, says "Subscribe to read".

Here it is:

Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn

France and Germany back tougher approach to Britain’s departure obligations





The EU has raised its opening demand for Britain’s Brexit bill to an upfront gross payment of up to €100bn, according to Financial Times analysis of new stricter demands driven by France and Germany.

Although over coming decades Britain’s net bill would be lower than the €100bn upfront settlement, the more stringent approach to Britain’s outstanding obligations significantly increases the estimated €60bn charge mentioned by Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president.

It also reflects the steadily hardening position of many EU member states, which have abandoned early reservations about the bill’s political risks to pile on demands that will help to plug a Brexit-related hole in the bloc’s common budget.

Paris and Warsaw have pushed for the inclusion of post-Brexit annual farm payments, while Berlin is against granting Britain a share of EU assets.

Estimates of Britain’s Brexit bill are highly variable because they include assumptions on Britain’s exit date, its proper share of contributions, UK receipts such as its budget rebate or EU investment spending, and the type of liabilities it is expected to honour. European diplomats consider this flexibility as helpful in reaching a deal.

The hefty bill represents one of the biggest early obstacles to a smooth Brexit. To the alarm of the EU side, Theresa May bluntly rejected the notion of an exit bill at a recent dinner with Mr Juncker, saying any financial terms would be tied to securing a trade deal by 2019. On Tuesday, she promised to be a “bloody difficult woman” in talks.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has said no figure will be set until the end of the Brexit process and payments could be staggered. But he wants Britain to agree a methodology before trade talks can begin, including a definition of EU liabilities the UK would be expected to share. He will unveil a draft negotiating mandate — including the Brexit bill assumptions — on Wednesday.

€82bn-€109bn
Bruegel think-tank estimates of the upfront payment Britain would need to make
As well as adding €10bn-€15bn of mainly farm- related payments, the commission’s tougher approach denies London a share of assets such as buildings. Significantly, it requires upfront payment for contingent guarantees and loans to countries such as Ukraine and Portugal, with Britain being reimbursed as the loans are repaid.

According to FT calculations, this brings the upfront gross settlement demand to approximately €91bn-€113bn, depending on how Britain’s share is calculated. Over a period of a decade or more, this would be reduced in net terms to roughly €55bn-€75bn as Britain received its share of EU spending and repaid EU loans.

Using similar assumptions, the Bruegel think-tank estimates that Britain would make an upfront payment of €82bn-€109bn, which would net out to €42bn-€65bn over the long term. Compared with the FT and some commission officials, Bruegel uses a higher estimate of expected EU spending in the UK and a lower estimate of net pension liabilities.

Zvolt Darvas, a senior fellow at Bruegel, said the EU’s latest approach clearly represented “the most extensive possible liabilities for the net bill”.

“It requires the UK to make a large upfront payment that is even bigger than the long- term net bill,” he added.

The commission has never published its preferred methodology. But in early discussions with member states it took a more conservative view of UK liabilities. The FT previously calculated the figure to be €40bn-€60bn in net terms — a number that corresponds to Mr Barnier’s informal estimates shared with member states.

This gave Britain a share of EU assets such as buildings, and included only what it sees as legally binding commitments to investment programmes — such as infrastructure projects in eastern Europe — running over multiple years.

However, during recent private deliberations, France and Poland insisted that EU liabilities worth €183bn, covering annual farm subsidies and administrative costs, should also be added to the tally.

Diplomats say this is reflected in the EU’s negotiating guidelines, which refer to “a single financial settlement including issues resulting from the MFF [the EU’s long-term budget]”. Greece asked that the UK also honour political commitments it made to fund refugee programmes in Turkey.

At the request of France, Germany and several other member states, the commission also abandoned its initial plans to offer the UK a share of assets, worth between €3bn and €9bn, depending on the definition used.

On the issue of contingent liabilities, Mr Barnier’s negotiating mandate is expected to require upfront payment to cover loans or guarantees, which will be “returned in accordance with the maturity of the underlying loans”.

The European Investment Bank is excluded from the FT calculations. However, the EU is insisting Britain would have a claim only on its paid-in capital, rather than a share of the bank’s €63.5bn in own funds that Britain will demand.

[Chuff]

Wow, they are really trying it on now... no way should Britain be strong-armed and pay that.

[yacek]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn

Brexis is meant as a lesson for other EU member states. But this attitude clearly shows that Brexit is long overdue - should have happened before it was so disruptive.
Euro currency adoption is a ratchet mechanism that makes leaving EU impossible, even when facing war-like recession. UK citizens should thank their politicians for avoiding it.
I wonder if any other considerable-size country ever adopts the euro currency after the Greek and Brexit lessons.

[marton]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Wow, they are really trying it on now... no way should Britain be strong-armed and pay that.

Divorces are always more expensive than one thinks.
It was always naive to think we could walk away free; nevertheless I hope the UK negotiators can achieve a good solution.

So it will be some long time before the NHS see their 350M per week

	Quote:	yacek
	Brexis is meant as a lesson for other EU member states. But this attitude clearly shows that Brexit is long overdue - should have happened before it was so disruptive. Euro currency adoption is a ratchet mechanism that makes leaving EU impossible, even when facing war-like recession. UK citizens should thank their politicians for avoiding it. I wonder if any other considerable-size country ever adopts the euro currency after the Greek and Brexit lessons.

Post Greece - Estonia in 2011, Latvia in 2014 and Lithuania in 2015. 6 million people between them so not exactly insignificant.

[marton]

	Quote:	yacek
	Brexis is meant as a lesson for other EU member states. But this attitude clearly shows that Brexit is long overdue - should have happened before it was so disruptive. Euro currency adoption is a ratchet mechanism that makes leaving EU impossible, even when facing war-like recession. UK citizens should thank their politicians for avoiding it. I wonder if any other considerable-size country ever adopts the euro currency after the Greek and Brexit lessons.

The basic problem for Greece was that they borrowed money they could not afford to pay back plus they used the money to fund a too generous social structure that was not sustainable.

The euro was not a primary cause.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	marton
	Divorces are always more expensive than one thinks. It was always naive to think we could walk away free; nevertheless I hope the UK negotiators can achieve a good solution. So it will be some long time before the NHS see their 350M per week

The figures seem arbitrary and designed to shock and intimidate, rather than have real legitimate basis. While that may also seem similar to a divorce, I think in the end this strategy may instead work against the EU, as for all their bluster and scaremongering the UK is still a strategically significant ally. https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...ty-cooperation

	Quote:
	"The UK is arguably the EU’s strongest defence power. It is one of only two member states possessing ‘full-spectrum’ military capabilities (including a nuclear deterrent) and one of only five spending 2% of GDP on defence. It also holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and has the largest military budget within the EU"

I predict that Jean Claude Drunkard is going to end up with no friends by the time this Brexit is done, because I cannot see Germany and France standing by him while he continues to embarass himself so childishly in public. The man was never designed to hold a seat of such power, he is the Sepp Blatter of the EU and needs to go asap so that grown adults can handle the negotiations.

[rainer_d]

See this article:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...a-1145648.html

	Quote:	marton
	Divorces are always more expensive than one thinks. It was always naive to think we could walk away free; nevertheless I hope the UK negotiators can achieve a good solution. So it will be some long time before the NHS see their 350M per week

Can you imagine if it was a net receiver from the EU budget that was leaving? Do you think they would be lumped with a huge bill?

The UK should pay what is legally owed. Likewise, the UK should be entitled to their share of EU assets. Anything else shouldn't enter into negotiations.

	Quote:	rainer_d
	See this article: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...a-1145648.html

With leaks like this, which incidentally came from the Junkers side, there will never be an environment for constructive talks.

	Quote:	marton
	Divorces are always more expensive than one thinks. It was always naive to think we could walk away free; nevertheless I hope the UK negotiators can achieve a good solution. So it will be some long time before the NHS see their 350M per week

Indeed, here is a document that helps understand the issues around that 'divorce' settlement:

https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default...ill_3feb17.pdf

We all know that if you want to quit your Gym membership early, or a car lease, or loan, or mortgage- there are penalties to pay. This needs of course to be clear from the start of the contract - it was.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	The basic problem for Greece was that they borrowed money they could not afford to pay back plus they used the money to fund a too generous social structure that was not sustainable. The euro was not a primary cause.

Without the Euro they could have balanced that, at least short-termish, by firing up the printing presses and printing their way out of debt, as they did so often in the past.

They failed to understand that having a stable currency comes with duties as well as priviledges.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Can you imagine if it was a net receiver from the EU budget that was leaving? Do you think they would be lumped with a huge bill? The UK should pay what is legally owed.

Yes

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Likewise, the UK should be entitled to their share of EU assets.

I believe that is called Britain. I believe Nigel Farage has been stockpiling stationary too, so really, it is a big win for the UK.

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Guess the realities of a Brexit shaped budget hole are starting to become apparent. Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn

Watching the TV news channels today, the impression I get is that the Financial Times journalist dreamt up the possibility that Poland and France will force the UK to pay for their farm subsidies over the next 10 years.

FAKE NEWS! (More from the British press, that profits from selling lies)

Nothing of the sort has come out of Brussels, in fact Davies, the UK minister for Brexit, has stated today they still have no figures at all. The EU will indeed present a bill to the UK, which Brussels insists the UK must pay. But how much, and when, has not been announced.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Is history also being rewritten now?

The EU invented the Internet, and not only will they insist on making the UK pay for it, but the UK won't have any internet post Brexit.